Community Pitching Prospect #19
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 29, 2025 4:25 PM EST
Email
PrintWith 32.3% of the open vote and 52.6% in the runoff, Martin Perez is elected Community Pitching Prospect #18.
*
RESULTS:
Martin Perez: 32.3% (52.6% In Runoff)
Robbie Erlin: 29.0% (47.4% In Runoff)
Zack Wheeler: 17.7%%
Matt Harvey: 9.7% (write in)
Arodys Vizcaino: 3.2%
Nestor Molina: 3.2%
A.J. Cole: 1.6%
Drew Hutchison: 1.6%
Trevor May: 1.6% (write in)
Mike Montgomery: 0%
Keyvius Sampson: 0%
Garrett Richards: 0%
*
CANDIDATES: Robbie Erlin, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Tyrell Jenkins, Trevor May, Brad Peacock, Sonny Gray, Manny Banuelos, Jarred Cosart, Matt Barnes
*
IN ROTATION: Jake Odorizzi (#17-0%), Taylor Jungmann (#17-0%), Jed Bradley (#17-0%), Arodys Vizcaino (#18-3.2%), Nestor Molina (#18-3.2%), A.J. Cole (#18-1.6%), Drew Hutchison (#18-1.6%), Mike Montgomery (#18-0%), Keyvius Sampson (#18-0%), Garrett Richards (#18-0%)
*
TESTERS: Casey Kelly, Joe Wieland, Noah Syndergaard, Chad Bettis, Jose Campos, Zach Lee, Wily Peralta, Dellin Betances, Justin Nicolino
*
#01 - MATT MOORE - 91.0%
#02 - JULIO TEHERAN - 57.3%
#03 - SHELBY MILLER - 66.7%
#04 - TREVOR BAUER - 40.0%
#05 - TYLER SKAGGS - 30.0%
#06 - GERRIT COLE - 24.3% (65.2% In Runoff)
#07 - JAMESON TAILLON - 26.0% (34.7 In 3-Way Runoff, 51.2% In 2-Way Runoff)
#08 - DYLAN BUNDY - 39.3%
#09 - DANNY HULTZEN - 45.6%
#10 - TAIJUAN WALKER - 31.6% (51.5% In Runoff)
#11 - DREW POMERANZ - 34.2%
#12 - JACOB TURNER - 45.7%
#13 - JARROD PARKER - 44.4%
#14 - JAMES PAXTON - 24.6% (51.6% In Runoff)
#15 - CARLOS MARTINEZ - 48.0%
#16 - RANDALL DELGADO - 28.6%
#17 - ARCHIE BRADLEY - 33.3%
#18 - MARTIN PEREZ - 32.3% (52.6% In Runoff)
*
120 comments
|
Add comment
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
+1
"We did a lot of good things last year, and now we've got Julio ... That does nothing but improve the offense, and we expect to do better. That's our goal, to lead the NFL in everything. Every offensive category." -Roddy White
by Beachy Keen on Nov 29, 2025 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Nov 29, 2025 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
10th
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 29, 2025 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"Hey Laserlips. Your mama was a snowblower."
by AirmanSD on Nov 30, 2025 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2025 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
+1
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
by PHGold09 on Nov 29, 2025 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Nov 29, 2025 9:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Nov 29, 2025 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Visit Bullpen Banter's Brand New Baseball Forum: THE PEN!
- - - - - - - -
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Twitter:@Bullpen Banter
Twitter:@JDSussman
by JD Sussman on Nov 29, 2025 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
+1
I don't always like to tweet, but when I do it's @HouseOfTheBB
And when more than 140 characters are needed, I write at HouseOfTheBluebird.com
by Bluebirdz on Nov 29, 2025 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."
by BenMc5 on Nov 30, 2025 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.
by casejud on Nov 29, 2025 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
OTHERS (Post Player Name And Reply +1 To Officially Vote For Non-Listed Players)
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 29, 2025 4:27 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
AJ Cole
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 29, 2025 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 29, 2025 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 29, 2025 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
+1
looked awfully dominant at times this year …
by toonsterwu on Nov 29, 2025 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
TESTERS (New Suggestions Or Favorites From Current Tester List)
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 29, 2025 4:27 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Casey Kelly
Interesting that a guy who was practically a ‘consensus’ Top 40 overall player last offseason, might have a difficult time cracking the Top 40 pitchers list here. It’s funny because his peformance line was really just more of the same (if not some mild improvement/growth) & not anything akin to a step backwards (to me at least).
Just a case of a guy being overvalued initially & a long overdue correction of sorts or something different?
by Matt0330 on Nov 29, 2025 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Well he's 5th on my waiting list
Harvey
Wheeler
Erlin
AJ Cole
Kelly
(Then some combo of Odorizzi, Banuelos, Barnes, and Jed Bradley)
by gore51 on Nov 29, 2025 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'd venture I'll have Kelly higher than some folks too (although not that high)
I just think it’s quite a sea change from the 2010 offseason for him in terms of perception.
by Matt0330 on Nov 29, 2025 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Still a big Casey Kelly fan. With a fastball that is improving to the point of him reaching the mid-90’s with some frequency, I think he’s one to improve going forward. He did get much better results in his go this year at AA compared to last year:
2010 - .307/.365/.487 (384 AB)
2011 - .278/.334/.392 (550 AB)
His upside isn’t a top-10 pitcher in the world, and with a 3m price tag out of high school, expectaions are as big as the bonus. Think he could have a Derek Lowe type career, as another big groundball pitcher. That said, Derek Lowe has always been a high 80’s avg FB guy, so perhaps that ends up selling Kelly short. Kelly not only will get to pitch in a great pitchers park, but being a groundball artist should further assist when he is away from home.
The minors in general seem pretty stacked in pitching talent at this current time, and last years draft was loaded in it so that is not surprising. I think that plays a part in him treading down the lists a decent amount despite the improved go at AA, though Sickels had him as the 40th best pitching prospect, which wasn’t terribly high praise. Really curious how the Padres handle their AA depth going into next year with Kelly being the most interesting of all. It’s Tucson, a three-peat in AA or SD, not sure which is most likely
by Amish_Willy on Nov 29, 2025 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
Kelly
Will be the next guy added from the tester pool.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 29, 2025 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
Kelly's groundball rates aren't even in the same league as Lowe's
I just don’t see that comparison at all. And if Kelly ends up having Lowe’s career that would be a huge win for the Padres. How many guys from this class do you realistically think will throw 2500+ innings with a well above average?
by nixa37 on Nov 29, 2025 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
I have him coming up, next 3-4 or so, as well
by PrincetonCubs on Nov 29, 2025 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
Kelly
incredibly overvalued last year
and finally the market is adjusting
by blue bulldog on Nov 29, 2025 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
a little of both, I imagine
He’s been pushed very hard, not dissimilar from the Martin Perez situation. He’s taking some time to learn how to pitch against quality competition, and to unlearn some bad habits. His command hasn’t quite firmed up yet, in part because his stuff has gotten better every year - he’s gone from 88-90 as a teenager to the mid-90s now.
Was he overvalued early on? Probably a little . . .he’s not quite the pitching prodigy he was made out to be. At the same time, from a physical projection standpoint, he’s almost certainly exceeded expectations. The stuff is clearly frontline starter caliber, and now that he’s getting some real innings, I’m expecting a breakthrough to come before too much longer. He very much seems like a guy who is going to see a major course correction in perception once people actually get to see him in the flesh.
by mrkupe on Nov 30, 2025 7:25 AM EST up reply actions
i think
it’s also the fact that he’s no longer in the Red Sox system
by blue bulldog on Nov 30, 2025 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
probably, but I don't think we should overestimate that effect in this case
He pitched VERY well his first season.
by mrkupe on Nov 30, 2025 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
not really
if you look at strikeout rates
by blue bulldog on Dec 1, 2025 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
My next 10 names
AJ Cole-I prefer him to the last five names that have made it onto the poll. Serious upside here, only fell due to bonus demands. Overlooked IMO.
Jake Odorizzi-Personal favorite of mine, #2 upside floor of a late inning arm.
Mike Montgomery-Struggled with walks early but turned it around the last couple of months. Big upside here still.
Matt Harvey-Might be underrating him here, #2 upside. Wouldn’t quibble much with him going ahead of Odorizzi or Montgomery, they’re all close.
Chad Bettis-Love the K’s, wish he had seen better competition but I like what he offers.
Garrett Richards-Probably a little high on him when you look at the results, but I think there is more here than he’s shown so far.
Manny Banuelos-Still questions about command/control and durability, but the talent is hard to ignore. Could be a closer if he can’t handle the workload as a starter.
Zack Wheeler-High ceiling, still a lot to work on though. Walks need to come down but has that TOR ceiling.
Arodys Vizcaino-I think he’s a reliever but will be a very good one, won’t rule out starting entirely(putting him here hedges my bets).
Tyrell Jenkins-Very good stuff, just needs innings. Could be next year’s Taijuan Walker.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 29, 2025 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Peacock
Has all the talent Banuelos has and, actually takes the mound a lot.
"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.
by casejud on Nov 29, 2025 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
I don't their stuff grades out the same at all
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 29, 2025 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
Brad Peacock
Really odd that he has been as ignored as he has thus far, relatively speaking. I can see it because of the absolute ob-ses-sion on this site with babib, as if giving up 98 hits in 156 Innings in the upper minors uis a bad thing. The other knock agaianst him is (I suppose) is that he jumped way forward this season after being mediocre results before. but, lots of pitchers figure things out as they, you know, pitch.
Here is the thing for me though - we talk a lot here about safeness or developmental stages of pitchers and we are looking at a kid who has thrown 140+ innings for three straight years! Then K’d 11 perniune in the third one and, will be in a big league rotion in the fourth, 2012. His stuff is not lacking either, is it? He’s underrated
"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.
by casejud on Nov 29, 2025 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Has someone made the BABIP argument against Peacock?
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 29, 2025 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
You're right. He is a good pitcher.
Some of the choices here are head scratchers to me
Visit Bullpen Banter's Brand New Baseball Forum: THE PEN!
- - - - - - - -
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Twitter:@Bullpen Banter
Twitter:@JDSussman
by JD Sussman on Nov 29, 2025 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Isn’t the scouting report on Peacock that he’s got a great fastball but not much else(at least nothing else above average)?
I don’t know much about him, just remember reading that in a couple scouting reports.
by The_Bunk on Nov 29, 2025 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
I was under the impression that his breaking ball is well above-average
by mrkupe on Nov 30, 2025 7:27 AM EST up reply actions
it is
CH is crap though
Visit Bullpen Banter's Brand New Baseball Forum: THE PEN!
- - - - - - - -
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.
Twitter:@Bullpen Banter
Twitter:@JDSussman
by JD Sussman on Nov 30, 2025 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
I think all the talk of possible future reliever is scarrying some people off...
If it was a guarnantee Peacock would be a SP for his MLB career, i think the consensus on him even in this community, would be in the 15-18 range for pitchers, probably mid to late 30’s overall… or higher
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 30, 2025 6:00 AM EST up reply actions
Erlin
is so underrated here, people love tools so much that ERlin who posted crazy numbers is not ahead of Martin Perez who put up lousy ones. Just because he changed teams means he gets dropped down?
by Bososx13 on Nov 29, 2025 7:20 PM EST reply actions
In that he’s not the best pitcher in his own system, but he’s the only one getting votes here, I’m not sure how underrated you should claim he is.
I really can’t believe how much the entire community is sleeping on Keyvius Sampson.
by realitypolice on Nov 30, 2025 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
makes more sense when you consider the level of guys on here
only a handful have no experience beyond A ball(not counting guys like Cole and Hultzen who will likely start in AA), which is where Sampson falls.
I personally don’t like the idea of ranking HS arms with zero pro data higher than other elite arms, but hey, I’m just one vote.
by walnut falcons on Nov 30, 2025 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
haven't forgotten him, just VERY skeptical that he's really going to be able to handle a starter's workload
by mrkupe on Nov 30, 2025 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Based on what?
Do you mean physically? He’s nearly three inches taller and 20+ pounds of muscle bigger than when he signed and the elbow issues of 2010 have been ruled out as neurological. Is there a chance he’ll need TJ at some point? Sure… because he’s a pitcher.
The club was VERY cautious with him this year, given the scare last year, but I don’t think being protective of a guy in his first year of full-season ball is predictive of future challenges with workload.
If you mean that in terms of pitch mix, the change is now at least an MLB average pitch and his ability to throw two different curves gives him plenty of arsenal to stay in the rotation.
by realitypolice on Dec 1, 2025 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
My next 10
1. Robbie Erlin
Crazy numbers almost guaranteed to be a 3 starter, I think he’s a #2 though.
2. Brad Peacock
why is this guy so underrated? He put up a crazy 1.98 SIERA at AA, and people doubt his stuff for no apparent reason. Doing a pitch F/x scouting report on him, My claim about his stuff is backed up by the fact that his curveball had 2 inches more of movement than the average pitcher in his time in the majors. He also hit the high 90s a couple times. Trackman did some research that curveballs that spin more are much harder to hit. Justin Verlander is the MLB qualified leader in curveball spin with 1758 RPM, Peacock’s curveball RPM is 1783.
3. Jake Odorizzi
Had great stats in A+ and has good scouting reports. Slowed down in AA but was young for the level.
4. Zack Wheeler
Crazy scouting reports and strikeouts needs to work on walks but has improved since traded.
5. Tyrell Jenkins
This is my sleeper of the year. He consistently gets up to 96 and has a hammer curve. Is really athletic which I love in pitchers. Very young, next year he’ll be very high on the top 100 prospects list.
6. Arodys Vizcaino
Great stuff and has pitched well and is close to the majors but could be moved to the bullpen.
7. A.J. Cole
Tremendous stuff and dominated Low A. But is very far away from the majors, could get injured and has a very low floor, not because of him specifically but because all 18-19 year old pitchers are more likely to get serious injuries.
8. mike Montgomery
Great stuff but bad results. these aren’t the kind of players I usually like.
9. Matt Harvey
I probably have him too low mid 90s fastball and great slider.
10. Keyvious Sampson
Great scouting reports and stats but like Cole, far away from majors.
Manny Banuelos is the most hyped prospect I’ve ever seen, of the BP mid season top 50 only Jared Cosart had a higher SIERA relative to league and Jared Cosart should not be anywhere where we are now.
by Bososx13 on Nov 29, 2025 7:58 PM EST reply actions
There's more to a good curve than spin rate
And I’ll just throw this out there (obviously small sample size), but Peacock got all of 2 swinging strikes on the 26 curves he threw. Sometimes, too much movement on a curve (especially a slow one like Peacock’s) is a bad thing because it leads to a noticeable “hump,” making it easier for hitters to pick up and adjust too. Look at Tommy Hanson this year. He actually took some spin off of his curve this year, yet got way more swing and misses with it.
by nixa37 on Nov 29, 2025 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
Harvey, Cole, Odorizzi, Peacock, Erlin, Vizcaino, and Jenkins are in my next ten.
Sampson is a bit lower, and Montgomery is quite a bit lower for me.
I have Banuelos and Syndergaard in my next ten, which you do not have.
You mention Manny being hyped, but I think he is comfortably above Montgomery.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 29, 2025 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
Manny and Monty
seem like similar-classed prospects to me
hyped up lefties with presumably good stuff who had terrible results this year
there was a report out a couple of months ago that said Manny’s stuff was down this year compared to last year though, and i don’t recall reading something like that about Monty
by blue bulldog on Nov 29, 2025 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I agree with that
but I think Monty has better stuff and he had better SIERA relative to league. That’s why he’s a little higher
by Bososx13 on Nov 29, 2025 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
AJ Cole, Matt Harvey, and probably Peacock or Banuelos next for me
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 30, 2025 6:03 AM EST reply actions
Vizcaino
Seems to be getting treated very harshly, given the quality of stuff, and that he has already succeeded at a relatively advanced level. The injury issue seems to be overblown, given that he pitched virtually a full season last year as well.
by A Behemoth on Nov 30, 2025 6:41 AM EST reply actions
agreed, with a caveat
If you go down the list of players already on the list and the candidates, you see a lot of guys who don’t quite have his stuff and whose optimal development course looks awfully similar to what Vizcaino has already done.
Durability is still a question though. He might have pitched almost 120 innings this year, but there’s a big difference between that number and the 170-200 year-in/year-out he’ll be expected to handle as a starting pitcher. Does he project to be capable of that heavier workload? I’m unconvinced, and it’s the major thing that gives me pause.
by mrkupe on Nov 30, 2025 7:35 AM EST up reply actions
Voting Closed
We are going to runoff Erlin and Wheeler.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 30, 2025 4:41 PM EST reply actions
Something to say? Choose one of these options to log in.
- » Create a new SB Nation account
- » Already registered with SB Nation? Log in!
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
- Start posting on Minor League Ball
- Minor League Ball on Facebook
- Follow @MinorLeagueBall
- Follow Minor League Ball on your iPhone!
- Subscribe to Minor League Ball Stories
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
Bobby Valentine: The Opposite Of Heart-Broken
Heath Bell Actively Sought By Blue Jays, Marlins, Other Team
MLB Free-Agent Contract Prediction: Carlos Peña
More from Baseball Nation >
Certain photos copyright © 2011 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
