Community Positional Prospect Discussion (#21-25)

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 12:12 PM EST

This thread is for on-going discussions about the next few positional players you think should be elected to the Community Positional Prospect list.

In the current positional poll, Jake Marisnick and Hak-Ju Lee are leading the polls, Both are likely going to be elected soon, and have been discussed a fair amount already.

Some guys that have been getting votes beyond those two, that might be interesting to discuss:

Cheslor Cuthbert, Michael Choice, Nick Franklin, Anthony Gose, Jonathan Singleton, George Springer, Christian Yelich, Mike Olt, Nick Castellanos, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Gary Brown, Leonys Martin, Gary Sanchez, Ryan Lavarnway

The last time we had a discussion thread like this, it didn't work out so great. I don't mind if people name their top 5 remaining or whatever, as that might spark a debate, but I think ideally we'll have some 1 on 1 or 3-way debates that could help shape the upcoming polls (even ones outside the next 5), maybe a battle between CF types, or catchers, or 3B types, or Josh Bell vs Starling Marte...just something that can hopefully add new insights.

If this one doesn't create much discussion, I'll probably just discontinue these.

POSITIONAL RESULTS SO FAR:

#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 59.2%

#02 - MIKE TROUT - 38.8% (In Poll #1)

#03 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 52.9%

#04 - MANNY MACHADO - 31.5% (55.1% In Runoff)

#05 - DEVIN MESORACO - 45.1%

#06 - WILL MYERS - 31.6% (51.4% In Runoff)

#07 - JESUS MONTERO - 61.3%

#08 - ANTHONY RENDON - 53.1%

#09 - TRAVIS D'ARNAUD - 46.6%

#10 - NOLAN ARENADO - 33.3%

#11 - MIGUEL SANO - 37.3%

#12 - YONDER ALONSO - 22.5% (45.3% In 3-Way Runoff)

#13 - FRANCISCO LINDOR - 26.1%

#14 - BUBBA STARLING - 33.8%

#15 - XANDER BOGAERTS - 25.0% (55.2% In 3-Way Runoff)

#16 - ANTHONY RIZZO - 27.8%

#17 - OSCAR TAVERAS - 40.3%

#18 - BRETT JACKSON - 20.3% (58.7% In Runoff)

#19 - YASMANI GRANDAL - 31.3%

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My next 3

Cuthbert, Singleton, Springer.

I really like Cuthbert and think he has the tools to be a good all-around 3B. I’m not sure why Singleton isn’t getting more love by now. Even if he’s “only” a 1B, I think he has a really good bat. I like Springer’s tools and upside, and think he’ll provide enough offensive value to be a solid corner OF.

by killa on Nov 28, 2025 12:54 PM EST reply actions

Corner for Springer?

Hmmm.

Springer is very athletic and very fast. Combine that with great fundamentals and you have an excellent defender. He has tremendous awareness and excellent body control. If the bat holds true, there isn’t any reason he won’t contend for, and possibly win, a gold glove. He’s a great leaper and will go after the ball and make diving catches. He compares very well to Ken Griffey, Jr. in center field, and his own assessment of being like Torii Hunter is very close as well. He runs a 6.6 – 60 yard dash and can hit 90 mph on the radar gun. Springer can make the long throws and is quite accurate with them.

That is from baseball instinct this August.

One of the top athletes in this year’s draft, George Springer offers five-tool ability at a premium position (center field). While he hold’s Husky records in a couple of offensive categories, the best aspect of his game lays on the defensive side of the ball. In centerfield, he flashes Gold Glove potential. He uses his plus wheels, and his fantastic awareness and body control to cover ground and make outs from gap to gap. While he isn’t a burner, he carries the speed he uses to run a 6.8 second 60 yard dash over to game day. He’s a great leaper and should be threat to make diving catches and to scale outfield walls. He has the arm strength to hit 90 mph on a radar gun and his throws have good carry and are generally accurate. He’s compared himself to Torii Hunter– a player he used to watch at New Britain Rock Cats games– and he has the tools to be a similar centerfielder.

That is from MLB draft scouting report.

I don’t see why he’s downgraded to a corner OF.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 1:08 PM EST up reply actions

He's actually #1 on my list

But the fact that he’s a much better CF prospect than Marisnick, is the biggest reason why.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

I haven't seen much bad about Marisnick's defense, really

I think his biggest obstacles to sticking there are 1) Anthony Gose 2) Physical projection 3) Anthony Gose.

by mrkupe on Nov 28, 2025 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Hmmm

My impression is it is 1) physical projection, 2) whoever else might be better in CF. The thing is you can’t count the physical projection as a plus on the offense end, but ignore it on the defensive end. I think of him roughly the way I think of Brett Jackson defensively, in that either one could play CF, but ideally they’ll be moved off CF. Maybe I’m wrong. If there is a glowing defensive report, or even a pretty good one, I’d like to see it.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

To be frank, I haven’t found a 2011 full scouting report on Marisnick. However, I did find this from Gerry the resident minor league oracle at battersbox.ca:

“Early in the season there were a lot of questions about Marisnick’s defence and whether he could play centrefield. when I saw Lansing play Marisnick looked very good out there and had great jumps and deceptive speed.”

by gabrielsyme on Nov 28, 2025 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

A much better prospect, or a much better prospect in terms of sticking at CF?

If the former, I have to disagree: Marisnick is a year and a half younger and has had a good professional year. College guys translate to the pros more reliably than HS guys, but there’s still some uncertainty there for Springer.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 28, 2025 8:59 PM EST up reply actions

Much better in terms of defense yes

I’d take Springer over Marisnick on the whole as well, but he isn’t a “much better” all around prospect.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 29, 2025 9:51 AM EST up reply actions

I would opt for Jake Marisnick

More than a year and a half younger and I believe he is more probable to become the more traditional offensive cornerstone. I agree that George Springer is much more likely to stick in CF than Marisnick, but I doubt either does & I’d side with gabriel & go with Marisnick if they’re both corner OFs.

by Matt0330 on Nov 29, 2025 9:57 AM EST up reply actions

Why do you doubt Springer sticks?

When you keep reading gold glove CF potential? If you like Marisnick, fine, but doubting Springer sticks in CF seems pretty odd.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 29, 2025 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

Ok, that might be a bit strong

I usually dislike the ‘thicken out’ train of thought whereby a player will be all but incapable of even attempting to man the position he was able to field deftly before filling out &/or putting on a little weight & I was probably a little guilty of going along with that here (unintentional of course..). He’s 22 & already over 200 lbs so this might be who he is as he approches his prime. I think he’d be a centerfielder initially at the very least while I doubt Marisnick ever plays much CF (if any) in MLB. Offensively, I could see Springer with some off-peak Reggie Sanders seasons in his future, but something about him gives me pause. I feel like the potential for he to stall is higher than a lot of other semi-polished, highly drafted college position players.

While I prefer the Jays OF SU in this comparison, I’m not overly enamored with Marisnick actually & I wonder just how much projection is there. I think he could be a regular RF with the ability do do most things pretty well in a rosy scenario in the future though & it will be interesting to see how he adjust to Hi-A pitching.

by Matt0330 on Nov 29, 2025 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

I think Marisnick crushes A+ next year

Double A, on the other hand? That will be where we will see if he passes the eye test.

by mrkupe on Nov 29, 2025 11:10 AM EST up reply actions

I agree

Everything I’ve seen on Springer, tape and otherwise, makes me think he’s going to be a center fielder, and most likely a pretty good one at that. If there is a reason to doubt this, it’s most likely because he might fill out, lose some speed, and consequently see his range drop below what you’d want out in CF . . .but personally, I think this is nitpicking at the moment.

by mrkupe on Nov 28, 2025 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

Well

I was saying it more as he’d have enough bat to profile at corner, not that he was going to be a corner. Was just throwing my brief thoughts out there, but can see how it came across that way.

by killa on Nov 28, 2025 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

I don't really understand the Cuthbert love this early

I am much lower on Cuthbert – needs more power for someone already stuck at 3B. I like the increase in BB% and decrease in K%, but that doesn’t seem to be enough to put him in the top 25 for position prospects.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2025 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

I have him in the early 30s right now

by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2025 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

Singleton

Seems to early for him to me. As a 1B prospect, you have to bring something extra to the table, and I am not seeing it from him yet. His BB% keeps dropping, his K% keeps rising, and he has yet to show the great power needed for a 1b prospect. I have him in the late 30s on my prospect list.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2025 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Late thirties

Among position players? Nothing incredulous intended, just asking for the purposes of clarification.

by Matt0330 on Nov 28, 2025 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

perhaps I am being to critical of him

I will look at it and reconsider, but can’t see him any higher than 30 for me. I guess I am a bit harsh on 1b prospects.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2025 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

+1

http://bullpenbanter.com

RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage

by gatling on Nov 28, 2025 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

I've got him in the late 20s

As of now. It would take some new bad info on the guys ahead of him for Singleton to move up (about 26th is conceivable for me), and he could slip a bit if I get convinced on some others I currently have below him. But he’ll be well before the late 30s for sure. He’s a weakish B+, but I use B/B+ split grade for some tweeners and he’s be ahead of them.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

My 3

Nick Franklin
Jonathan Singleton
Cheslor Cuthbert (probably - it’s close with a couple of young OF)

by Matt0330 on Nov 28, 2025 1:06 PM EST reply actions

My next 10...

Not in order:

- Marisnick
- Gose
- G Brown
- Olt
- Choice
- Springer
- H Lee
- Hamilton
- Yelich
- Singleton

by rhd on Nov 28, 2025 3:14 PM EST reply actions

Look, I was higher than anyone on Arenado this time last year, and people thought it was wrong to have him in my top 50

I feel similar to Cutbhert this year, he’s going to break out big-time next year.

For me: Cuthbert, Marisnick, Lee, Gose, Singleton, Springer/Choice , Yelich, Wilin Rosario, G. Sanchez, Mike Olt

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 28, 2025 4:52 PM EST reply actions

Well

You had him 8 spots higher than Andrew Brackman. Prospect lists are full of hits and misses.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

hahaha

Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend

by miketrout on Nov 28, 2025 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

Everybody

. has hits or misses but, every list also has more or less hits or misses than other lists Keith. A guy can’t feel proud of being right abouit a guy before others were? I say Bravo to SHS for being ahead of the herd about Arenado.

Can we maybe let a guy be proud of a ranking on a player without making him feel like he was arroganty? Or no?

"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.

by casejud on Nov 28, 2025 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

+1

by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2025 7:38 PM EST up reply actions

well, to be fair

there’s usually an inverse correlation between how proud you are at accomplishing something …. and how often you accomplish it

for me, over time, being correct has just become so second-nature that i no longer get proud over being correct :P

by blue bulldog on Nov 28, 2025 7:43 PM EST up reply actions

This is true, I agree

acting liike you have been there before is more authenticly confident and, dignified . . but some people take it too far as far as thier aversion to arrogance, in my opinion. I was like that as a kid but, I grew to love players like Rickey Henderson. Disdaining every, single non-humble action is also a form of arrogance as well.

Then there is the fact that the guy above was simply making an analogy of Arenado a year ago to Cuthbert now and, not even really saying “I was great”

"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.

by casejud on Nov 28, 2025 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

I wasn't knocking him

Not really anyway. I looked at his December 2010 rankings, and he had Arenado at 66. Hardly revolutionary, but at this point looks like he was more right than the average person. He had Brackman at 74, but I was pretty high on Brackman this past off-season too.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

I had Arenado at 42

. . on my spotty list, right above Tyler Matzek and Grant Green, who are likely lower now.

"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.

by casejud on Nov 28, 2025 8:08 PM EST up reply actions

I do respect

Those that put out their own lists, especially early ones.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

Josh Bell

Lindor and Starling went a spots earlier and Josh Bell was considered to be only just below them leading up to the draft. He is also a switch hitter.

by Cainyoudigit on Nov 28, 2025 7:42 PM EST reply actions

Josh Bell was considered just below Starling?

That’s news to me. Starling seemed to clearly be on a tier of his own when it came to high schoolers in this past draft. As for Lindor, reports on him this fall have been quite strong, which seems to have people a lot more comfortable with his bat (the only real question on him at draft time).

by nixa37 on Nov 28, 2025 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

Obviously when I say high schoolers I'm only talking positional prospects.

by nixa37 on Nov 28, 2025 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

Bell

He’s behind Marte for Pirate fans. For draft followers, he’s behind Springer (and others).

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

-1

that’s just silly. behind springer!? josh bell was the 2nd best bat in this draft - assuming starling is #1. i put him and starling pretty damn close in terms of highest ceiling, but starling probably gets the nod due to his other tools. but what hitter has a higher floor than bell? certainly not starling, lindor, springer, baez, etc. worst case bell is a 25-30 hr hitting .260 corner OFer - which is something. best case 45 hr’s batting .300 and a perennial mvp candidate. the fact that he is not receiving more votes is asinine.

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 29, 2025 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

"worst case bell is a 25-30 hr hitting .260 corner OFer"

Now that’s what’s actually asinine here

by nixa37 on Nov 29, 2025 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

+1

DeathSpeculum is essentially saying he would give 9:1 odds that Bell hits at least 25 HR on a consistent basis in the major leagues

that’s absurd

by blue bulldog on Nov 29, 2025 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

45 HR batting .300 and a perennial MVP candidate

Man, that guy sure is going to look good . . .

. . .playing for the Yankees

by mrkupe on Nov 29, 2025 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

Oh Yeah?

Well Springer is gonna hit .330 with 20 HR and 40 SB every year!

See how easy it is to just throw out crazy predictions and say that’s why this prospect should be ranked higher?

"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."

by BenMc5 on Nov 29, 2025 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

per BA chat

Jacob (DC): What do you see Josh Bell’s best big league seasons looking like?

John Perrotto: .275-40-115

I’m certainly not the first one to suggest that bell will hit 40 hr’s and i think a 45 home run ceiling is reasonable - assuming everything breaks right. and because he’s a switch hitter with good hands and bat speed and should hit for average and is said to be extremely intelligent with low k’s/high obp, his floor should be pretty high also.

those #‘s for springer are equivalent to bell hitting .500 with 100 hr’s and 30 sb’s. springer k’s a TON more than bell and i highly doubt his ave or obp will ever be higher than bell’s - .330 is a joke. the guy has, what, a 60 speed tool? 40 sb’s seems a bit much .250/20-25 hr/25 sb

bulldog - 10:1 odds that bell will hit 25 hr consistently is absurd?! i’d take that bet everyday of the week. what would you put the odds of harper hitting 25 hr consistently at? both now and before he’d ever played pro ball? obviously bell’s not that good, but he’s an elite prospect and should be viewed as such. bell is to everyday playing as bundy is to pitching.

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 30, 2025 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

Harper showed 80 power with a wood bat in a juco league

Obviously it was much, much, much, much easier to project he will hit 25 HR in the majors than Bell. And you are making so many assumptions about Bell. We have little in the way of knowing at this point that he will combine low k’s with high OBP. He hasn’t even played a real professional game yet. We have no way of knowing how the transition will go. Remember, Josh Vitters was considered a sure thing with the bat too when he came out of high school. How ridiculous would you feel right now if you had said his worst case was being a .260 hitter with 20-25 HR power?

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

ha.

but one of the big things working in bell’s favor is the low k rate. of course that was in high school, but i don’t think anyone ever thought that vitters would have less than 170-200 k’s a year. still, point remains, if bundy it to be considered an elite prospect without having pitched outside of high school, how can josh bell not be considered as such?

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 30, 2025 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

"i don't think anyone ever thought that vitters would have less than 170-200 k's"

What? You are literally the first person I have ever heard say anything like that. That would make him one of the most strikeout happy hitters in MLB history.

And I would hope Bell wasn’t striking out much against HS competition. Its HS competition. If you’re already striking out at that level, you’re in big trouble when you get to the bigs.

What separates Bundy from Bell (aside from being pretty much universally considered the better prospect) is that pitching is active, while hitting is reactive. You can look at the pitches Bundy throws and get a good feel for whether or not they could be successful in the bigs, even if the batters he’s facing now are completely overmatched. Its completely different for Bell though, as crushing HS pitching tells us almost nothing about how well he will do against 90+ MPH heat mixed with consistent breaking and changeups that aren’t telegraphed.

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

vitters hit .350 in high school. bell hit .550

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 30, 2025 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

Awesome?

What’s your point? I didn’t say anything about Vitters having a higher batting average in HS.

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

bell’s clearly got a better eye. ok. maybe the Ingeian 180 k’s were a bit much. but comparatively speaking 2011 bell > 2007 vitters.
I’m not saying that bundy or even starling aren’t better prospects than bell. i’m saying is that he’s better than springer and i am surprised that a potential 40 hr hitter is so undervalued.
also, shouldn’t pitching be reactive? throwing is active, pitching should be reactive - at least to some extent. does the pitcher not react to a batter’s preferences ? hitting style/side of the plate, count, men on base, etc? tools are tools and josh bell has a plethora of them.

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 30, 2025 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

I wasn't following the draft at the time, so I can't say for sure

But my impression is that Vitters was thought more highly of at draft time than Bell was. Vitters was generally considered the best bat in his high school class (one that included Moustakas and Heyward at the top). I think your falling into the trap of letting Vitters pro performance color your perception of him as a prep prospect.

And as for the active/reactive thing, I think you are missing my point. A pitcher executes his pitch and he’s done. Scouts can simply judge him on the pitches he’s able to throw. Hitters have to see what a pitcher throws and react to it. Its harder to know exactly how well a hitter is going to react against significantly better stuff (and this may be part of the problem with Vitters). The pitches a pitcher throws aren’t going to suddenly change in quality when he faces better competition. The same can’t be said for a hitter’s ability to make contact and hit for power. Basically, its much tougher to project how a hitter’s tools will translate than it is to tell how a pitcher’s stuff will translate.

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, i wasn't following then either so tough to say

but everything i’ve read about vitters from that time suggests between 20+ and 30+ hr’s and a 260/270 ish BA, give or take. which is solid and with the position he plays, even more so. but bell’s ceililng seems higher to me. i don’t think anyone thought there was a chance vitters would hit 40+ homers… did they?

i know what your point is and it’s well taken, but i don’t think it’s as black and white as you make it out to be. i think it’s just easier to see or gauge a 100 mph heater vs. the batting equivalent. Sure that guy hit that ball a country mile, but under what circumstances, with whom pitching, in what kind of a park, etc. but tools are tools
also, there may be something to be said for the way the tools fit together. Everything that goes into a batters swing needs to be functioning for him to maximize his potential, whereas a pitcher can get by with one or two elements. for example, a guy who can swing the bat at nearly 100 mph would surely be impressive, but if he has no eye it doesn’t mean anything. A pitcher can throw a rope a 100+ and guys still won’t be able to hit it. or a well commanded knuckler that comes in at 65.

my main question/point is why bell is not thought of more fondly. if you say he’s only played high school ball and that means nothing, fair enough, i can’t argue with that. but i would contend that he played a lot more meaningful baseball than starling did last year. starling k’d almost as many times in one game as bell did all year! i still think if both fulfill their potential that starling will be better, but i’d also put bell’s floor higher. mostly i just don’t understand the argument why he is SO far away from starling.

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 30, 2025 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

Do you have a link to the .260/.270 AVG thing?

I can’t imagine that is correct. Vitters was praised for his incredible swing and natural ability to put the bat on the ball.

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 6:00 PM EST up reply actions

Not sure what to tell you

On the pitchers, obviously we just disagree. Its not hard to look at a pitcher and gauge how good his stuff is and if he has some control/command. The same can’t be said for hitters. Sure, I might be able to tell if a guy great raw power or great barrel awareness, but I have absolutely no idea how those tools are going to translate to the field once he starts facing much, much better pitching.

As for Bell’s ranking, other people just aren’t nearly as high on him as you. He projects for plus contact and power, but the rest of his tools are averagish and he’s obviously going to end up in an OF corner, which puts a lot of pressure on bat. Throw in the fact that we have yet to see him against pro pitching, so there are obviously going to be questions about how well his hitting tools will translate and how advanced his bat actually is.

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 6:07 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think this is true

his contact tool was always his most praised asset. Some folks did project 30-40 hrs, but I don’t think the power estimates were as uniform as the impressions on his ability to make consistent solid contact. As it stands now, I think he’s far more likely to hit .300 with meager #s of extra base hits than hit 25 HRs, unless his PD improves.

I also wouldn’t compare their senior year stats, since Vitters had pneumonia and missed games/dropped a lot of weight.

by PrincetonCubs on Dec 1, 2025 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

Vitters re-wind

In the 2008 off-season the Padres were supposedly considering sending Peavy to the Cubs with Vitters being the “prize”. Back then he sounded like a future high average hitter (.290+) with 25-30 homerun power at maturity. At the time he was coming off a seasion in which he hit .328/.365/.498 as an 18-year old in the NWL. He was described as a very safe prospect that would have already been mashing in the majors by now.

If Vitters & Bell were both freshy drafted, I’d expect Bell to get extra points for ultimate ceiling, but Vitters would be considered the safer bet of the two with a lot of upside as well giving them similar perceived value at the original off-set. Sickels gave Vitters a B+ following the 2007 season that he was drafted in. Would imagine Bell will get either the same or possibly a strait B if John’s wanting to take the wait & see approach that Bell’s type sometimes warrant.

by Amish_Willy on Dec 1, 2025 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

Johnny Damon hit under .300 his senior year of HS!

doesn’t mean a thing!

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Nov 30, 2025 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

lulz

so you would give me 100 fake dollars if Bell doesn’t ht 25 HR consistently in the majors

and i would give you 10 fake dollars if Bell does hit 25 HR consistently in the majors

let the rest of this board be witness

by blue bulldog on Nov 30, 2025 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

no no no . 10:1 against him not hitting 25 consistently.

or 1:10 he does.

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 30, 2025 3:12 PM EST up reply actions

He said you would give 10:1 odds

Which does mean that you would pay out $10 for every $1 wagered by the other side.

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

yes. give v. take. read it too quickly i would certainly not give anyone 10:1 odds on that. i would take them. why would anyone give 10:1 odds on an amateur ball player doing anything of note? satisfied?

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 30, 2025 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

I was never dissatisfied

Just explaining where the misunderstanding came from

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

see?

now that we’ve established that you wouldn’t give out 10:1 odds on Bell hitting 25 HR consistently…..

this was your original statement “worst case bell is a 25-30 hr hitting .260 corner OFer”

i think it would be natural for every reader on this board to think that “worst case scenario” is equivalent to bottom 10th percentile of outcomes

if you think that the bottom 10th percentile of outcomes he hits 25 HR consistently, and the other 90 percent of the time he hits better than that, then you should always be willing to give 9:1 odds that Bell ends up hitting 25 HR

by blue bulldog on Nov 30, 2025 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

and obviously i was exaggerating a bit there

worst case is AA -i’d give 9:1 odds on that, and if you’re talking “taking” 10:1 odds on him hitting 25 hr, i’m all for it. By worst case, i guess i mean to say floor. i think his floor is probably around there, say 15-20 hr range; which would make consistent 25 hr seasons reasonable.

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 30, 2025 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

I think you might want to take this to www.minorleaguebookie.com

by mrkupe on Nov 30, 2025 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

I was obviously joking

by throwing that out there, to demonstrate how anyone can just throw numbers out there to pump up their favorite prospect. I just think putting 40-45 HR’s out there for Bell perennially in the bigs is very premature. But hey, there’s nothing wrong with dreaming, and maybe you’ll be right!

"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."

by BenMc5 on Nov 30, 2025 5:40 PM EST up reply actions

i'm not saying perennially.

i’m just saying ceiling. and i’m not the only one who’s put that kind of ceiling on the kid. just trying to figure out why he is not more highly regarded. especially compared with starling, who also has zero pro ball.

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 30, 2025 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

This is my recollection as well

He was regarded as a top-10 talent. iirc, there was some debate over whether he or Starling was the best pure hitting prospect out of the high school class.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 28, 2025 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

starling will play plus cf though as opposed to a corner...huge difference

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Nov 28, 2025 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

Absolutely

Starling’s other tools make him a clearly better prospect. As I recall, the discussion was just about their relative offensive upsides (i.e. the power + hit tools).

by gabrielsyme on Nov 28, 2025 11:02 PM EST up reply actions

Anthony Gose

I’d like to hear some takes on him. As a 20 year old in AA, he hit 16 homers and stole 70 bases (in 85 tries). I haven’t read much recently about his defense, but last year’s BA scouting report said his CF defense and arm strength are two plus tools, and of course has outstanding speed. At the same time, his .253/.349/.415 line in 2011 isn’t great, and he struck out at a rate of 26.2%, which is up from 23% in 2010 and 19.2% in 2009. His walk rate has also increased at each level however: 6.1% in 2009, 7.8% in 2010, and 10.6% in 2011.

He’s still quite young and has flashed some pretty impressive tools while showing solid improvement in some key areas - along with the increase in BB rate he’s increased his slugging % each year. He’s also learning to be a better baserunner and showed great improvement SB success rate. If he can just cut down on the K’s a bit, he’ll be a very good player offensively and defensively in the bigs.

"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."

by BenMc5 on Nov 29, 2025 11:43 AM EST reply actions

Great D and Speed

Not a lot of power, and too many K’s. I have him at 33 on my positional list right now. He is a high risk, high reward type player who could really boom or bust.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 29, 2025 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

16 HR

New Hampshire is a great place for LHB to hit HR. Statcorner has the park factor for LHB HR as 120. I don’t quite agree that it’s completely boom or bust - I think even with the contact doesn’t improve much, he’s useful as a 4th outfielder who can also be a defensive replacement/pinch runner and give a little pop off the bench. Relative to his ceiling, that’s a bust, but in absolute terms there’s some value.

But it really comes down to the contact issues, and his approach at the plate, which both need a lot of work.

by MjwW on Nov 29, 2025 11:03 PM EST up reply actions

Gary Sanchez

I think people are overcompensating for him perhaps being ranked a little too high last offseason based on a strong GCL season. If you look at his numbers in what was considered a “down year”, he should be higher than he will likely end up on this list IMO. He still ended up with 17 homers and an .820 OPS as an 18 year-old catcher in full season ball.

He definitely had his issues with strikeouts, defense and maturity this year, but unlike Jesus Montero, there is still the belief that he has the tools to become a decent defensive catcher.

He compares very well with everyone’s favorite shiny new toy, Xander Bogaerts (who is already on this list at #15). While Bogaerts hit for a slightly higher average and a little more power, Sanchez’s plate discipline was a little better (though he did strike out more). As far as position value goes, most people seem to think that Bogaerts will not stay at short, while Sanchez, despite his struggles this season, is still considered a catcher long term.

Sanchez also outperformed guys like at the same level Cuthbert and Castellanos who have less positional value. He was better than Sano last season when they were at the same level, and while Sano was much better this season, he did it at a lower level. I realize minor league stats are not the be-all and end-all when it comes to prospects, but the scouting reports have been pretty damn good for Sanchez as well.

Sanchez certainly has his warts as a prospect, but I think will wind up underrated this offseason because of his poor start to the season.

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by lemonjello on Nov 30, 2025 10:54 AM EST reply actions

It largely comes down to what you think of his defense

I have trouble getting over Mike Newman quoting a scout throwing out a 20 grade on Sanchez’s defense.

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

Supposedly he got MUCH better after he was sat down and disciplined.

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by JD Sussman on Nov 30, 2025 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

I know, but I don't effort alone causes you to get a 20 grade

Not to mention the fact that I think the whole discipline thing should be held against him in a prospect ranking.

I’m also not a 100% sure the 20 grade was even based solely on the early season. I know Mike was asked about it at some point, but I haven’t been able to find the answer.

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

*I know, but I don't think effort alone...

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

that story was

from the most recent fangraphs chat i think

by blue bulldog on Nov 30, 2025 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

While he mentioned it there, I had seen him mention it well before

I believe it was one of those early mentions where the question of when the scout saw him came up. It might have also been in one of the FG chats though.

by nixa37 on Nov 30, 2025 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

+1

Love Sanchez. I have him at 25 on my positional list, and 4th in line right now, behind Olt, Lavarnway, and Brown.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 30, 2025 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed mostly

He’s not far off for me (in my next 5) & I think he is being a little passed over. Not at all dissimilar to Xander Bogaerts offensively.

by Matt0330 on Nov 30, 2025 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Strikeouts, Defence and Maturity

The first two are the two biggest red flags I have for toolsy young prospects. Strikeouts have a huge impact on a player’s offensive ceiling. It’s great to see the power & plate discipline, but given the potential for zero defensive value it’s hard to see him coming up soon for me. In a way, I’d say Sanchez is in a similar position to Gose prior to this season. Both young for their leagues, both with major question marks: K’s and power for Gose; K’s and defence for Sanchez.

by gabrielsyme on Nov 30, 2025 5:58 PM EST up reply actions