Community Pitching Prospect #18 RUNOFF
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 4:06 PM EST
Email
PrintAfter a 24 hour open poll, only 2 votes separate Martin Perez and Robbie Erlin. They'll face off head to head to determine Community Pitching Prospect #18
PITCHING RESULTS SO FAR:
#01 - MATT MOORE - 91.0%
#02 - JULIO TEHERAN - 57.3%
#03 - SHELBY MILLER - 66.7%
#04 - TREVOR BAUER - 40.0%
#05 - TYLER SKAGGS - 30.0%
#06 - GERRIT COLE - 24.3% (65.2% In Runoff)
#07 - JAMESON TAILLON - 26.0% (34.7 In 3-Way Runoff, 51.2% In 2-Way Runoff)
#08 - DYLAN BUNDY - 39.3%
#09 - DANNY HULTZEN - 45.6%
#10 - TAIJUAN WALKER - 31.6% (51.5% In Runoff)
#11 - DREW POMERANZ - 34.2%
#12 - JACOB TURNER - 45.7%
#13 - JARROD PARKER - 44.4%
#14 - JAMES PAXTON - 24.6% (51.6% In Runoff)
#15 - CARLOS MARTINEZ - 48.0%
#16 - RANDALL DELGADO - 28.6%
#17 - ARCHIE BRADLEY - 33.3%
84 comments
|
Add comment
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
+1
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Nov 28, 2025 4:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."
by BenMc5 on Nov 28, 2025 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
+1
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 28, 2025 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 28, 2025 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
+1
KEMvP
"You know Joe, if Keith Jardines last name was Johnson, the nickname 'The Dean of Mean' wouldn't work at all."
by T.C. Engel on Nov 28, 2025 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.
by casejud on Nov 28, 2025 6:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
20th
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 28, 2025 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
by MonkeyEpoxy on Nov 29, 2025 2:08 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2025 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2025)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 29, 2025 5:18 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 29, 2025 8:36 AM EST up reply actions
30th
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 29, 2025 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"We did a lot of good things last year, and now we've got Julio ... That does nothing but improve the offense, and we expect to do better. That's our goal, to lead the NFL in everything. Every offensive category." -Roddy White
by Beachy Keen on Nov 28, 2025 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"Hey Laserlips. Your mama was a snowblower."
by AirmanSD on Nov 28, 2025 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
+1
can’t believe these two are battling it out for the next spot………very weird.
by Los Gueros on Nov 28, 2025 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Nov 28, 2025 7:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Nov 29, 2025 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
Copied from the current 21-25 discussion
I don’t understand Martin Perez going on this early. I have him at 30 personally. He has not performed up to his stuff for two years now, regardless of the aggressive promotions. Last year, his BB-rate jumped, this year it fell some, but he had an even greater drop in K-rate. This combined with a high WHIP and hit-rate does not scream dominance to me. He has pretty high BABIPs throughout his career, so either Texas has horrible defense throughout their minors, or Perez is an extremely unlucky player, or his stuff is more hittable than the scouting reports would suggest.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2025 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Stuff/upside vs. performance
Perez has 3 potential plus pitches(the FB and CH are probably already there), generates strong GB numbers and despite playing hitter friendly leagues, keeps the ball in the park. He’s a guy with true ace potential, something we can’t say for everyone(and probably not Erlin here).
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 28, 2025 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
I understand his stuff scouts well
But at some point he has to back it up with some performance, and some dominant performance before I feel comfortable projecting him as an ace.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2025 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
And that's totally understandable
I don’t feel it’s as necessary to see dominance from him when the stuff is there and he made across the board improvements this year in H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 while seeing a slight drop in K/9(9.1 last year vs. 8.5 this year). I don’t see either opinion on Perez as indefensible or hard to understand.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 28, 2025 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
i can see a case for either
fairly decent dropoff to either one after bradley. i do prefer erlin’s track record.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
I prefer Perez to Bradley actually
among a number of other names that I have ahead of Bradley. I don’t buy Erlin this high, and I like the kid. I think it’s an overreaction to the numbers, but maybe I’m wrong and he’s a Cliff Lee type guy who can maintain those type of ultra low walk rates. I just see him as a more likely #3 starter than anything much higher than that.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 28, 2025 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see him as Cliff Lee
If I thought that he was that good, he’d be fighting Matt Moore for the #1 spot.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2025 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
That's why I didn't call him Cliff Lee
I said a Lee type on the walk rate, something that Erlin would need to keep up to rank here and to make up for his lesser stuff. If he had Lee’s stuff and Lee’s command/control, then yeah he’d challenge Moore for #1. He doesn’t have that level of stuff, and I’m skeptical he can show that sort of command/control at the MLB level.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 28, 2025 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
Ok
That makes sense. I still like his chances, but yeah. Even if he does prove to have top notch command/control, there is still a chance it won’t work out all that well for him at the MLB level. MLB hitters have a tendency to exploit pitchers. We’ll see what happens pretty soon probably.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 29, 2025 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
I prefer him to Bradley by two spots
but I am pretty conservative on newly drafted HS arms.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2025 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
the drop as measured by K/9
is buoyed by the fact that Perez got to face more batters per inning due to his high BABIP
his ability to miss bats took a steep fall this year after he rose to AAA. last year in AA, 21.5% of batters faced by Perez went back to the dugout without putting bat on ball. that held steady this year, while he was in AA (22.5%), but fell down dramatically after he was promoted to AAA, when it dipped to 15.6%.
his groundball rate at 50% is good, but not exactly elite.
at the end of the day, there’s just something disturbingly off about Perez. it’s easy for hitters to hit him (consistently high BABIP’s). he doesn’t miss an elite number of bats. he also doesn’t generate an elite number of groundballs. all this, despite the scouts’ seeming love for his stuff. if we assume the scouts are right, then that screams command issues.
maybe the scouts are right, and he has ace upside. based on the numbers (or command issues, if you prefer), i’d say the probability of him reaching that upside though, is probably less than 5%.
even if you think Erlin’s upside is “only” a No. 3 starter though, the probability of him reaching that upside is significantly higher. at least 25% if not more, in my mind.
by blue bulldog on Nov 28, 2025 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
And yet
in their time in Frisco they posted nearly identical FIP’s with Perez having the command issues. His ceiling is so far above what Erlin’s is, I would gamble on the talent over safety here, not something I do that often. I’m a big proponent of safe, #3 type starters that get overlooked or downgraded every year.
Perez did see a drop in his K rate in AA, by any metric. I don’t expect that to be an issue long term, but I suppose one could extrapolate that from 49 innings. I notice you didn’t bring up the fact that he not only maintained the improvement in his BB rate(both BB/9 and BB%), he built upon it posting lower rates in those categories in AAA.
We’ll see how it plays out over the next 10 years or so I guess.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 28, 2025 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
i didn't mention the BB rate
because i don’t find it particularly meaningful. neither do i find minor league FIP’s all that useful either.
from a numbers standpoint, good K rates (especially Ks rates) are a much better predictor of future success than good BB rates. in fact, i don’t even particularly like Erlin because of the BB rates. i like him because of the K rates. the BB rates are just the cherry on top.
besides, 10.7% → 10.2% → 8.4% for Perez isn’t something to write home about. that’s not an elite walk-rate anyway.
at the end of the day, my philosophy on evaluating pitching prospects is really simple. if two guys have similar scouting profiles, then go with the guy with a better statistical profile. if two guys have similar statistical profiles, then go with the guy with a better scouting profile. if one guy’s scouting profile is significantly better than the other, but the other guy’s statistical profile is significantly better (read: much higher K rate), then go with the statistical profile, because it’s a lot easier to get value from a guy with lesser present stuff but better present command than to get value from a guy with lesser present command but better present stuff.
by blue bulldog on Nov 29, 2025 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's cumulative
including his AAA stint of 49 innings. I’m not surprised to see a drop there.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 28, 2025 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
Neither
guy seems too exciting with some of the other names on the board.
by odbsol on Nov 28, 2025 4:20 PM EST reply actions
this is what I was thinking
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Nov 29, 2025 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
I'd take matt harvey
over either right now, although Erlin is more polished and Perez was rushed perhaps and still has upside. I think Harvey is more likely to end up a number 2 (to use that rather uninformative but universally used standard).
by wobatus on Nov 29, 2025 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Ok Voting Closed
It’s been 24 hours and Perez has a 3 vote lead. He wins.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 29, 2025 4:13 PM EST reply actions
Something to say? Choose one of these options to log in.
- » Create a new SB Nation account
- » Already registered with SB Nation? Log in!
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
- Start posting on Minor League Ball
- Minor League Ball on Facebook
- Follow @MinorLeagueBall
- Follow Minor League Ball on your iPhone!
- Subscribe to Minor League Ball Stories
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2011 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
