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Keith Law's Top 50 MLB Players Age 25 or Under.

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http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7291374/mlb-justin-upton-leads-top-50-list-mlb-players-age-25

Star-divide

Any thoughts on this? I thought this would bring in plenty of discussion. And while it is not specifically about current prospects or minor leaguers, many of these guys are former and/or recent prospects. I thought it wouldd be fun to here some discussion on it.

A few thoughts of mine......

--- I don't really like Posey's ranking. While Posey did do well in 2010, I'm not entirely confident he can repeat those numbers. His 2011 line (before the injury) seems more like what he will produce. 2010 really looks like a peak year, one that he will only be able to replicate in his prime. On top of this, that was a pretty severe injury. The fact that Posey is also a catcher also makes it even more scary.

--- Castro seems a little high for me, also. While he has a ton of potential, he still hasn't been overly good at the MLB level, posting a 100 OPS+ in 2010 and a 111 OPS+ in 2011. Factor in that he should really be playing another posistion (2B?), and I don't see it.

--- I never realized Maybin had such a solid year, given his park.

--- I would put Strausburg higher, but that is probably just me. If healthy, I would take him over any pitcher in MLB.

--- Why so low on Avila?

--- What the heck is up with the Devil Ray's logos? I find it insulting and lazy. In all honesty, either the editor is an idiot or he did it on purpose. The Rays haven't been the Devil Rays since 2007.

--- Dang, is Hellickson low. I call that this one will look stupid in a few years.

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its ESPN it is sad the shi* they pile on with the Rays

during September in one of the their many attendance articles they used a picture from the 3 years ago during a game that had been played during the day (scheduled at night) because of a hurricane that was about to hit. Resulting in as you would imagine nobody in the stands. Maybe I’m just an angry Tampa fan but it seems the boys in Bristol have their panties all in a wad because we keep beating up on their Sox and Yankees.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2025 2:22 PM EST reply actions  

really? You think the Rays keep beating up on the Red Sox and Yankees?

I’m a Yankees fan and I like the Rays and you literally made me laugh out loud when you said the Rays keep beating up on the Red Sox and Yankees. The Rays are good, but they haven’t been beating up on either team except what, twice in their existance that they’ve made the playoffs? They have a crap stadium and have an attendance that was 29th last year, above only Oakland. This was in a year that they made the playoffs. The Marlins averaged more and you could hear echos off the stadium walls during games. Maybe that’s why ESPN craps all over the Rays, because they trade away/let their top guys go via free agency and are in the bottom 10 of attendance every year since 2001.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 1, 2025 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Yankee fan here calling over-reaction

And remember the Rays have been more of a problem for the Red Sox than the Yankees. Since they became truly competitive, it seems like the Yankees struggle with the Red Sox who struggle with the Rays who struggle with the Yankees.

But even accepting that dbullsfan went foolish on his reasoning, nothing really excuses ESPN’s treatment of the Rays. The whole network has really gone backwards on baseball, and I pretty much go to the MLB Network (except for Kevin Millar) for decent coverage these days.

by d_c_guy on Dec 1, 2025 5:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I haven't found ESPN's treatment of the Rays any worse than that of the Marlins.

but their 8 fans don’t make much of an uproar over it.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 1, 2025 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

So

a lack of fans validates a lack of journalistic integrity and common decency?

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

apparently, but they have had a lack of journalistic integrity and common decency

for years now. I’m not excusing it, it is what it is. I don’t even watch ESPN much for baseball because of their annoying nicknames and horrible coverage.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 1, 2025 6:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair

enough.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

nice comeback

jabbing at the attendance sore

by daveh33 on Dec 1, 2025 5:58 PM EST up reply actions  

it wouldn't be a sore if people showed up for the games.

They appear to have a lot of fans on websites and message boards, but it hasn’t translated to butts in the seats for whatever reason.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 1, 2025 6:02 PM EST up reply actions  

and I didn't mean that as a jab.

They have a competitive team with a lot of talent and young potential stars and more on the way. They should have much higher attendance.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 1, 2025 6:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Dec 1, 2025 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Some of this is definitely related to the horrible location of the stadium in the Tampa Bay Area.

No one wants to go out there as it’s inconveniently located 24 miles from downtown Tampa.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Dec 3, 2025 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I drive 35 miles to watch a pathetic Marlins team 5-6 times a year.

and I don’t even like the Marlins and they aren’t as competitive as the Rays are now.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 3, 2025 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Cool story bro.

My d***ie is leaking!

by SRQman on Dec 4, 2025 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

correction

he should at least get the number of times in the playoffs correct: 3 times in the last 4 seasons.

by tuna411 on Dec 2, 2025 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

lol

I see you like to troll.

Playoffs 3 of the past 4 years. Facts are facts. That is more than the Yanks can say.

Now I should expect you to ramble on about 27 rings and stuff that matters not one bit because the arguement was the the Rays have been beating up on the Yanks and Red Sox recently.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2025 6:14 PM EST up reply actions  

troll what? I'm here almost every day.

Yippee, the playoffs the last 3 of 4 years. Nothing before that for a decade or so. No titles in that span though. I like the Rays, but making the playoffs 3 of 4 years isn’t beating up on the Yankees and Red Sox. There’s no need to talk about the Yankees titles except maybe the 1 they won in the last 4 years when the Rays were busy beating up on them.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 1, 2025 6:22 PM EST up reply actions  

You've got a point.
Nothing before that for a decade or so

I was looking into this and are you all aware the Rays didn’t win a SINGLE GAME in the 1997 season??? AND not a SINGLE FAN showed up! Simply shameful. Someone alert the Worldwide Leader, stat!

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Dec 1, 2025 10:54 PM EST up reply actions   3 recs

The Rays actually won quite a few games before 1998.

Just no one was there to watch it. And you’re correct, I do have a point considering the Rays have existed 14 years and did not make the playoffs their first 10 seasons. Hence the “nothing before that for a decade or so” comment.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 2, 2025 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

The Rays are over .500 against the Red Sox though.

so Rays fans can claim they have been beating up on the Red Sox the last 4 years.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 1, 2025 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, since I'm in Florida, I like seeing the Florida teams do well.

I’d rather watch the Rays in the playoffs than the Red Sox.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 1, 2025 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Booooo....

Get off the stage!

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Dec 1, 2025 10:55 PM EST up reply actions  

have you at least been to New York

or are you like 90% of the Yankees fans outside the State of NY, who just saw a hat with NY on it in Wal-Mart and now are a Yankees fan.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 2, 2025 11:35 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Considering I was born in NY and still have family there, yes I've been there.

I’m also a Yankees fan because when I moved to Florida there were no teams in Florida and the Yankees games were broadcast on the local channels down here before cable tv existed. The Yankees also used to have spring training about 10 minutes from where I lived. Now I usually take in a few ST games a year in Tampa or when they play the Rays. I’ll drive 250 miles to watch my team play but most Rays fans won’t cross the Howard Frankland Bridge to watch the Rays.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 2, 2025 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

You are one of the few than

Most Yankees fans I’ve met in my time in North Carolina and Florida have never been North of Virginia in their whole lives.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 3, 2025 2:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Wait a second ...
Playoffs 3 of the past 4 years. Facts are facts. That is more than the Yanks can say

Except that it’s not. The Yankees didn’t make the playoffs in ’08, but they have made the playoffs in the last three seasons, finishing first, second and first in the division (winning the Wild Card and their ALDS series in ’10). And, of course, a WS win in 2009.

by d_c_guy on Dec 2, 2025 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I read somebody joke that if Castro was a Ray he'd be #1.

I was under the impression that ESPN loves the Rays…and Law looooooooves the A’s.

by SenorGato on Dec 3, 2025 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I meant to write Law looooooooooves the Rays.

Most of the rest is true, though I guess I didn’t think too much about what ESPN thinks…Haven’t seen that network in a long time.

by SenorGato on Dec 3, 2025 11:49 PM EST up reply actions  

i feel like

in general the 1B guys are too high

by blue bulldog on Dec 1, 2025 2:32 PM EST reply actions  

RE: Avila

I’m not an Insider, so I haven’t read the article, but after watching the Tigers grind Avila into the ground for no good reason, I’d be pretty hesitant with him too. There’s a pretty good chance he’s Russell Martin part 2.

by OldDutchPots on Dec 1, 2025 2:32 PM EST reply actions  

Its kind of funny.

His report was very positive on him. It was the upside issue that he was worried with. Am I the only one that finds that funny?

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2025 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree on 2010 possibly being Posey's best year with the bat

For a similar example with a young catcher (actually a year younger at the time) look no further than Brian McCann’s 2006 season. Obviously he’s still been very valuable since, but he still hasn’t come close to topping that .333/.388/.572 season and his wRC+ hasn’t been with 15 points of that since 2008.

BTW, I don’t have insider, so could someone let me know where any Braves ranked?

by nixa37 on Dec 1, 2025 2:40 PM EST reply actions  

Braves

Heyward 12th
Freeman 29th
Hanson 40th
Beachy 47th
Kimbrel 49th
Minor 50th

http://bullpenbanter.com

RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage

by gatling on Dec 1, 2025 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

His reasoning makes sense, though

Hanson - Injury concerns
Kimbrel - Relievers are only valuable
Beachy - ceiling isn’t the greatest

I can’t really fault him for any of those problems.

by aCone419 on Dec 1, 2025 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't get the low ceiling for Beachy though.

I understand his reasoning for saying he has a lower ceiling, but it seems a bit over-the-top. I see the reasoning, I just don’t agree with it.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2025 4:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Same here, feels like his draft/prospect status is still being held against him

I mean the current combination of strikeouts and walks is already near elite. Unless you expect his stuff to regress or don’t trust his durability, I’m not sure I see much that limits his ceiling.

by nixa37 on Dec 1, 2025 6:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Except that

In effect, Law said that he felt that his stuff would regress, given that part of his success is based on deception, and that this becomes less and less effective the more times that a batter sees him, especially at the big league level.

by A Behemoth on Dec 2, 2025 5:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Beachy never struck me as a guy who benefits from deception

Did Law clarify what he meant by deception? I mean, Beachy pitches up in the zone which helps increase K rate, with a by product being more BB and HR, but his motion is one of the more straightforward you will see. The other problem with that theory is that it hasn’t played out that way so far, as Beachy was pitching as well or better in August and September than he was early in the season.

Honestly, like I said, I think people like Law expect him to regress because they didn’t see this coming and still aren’t sure exactly how it happened. The answers seem pretty obvious IMO. He was raw as could be coming out since in college he was a position player who would come in as a RP if needed, so the rapid improvement shouldn’t be a surprise, and he added a plus slider last offseason which he uses about as well as anyone in baseball (whiff rate of over 20%).

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

love beachy law definitely missed on this one

bill james has beachy as the 2nd most likely pitcher to throw a no hitter in 2012.

by DeathSpeculum on Dec 2, 2025 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Much appreciated

Honestly a lot more than I was expecting and much higher on Freeman that I imagined. Not sure he even ranked that high on his prospect list and he said in chats that Freeman’s performance this year was what he expected and didn’t change his future expectations at all.

by nixa37 on Dec 1, 2025 6:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Freeman will have a better career than Heyward

I love Freeman’s swing. Can go the other way and has good power. The kind of swing that should make him a great RBI guy in the middle of the Braves order.

by emoofb on Dec 2, 2025 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

I hope not

Not because I like Heyward more or anything, but because if Freeman turns out better Heyward just didn’t come close to turning out like he should have (seriously he had a 5 WAR season at 20 and even at his ceiling Freeman will struggle to get to 5).

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Ha! Write this one down and look at it again in a couple of years.

Do you know how many people have been as good as Heyward in the big leagues, at 20?

Here are the career leaders up through age 20 in Adjusted OPS+, according to BB-Ref:

1. Ted Williams
2. Mel Ott
3. Ty Cobb
4. Mickey Mantle
5. Jimmie Foxx
6. Frank Robinson
7. Dick Hoblitzell <—dead ball era
8. Alex Rodriguez
9. Tony Conigliaro
10. Jason Heyward

He was hurt last year. Considering that up to that point he was one of the best young hitters in history, I think a little slack is in order.

by PissedMick on Dec 3, 2025 7:37 PM EST up reply actions  

hah

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Dec 3, 2025 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

generally not done

but can I put in a request for where any Jays ranked?

by gabrielsyme on Dec 1, 2025 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

your welcome

01. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
02. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
03. Mike Stanton, Marlins
04. Buster Posey, Giants
05. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
06. Starlin Castro, Cubs
07. Eric Hosmer, Royals
08. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
09. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
10. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
11. Mike Trout, Angels
12. Jason Heyward, Braves
13. Cameron Maybin, Padres
14. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
15. Desmond Jennings, Rays
16. Logan Morrison, Marlins
17. Brett Anderson, A’s
18. Alex Avila, Tigers
19. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
20. Michael Pineda, Mariners
21. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
22. Jay Bruce, Reds
23. Brandon Belt, Giants
24. Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
25. Mat Latos, Padres
26. Neftali Feliz, Rangers
27. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
28. Trevor Cahill, A’s
29. Freddie Freeman, Braves
30. Derek Holland, Rangers
31. Zach Britton, Orioles
32. Austin Jackson, Tigers
33. Aroldis Chapman, Reds
34. Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
35. Justin Smoak, Mariners
36. Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks
37. Rick Porcello, Tigers
38. Peter Bourjos, Angels
39. Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
40. Tommy Hanson, Braves
41. Hank Conger, Angels
42. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
43. Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays
44. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
45. Jemile Weeks, A’s
46. Ivan Nova, Yankees
47. Brandon Beachy, Braves
48. Mike Leake, Reds
49. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
50. Mike Minor, Braves

H.M. Jose Altuve, Travis Snider, Jon Niese, Ben Revere, Michael Brantley, Jordan Lyles, Jason Kipnis, Mike Moustakas, Andrew Cashner

by Vega-0021 on Dec 1, 2025 3:54 PM EST reply actions   4 recs

k-law

This ranking only includes players who have lost their Rookie of the Year eligibility, but were born on or after July 1, 1986.

by Vega-0021 on Dec 1, 2025 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

then why Trout?

or am I misunderstanding?

by PrincetonCubs on Dec 1, 2025 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Well
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

I’m assuming he’s crossed the “b” threshold, that BA (and most prospect evaluators) ignore.

by auclairkeithbc on Dec 1, 2025 4:23 PM EST up reply actions  

ahhh

but then this—apparently, when he got sent down didn’t actually “count” under MLB rules. forgive me, if this was common knowledge:

http://www.realsportszone.com/forum/showthread.php/31045-Mike-Trout-can-t-be-the-2012-ROY

by PrincetonCubs on Dec 1, 2025 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

ahh, but not so fast

apparantly MLB has clarified that Trout does still qualify as a rookie

http://twitter.com/#!/billplunkettocr/status/142742965721382912

by oater on Dec 2, 2025 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

man, this is confusing

if the “less than 20 days” rule existed, not sure why it wouldn’t apply…

by PrincetonCubs on Dec 3, 2025 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

So that's why Felix isn't on the list.

If the cutoff were April1, 1986, he’d have to be #1, right?

RIP Greg Halman

by WhyGodWhy on Dec 1, 2025 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Read the article!

It gives the cutoff dates. If you’re favorite player/obvious omission isn’t there, it’s probably because he didn’t qualify. I don’t think the Top 50 list should have even been published, but perhaps that was free content.

by killa on Dec 2, 2025 12:08 AM EST up reply actions  

anyone have thoughts on why hudson is so low?

looks like an ace to me. shocked to see him below cahill who k’s less, walks more and has a fip/xfip that’s at least .5 higher

by DeathSpeculum on Dec 2, 2025 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

if you're referring to Dan Hudson

watched almost every start of his this year…..i really liked his stuff last year (ironically, he was basically a two-pitch pitcher last year), but for some reason the pitches just weren’t as amazing this year.

command seemed to be imperfect the whole year. his changeup when he’s commanding it well is absolutely filthy, but it just wasn’t there consistently this year. also, he really liked to pitch down in the zone this year, when last year, most of his success came from pitching up in the zone. i definitely think he was trying to up his groundballs, but that barely worked (increased up to slightly over 40%) and really, it’s not even worth it to increase his groundball rate because of how insanely good our defense is. he should definitely go back to trying to rack up more strikeouts with fastballs up in the zone.

i think he settles down as a 3.5 xFIP guy as opposed to an ace.

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Since 2000

only 15 pitchers have cumulative xFIP’s of 3.58 or lower, and only 12 at 3.50 or lower. If Hudson settles in as an 3.5 xFIP pitcher, he is an ace.

by cookiedabookie on Dec 2, 2025 11:05 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

because pitchers get injured

i’m not taking into account injury risk when i say that

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 11:05 PM EST up reply actions  

?

Not sure I follow what you are trying to say here.

by cookiedabookie on Dec 3, 2025 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

i'm pretty sure

you just used the Fangraphs leaderboard search right? because i come up with 12 pitchers at 3.50 FIP or lower if i used your search criteria on Fangraphs

but that search is based on qualifying pitchers (not sure why Pineda is on that list, might be a glitch). if you re-search setting a 100 IP minimum, the list increases dramatically. your 12 pitcher list doesn’t take into account injuries, not-enough innings pitched in the majors, etc.

to be fair though, i was just trying to pick a number that would put him among the top 15-25 pitchers in baseball over the next four years (the time he’s with the Dbacks), so i’ve probably overestimated his xFIP somewhat. interestingly enough, FIP’s around 3.50 would put you in that 15-25 range.

i also don’t consider that range of a pitcher to be an ace, but that’s just a terminology issue. i think there are maybe around 5 aces in baseball, definitely not more than 8.

by blue bulldog on Dec 3, 2025 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Smoak above the likes of Hanson and Beachy? WTF. Does even one person who share this opinion?

by bigboy1234 on Dec 1, 2025 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

How about the Chapman rating too?

Chapman above Hellickson?

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2025 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I do

But I generally prefer hitters over pitchers, and I’m not discounting his playing 1B.

A bat is a bat is a bat.

by BigG'S on Dec 1, 2025 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

suprised Maybin ranks that highly what he excels at on the basepaths and defensively

He still makes me shudder most every time at the plate, where’s the consistent approach?

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 1, 2025 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Sad there are no Red Sox.

Even the young guys are too old now.

by abbreviatedman on Dec 1, 2025 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Is this allowed?

Seems like this could be a little sketchy to post protected material.

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Dec 1, 2025 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe it is.

I’ve seen other do it before. Not good reasoning on my part, but I wouldn’t be the first to be wrong about it.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2025 11:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Your post is fine

I am referring to the guy posting the entire list.

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Dec 1, 2025 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I know that.

I’m not sure where the specific information is regarding this, but I know people often post stuff that gets put behind pay-walls.

by mr. maniac on Dec 2, 2025 12:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly!

How would John feel if you posted his prospect book for free? How would he feel if you gave away the pay work he did for Rotowire? People need to understand that stealing this work isn’t right.

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Dec 3, 2025 12:12 AM EST up reply actions  

john is diffferent

this is espn.. who gives a …. about em

by matthewmafa on Dec 3, 2025 4:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Hope you don't expect to ..

make any money of your intellectual property.

by slacker george on Dec 3, 2025 11:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Just ignore the guy

It is obvious he doesn’t want to respect John’s wishes on the subject.

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Dec 3, 2025 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

A greater crime would be

charging someone actual currency to read a list that is that awful.

by reillocity on Dec 3, 2025 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Really?

I like of few of the rankings, but this isn’t close to what my list would look like..anyone agree?

by twinsfan23 on Dec 1, 2025 4:56 PM EST reply actions  

yes, I now what his xFIP is thinking about him, but cmon....

I dont believe he is worse than Porcello at this point

before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!

by orli on Dec 1, 2025 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

it was the 5.5 K per 9 more than anything

thats salitn his reputation….

But i find it all very laughable he could come back next year and easily K 6.5 per 9 WHICH IS PLENTY GOOD enough

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 1, 2025 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

somewhat agree

I think Hellickson and Jay Bruce are the most underrated.

Maybin (over Jennings!), Britton (over Hudson, Chacin, and Hanson!) and Parra (why?) are higher than I’d have them.

I’m not sure my top 10 would look all that different, though…Castro and Hosmer might be a tad high, but I’d still have them in a top 10.

by PrincetonCubs on Dec 1, 2025 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Law

also said in his chat that a source internally inside the Pirates said there was no way the team would pony up enough bank to sign Cutch to an extension and that a trade is imminent (extrapolating a bit).

So, as I rage and cry, who wants to come up with some super fun trade proposals.

First, lets set out Cutch’s trade value. Dave Cameron on McCutchen’s trade value this past July.. Cameron ranked him 6th.

#6 – Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh: +11.8

Already a terrific all-around player, McCutchen has added power this year and made himself into a legitimate MVP candidate at age 24. His broad base of skills suggests that he’ll age extremely well, there’s no injury history to worry about, and the Pirates control his rights for four more years after this one. They haven’t yet locked him up to a long term deal, but even if he goes through the arbitration process, he’ll still be a tremendous bargain. If you want to start handing out praise for why baseball is relevant in Pittsburgh again, start with McCutchen.

I would argue that McCutchen is one of the most valuable player traded in recent memory if he were traded this offseason, or even at the end of July (if not the most valuable).

The reason for that value

a) 3.5 - 4 years left of control and he isn’t a super two player
b) has no discernible hole in his game
c) plenty of upside left
d) is coming off a 5.7 WAR year playing the entire season at age 24

The team that makes the most sense to me to partner with the Pirates is the Rangers. They are obviously in contention mode, and CF could certainly use an upgrade. Craig Gentry and Endy Chavez mainly manned CF for the Rangers last year. Both were serviceable, but they lack upside etc. Leonys Martin a solid prospect, but not a reason to prevent a trade with Pittsburgh.

Therefore, my proposal would be…

McCutchen

FOR

Jurickson Profar
Leonys Martin
Mike Olt
Neil Ramirez
Roman Mendez

Now, go ahead and burn me at the stake.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 5:48 PM EST reply actions  

lol

by daveh33 on Dec 1, 2025 6:00 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Thanks

for the feedback….

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 6:07 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

5.7 WAR isn't breaking out?

RIP Greg Halman

by WhyGodWhy on Dec 1, 2025 8:21 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Right.....

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 9:00 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I guess

Not trying to be mean honestly, but what is your definition?

I mean he was the 21st most valuable positional player in baseball last year via fangraphs WAR. He tied Beltre in WAR, meaning he would have been tied for the 2nd most valuable player on the Rangers last year.

It’s not inconceivable (and I’d argue it’s almost expected) that he continues to improve and produces 6-8 WAR per year over the next 4 years. That’s an elite player in my eyes.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you have a legitimate point here, but you're also probably a little optimistic about that development path

McCutchen’s already one of the better positional players in the game, he’s only 25, and he has three more team-controlled years. His trade value is incredibly high as is, but while I think he’ll improve a tad, that kind of production on an annual basis might be a little much to hope for.

Profar and change seems entirely reasonable to me for Cutch, but I don’t think the return would be anywhere in the area of Profar and 4 high upside players. It’d be a huge chunk out of their farm - not that they wouldn’t trade these guys, just that I don’t see them all going in the same deal. I’d think they would look to use their assets a bit more effectively than that.

by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2025 9:06 AM EST up reply actions  

didn't ask for enough

Why not colby, kinsler and ca$$h money too?

by tuna411 on Dec 2, 2025 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Ya

5-7 WAR is probably a better projection. That may even be a tad high.

I understand the fear of trading multiple elite prospects, but I’m just of the strong impression that Profar + Martin + Olt at the minimum is a fair deal.

If the Rangers disagree fine, but I see there being absolutely no chance of the Pirates making a trade right now unless they are blown away in that fashion, nor should they.

If a ridiculous offer doesn’t materialize, simply hold onto McCutchen, continue trying to extend him, and then trade him away July 31st of 2015, or if they are in contention that year, let him walk and pick up two draft picks.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 2, 2025 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

I mean

look at what Hunter Pence got. A player with less upside, 1.5 years left of control less than McCutchen, and his highest WAR in a season was 4.7, which was last year.

He brought back two top 50-75 prospects at the time, and another dude with very good upside in Santana, plus a 4th player (admittedly, that 4th player was basically filler).

If Singleton = Martin and
Cosart = Olt and
Santana = Grimm (which I think all 3 together, roughly even out)

then I’m asking for Profar, and say Barret Loux as a the difference between Cutch and Pence. I think that’s pretty fair, probably in the Rangers favor actually.

Your point is a good one about that they could just spend those assets elsewhere.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 2, 2025 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

You can't have Profar, Olt, Perez.

I’m trading Mat Latos for them.

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Dec 3, 2025 4:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Haha

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 3, 2025 12:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair

enough. What do you think would be fair? Any other teams potentially get involved?

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Braves almost certainly get in on it

I’d be okay with Teheran, Delgado/Vizcaino, and Simmons/Pastornicky. What are the Pirates biggest needs?

by nixa37 on Dec 1, 2025 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Everything

except 2B and the OF really.

I think the Pirates would want a bit more than that. At least extra volume..

Maybe throw in.. using John’s list Hoover.. or Spruill? or maybe a couple of low-level lottery tickets. Drury maybe? John has him ranked low, but admits that the media (and maybe the Braves and their fans?) like him much more than that.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 6:46 PM EST up reply actions  

too much

If the Pirates could get Teheran, Vizcaino, and Simmons for McCutchen, even with the high attrition rate of pitching prospects, they’d have to be crazy not to take that package. It’s rare to see even one upper minors potential frontline arm dealt, let alone two in the same trade, and you’re getting a plus glove shortstop prospect. Another team might offer more players, but they’re not going to come close to the overall talent level of those three.

I could maybe see a throw-in or two, but I don’t think the Braves would be likely to part with anything too substantial with regard to either floor or ceiling.

by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2025 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't take that package.

Because of the " high attrition rate of pitching prospects" and because their system is pitching heavy.

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by JD Sussman on Dec 2, 2025 10:01 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't see why all the pitching in their system would pose a problem

You really cannot have too much young pitching. Any quality guys you don’t have room for are easily traded. The focus needs to be on getting the most talent, the rest can be figured out as need be.

Also, much of the pitching in the Pittsburgh system is at least 2-3 years away from the majors. Teheran is major league ready and Vizcaino is either ready now or close to it, depending on his role. It seems pretty clear that Pittsburgh wants to establish a pipeline of quality arms. For example, they didn’t seem to really consider anybody but a pitcher at 1-1 last year, despite having a premium college player in Rendon and a toolshed in Starling on the board. This trade would get them frontline talent in the majors now. Adding a an infielder with a good glove up the middle to help out that staff is just icing on the cake.

by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2025 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

It's two reasons

You’re talking about the second, which is fine. If this is the best offer, then obviously it doesn’t matter. Take this one. But, if there is a comparable one with bats, I’d prefer that.

Then there is first part, which you didn’t address. This isn’t enough for me. History has shown that young pitchers are extremely volatile. I’m not risking trading an asset (which Blue does a great job of evaluating, but is probably low on due to overstating what he’ll get in ARB) for just half his value. It’s not nearly enough.

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by JD Sussman on Dec 2, 2025 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Are you really going to put that much faith in the prospect value numbers?

So you would trade guys like Moore, Miller, Teheran, etc. for any hitter that cracks the top 50? If not, then you inherently agree the numbers aren’t actually reflective of prospect value.

And its not half of Cutch’s value either. Teheran and Viz/Delgado already get you over 30 MM and then you’ve got Simmons who BA has already said will crack their top 100, so that gets us to ~45 MM in value. If you agree that you wouldn’t trade a top 10 pitcher for any top 50 hitter (23.4 MM in value), than we’re already in the 52-53 million range in value, and just a Hoover or Spruill away from basically even value.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 11:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Which

is exactly what I asked for right?

Teheran, Viz, Simmons, and Hoover/Spruill.

I see that as being fairly enough, although the Pirates may pass on that 3rd pitcher and see if they can get a Drury or Bethancourt instead.

As JD pointed out, while the adage is you can never have too much pitching, the Pirates would be dangerously close if they add Teheran and Vizcaino to Cole, Taillon, Heredia, and Allie + a pretty damn good amount of depth past that.

Point being, I think the Pirates are gonna want 2 bats back at the minimum for Cutch to address that need in the farm system, and I’d think they even prefer the bats to be the highlight of the deal, which isn’t really happening here anyway.

Still, I think the Pirates would jump on a 4 player deal from the Braves including those 3 mentioned.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 2, 2025 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah I thought your proposal was reasonable

Though like I said, I might push for the ability to choose which of Viz/Delgado and/or Simmons/Pastornicky the Pirates would get in return.

And honestly, I don’t know how that would be dangerously close to too much pitching, considering Cole is probably at least a year off, Taillon is probably 2, and Allie and Heredia are about as far away as you can get. The Pirates should be looking to build a pipeline of pitching like the Braves have over the past few years with Jurrjens, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Kimbrel, and now Teheran, Vizcaino, and Delgado. If you don’t have a ton of money to spend, the ability to bring in a new 2+ WAR pitcher earning the minimum every single year is invaluable.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Quickly, because I have to run
Are you really going to put that much faith in the prospect value numbers?

If you read Voros’s work, the numbers make a ton of sense. What you mean by “that much,” I have no idea. They are great for approximating.

So you would trade guys like Moore, Miller, Teheran, etc. for any hitter that cracks the top 50?

I already try and account for the injury factor in my rankings. Though, I am not as harsh as Voros’s research suggests. Not to mention there is a big difference between someone’s value and their talent, but that’s another discussion.

I don’t have Vizcaino or Delgado has high as you do, apparently.

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by JD Sussman on Dec 2, 2025 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Enough faith that you would take a 25-50 SP over a top 10 one

And your second paragraph says it all. Unless you don’t have a single pitcher in your top 25 or so, than you inherently agree that the best pitching prospects are worth significantly more than Wang’s numbers suggest.

And how low do you have Delgado and Viz? As long as you have them in your top 75 prospects, that’s still less than a 4 MM difference according to Wang’s research.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

just because they are volatile assets does not mean they are not valuable assets

Obviously it makes sense to practice diversification when it comes to young pitching. That doesn’t mean that the individual value of each of those assets is somehow diminished. If you’d like to say that generally speaking it would make more sense for the Pirates to target position players rather than pitching, then sure, I can buy that argument. But when you start talking about specific players, there’s more information to work with.

by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2025 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Nixa and Kupe

Boys, lets start over now that I’m not running out the door…

just because they are volatile assets does not mean they are not valuable assets

Kupe, that’s just a strawman. I didn’t say that they weren’t assets, but their (the group of SPs) risk hurts their value. Fair?

The value numbers are only projections when it comes to an individual basis. As I said, it’s an approximation about a group. It isn’t about an individual. You need to adjust the numbers depending on your feelings about a certain player. (i.e. Matt Moore isn’t simply “Top 10” nor was Strasburg.). But, it would be unwise to dismiss the statistics about group’s value because of one’s feelings about an individual.

Nixa, lets start over…

As a group, due to their volatility and injury risks, pitching prospects are less valuable than comparably talented hitting prospects. However, one cannot predict an individual pitcher’s injury future. So, to account for it on a large scale one’s rankings is unwise (for example, say you think Matt Moore is an ‘A’ grade talent, but downgrading him to a “b+” because of the risk, and you apply the same rationale for each pitcher). The truth is, you can’t predict the injury, the valuation numbers is a commentary on the fact that, as a class, pitchers are more likely to get hurt than hitters. Again, as an individual, who really knows the chances?

So, if one is confident in his ability to say that a particular won’t get hurt, then bump his value up. But, unless that person has a degree in bio-mechanics, there opinion doesn’t mean anything to me personally. Thus, I apply the downward evaluation almost evenhandedly for pitchers and vary the value projection based upon how far away they are from the major leagues.

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by JD Sussman on Dec 2, 2025 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

You didn't address the biggest point though

Would you take your garden variety 25-50 hitter over your garden variety top 10 pitching prospect? Would you take your garden variety top 10 pitching prospect over your garden variety 25-50 pitching prospect? I would hope not, and that would mean you inherently don’t actually trust the numbers. I just don’t think they can be used as a sole basis to say the trade doesn’t provide enough value.

My take is that the numbers are historical in nature, while prospecting is a developing, evolving field. I don’t think the flaws in past methods of prospecting (or even developing pitchers by the teams themselves) predicts that those same things will continue to happen. Besides, those numbers are pretty old at this point. Wang produced the research back in 2007 based on lists from 1990-1999, a period which saw them hit big on just one top 10 guy (Pedro) and miss multiple times on the likes of Todd Van Poppel (3 times), Salkeld (twice), Taylor (twice), and Matt White (twice). I honestly think those guys by themselves badly skew the numbers (they account for roughly 30% of the sample size by themselves), as does the fact that we just didn’t see nearly as many good pitchers come up in that decade looking back on it.

I don’t know, I just think those numbers are of extremely limited value when we’re trying to evaluate how much today’s prospects are worth. You seem to agree to a certain extent when you talk about looking at the players as individuals. If you believe that, why are you suggesting the package is light based off of those values?

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

it depends on which top 10 pitching prospect and which top 25-50 hitting prospect

it’s like Sussman said, the value numbers are a guideline to give you an idea of what is approximately fair, and then you need to use your own ability to analyze prospects to figure out how to adjust the package

as you’ve noticed, the Top 50 pitching prospects that BA pumps out are flawed. so would i trade a 25-50 hitter for Matt Moore? assuredly not. would i trade a 25-50 hitter for Teheran? depending on the hitter, maybe.

i agree too though, that the data is different now. apparently the Royals blog had a similar study done with updated prospects up until 2005, and it showed that the value of prospects has increased somewhat since Wang’s research.

i think though that overall this ist he right approach, and will get you pretty close to the right prospect package (i’m thinking something like Profar/Martin/Olt). i also cannot stress enough that when you trade for a face of the franchise, you have to pay a premium (which is why in general, you shouldn’t be trading for a face of the franchise in the first place)

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the approach works well enough for hitters

I don’t think it works at all for pitchers because it gives every single pitcher ranked from #1-#50 essentially the exact same value, which obviously couldn’t be any further than how things work in reality. Not to mention, the huge issue of just 4 guys skewing the values to a large degree.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Have to forgive me for being brief.

Busy busy busy rt. now.

Simple valuation calculation.

Top 10 pitcher has a 25% chance at being a 5 win pitcher at $5M per win.

Top 25 hitter has a 50% chance 3 win hitter at $5M per win.

These are the only outcomes.
Whose more talented? Pitcher. Whose more valuable? The hitter.

The problem is you know the percentages of success are lower for the group of pitchers than the group of hitters, but you don’t know what the true percentage of outcomes is for an individual - hitter or pitcher, but due to injuries pitchers are still more risky.

Thus, when trading you need to account for both the individual’s talent and his volatility. Given that baseball trades are generally not risk adverse, and I personally believe you win with star players, I wouldn’t trade the hitter for the pitcher. However, that does not mean you don’t take into account that the pitcher is more risky in a trade situation (whereas you may not on a list).

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by JD Sussman on Dec 2, 2025 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

No one is saying you should ignore the risk

I’m suggesting you shouldn’t use estimated values that are clearly flawed to try and show that some package doesn’t offer enough value. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t hold Teheran’s risk against him. It means you shouldn’t treat as lesser or equal in value to a pitcher that ranks #50 in baseball, which you were doing by using Wang’s numbers as evidence the package was too light.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

what is the % chance that the pitcher is a 3 WAR player?

Or, what is the % chance that the hitter becomes a 5 WAR player? By comparing the chances of a 3 WAR player to a 5 WAR player, you are comparing apples to oranges.

by Looney4baseball on Dec 2, 2025 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Loon-

That’s how I typically do my projections. This is an example of valuation where
Upside * Risk = Value. See some of my stuff at BB with projections.

Nixa, you’re totally missing the point, so I think I’m done here. I just don’t have the time to be any more clear. The numbers aren’t flawed. Using a number that applies to a broad class for an individual as definitive metric is flawed. I never did that. That doesn’t mean the numbers don’t have value in helping us explain player value.

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by JD Sussman on Dec 2, 2025 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

"I'm not risking trading an asset for just half his value"

Maybe I’m misunderstanding how you’re coming with the values you’re talking about here. I cut out the part of the quote where you mentioned Blue Bulldog’s breakdown for determining the values. Since he was using Wang’s value for the prospect package, I figured that’s where you were coming up with the 1/2 his value part. If you meant something different, my bad, that’s just how I read it.

However, I do think we can explain prospect value much prospect value much better by citing trades than by looking at Wang’s research. Like I’ve mentioned, I don’t think his numbers reflect how things are currently. First of all, teams don’t seem to follow it in valuing packages. Positional prospects don’t trade at a premium compared to pitching prospects. Second, the numbers just don’t seem that relevant IMO. Like I’ve mentioned, the rankings he looked at are over a decade old, 4 pitchers who busted show up in his numbers as 11 failures, and there just weren’t that many great pitchers who came up as prospects in the time period he looked at, especially when we compare it to the decades before and after. I’m just not sure why you would over look those factors.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

we're describing two separate phenomenon imo

you can’t explain prospect “value” by citing past trades (i think this is what you meant). that only tells you what two particular parties felt about those prospects.

it’s sorta the same idea i was trying to express in a different thread to mrkupe. baseball isn’t a free market. in fact, if baseball were a free market, you wouldn’t be able to take advantage of other market players by buying low/high etc. that’s not a good way of figuring out value, in the objective sense, though, to be fair, it may serve as a fine practical baseline for what might happen in reality (in terms of negotiation between teams on trades).

i guess i don’t care about that as much. to me, what happens in reality is heavily influenced by a bunch of people who likely don’t understand markets and proper valuation. i just want to figure out what i think is objectively a fair trade, so then when the final trade happens, i can explain why i think that final trade is bad or good.

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

i admit

the sample size is a problem in general

however, i don’t think you should be characterizing it as “just 4 guys”. the 4 guys represent multiple data points, because BA had multiple chances to evaluate them and refine their analysis of those prospects.

to me, that screams a flaw in the analytical process BA uses to figure out which pitching prospects are better than others.

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Which is my whole point

I’m sure there process has changed considerably between the early 1990s and 2011/2012. The fact that they were bad at evaluating pitchers then does make today’s pitching prospects less valuable, but that’s exactly what people using Wang’s reasearch are saying.

And I think you missed my point on those 4 guys. Wang’s research makes it seem as if those 4 guys are 11 different top 10 pitchers who failed, which in turn makes top 10 pitchers look less reliable than they actually are. I understand your point that they represent different data points and BA had multiple chances to evaluate them, but you have to realize that their previous rankings are clearly going to have an effect on their future rankings. Not to mention that if those guys failed due to injury, it makes injuries among top 10 pitching prospects seem more likely than they actually are.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

sorry

for having to write this on essentially two different threads (mentioned below)

1) i agree that the previous rankings are clearly going to have an effect on their future rankings; however

2) i think this says more about the flaws about BA’s evaluation than anything. they are too stuck up on the past. too much inertia.

finally, i think we just fundamentally disagree on how much BA has improved at evaluating pitchers. i don’t think they are that much better now than they were back then. i do think pitchers as a whole are more valuable now than back then. but i attribute that to a better understanding (of some organizations) on recognizing good pitchers (mostly through statistical analysis), and much much much more importantly, improvements in the medical sciences so that pitcher injuries are less devastating to their careers

honestly, if you think of BA has a standard “off-the-counter” investment strategy when it comes to prospects, most of us could fiddle around with the order of BA’s prospects, test our own strategies over and over again through the years, and come up with a better ranking system that improves upon the value of BA’s relative prospect rankings.

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Might say more later but the basic point is

Whether or not BA has gotten better at ranking pitchers (I think they clearly have, but whatever if you think they rank a HS draft pick #1 before he ever threw a pro pitch still, so be it), the pitchers they rank high are clearly more successful on average recently than they were in the 90s. In turn, the pitchers they rate highly now are more valuable than they were in the 90s.

I think another interesting point to note is that better pitchers are being produced now than they were in the 90s. This is mostly anecdotal, but I think as a group, pitchers who made their debuts in the 90s, just weren’t very good compared to those in the 80s or those in the 00s. When you think of the greatest pitchers of the past 20 years, how many (other than obviously Pedro) came up in the 90s? Maybe I’m just not remembering obvious ones, but I can’t think of too many. Other than Pedro, the best 2 I can find in ~5 minutes of searching are Mussina and Pettite.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 6:06 PM EST up reply actions  

If I'm the Braves, I'm probably okay with giving up 1-2 of those guys

With the trade off being that the Braves get to decide which player from the pairs of SP and SS (just 1 of 2 if the throw-in isn’t as good, but both if the throw-in has quite a bit of value) I listed instead of the Pirates.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure it is.

Then again, we don’t have a lot of precedents set for trading a guy with McCutchen’s value. Remember, all his age and talent is one thing, but he’s also financially appealing to any team. The Pirates also do not have to trade him yet, so the team that wants him will have to give up quite a bit.

We got into a discussion about this last year when it was rumored the Diamondbacks were looking to trade Justin Upton and more discussions were had when the “Yankees want Felix!” shenanigans came about later. In none of those discussions did the trade bits end up being anything but absurd. These kinds of trades just don’t happen, so theorizing what it would take, weighed against what history has shown us with other trades, brings about some lunacy.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 1, 2025 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Very

good points. I think the Miggy Cabrera trade (pointed out below) is probably the best there is as far as guideposts.

The control just makes him so valuable at this point.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Miguel Cabrera is the best established offensive star with more than one year of control left who’s been traded in the last decade. And while his offloading by the Worst Human Being in Professional Sports™ was more fire-sale-ish than whatever the Pirates might do, it’s worth remembering that Cabrera AND a pitcher who was thought to have significant value netted two top 50 guys and a bunch of detritus. Even with the additional two years of control for McCutchen if he’s moved this winter (a theory I don’t think I actually buy) it’s hard to imagine him going for a package worth so much more than the Cabrera/Willis deal.

by realitypolice on Dec 1, 2025 6:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe

throw in James McDonald (from the Pirates side) a #4-5 starter with similar years of control left, and #3 upside?

Even then, subtract one of the bottom two pitchers and instead add a C or C+ arm with some intrigue?

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 6:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that would be too much. Subtract Neil Ramirez and it would be fair

As a Pirates fan, would you say yes to Pineda, Smoak, Walker/Paxton, B prospect?

by MilesC on Dec 1, 2025 6:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh

That’s a pretty good offer.

If we take Paxton and not Walker (I like Walker a good bit more than Paxton) do you think the 4th guy could be Nick Franklin? I just think the Pirates have plenty of depth pitching-wise and would like to add two solid positional guys at the minimum.

Maybe Pineda, Smoak, Paxton and Nick Franklin and the Pirates throw in Kyle McPherson or Brad Lincoln (McPherson is a B- high floor, low ceiling pitcher in AA - Lincoln is probably similar except he’s major league ready, but already 26).

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I feel like the Mariners might be reluctant to trade their young, big-league players.

Felix’s contract is up after 2014, so they’re trying to compete before then. And considering the terrible offense, I doubt they sell low on Smoak.

Might something like Paxton, Walker, Franklin, Campos, and Guillermo Pimentel be enough to get it done?

RIP Greg Halman

by WhyGodWhy on Dec 1, 2025 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm

pretty sure I’d take that if I were the Pirates. Or at least take a long, hard look at that offer.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2025 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

Not being rude but, I actually laugghed at thaty one. Did you know that just Pineda for McCutchen isn’t a terrible deal for the Pirates, let alone the rest of the Ms system going over.

"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.

by casejud on Dec 2, 2025 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

No

I did not know that because it’s blatantly not true. It’s simply vastly overrating Pineda, a highly volatile SP that only throws 2 pitches which cripples his ceiling for right now. So we’re talking about a pitcher with what I would argue to be a #2 ceiling, unless he makes significant progress with his changeup and still has the floor of a reliever.

Yes he was amazing, but we are talking about a fairly small sample size and we are talking about a guy who got rocked the second half of the year as his velocity dipped and teams saw him for the second or third time (price of having only two pitches).

Plus the general risk that come with pitchers over hitters. Look at Law’s list. McCutchen, #2, Pineda #20. Using a rough comparison, if I offered you Trout for Drew Pomeranz, I’d expect extra in return.

More realistically, take Paxton out, and take out Lincoln/McPherson as well.

Cutch

for

Pineda
Smoak
Franklin.

Although, I do like WhyGodWhy’s proposal a bit more. It makes sense for both teams. If the Mariners sign Fielder, it makes sense for them to compete now.

If they offered say Paxton, Walker, Franklin, Pimental and a C+ prospect.. lottery ticket type guy

McCutchen and James McDonald (to add to their current rotation) I’d think that’d make alot of sense for both guys. They keep Hultzen, Pineda, and Smaok and could make a serious run at contention over the next few years.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 2, 2025 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Honestly, as long as the change is a "show me" type pitch, Pineda is fine

And it seemed to work just fine in that roll this year. He really just needs his third pitch to be able to keep batters honest. I just don’t see his current 3 pitch mix limiting his ceiling or making his floor a RP.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Andrew McCutchen

The problem with McCutchen is that he’s going to go through Arb soon, and he wasn’t locked up prior to going through arbitration. If the Pirates trade him this winter, he’s going to have three arb years with plus one minimum wage year for the other team (Cutch isn’t going up for Arb this year is he?).

Let’s say you think McCutchen averages 5 WAR per season (this seems about fair to me, if a little optimistic). That’s $25 million in surplus value in 2012. Between 2013-2015, if we estimate Arb values as 40-60-80 percent of production value, then the surplus value he would generate would be 1.2 years worth of surplus (again, this is largely an estimate). That would mean 2013-2015 surplus value would be around $30 million.

So basically, you’re looking at McCutchen getting you $55 million surplus value in the next few years. You would also need to pay a premium for the fact that Pirates lose their face of the franchise, and the marketing sales lost from that (jerseys, etc.). Let’s just randomly throw $5 million out there as an estimate (I think this is reasonable, if other people don’t, you can use a different number).

If you’re looking at prospects, that would mean the Pirates would want approximately $60 million worth of prospects back. We can look to this for a general guidance at what might be fair compensation.

So let’s say you’re going for quality (as opposed to quantity) and you want hitting prospects. McCutchen = Top 10 hitting prospect + Top 11-25 hitting prospect = Bryce Harper + Anthony Rendon.

What about adding pitchers to the equation? McCutchen = Top 10 hitting prospect + Top 25-50 pitching prospect + Top 76-100 hitting prospect = Jurickson Profar + Martin Perez + Mike Olt/Rougned Odor.

It should be noted that as scouting/statistical analysis has gotten better, it’s possible these values of prospects have also improved too. So maybe we’re underrating the prospects a little bit. But these seem to me to be pretty fair trades.

by blue bulldog on Dec 1, 2025 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

These factors always seem to underrate pitchers, but they seem fairly useful for hitters.

On the other hand, you have to watch out. If you do some calculations, Starlin Castro could be had for Alex Cobb and someone like Marquis Fleming.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2025 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

They don't.

They account for the high probability of pitcher injuries.

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by JD Sussman on Dec 1, 2025 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

also

if you look at the table, you will notice that BA’s evaluation of pitchers (at least during the time of the study) likely had flaws

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not talking about sheer value terms.

The market has heavily favored pitchers recently, deeming them of far more value than they actually are worth. Just go through a list of FA signings and trades of pitchers; there is plenty of overpayment.

by mr. maniac on Dec 2, 2025 12:06 AM EST up reply actions  

well, yes and no

There are two ways to value a player. One is the raw statistical calculus, which seems to be dominating this thread.

The other is monetary in nature: a player is worth whatever somebody will (or has to, perhaps) pay for him. In the context of the open market, I don’t believe there are very many players at all that have been overpaid. It might be different if MLB suddenly declared every player to be a free agent, but that’s not the case. I think the highly variable circumstances in which a player’s real monetary value are assessed tend to get overlooked, or maybe deemphasized in favor of production analysis developed using an unrealistic perception of the market.

by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2025 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

er........what?

“in the context of the open market, i don’t believe there are very many players at all that have been overpaid”

it depends on what you mean by “very many”, but the fact is, plenty of free agents get overpaid every single year.

MLB is not a liquid market. there are only thirty teams. moreover the various goods available (players) are not equal substitutes of one another, so it’s impossible to have a perfect competition market.

in fact, instead of a marketplace where buyers and sellers get to look at a ton of similar goods and thus have an easy way of comparing prices, baseball free agency (and trades too) are more like auctions, and winners of auctions tend to consistently overpay on their bids.

it’s not that “the highly variable circumstances in which a player’s real monetary value are assessed are being overlooked.” it’s simply that the economic system of baseball is set-up for teams to overpay on the “open market.”

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

totally disagree on the "overpaid" part of things

If plenty of players are getting overpaid every year, clearly it is our notion of “overpaid” that is flawed.

by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2025 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Plenty of players also get underpaid.

I get what you are saying though. There can’t be 90% of the players overpaid, 5% paid fairly, and 5 % underpaid.

by mr. maniac on Dec 2, 2025 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

have you ever thought about an auction

from a game theory standpoint?

let’s say a small group of oil companies are bidding for the drilling rights of an oil well. nobody knows the exact amount of oil in the well, but everyone has used their own proprietary metrics to figure out an estimate of the oil volume. in addition, nobody has a clear idea what the other companies are going to bid, as they are only working off rumors and rumors of rumors.

so what happens when they bid at auction? some companies inevitably will overbid, while some companies will underbid. overbidding, means that the price they pay for the drilling rights, is less than the value of the oil they get.

the problem is…..the government will always sell the drilling rights to the highest bidder, which is almost always going to be an overbid.

baseball has the exact same problem.

this becomes the biggest problem, when you’re talking about elite free agents and blockbuster trades, because they mirror the auction scenario the closest. unfortunately, this is also when the most cash changes hands.

so yes, a significant majority of the money in baseball is locked up in “overpaid” contracts.

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I do understand what you're saying, but

The perceived value of the asset is arbitrary in the first place. It’s set by what you’d think everybody else would value it at. And then if you wanted it, yes, technically you’d “overpay” for it . . .but for practical purposes, it’s worth what you thought you would need to pay to get it, and if you were willing to pay that price and did so, then it’s perfectly acceptable.

In other words, there’s a whole lot of money tied up in contracts for players who are worth more to their respective organizations than to other organizations. And this is why I’m very wary of using the term “overpaid” too literally here. Does that make sense?

by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2025 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

if you are referring

to the table suggesting the top 10 pitchers equal in value to the 25-50 pitchers

i think that just shows a flaw in BA’s valuation of pitchers

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly, now you're starting to get it

The issue isn’t so much that top pitching prospects are worth so much less than top hitting prospects, the issue is that BA wasn’t very good at evaluating pitching prospects in the 90s (especially the early 90s when they put Salkeld, Taylor, and Van Poppel in the top 10 a combined 7 times), which is what the study is based on. Why does BA doing a bad job ~20 years ago mean the rankings are just as worthless today?

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

well

a couple of things

1) I’ve been saying BA’s evaluation of pitching prospects is flawed for a long time now. This is just a “me sulking” point.

2) In general top pitching prospects are worth less than top hitting prospects. You could figure this out by taking the integral of all pitching prospect values vs. integral of all hitting prospect values. I think even without doing that though, it’s pretty intuitive.

3) I also freely admit that it’s true evaluations have gotten better this past decade than between 1990-2000. Again though, you can take a look at that Royals study to see that it’s still much more valuable to have hitting prospects than pitching prospects, because, likewise, scouts have gotten better at recognizing good hitters as well. Finally, I’m just not convinced that BA has gotten that much better at evaluating pitchers. They base their analysis almost solely off a scouting report. Is a scout in 2010 really going to give you all that much better of an idea of how good a pitcher is, than back in 2000? I’m skeptical. Scouting, after all, has been around a really long time. If anything, the revolution in prospects being worth more (pitching prospects in particular) is a combination of A) better statistical analysis; and B) better medical procedures. TJ is no longer as big a threat to completely derail a prospects career.

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

When did I say top hitting prospects aren't worth more?

I simply don’t think they are worth so much more that a 25-50 ranked hitting prospects is worth ~50% more than a top 10 pitching prospect.

As for your third point, I’d love a link to the Royals study to check it out, but the general problem is that you HAVE to use outdated data to evaluate this stuff in the first place, which severely limits its value in trying to project the value of prospects going forward. Besides, scouts getting better (and they probably have with an extra 20 years worth of collective knowledge) isn’t the only way BA can get better. Since those early lists, I’m sure they’ve gotten better at evaluating which scouts to trust the most (as they got more experience working with them), knowing which sorts of scouting profiles were most likely to succeed or fail, cultivating more scouting contacts, etc. Plus, I think they probably put a little more emphasis on stats. You don’t see HS pitchers ranking at the top of prospect lists before they pitch a full professional season anymore, like they did with both Van Poppel and Taylor, do you?

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

can't find the Royals link :(

it was sent in a thread by one of the billys…..

but yes. you are correct. i was wrong. i should have considered that (in terms of benefits gained over the extra years by knowing which scouts to trust more, cultivating more scouting contacts, etc.) it was too simple of me to simply categorize it as scouts now probably in general have the same knowledge as scouts back then, because of those two factors you described.

and you are right, they probably do have some emphasis on stats, that is more than back then.

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Dec 3, 2025 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

thanks!

just had to say this again, but this really is great work

by blue bulldog on Dec 4, 2025 1:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Harper plus Rendon is ridiculous

Partly because classifying Harper as merely ‘top 10’ is absurd, and partly because Anthony Rendon is arguably a top-10 hitting prospect himself.

by Brownson on Dec 1, 2025 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

even prospects

of Harper and Rendon’s calibre fail sometimes

particularly with Rendon’s medical history, i think many if not most would categorize him in the Top 11-25 range.

i grant you that categorizing Harper as Top 10 is probably underestimating his surplus value. as a consensus Top 3 guy, he’s assuredly higher than that expected $36 million surplus value figure out of the Top 11-25. obviously studies like that suffer from not having enough sample size to register expected values at each prospect rank, and thus, have to categorize via bins.

overall, it’s a pretty good estimate imo. definitely not “ridiculous”, though i’ll admit, the Rangers package probably makes more sense.

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 12:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Of course

there’s no precedent for youngbig league players establishing track records of elite performance through their first few years and then falling off significantly after that.

Sincerely,
Russell Martin, Hanley Ramirez, Nick Markakis, and Grady Sizemore

by realitypolice on Dec 2, 2025 12:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Markakis

and Hanley are weird (so I agree Cutch could fall into that “weird” category with them).

Martin is a C, and they are more volatile than CF’s from my experience.

Sizemore was due to injury (which is also possible).

Still, as per this article, you can’t find a much safer bet than McCutchen. The Nats would be crazy to trade Harper and Rendon, but that’s because Harper is an otherworldly prospect, as was kinda pointed out above.

The thing is, the Pirates don’t need to trade Cutch, so a team will probably have to overpay a bit.

Maybe something closer to..

Profar
Martin
Olt
Grimm
Interesting C+ guy (Engel Beltre? Wilmer Font? Matthew West? Barret Loux? - obviously not Mazara, Guzman, Akins)

I just think the Pirates have to get an elite duo or threesome back. They can’t just get quantity/depth. Profar, Martin, and Olt fill that role pretty well and fill holes the Pirates all seem to have (they don’t really need Martin, but then neither would the Rangers, so it makes sense).

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 2, 2025 2:47 AM EST up reply actions  

i do admit

that the Rangers set of prospects seems much more likely than the Nats set of prospects

Profar/Martin/Olt seems like fair value, given the premium that needs to be paid for McCutchen’s marketability in Pittsburgh

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 4:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd

hate to see Cutch go, but a 2015 Pirates lineup and rotation of…

CF - Marte
LF - Martin
RF - Tabata
1B - Alvarez
2B - Walker
3B - Olt
SS - Profar

1 - Cole
2 - Taillon

looks pretty appetizing. Obviously that’s a perfect world projection.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 2, 2025 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Harper is a "generational" type prospect

He holds way more value than your normal top 10 hitter. I think he clearly holds more value than your normal #1 hitter. I honestly don’t think I could move him straight up for Cutch unless I though it guaranteed me a title in the next 4 years.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 12:05 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

i can agree with this

at least the first part

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

subtract either Ramirez or Olt and put in Wilmer Font or somethin and then its close for me...

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 1, 2025 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

seems fair. do it Rangers do it

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Dec 2, 2025 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it speaks to the overvaluing of prospects in general

That a fan of divisional rival of Texas would rather the Rangers acquire Andrew McCutchen than stand pat with a bunch of minor leaguers (the bulk of whom haven’t seen AAA yet) in this make believe exercise.

by Matt0330 on Dec 2, 2025 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Never mind AAA

Only Leonys Martin has played above Hi-A, so AA would’ve worked.

by Matt0330 on Dec 2, 2025 3:38 PM EST up reply actions  

you may be right...

it appeals to me because the Rangers lose a lot of talent in that deal albeit for a great young player in Andrew McCutchen. I see the trade as harming the Rangers franchise long term especially when they have a prospect in Leonys Martin who makes the acquisition of McCutchen less meaningful

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Dec 2, 2025 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

shoud be
I see the trade as harming the Rangers franchise long term more than it would help them at present especially when they have a prospect in Leonys Martin who makes the acquisition of McCutchen less meaningful

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Dec 2, 2025 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I hear you, man

I could definitely see being happy about a guy like Jurickson Profar leaving the division of my favorite team even if the effect wouldn’t be felt until much later. Your view is valid obviously & even though I am more of a ‘bird in hand’ person in trades (theoretical & otherwise), I could see how this would be very attractive for the Pirates here (especially if they felt that signing McCutchen wasn’t feasible). If I were an Angels fan, I’d rather deal with Profar & Michael Olt in 2017 than McCutchen now & through 2014 or whatever, but we can disagree on that.

PS - I’m a little less high on Leonys Martin than many. It’s a simplistic comparison, but is he that much different at this stage (except older) than 2008 Julio Borbon?

by Matt0330 on Dec 2, 2025 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure...

I’ve always believed Martin a stronger OBP guy than Borbon, but I’ve never looked at the numbers. The comp has crossed me before.

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Dec 2, 2025 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

(especially if they felt that signing McCutchen wasn’t feasible)

Stupid Stupid Stupid.. sigh

It’s such an interesting debate. If the trade actually happened, you’d have to wait six years to see who “won”, but then the winner would be determined with the use of hindsight that would bias people evaluating the trade in a particular direction.

Assuming McCutchen is a semi-constant in the equation (4.5-7 WAR yearly over the next 4 year), it comes down to the prospects.

If Profar stalls out and only turns into a bench bat, Olt is a below-average 3B, and Martin becomes Juilo Borbon, the Pirates look like morons and the Rangers are geniuses. If Profar becomes a top 3 SS in baseball for a decade, Olt becomes a fringe all-star 3B and Martin also becomes a fringe all-star CF (or LF in Pittsburgh; Starling Marte), then the Pirates look pretty darn smart and the Rangers traded away 3 “all-stars” (which is what the newspapers will say).

Of course, if the Rangers get a championship, that won’t even really matter.

Please Pirates, just resign Cutch.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 2, 2025 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

'Stupid Stupid Stupid.. sigh'

Is that feedback? Love you too..

by Matt0330 on Dec 2, 2025 4:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh

sorry haha. It’s feedback, but it’s not describing you or your comments. It’s feedback that there is a solid chance the Pirates will be unable to extend McCutchen, which is upsetting (just look at my username).

Your point was just fine. I agree with it on basically every point.

Again, sorry. I assure you I meant no offense.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 2, 2025 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

No worries, duder

Thanks for the clarification either way. I was just a little bit confused because so many people use ‘sigh’ in a dismissive manner (which you didn’t here) and I wasn’t offended, but thanks just the same.

I hope Pittsburgh is able to extend McCutchen also. He’s fantastic and is a cornerstone type in just about every way.

by Matt0330 on Dec 3, 2025 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

without hindsight

i don’t like the trade for the Rangers. Mainly because Martin seems like a suitable CF already.

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Dec 2, 2025 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

We prefer Barry Zito

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Dec 2, 2025 3:51 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm puzzled by this entire discussion

Why would the Pirates trade McCutchen now? It seems to me his value is really too high, to both the Pirates and to a team trying to deal for him, to trade right now. He is valuable to the Pirates as a player and as a face of an organization trying to rebuild and give some fans a very good reason to pay attention. To other teams, the price in trade is so high I wonder why they wouldn’t just look elsewhere right now.

He’s under control for so long the Pirates would be absolutely stupid not to try to contend with him under control, especially with the wild card increasing the chances of making the playoffs soon. The added wild card spot both increase their chances of making the playoffs and potentially increases his value in trade in July of 2013 or 2014 or 2015 if you decide to sell.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Dec 3, 2025 1:57 AM EST up reply actions  

How would his value in trade increase

He’s so valuable because he’s under team control cheaply for 4 years. That’s the main selling point. If you wait at least 1.5 years, you’re maybe looking at 1/2 the value he currently holds. The Pirates are supposedly resigned to the fact that they won’t be able to resign Cutch. If they can get a massive hall for him this off-season, one that gives them players who should be big contributors when they’re ready to really contend in a couple years, doesn’t that make more sense long term than hoping the prospects are ready to make a real run before they lose him?

by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

This

I think it’s absolutely moronic to trade him, and if you offered me Profar, Olt, Martin + a bit more for McCutchen now or McCutchen playing for the Pirates for the next 4 years, and then him walking and the Pirates only getting two draft picks out of him, I’d take the latter.

I’m just going based off of KLaw’s reports.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 3, 2025 12:13 PM EST up reply actions  

So you're disagreeing then?

I would think as a Pirate fan I would think I’d want be happy getting a big return (though I’m not sure I think the Rangers off qualifies), but I honestly don’t know because I’ve never seen my team in this sort of situation before (I started following baseball in 91 and I’m a Braves fan, so I’ve been just a little spoiled).

Is there much of anything that would make you feel comfortable trading him, or is it one of those things where you’d rather hope for the best with the current face of the franchise and just deal with outcome when the time comes?

by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Um

I mean, if the Rangers called and offered Profar, Olt, Martin, Perez + more, or the Braves offered, Teheran, Viz, Beachy, Simmons, and Salcedo, etc. ya I think you have to pounce, but I think for what the Pirates will likely get, I’d rather just keep him.

We contended last year (although it was very fluky), Cutch is controlled for four more years, and we have Tony Sanchez, Starling Marte, Gerrit Cole, and Jameson Taillon who could all provide substantial help between then and now, and I still believe Pedro Alvarez can be a 3-4 WAR player. If the Pirates get a decent bit of luck (I don’t think it has to be ridiculous), they could have a solid team going into 2014, for example.

That would leave 2015 as a potential year similar to what happened to the Brewers. They mortgaged the farm and made the playoffs. The Pirates could do something similar. Plus, for the Brewers, they may get to actually keep Fielder. Same thing could happen with Cutch (or, looking at a decent core forming say after 2013, he could decide to sign prior to actually being a free agent).

From there (post 2015), just let him walk, or if in a few years from now, the Pirates have their prospects backslide, he could be traded in July of 2014 (for example) and still provide a substantial haul (he’d still have 1.5 years left).

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 4, 2025 12:54 AM EST up reply actions  

I didn't say his trade value would increase

I said his value was too high to trade now. In the 2nd paragraph I didn’t mean that his value would increase in the next couple years over what it is now, just that the extra wild card means some increased value over the current playoff structure. Bad wording, sorry.

I think the haul they get for him now would have to be just mammoth to justify dealing him. The team could actually compete for a playoff spot in 2013 with him, and that would mean a lot to their fan base and marketing going forward. They would have to be able to sell the fans on the trade value coming back, and I think the other team would be hesitant to deal away that much talent.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Dec 3, 2025 9:22 PM EST up reply actions  

If you don't get enough, don't trade him, but you gotta at least listen

And I would think the main thing in selling the fans on it would be getting back at least one MLB ready piece that you can plug in immediately and they can dream on. Its much easier if the fans can see something right away instead of just getting guys that might help in a few years.

And as much as fans might hate to trade McCutchen now, how much more would they hate it if he walks for nothing but draft picks in 4 years without ever having made the playoffs?

by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

If Pittsburgh doesn't keep McCutchen around short-term

let alone sign him long term, Pittsburgh will be admitting that competing is not important. They may as well fold the tent, move elsewhere and let the WPIAL use PNC.
Its impossible for teams to thread the needle, timing all their prospects to break out at the same time. The Pirates have to hold on to their quality players. Otherwise, they’re just constantly plowing under their crops and reseeding. Fans will die of starvation while other teams eat heartily.

Should have kept Aramis Ramirez back in the day. Now this. Sadness fills my heart.

by slacker george on Dec 3, 2025 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't get me wrong I like Gerrardo Parra a lot actually, and have been a big supporter of him in the past and present

But WTF, he’s over Hellickson and about a half-dozen other names thats just mind-boggling

Kieth Law, IMHO when pressed to put out something for ‘espn’ sometimes seems to have a few rush to judgement type of placements, that leave you wondering “what kind of bud, pot was he on, because you couldnt’ even get that kinda good stuff out here in California, Oregon.”

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 1, 2025 9:14 PM EST reply actions  

okay little harsh maybe

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
pyatta Perry Club
352 posts this site
Posted: Yesterday 7:51 AM

RE: Free Agent Relievers Out There...Best o' the Rest AND REALIS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Joe Mauer starts dating Bar Refaeli and creates a dynomo couple called JoBa. JoBa uses their superpower to turn Mauer into a new man and he starts mashing the ball. Bar brings her model friends to the Twins game and miraculously cures Morneau concussion issues. Joe and Justin combine for 62 HR and 203 RBI as the Twins ride the momentum of JoBa.

So yes, she is the key to the Twins season.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 3, 2025 6:43 AM EST up reply actions  

What I found interesting

While he knocked pitchers back for health concerns, he didn’t mention health with Weeks.

Had Weeks over Kipnis—Did John do a smackdown for those two? Love to see that, maybe a three-way with Ackley as well.

Moustakas not on the top 50—Belt at 23.

Oh, for those knocking Hanson’s ranking, he did say he’s leery of any pitcher with a shoulder injury, without it he’d be much higher. Prior and Webb concur.

by drwmsu1 on Dec 1, 2025 9:33 PM EST reply actions  

2B rookies

I’d love to see a smackdown of the trio of Ackley, Kipnis and Weeks. Personally I would never put Kipnis 3rd (mainly due to Weeks’ injury history). I also don’t see the big difference between Ackley and Kipnis (something I have mentioned numerous times before). They have slightly different skill sets, but Ackley’s tools are on a level playing field with Kipnis, and both of their makeups appear to be really good. If Ackley has an edge, it is very slight at best.

Moustakas v. Belt is interesting as well. Seems like KLaw failed to watch Moose adjust to MLB pitching in September like he has at every other stop along the way.

Also, the OP’s comment on Strasburg is something I completely disagree with. Yeah he is an elite talent, but how can you take him over a lefty that is the same age, has already won a Cy Young and is still improving his game? I’d argue Kershaw should be #2 on this list.

by guru4u on Dec 2, 2025 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

As a Braves fan, I have absolutely no problem with the Hanson ranking

I’m pretty much just hoping he can make it to end of his arb eligible years without undergoing major surgery.

by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 12:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Hi-Lo on Klaw

I agree with some others that Castro is a little high, as are Maybin and Posey. I’m a Giants fan but I also agree he will come down to earth a bit. Castro clearly has the hit tool but unsure now if he sticks at SS - is he worth as much as a 2B? Maybin showed upside finally but not there yet, needs to show better hit & OB tools than Jennings before I buy him as higher.

I was really surprised on Kipnis - LH 2B with 20-25 HR power who can put up .280/.370/.500 lines, or thereabouts, with average to possibly above-avg D someday, and some steals? Smells like Chase Utley early in his career to me, he was not thought of as a great defender either back in the day.

Hellickson low not a shock at all, a) he has not shown he can consistently get out LHB, b) he gives up a lot of HRs in a park that is pretty pitcher-friendly, and c) K rate down as previously mentioned. I think he’s a solid #3 guy with #2 upside but no ace.

by qksilver on Dec 3, 2025 11:59 AM EST reply actions  

I went ahead and made my own top-50 for fantasy purposes

Here it is. Mike Napoli #1 is an inside joke with our league and I didn’t feel like changing it.

01. Mike Napoli, Rangers
02. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
03. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
04. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
05. Mike Stanton, Marlins
06. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
07. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
08. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
09. Jason Heyward, Braves
10. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
11. Mike Trout, Angels
12. Desmond Jennings, Rays
13. Mat Latos, Padres
14. Michael Pineda, Mariners
15. Eric Hosmer, Royals
16. Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
17. Brandon Beachy, Braves
18. Jay Bruce, Reds
19. Logan Morrison, Marlins
20. Peter Bourjos, Angels
21. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
22. Starlin Castro, Cubs
23. Alex Avila, Tigers
24. Buster Posey, Giants
25. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
26. Tommy Hanson, Braves
27. Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
28. Trevor Cahill, A’s
29. Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
30. Neftali Feliz, Rangers
31. Aroldis Chapman, Reds
32. Chris Sale, White Sox
33. Derek Holland, Rangers
34. Juan Nicasio, Rockies
35. Henderson Alvarez, Blue Jays
36. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
37. Ike Davis, Mets
38. Freddie Freeman, Braves
39. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
40. Jemile Weeks, A’s
41. Jason Kipnis, Indians
42. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
43. Brett Anderson, A’s
44. Zach Britton, Orioles
45. Jordan Lyles, Astros
46. Jon Niese, Mets
47. Mike Moustakas, Royals
48. Brandon Belt, Giants
49. Jerry Sands, Dodgers
50. Michael Brantley, Indians
51. Domonic Brown, Phillies

HM: Mike Minor, Braves, Jose Altuve, Astros, Salvador Perez, Royals, J.D. Martinez, Astros

by Ryne Alber on Dec 4, 2025 9:10 PM EST reply actions  

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