Community Pitching Prospect #4
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 9, 2025 9:56 AM EST
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PrintWith 66.7% of the vote, Shelby Miller is elected Community Pitching Prospect #3. I removed the 3 pitchers with zero votes and put them in the rotation to get back on. Because it is early on, they will probably only miss one poll. If you like one of those 3 best (or anyone else), you can make an actual vote for them in the OTHERS section.
RESULTS:
Shelby Miller: 66.7%
Trevor Bauer: 18.8%
Danny Hultzen: 7.2%
Drew Pomeranz: 2.9%
Tyler Skaggs: 1.4%
Jameson Taillon: 1.4%
Taijuan Walker: 1.4%
Jacob Turner: 0%
Gerrit Cole: 0%
Dylan Bundy: 0%
CANDIDATES: Trevor Bauer, Danny Hultzen, Drew Pomeranz, Tyler Skaggs, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Carlos Martinez, Jarrod Parker, Martin Perez
IN ROTATION (Probably will only be out for 1 poll, 2 max at this point): Jacob Turner (#3 - 0%), Gerrit Cole (#3 - 0%), Dylan Bundy (#3 - 0%)
TESTERS: Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Brad Peacock, Archie Bradley
#01 - MATT MOORE - 91.0%
#02 - JULIO TEHERAN - 57.3%
#03 - SHELBY MILLER - 66.7%
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+1
Can’t believe Bundy didn’t get any votes. I might’ve gone with him, but then again he’s an Orioles pitcher.
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by CaptainCanuck on Nov 9, 2025 10:47 AM EST via SB Nation iPhone app up reply actions
+1
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by mikel1218 on Nov 9, 2025 11:07 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
162.1 IP - 246 K’s -48 BB, in baseball games last year.
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by casejud on Nov 9, 2025 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
+1
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by Archie A on Nov 9, 2025 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
+1
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by BenMc5 on Nov 9, 2025 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
+1
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+1
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+1
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+1
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by mathisrocks5 on Nov 9, 2025 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
+1
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by MonkeyEpoxy on Nov 9, 2025 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
+1
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by Lesean25 on Nov 9, 2025 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
+1
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by Jeff Reese on Nov 9, 2025 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
+1
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by gatling on Nov 9, 2025 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
+1
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by rwperu34 on Nov 9, 2025 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 9, 2025 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
+1
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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 9, 2025 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
+1
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2025 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2025)
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by biggentleben on Nov 9, 2025 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
OTHERS (Official Votes For Non-Listed Players)
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 9, 2025 9:59 AM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1 Gerrit Cole
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by prestonb1291 on Nov 9, 2025 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
+1 Gerrit Cole
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by Gobroks on Nov 9, 2025 3:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
the way I tidied this section up last year
was asking posters to first list the player they are voting for, then reply to that player with a +1, so others who wanted to follow suit didnt have to list the player again
by BigG'S on Nov 9, 2025 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
He’ll be taken off soon enough because he isn’t getting any votes but, Martin Perez is out of his league this high, in my opinion. I know some people really believe in this guy but, I don’t think he really has very good pitchability.
He’s allowed more than a hit an inning in the minors, too many longballs - something talented pitchers in the minors just don’t do a lot, and he walks too many. he’s got talent but, not so much that there are 10-15 arms that I’d like better.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Nov 9, 2025 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
agreed
I think he’s poised to have a huge year in AAA next season, and could be in the top 3 pitchers next season. But until he actually does it, he doesn’t belong in the discussion.
by ajake57 on Nov 9, 2025 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
Pomeranz vs Skaggs
I’m a little surprised that so many people prefer Skaggs to Pomeranz. I know Skaggs is cool but, I’d argue Pomeranz is just as cool.
DP joined the AA party a month or so later than TS did but, he handled it just as well. He handled huigh A just as well too. I suppose it could be a point in Skaggs favor but, I actually like the fact that Pomeranz is two years and, three months younger. He was tossing 71 and 100 innings per year, at the same age Skaggs was tosssing 98 and, 158.
Is Skaggs’s stuff and upside really that much better? I guess the answer for those who like Skaggs is “yes” but, is that really true? Another thing, is that I hear a lot of questions about Pomeranzs change-up but, I love pitchers who dominate pitching primarily off of thier fastball.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Nov 9, 2025 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Pomeranz is 27 months older, not younger but, everybody knows that anyways I think. My bad.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Nov 9, 2025 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Pomeranz vs Skaggs
their statistical profiles are deceptively similar, but Pom’s numbers in the minors are a little worrisome for me
they both struck out guys at largely the same rates before Pom went to Colorado, but behind Pom’s numbers, is a scary low swinging strikeout percentage. that screams to me that Pom was simply getting a ton of called third strikes that were at best a by-product of unsophisticated hitters getting locked up on his curveball, and at worst, just good luck that the ump was calling borderline pitches.
i’m worried that the lack of swinging strikeouts is going to catch up to Pom when he pitches in the majors long-term. in a small sample size at the major league level, Pom’s swinging strikeout percentage dropped a little but his overall strikeout percentage dropped a lot. i just don’t think major league hitters get caught looking on curveballs (or get caught looking period) all that often. my rule of thumb tends to be that 5-7% point increase between swinging strikeout and actual strikeout percentage is a reasonable expectation.
Skaggs didn’t show the same problem in AA, despite both pitchers’ having curveballs as their best secondaries.
by blue bulldog on Nov 9, 2025 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting
. . . but, just to be clear, Pomeranz didn’t have a low swinging K percentage in A+ (21.7 to Skaggs 22 in A+), he only started 5 times in AA which isn’t a lot to base an evaluation on and, his swinging k percentages weren’t that low (15.7) at AA, were they?
It is very impressive what Skaggs did at AA. He was awesome. It’s kind of hard to quibble with what Pomeranz did in AA either though - he dominated - he gave up 12 hits and, 6 walks, and 1 home run, in 24 Innings.
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by casejud on Nov 9, 2025 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
no you are right
the A+ numbers were similar, it was the small sample size numbers in AA and in the majors where you started seeing the difference for Pom
that’s enough though, for me to give the edge to Skaggs (of course, in addition to Skaggs’s younger age)
by blue bulldog on Nov 9, 2025 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Sample Size
From a statistical standpoint, those extra 250 batters that Skaggs faced means you are going to regress him towards the mean a less than Pomeranz.
My question is similar to yours in nature, yet quite different. Why is there such a difference between Shelby Miller and Tyler Skaggs? Their statistical profile is very similar pitching at very similar level. Skaggs is 10 months younger, taller, and left handed. I assume that Miller throws harder, but for there to be as much of a difference as I perceive from the voting, he’d have to throw 4-5 MPH harder.
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by rwperu34 on Nov 9, 2025 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
i think it's pretty close between the two
numbers favor Skaggs, scouting reports favor Miller
by blue bulldog on Nov 9, 2025 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
I'm going Hultzen over Walker now.
Earlier in the year I was going Walker and still think he has the higher ceiling, but Hultzen has looked great and I think people may have been wrong when they put his ceiling as a 3.
by tarheels24 on Nov 9, 2025 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
bring back Jacob Turner
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 9, 2025 11:22 AM EST reply actions
Agreed
It’s very close for me between him and Skaggs.
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by Jeff Reese on Nov 9, 2025 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
considering most of the reports i've read about Turner
suggest he’s probably going to be only as good as Porcello
your evaluation seems rather high on Turner or rather low on Skaggs
by blue bulldog on Nov 9, 2025 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
I think Turner has a higher ceiling than that
I voted Skaggs as the 4th best pitching prospect so I don’t think I can be described as having a low opinion of him.
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by Jeff Reese on Nov 9, 2025 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Turner
imo, needs to be above some of these other guys, Paxton, Walker, etc. I imaging he would get 3-5 votes.
by Mike Kaluk on Nov 9, 2025 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
He was ahead of those guys
He was on the original list. He’ll be back on. Don’t worry.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 9, 2025 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'm
not saying Bauer isn’t a good pitching prospect, but I feel people are putting WAY too much stock in 27.1 IP.
I’m wary of how good his curveball really is. There were murmurings around draft time that Bauer exploited college hitters by throwing the ball in the dirt and that the curve won’t play as well against MLB hitters. I want to make sure I’m clear; I’m not saying it’s not a great pitch. It’s a plus pitch, but I’m wary of grading it above a 65 until we see more data against better hitters.
Back to the 27.1 IP. I don’t think those innings, against A+ and AA batters, assuage any of the fears I laid out. I’m quite willing to admit I could eat my words; Bauer could end up to be an elite pitcher for several years. I’ll also readily admit that perhaps bias is at play; the Pirates “had to settle” for his teammate Gerrit Cole. Still, my assessment of Bauer is a solid #2, and not a #1 pitcher.
He still could be worthy of the #4 pitching prospect, but I’m surprised he’s seemingly raised his stock over Cole or Hultzen, considering I didn’t really see something similar at the time of the draft. Again, does 27.1 IP warrant that? Maybe, but I’m not so sure.
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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 9, 2025 1:16 PM EST reply actions
Interesting points
Perhaps people are putting too much faith in his small sample of pro innings. But he was in the top three college arms this year (I had him at 2, behind Cole). He is definitely a top ten arm on this list, and I have him at five personally, but I can see why some would have Hultzen, Cole, or some others ahead of him. I think there are about 8-10 arms after the top three that are pretty close together.
But Bauer is running away with this one so far.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 9, 2025 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
I’m not even saying Bauer doesn’t deserve it, I’m just surprised he’s running away with it so much.
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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 9, 2025 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
I can only speak for myself but, I’d venture that many people rank Bauer over Cole, in particular, becase they ranked Bauer ahead of Cole before the draft! Not to be a smartass but, there is that little factor of Bauer being a way, way better pitcher during the season than Gerritt Cole.
I don’t think the 27.1 innings as a pro has much to do with it at all really. i find more people holding it against Bauer, than as a big plus. I think 15 Ks per nine innings shows a few things myself though. I don’t care if it is 9 innings or, 27.1. You show me a guy coming straight out of college who Ks 15 per and, I’ll show you impressive.
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by casejud on Nov 9, 2025 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Timmmah
Bauer faced just as many batters as Tim Lincecum did at this point in his career. Just sayin.
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by rwperu34 on Nov 9, 2025 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Who
is really basing their ranking of Bauer primarily based on his pro career so far? A lot of people already had him this high when he was drafted.
And it’s not like he absolutely wowed everyone really. He was a very advanced pitcher who could strike guys out in bunches but also struggle with command and gopheritis. And that’s exactly what he’s shown so far.
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by CaptainCanuck on Nov 9, 2025 7:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
#5
Is going to be a heck of a battle, huh fellas?
" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin
by casejud on Nov 9, 2025 5:04 PM EST via mobile reply actions
looking that way
Looks like toss up between Skaggs, Hultzen, and possibly Cole.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 9, 2025 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
The voting is now closed
Trevor Bauer wins with 40% of the vote.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 9, 2025 10:11 PM EST reply actions
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