Overall Community Prospect #42
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 15, 2025 12:58 PM EST
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PrintWith 68.5% of the vote, Hak-Ju Lee is elected Overall Prospect #41.
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PITCHING PROSPECT #21 ROBBIE ERLIN vs POSITIONAL PROSPECT # 22 NICK FRANKLIN
Positional Prospects In The Queue: #23 Cheslor Cuthbert, #24 Christian Yelich, #25 Jonathan Singleton
Pitching Prospects In The Queue: #22 Arodys Vizcaino, #23 A.J. Cole, #24 Manny Banuelos
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OVERALL COMMUNITY PROSPECT LIST:
#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 56.9%
#02 - MIKE TROUT - 60%
#03 - MATT MOORE - 96%
#04 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 51.9%
#05 - JULIO TEHERAN - 60.9%
#06 - SHELBY MILLER - 58.7%
#07 - MANNY MACHADO - 87.7%
#08 - DEVIN MESORACO - 69.4%
#09 - TREVOR BAUER - 55.3%
#10 - WILL MYERS - 73.8%
#11 - JESUS MONTERO - 73.7%
#12 - ANTHONY RENDON - 72.9%
#13 - TYLER SKAGGS - 54.3%
#14 - GERRIT COLE - 51.4%
#15 - TRAVIS D'ARNAUD - 60.9%
#16 - JAMESON TAILLON - 56.1%
#17 - DYLAN BUNDY - 65.0%
#18 - NOLAN ARENADO - 63.1%
#19 - DANNY HULTZEN - 81.1%
#20 - TAIJUAN WALKER - 62.7%
#21 - DREW POMERANZ - 67.9%
#22 - MIGUEL SANO - 62.5%
#23 - JACOB TURNER - 54.7%
#24 - JARROD PARKER - 60.4%
#25 - YONDER ALONSO - 68.4%
#26 - JAMES PAXTON - 61.4%
#27 - FRANCISCO LINDOR - 59.0%
#28 - CARLOS MARTINEZ - 50.8%
#29 - BUBBA STARLING - 65.2%
#30 - XANDER BOGAERTS - 50.8%
#31 - RANDALL DELGADO - 66.1%
#32 - ARCHIE BRADLEY - 53.8%
#33 - ANTHONY RIZZO - 60.0%
#34 - OSCAR TAVERAS - 58.7%
#35 - MARTIN PEREZ - 52.9%
#36 - ZACK WHEELER - 59.3%
#37 - BRETT JACKSON - 50.8%
#38 - YASMANI GRANDAL - 50.9%
#39 - MATT HARVEY - 54.5%
#40 - JAKE MARISNICK - 79.1%
#41 - HAK-JU LEE - 68.5%
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+1
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 15, 2025 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
+1
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by Gobroks on Dec 15, 2025 2:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
10
"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."
by BenMc5 on Dec 15, 2025 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"We did a lot of good things last year, and now we've got Julio ... That does nothing but improve the offense, and we expect to do better. That's our goal, to lead the NFL in everything. Every offensive category." -Roddy White
by Beachy Keen on Dec 15, 2025 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
+1
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 15, 2025 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."
by BenMc5 on Dec 15, 2025 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
+1
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Sign Yu Darvish.
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by purple_haze on Dec 15, 2025 4:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
20th
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RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 15, 2025 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
by Ogre39666 on Dec 15, 2025 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
+1
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
by PHGold09 on Dec 15, 2025 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
It's a close one here
Franklin is just a couple of spots ahead of Erlin on my list. I’m curious how long Erlin will have to wait to get on the list here, I wouldn’t vote for him until Singleton is his opposition.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 15, 2025 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Erlin
the move to SDP and the style in which he pitches (excellent control, slightly above average FB rate) play perfectly. I think the environment raises his floor even higher, possible quality #2.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 15, 2025 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Home parks
have the potential to effect results, but not prospect standing, IMO. Do you give extra credit to hitters in Colorado, Texas or Cincy’s systems? Dock pitchers in those systems? What happens when their traded, you change their ranking? Doesn’t make sense to me, it’s as useless as knocking down a prospect’s standing/ranking because they are “blocked” at the MLB level in their current system.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 15, 2025 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Normally, I agree with you here
. . but recently it has occured to me that there may be more to this. Follow for a sec: If a guy hits better in Coors (or pitches better in Petco) he isn’t even really a better hitter or, a better pitcher - he just looks better, statisticallty speaking. His actual value isn’t really hugher. On this, I agree with you.
However, If a a park a pitcher pitces in allows him to pitch with confidence, does this help him develop as a pitcher and, help him pitch better when he goes on the road? I think there there is something to be said for this effect.
On the other hand, a young hitter coming up in Colorado only learns bad habits when he goes to another ballpark to hit, I think.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
It works both ways I think
A cushy home park might give a pitcher more confidence, but it can also breed bad habits because the park covers up his warts. Since you can’t project how many years a player may play in a given park, I think it’s foolish to try and factor that into the prospect ranking.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 15, 2025 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
One way it does SORT OF factor in is this way...
If all the parks were converted to spacious pitching parks, we would have to factor in how well each player compares to each other using those park dimensions. FB tendencies would be a generally less concerning quality, and presumably in most people’s comparative pitching prospect rankings, a guy like Erlin would jump up the rankings at least a little (a lot for those who are highly concerned by his FB tendencies). Well, if Erlin, and pitchers like him, can hold his own vs. a “legit” #2 starter when pitching in a spacious park, and there are enough spacious parks out there compared to pitchers who profile really well in those parks, then what SHOULD happen is teams with spacious parks ought to be seeing that extra value and trading for those players. He loses value because not all parks are spacious (assuming spacious parks benefit him more that the most other pitchers), but we don’t need to discount that value so fully because there are good pitching parks out there, and we don’t even need to only credit him that 1/3 of that extra marginal value that he’d get if he pitched in one of the top third of parks out there and discount him a further 1/3 based on the chances he’s stuck in a hitters park. Because player movement is fairly dynamic, we can put the odds of him ending up in a place like SD vs TEX at better than 1:1, and he does DESERVE credit for that, as much as he deserves blame for the fact that not all parks are ideally spacious for his style of pitching.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 15, 2025 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
So to be clear
He doesn’t gain prospect value when he is traded from TEX to SD. But all players that profile really well in some parks and really poorly in others, deserve a higher prospect status than a prospect who doesn’t fit particularly well in any type of ballpark but would end up with the same expected value if players were randomly placed on big league clubs (which of course is not a fully random process).
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 15, 2025 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
That made my head hurt
. . but I do see some of what you were saying. Also, if Erlin pitches half of his starts in Petco and, this is suited to his pitching style - more than other pitchers even - he also will be starting about two games a year in At and T park and, two more in Dodger stadium. In a full-season, this makes about 20 of his 33 starts in those parks.
I’;m not just talking about the results he’ll put up though, like in say fantasy baseball. I’m talkuing about how this is better for a pitcher to develop into a major league starter in.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps, to an extent
But I’m talking about someting else. Like say how the Braves bring up all thier starters in very good pitching environments in the low minors.
In theory this could cause bad habits but, in practice I think it causes pitchers to throw with more confidence. When a guy has sucess pitching in a big park, knowing he can get away with some mistakes, I think he turns around and pitches that way when he goes to a park like Coors or GABP.
Throwing strikes and attacking hitters with confidence are good habits that carry over well to tougher pitching environments, no?
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
Oh
My reply was a general one, mainly to the points made by Westfall and gatling a little earlier.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 15, 2025 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't refering to development
Only to whether future park placement should affect prospect status. My point was simply that we should assume there is a higher likelihood that Erlin will end up in pitchers parks, where his FB tendencies aren’t as important. That assumption should be worked into his prospect status, though we should be blind to his actual placement in any particular system.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 15, 2025 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Sure
I guess I was saying that we should be open to the idea of not being so blind to that, especially in the case of a developing young starter.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I think I disagree, but it is a reasonable position. I think the problem I have is this: would ALL pitchers benefit roughly the same way from being in these ideal developmental environments? If so, then I’m not so sure we should be factoring it in. It would be like giving a boost to all prospects in certain organizations that do well developing players. Both situations MIGHT help you predict long term success, and if your goal in evaluating prospects is to basically bet on which will do better later, then it is fine to factor it in. But if your goal is to evaluate who is truly the better prospect, like if there was a re-draft which player you would draft first to come to your organization, then you absolutely can’t factor it in.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 15, 2025 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
this
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 15, 2025 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
No problem
I was replying to Gatling :) It all gets jumbvled up sometimes.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Erlin is a bit different
because he has such excellent control and his only glaring weakness is a higher than average FB rate, his home park will cover this up…so if the purpose of grading prospects is to see how they will do as a MLB player he has to get a bit of a bump because he now has less weakness. If the purpose of grading prospects is to evaluate each individual skill/tool without factoring in anything from the outside (climate, park factors, etc) that would affect a pitcher then its a different scenario.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 15, 2025 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
Using your Braves example
I think it’s much more the way the Braves develop pitchers than where they develop them that leads to success. The Rockies have developed some damn good pitchers over the last decade with launching pad stadiums in the minors.
I don’t think that pitching in a manner that allows you to get away with mistakes in a big park would translate well to a hitters park, those mistakes aren’t covered up anymore when you’re in a bandbox.
Flip side of this, should you downgrade a pitcher with strong groundball tendencies because the team he will play for has poor defenders in the INF? I say no, you should evaluate the pitcher(or hitter) in a vacuum based on their strengths and weaknesses, not on how their environment(including team situation) might influence their results. You can’t predict how long a player will play in general, let alone how long they will play in a more favorable environment for their skill set.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 15, 2025 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
I see what you are saying
. . but keep in mind that this isn’t a concept I invented. Major league orginizations avoid sending pitching prospects to the Cal League, the PCL and, the AFL for precisely this reason. Because, in the developmental stages, it is perhaps helpful to be in an environment where a pitcher can deliver his pitches with less fear. I think this could be true in the big leagues as well and, is.
This is where I think it could be an edge for certain prospects - I’d at least consider it. One could rank them in a vacuum- that would be more fair but, when projecting/predicting major league performance anything that could be an edge should be considered - fairness doesn’t matter maybe?
Agaian, the point isn’t that Erlin’s results may be better, so we should rank him higher - it’s that it it may help him develop into a confident pitcher. I’m talking residual effects here and, I’m just saying it is a possibility.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
You're overstating things
It’s not like every pitching prospect is skipped over the Cal League or the PCL, the AFL less so though I think workloads probably factor in there a bit too. Plenty of good pitching prospects go through those leagues and are just fine. Yes, sometimes players are skipped over particularly rough environments but teams usually feel the pitcher is ready for the challenge, since you’re talking about jumping from Low A to AA or AA to the majors.
You’re saying it just a possibility, so if that’s all it is why bother to allow it any influence on where you rank a guy? It’s possible instead of confidence being instilled it’s bad habits or growth gets stunted because a pitcher doesn’t have to work as hard to overcome his propensity for flyballs. Instead of playing a guessing game one way or the other, why not judge the player on what we can and not add even more speculation into things.
I personally don’t think Erlin will develop bad habits because he looks like he’ll pitch in Petco for a decent amount of time, I think he’s a bulldog in the Tim Hudson mold that will work hard and is determined to get better. Generally speaking though, letting park factors or roster construction at the MLB level or anything outside of what a prospect can do on his own is a mistake in my opinion.
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 15, 2025 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
all im saying is that as a prospect his floor got higher with the trade.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 15, 2025 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting
As I wouldn’t even consider Rob Erlin if Jon Singleton was his opposition. It would be a closer call between Erlin & Christian Yelich for me personally as I feel both have somewhat reduced upsides compared to some of the other similarly ranked cats on this poll, but I’d be true to my listing & go Yelich I think because maybe he could still fill in as a CF & develop more earnest power. As an aside, I prefer Arodys Vizcaino, Manuel Banuelos & AJ Cole (among others) to Erlin btw so I’m not part of the reason he’s where he is here.
by Matt0330 on Dec 16, 2025 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
I hate it when . . .
. you are in the middle of writing about why you don’t like a prospect all that much, then you look at him again and realize you may have been wrong about him :-p. Such may be the case with Rob Erlin. I still like Nick Franklin better though.
I still think there may be a bit of Hanley Ramirez in Nick. In the “bored with High A ball” sense. Iit’ll be “lights, camera, action!” for him in AA this year. Time to shine for Nick and, I think he will.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Again
I’m taking the middle infielder over a pitcher who to me has a mid-level ceiling. I’m sorry to hate on you Westfall, but I see Erlin’s ceiling as a #2 type, and that’s stretching it for me. I have no clue how someone can say his floor is a #2.
Of the list, the only two pitchers I can confidently say have a #2 floor at this point are Moore and Teheran, and that’s it. It’s damn hard to be a #2 pitcher in major league baseball.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2025 4:02 PM EST reply actions
I'd go further
Neither Moore or Teheran have the floor of a number two but, I don’t klike floor/ceiling discussions much. To me though it is more “pie in the sky” nonsense to suggest that Matt Moore or Juliio Teheran, as talented as they are, are anything close to a guarantee to be a number two starter in the big leagues.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
This comes down to how you define floor
I don’t think most people use it in a literal sense, where the player actually guaranteed to be that good. I think its more of a “this is the worst I can see him doing without something fundamentally changing about him as a player.”
by nixa37 on Dec 15, 2025 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
+1
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 15, 2025 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
No one uses floor that way.
People claim they are using it that way. But the absolute floor for EVERY. SINGLE. PROSPECT is not putting it together well enough to be a useful pro. It becomes a completely meaningless term, and that is why no one uses it that way. They mean that it will be a real surprise if someone does worse that such and such. Ceiling is used a little bit more honestly, but even that is a little bit BS because it doesn’t take into account some type of totally unexpected jump in some aspect of the player’s game. Now, obviously you aren’t going to find many or any prospects with floor (the way it is actually used - not absolute floor) of a #2 starter either, and certainly Erlin isn’t the exception to that rule either.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 15, 2025 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
+1
This is the problem I have with floor/ceiling converstations. We don’t need to discus absolute floor or ceiling. To me, that is meaningless. What is significant and, communicative,as far as language is a player’s reasonable floor and ceiling.
To me the reason most people talk in terms of these two veersions of a player, his floor and his ceiling, is they can’t see the player clearly enough to squeeze the two together and, see the singular, reality of the actual player.
The problem is having to hash all this out befor beginning a each conversation about foor and ceiling.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
by casejud on Dec 15, 2025 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
You say this immediately after telling a guy he was wrong
Because he listed a reasonable floor, and you didn’t think that was their absolute floor. Did you ever consider that the reasonable part was implied when he said floor? Since, you know, that is the context basically all of us use when we say floor.
by nixa37 on Dec 15, 2025 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
Ya
I mean Verlander’s floor isn’t a #2 next year then. He could blow out his elbow, get gall stones, decide he wants to become a monk, or lose three fingers in a freak ice skating accident.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2025 3:25 AM EST up reply actions
sorry.
i didnt mean is floor was a #2..i meant that with his pitching environment his ceiling is closer to a quality #2…his floor is obviously much lower.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 15, 2025 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
Oh
okay. I agreeish with that. I was gonna say.. lol
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2025 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
Voting Closed
Franklin wins this one with 59.3% of the vote.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 16, 2025 12:04 PM EST reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
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