Should Bryce Harper be on the Opening Day Nationals Roster?

by John Sickels on Mar 7, 2026 3:00 PM EST

Mar. 3, 2012; Kissimmee, FL, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) grounds out against the Houston Astros at Osceola County Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE

I promise I'm not going to turn this website into the Bryce Harper Show, but I do think this is worth discussing.

Harper is off to a 5-for-11 start in his first four spring training games for the Washington Nationals. A few days ago, I was discussing spring training with a baseball friend, who brought up the topic of Harper by asking, "unless he gets hurt, is there any way that Bryce Harper does NOT get 400 at-bats for the Nationals this year? Who is going to hold him back? Rick Ankiel?"

Good question.

So, what do you guys think? This is a two-part topic.

1) Will Harper get at least 400 at-bats for Washington?
2) If the decision were up to you, would you have Harper in the majors on Opening Day, or would you send him to the minors? We'll turn that part into a poll question. For purposes of the poll question we'll preclude the possibility of injury, and we'll assume that he remains effective in spring training.

Poll

If the decision was up to you, would you have Bryce Harper on the Opening Day Washington Nationals roster?

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Read More: Rick Ankiel (CF - WAS), Bryce Harper (CF - WAS), Washington Nationals

Comments

What's the harm in giving him some time in AAA?

It’s not like he set AA on fire.

by walnut falcons on Mar 7, 2026 3:08 PM EST reply actions

In July in AA he hit .238/.300/.325 which is not exactly good but combined with a

17.8K% and a 9BB% he wasn’t horrible either. Then in August in AA he hit .292/.375/.521 with a 12.5BB% and a 17.9K% Overall in AA he hit .339/.375/.576 on the road with a .383 BABIP, and hit .188/.293/.246 with a .231BABIP. Then he hit .333/.400/.634 in the Arizona fall league.

So by month you have
April A .318/.423/.621
May A 336/.416/.545
June A .258/.402/.439
July A .455/.600/.636
July AA .238/.300/.325
August AA .292/.375/.521
AFL 90%AA+ .333/.400/.634

That is a guy who adjusted well to everything they throw at him, they ought to lock him up to a Matt Moore contract if they can then if he hits hit way onto the lineup card let him go for it, he is obviously a generational talent.

"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides

by TomCat009 on Mar 9, 2026 8:36 AM EST up reply actions

no

a million times no.

by CaptainCanuck on Mar 7, 2026 3:10 PM EST reply actions

1) Yes, I think he’ll get 400 AB’s for the Nats this year, but

2) I think he should be sent to the minors to start the year, if only to temper things a bit and to let him mature at the minor league level.

by toonsterwu on Mar 7, 2026 3:10 PM EST reply actions

Exactly what I was coming to post.

Do you know what Spring Training #‘s are good for? Well, neither do I. He’ll be great, but he took some time to adjust to AA last year, let him start at AAA and if he’s tearing the cover off the ball in April, call him up. That plan isn’t going to hurt anyone, as I think the Nats are still a year or two from serious contention anyway, no need to rush the kid.

by Cormican on Mar 7, 2026 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

It's ludicrous to bring him up on Opening Day

due to service time rules, that would mean the Nationals would lose the rights to his age-25 season. If they wait just a month, they can delay his free agency by a year. I wouldn’t trade 19 games of 19-year old Bryce Harper for 150-160 games of 25-year old Bryce Harper.
That being said, I could see him coming up directly after that. For some reason I don’t think Rizzo cares that much about the Super-2 deadline. I would still keep him in the minors until June, though. It’s not as if he’ll have a Heywardian impact in his rookie year, in any case.

by Jaumiusk on Mar 7, 2026 3:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

+1

just like the Rays with delaying Price, Longoria, etc.
No reason to start the kid in the Bigs and start that free agency clock early.
He’ll be up after a month

by ScottAZ on Mar 7, 2026 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

you’ve gotta think though, even if the clock doesn’t start early, Harper is going to be hitting the FA market after his age 25 season. If he dominates eventually like he’s supposed to, he’s going to get a small country’s GDP of a contract.

by Jaumiusk on Mar 7, 2026 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

But Washinton

is one of the teams that might actually be able to afford a mega-deal in the future. They have (quite possibly) the richest owner in the 4 major sports. They have a new park, a good market, and good young talent to build around.

*I also think it’s too early to worry about signability of a 19 year old kid who has never had an AB above AA. A lot can happen between now and 2018

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by KentuckyPirate on Mar 7, 2026 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

it's obviously a long ways off

but it’ll be an issue for sure, just like it is for any impending 25-year-old free agent, rare as they are.

by Jaumiusk on Mar 7, 2026 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

maybe a Longo type contract?

if harper has a good first season maybe a longo type early extension that would buy out his 26/27 years as well? not sure if boras would do that though

by ScottAZ on Mar 7, 2026 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

I think he would. He’d still have Harper becoming a FA in his age 28 season (prime), and get a huge contract. That equals more money for player and agent and cost certainty for the club. Everyone wins (unless there’s an injury or regression).

by Cormican on Mar 7, 2026 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

No one will ever sign another Longo-type deal.

Maybe a Cutch deal or the like, but Longo’s deal is not a good measuring stick.

by Traindogger on Mar 8, 2026 7:37 AM EST up reply actions

Matt Moore pretty much did

Don’t see Harper doing it, though.

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by WHYG Zane Smith on Mar 8, 2026 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

+1 but...

and this is premature, BUT does anyone think this decision could have an impact on future contract talks?

As Jaumiusk says below, you are likely going to miss his peak unless you extend him. Harper has already been very open about his desire to be on the MLB roster. If he continues to be successful and the Nationals are clearly keeping him in the minors for business reasons, does Harper then say I’m going to stick it to you when the time comes?

Could sitting him down and leveraging this as chips to lay on the table later have any positive effect down the road. The point about 20 games as a 19 year old vs. 150 as a 25 year old is very valid and explains the decision well. I’m just wondering if those 20 games as a 19 year old could help show good will on the teams part towards future negotiations.

by jfish26101 on Mar 7, 2026 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

boras seems to know what is good for his players...

i dont think he’ll complain about harper being down. he wanted strasburg to start in the minors and he was unquestionably ready.

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by billybeingbilly on Mar 7, 2026 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

That was a completely different situation

Strasburg was about controlling his innings and he still hit the majors his first season.

Harper is a positional player with an advanced bat who spent all of last season in the minors.

by jfish26101 on Mar 7, 2026 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

Boras knows the service rules

and has a good relationship with Rizzo. He’s not going to throw a hissy fit because Rizzo makes a rational business decision. I also don’t think it matters how much good will Boras feels the Nationals have for Harper - he’s still going to probably either ask for a ridiculous extension or test free agency. He’ll go where the money goes.

by Jaumiusk on Mar 7, 2026 9:13 PM EST up reply actions

Boras only advises. Players can and have chosen to ignore him and given team friendly contracts and/or renewals.

by pedrophile on Mar 8, 2026 3:07 AM EST up reply actions

Yep ...

Harper comes up middle of June.

by squarejaw on Mar 7, 2026 11:04 PM EST up reply actions

100% agree

Losing an entire year of control at 25 for a handfull of games at 19 would be a rediculous blunder. I would lose a ton of respect for Rizzo’s intellect, regardless of what the kid does this spring.

by MRDillow on Mar 8, 2026 9:27 AM EST up reply actions

Everyone keeps saying this without mentioning the other side of the coin

Basically, that extra year of team control comes at a near market value price. Look no further than Ryan Howard and Tim Lincecum to see just how high arbitration awards can get for Super 2 players. I honestly believe the Nats might be better off starting him in the bigs at the start of the season if he’s ready. The combination of extra revenue (and remember time value of money, so revenues in the near term are far more valuable than revenues 6 years from now), added goodwill from the fans, and showing respect towards Harper which may help future negotiations seem like they may be enough to make up for an extra season of team control at a relatively fair salary.

by nixa37 on Mar 8, 2026 9:35 AM EST up reply actions

One extra year at market price is extremely valuable

Milwaukee would gladly have paid Prince 25 Mil for another year and St.Louis the same for Pujols. The problem is they are offered 9 year deals that can crush an org.

by pedrophile on Mar 8, 2026 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

I guess I could have been more clear

If you aren’t going to have a problem paying him 20+ million in his 7th season, then you can probably go ahead and get him to sign that one season away now by guaranteeing him more money faster. Boras obviously isn’t going to be willing to give away team options on the end like Longoria did, but I can’t see him standing in the way of a 7 year deal that guarantees Harper a ton of money and effectively gets him to the bigs a few months faster.

by nixa37 on Mar 8, 2026 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Boras works for the players

If the player wants to extend they will. Look at the CarGo and Tulo extensions. And their have been other Boras extensions, I think Weaver?

I think much of the blame on Boras has to do with which players have Boras as an agent.

Anyways, that’s a little off-topic. I agree, they should sign him now to take care of that year and make the decision in spring training solely about baseball and not about control.

Further I think that 25 or 50 million dollar contracts can sway a player to sign an extension when the player is making 400,000. Once a player makes enough that isn’t enough to get it done. Harper already has 10 million so I don’t think he will be signing any discounted deal.

by pedrophile on Mar 8, 2026 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

This almost suggests he will head north with the team.

Bryce Harper wants to be in the big leagues so bad, I bet he’d pay ten million dollars for the chance.

No agent in baseball is better than Boras, and it thus seems like Harper could probably negotiate the business concerns out of the picture, if the Nats think he’s ready.

by philosofool on Mar 8, 2026 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

I think that is the best solution

If they basically sign a contract buying out all of his arb years plus one free agent year. He wouldn’t really lose a free agent year because they could always hold him down in the minors until June. It seems like a win-win situation. Also, the Nationals get a cost guarantee which helps them in budget planning.

by pedrophile on Mar 8, 2026 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

I think Harper is MLB-ready

But for reasons already touched upon (tempering expectations, service time) I would imagine the Nats will hold off on Harper joining the team on the trip north. A month in AAA makes too much sense.

a) it delays Harper’s service clock.
b) The AAA affiliate will appreciate the boost in attendance and attention
c) It will lower the pressure on Harper just a tad by giving him some time in AAA to cool his heels. Granted, a May call up will probably mean similar exposure to what Stephen Strasburg experienced 2 years ago in terms of national spotlight and attention.

by GuyinNY on Mar 7, 2026 3:24 PM EST reply actions

i agree fully. also nice point about the AAA affiliate

it would be terrible to own the syracuse chiefs and be skipped over for a once in a generation talent.

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by James Westfall on Mar 7, 2026 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

I was a little surprised they skipped him past Potomac last year. That would have been a huge boon for that club, especially since they’re basically a DC suburb.

by Cormican on Mar 7, 2026 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

There were whispers that crappy field conditions there were the reason he was skipped to AA

by nixa37 on Mar 8, 2026 9:16 AM EST up reply actions

After what he did to low A.

It would have been a waste of time. I think he went to AA because he needed better competition.

by philosofool on Mar 8, 2026 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

Hitting in the AFL or Spring Training does not equate with MLB success

A majority of the pitchers in both instances are throwing TONS of fastballs to save on wear and tear on their arms. Not really real life MLB experience to hit only fastballs.

I think he gets plenty of at bats this season for the Nats, and probably even helps them get a Wild Card berth, but he needs to start the year at least in AAA.

by backtocali on Mar 8, 2026 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

Actually

Spring training stats can mean something, provided there’s a significant jump in performance (specifically slugging percentage.)

http://www.baseballpress.com/article.php?id=775

by GuyinNY on Mar 8, 2026 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

1) He will get 400 ABs this season with the Nats

2) He should NOT start the season in the big leagues. Too much good reason for the Nats to hold off a month or two and get an extra season of control.

He held his own at AA, nothing more. Granted, that was at 18, but still. Even if he hits .500 in the spring it doesn’t really count for anything. Let him get some time at AAA to prove his readiness.

Also, the Nats, despite making noises about contending this year, are probably a year away. The Phils, Braves and Marlins are all formidable. It would be foolish to throw away his age 25 season for a month of his age 19 season when the Nats don’t even make the playoffs.

by Governator on Mar 7, 2026 4:52 PM EST reply actions

It’s all about the FA service time rules……so let him get some AAA ABs, and call him up once he passes that first threshold. I think it’s only a month or so…

So, yeah, send him down, but yeah, I think he’ll still get 400 ABs.

by billybgame on Mar 7, 2026 5:20 PM EST reply actions

let him dominate each level, starting with AA

Once he is dominating AA move him to AAA, then once he dominates that level call him up.

Many want him in AAA but I would rather be patient and have him successful at each level.

by pedrophile on Mar 7, 2026 5:53 PM EST reply actions

He was dominating AA by the end, then he dominated AFL

"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides

by TomCat009 on Mar 9, 2026 8:43 AM EST up reply actions

AFL is lower competition than AA

He sucked one month and dominated the next month. That’s too small a sample either way. If he is killing the ball at the end of spring training when pitchers actually try then AAA might be the best place for him.

by pedrophile on Mar 9, 2026 10:43 AM EST up reply actions

I'd keep him in the minors as long as he has to

to ensure he stays a National as long as possible. His agent is Scott Boras so I don’t know if they will be open to does new shinny long-term deals that players seem to be more open now. They do have great relationship with Boras so maybe they could work something out but I doubt it.

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by DominicanDandy on Mar 7, 2026 6:03 PM EST reply actions

Lots of confidence

In a kid who hasn’t excelled above Low-A yet. Maybe Profar should start the season in the majors.

Just kidding…..sort of.

by Woo! on Mar 7, 2026 6:44 PM EST reply actions

he shouldn't even start at AAA

look at his splits at AA: 90 PAs of suck, 50 PAs of good. send him back to harrisburg to begin the year

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by papality on Mar 7, 2026 7:29 PM EST reply actions

Not gonna say he should start in the majors at all, I just found this interesting:

ZiPS projects Harper for a .316 wOBA in 2012, which was exactly league average in 2011. Assuming the recent depressed offense continues it should be close to average again. Steamer projects him for .334 wOBA, and RotoChamp projects .350.

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by mattybobo on Mar 7, 2026 10:27 PM EST reply actions

Harper

I believe Harper should be on the opening day roster IF it didnt affect his FA clock. With that said I think Harper should be up right after the 20 or so games that he has to spend down in the minors to delay his free agency by one year. I personally believe that he is the 3rd best OF option that the Nats have right now, if not even higher than that.

by ZeFreed on Mar 7, 2026 10:56 PM EST reply actions

Superior talent but...

he should begin the season in the minors. If he had just totally dominated the minor leagues last year, then by all means, let him start. But he struggled early in AA and then straightened himself out. Beyond the FA situation where it could be extended if they put him in the minors, Bryce should prove his worth in AAA before being called up. If he dominates there, then you have to bring him up and let him play. I also agree with someone else when it comes to spring training stats, they mean absolutely nothing. These are not games played in major league ballparks. How one plays in spring training is far more important than one’s stats.

by rblythepittsteel on Mar 8, 2026 8:49 AM EST reply actions

I think Harper will be up after the All-Star break

personally, I would give him 250-300 at bats in AAA just to get his feet wet, what’s the rush for him to be in the majors?

the kid is clearly going to be “the Natural” talent but its silly to start his service time AND put even more pressure on him when he does finally become an MLBer.

I think Rick Ankiel and Roger Bernadina is a fine platoon/placeholder until Harper is ready.

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by feslenraster on Mar 8, 2026 9:00 AM EST reply actions

If Harper can a) perform better than their 3rd best outfielder, and b) bring fans to the park....

Then it’s not silly at all. Service time is theoretical. Pressure is intangible. Wins and ticket sales? You can measure those.

by psiogen on Mar 8, 2026 11:40 PM EST up reply actions

I think the Nationals are losing sight of what's really important here.

As I have Harper on my Scoresheet team, he should start the season on the MLB roster and play every day.

Play hard or play elsewhere.

by lhb98 on Mar 8, 2026 10:27 AM EST reply actions

I predict 475 AB

Yes, he will get 400 AB. I think he’s good enough to be one of the three best OF options the Nats have, I think Rizzo will agree, and I think the Nats are serious about trying to win this season, so they will bring him up.

Some have asked “why not let him get more seasoning in AAA?” and I think the answer is that the Nationals need him on their MLB roster.

But when…

No, he won’t make the opening roster. That extra year of service, even as far from the present as it is, is too valuable to trade for 20 games from a player that will be about as good as 19 year-old Ken Griffey Jr. (108 OPS+). If you thought we would be Mel Ott at 19, maybe he makes the opening day roster, but that projection is beyond reason if you have zero MLB observations to base it on.

I don’t think that RIzzo should set a plan in stone today, but if I were him, I would be thinking seriously about calling him up in early May. As long as his AAA performance looks okay, and as long as you haven’t found a great platoon partner for Ankiel, and as long as Ankiel performs as expected (

I think it is pretty dumb to worry about super 2 issues in a season where you think you are a playoff contender. A playoff berth is worth as much as the additional money you would have to pay Harper (unless he’s an all star from day one). In any event, 2017 is a long way away and you should be discounting those dollars.

by philosofool on Mar 8, 2026 10:47 AM EST reply actions

My big concern would be

can he hit lefties?

I’ve often felt that hitting lefties has been a thorn in the side of many highly touted prospects. (Jay Bruce, for example, has not quite lived up to expectations for his bat, and I think his ability against lefties has held him back.)

Can John or anyone else tell me what our scouting information about Harper versus lefties suggests?

by philosofool on Mar 8, 2026 10:50 AM EST reply actions

Is he one of their best OF right now...

I’d say probably but is it worth starting his ARB clock right now. NO!

by Havok1517 on Mar 8, 2026 11:11 AM EST reply actions

Why not?

It’s really hard for me to see why a playoff berth now isn’t worth a few million dollars down the road. realistically, a team that makes the playoffs probably gets an extra few million dollars in revenues, so if adding him to the roster makes the difference in getting to the playoffs, the decision to roster him before the super-two deadline pays for itself.

by philosofool on Mar 8, 2026 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

not just the money

If this springboards them to the playoffs then we could expect more gate sales and maybe a bigger tv contract. Which could also lend to a bigger budget down the road so they could either afford Harper when he becomes a free agent or afford his replacement.

by pedrophile on Mar 8, 2026 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

remember the Pudge and Mags signings by Detroit?

And many people lambasted Ilitch when he allowed the Mags option to vest. But those players signing in Detroit, when it was a team no free agent wanted to go and the franchise wasn’t making money, brought them respectability. It also brought them an awful lot of money. Detroit is doing very well financially as well as in the wins/losses column and is a destination free agents want to go.

by pedrophile on Mar 8, 2026 2:22 PM EST up reply actions