Overall Community Prospect #30
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 2, 2025 10:47 AM EST
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PrintWith 65.4% of the vote, Bubba Starling defeats Randall Delgado and is elected Overall Community Prospect #29.
PITCHING PROSPECT #16 RANDALL DELGADO vs POSITIONAL PROSPECT #15 XANDER BOGAERTS
Positional Prospects In The Queue: #16 Anthony Rizzo, #17 Oscar Taveras, #18 Brett Jackson
Pitching Prospects In The Queue: #17 Archie Bradley, #18 Martin Perez, #19 Zack Wheeler
OVERALL COMMUNITY PROSPECT LIST:
#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 56.9%
#02 - MIKE TROUT - 60%
#03 - MATT MOORE - 96%
#04 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 51.9%
#05 - JULIO TEHERAN - 60.9%
#06 - SHELBY MILLER - 58.7%
#07 - MANNY MACHADO - 87.7%
#08 - DEVIN MESORACO - 69.4%
#09 - TREVOR BAUER - 55.3%
#10 - WILL MYERS - 73.8%
#11 - JESUS MONTERO - 73.7%
#12 - ANTHONY RENDON - 72.9%
#13 - TYLER SKAGGS - 54.3%
#14 - GERRIT COLE - 51.4%
#15 - TRAVIS D'ARNAUD - 60.9%
#16 - JAMESON TAILLON - 56.1%
#17 - DYLAN BUNDY - 65.0%
#18 - NOLAN ARENADO - 63.1%
#19 - DANNY HULTZEN - 81.1%
#20 - TAIJUAN WALKER - 62.7%
#21 - DREW POMERANZ - 67.9%
#22 - MIGUEL SANO - 62.5%
#23 - JACOB TURNER - 54.7%
#24 - JARROD PARKER - 60.4%
#25 - YONDER ALONSO - 68.4%
#26 - JAMES PAXTON - 61.4%
#27 - FRANCISCO LINDOR - 59.0%
#28 - CARLOS MARTINEZ - 50.8%
#29 - BUBBA STARLING - 65.2%
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by BenMc5 on Dec 2, 2025 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
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delgado is overrated — his K rate will kill him.
by Los Gueros on Dec 2, 2025 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
10th
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by gatling on Dec 2, 2025 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Did you look at his numbers before commenting?
He struck out 8.4 per 9 in AA and 10.4 per 9 in his limited AAA exposure. If something is going to kill him I’d wager on BB and HR before lack of Ks.
by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
the AAA is a small sample size
if you look at his AA numbers, he was striking out less than 22% this year
rule of thumb for me is that 25% or higher is elite. 20%-25% is merely good.
by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
There's a difference between merely good and "will kill him"
And I maintain that the BB and HR rates are much more likely to kill him than the merely good K rate.
by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
fair enough
“will kill him” is definitely an exaggeration, and i will say i don’t agree with that assessment
as for repeating what you said, i was just emphasizing the point. not meant to imply you didn’t recognize that fact.
as for my personal opinion, i just don’t think Delgado’s K rate in the minors was elite enough to project a mid-rotation arm or higher. i think he will probably settle into the back-end of a rotation.
by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
People aren't projecting him based on his minor league K rate
They’re projecting him based on the combination of stats (including how well he’s done handling large inning loads) and his raw stuff, which is much better than back-end of the rotation.
by nixa37 on Dec 2, 2025 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
sure
and all i’m saying is those people are more likely to be wrong than correct
by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2025 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
part of it is historical
i look at comparable statistical profiles in the Southern League in the past and see how often those types of prospects end up panning out
i don’t have the time to actually conduct studies, so i have to admit there is a limit to the confidence level with which i could predict Delgado
but i trust my own judgment, as i’m sure you trust yours, and just like everyone else trusts theirs.
i liked Beachy and Minor a lot going into the year, and they haven’t disappointed. honestly, if i had the balls, i’d say that Vizcaino will turn out to be the best of the trio (as compared to Teheran/Delgado). as it is, i don’t have the balls, because way too many scouts are in love with Teheran, so i ended up voting for Teheran before Vizcaino (there are also some concerns that Viz ends up a reliever, in which case, the K rate analysis doesn’t apply anymore). however, there isn’t as much love for Delgado in the scouting community as Teheran, so i’m more comfortable with projecting Viz as the better pitcher in the long-run based on the K-rates.
by blue bulldog on Dec 3, 2025 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
Not to be a dick
But I don’t see anything here that makes a case for Delgado, basically at best, being a BOR starter. I have no problem with Viz in front of Delgado. I’d probably have him their myself. I wouldn’t necessarily even vote Delgado on this early, I’m simply disagreeing with how his upside is getting characterized in here.
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
are you talking about
nothing in the text of what i wrote, or nothing in the historical statistical profiles of past SOU league pitchers informs Delgado’s future?
fwiw, i don’t think he’s a BOR starter at best. i just think he’s probably got a 75% chance as ending up as a BOR or worse.
by blue bulldog on Dec 3, 2025 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Nothing in that specific post
I mean you just say you look at pitchers with similar statistical profiles, but who all are they? Were they similarly young for the league? Did they show the ability to handle as many innings? Its not that I don’t believe you, but I don’t know what sort of parameters you’re using to make these comparisons.
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
yeah..........i did look at his numbers
and wasn’t that impressed. stuff is ok but he is a mid rotation guy, nothing more.
by Los Gueros on Dec 2, 2025 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
The stuff is better than okay
Sitting 92-93 with his fastball, touching as high as 97, to go along with a plus change and two averagish breaking balls. The issue is his ability to command his stuff.
And I’m just not sure how you could look at his numbers and come to the conclusion that it would be lack of strikeouts that would cause him to fail. Seems pretty clear that the BB rate and HR rate are far more likely to keep him from being successful.
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
nixa, you are seeing delgado through homer glasses
by Los Gueros on Dec 3, 2025 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
you need a double digit K rate in the MiLB to be a top SP.
his rate is MOR. i know that is hard to hear as a braves fan.
by Los Gueros on Dec 3, 2025 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
And you determined this how? Because reality disagrees
Of the 10 most valuable pitchers, by fWAR, in baseball over the past 3 seasons, fully 1/2 didn’t even average a K an inning in the minors. Those 5 are Lester, Jimenez, Haren, Greinke, and Halladay. So I guess all those guys are MOR pitchers…
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
you do understand the difference between MiLB and MLB K rates, right?
such as, they don’t transfer one for one……
by Los Gueros on Dec 3, 2025 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
it has to be double digit in the minors to get to the 8.5/9 level needed at MLB to be a #1 starter
do the analysis and you will see that……..
by Los Gueros on Dec 3, 2025 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I just did a quick analysis
5 of the 10 most valuable pitchers over the past 3 years didn’t have a double digit K rate in the minors, yet they’ve become #1 starters. Where is any analysis you’ve done to back up your claim?
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Why are you asking me?
You’re the one who is making a hard and fast rule (that isn’t very accurate) about how high a guys K rate needs to be in the minors for him to anything other than a MOR starter in the majors. Why would you do that if you don’t think they transfer (and I don’t think they do, that’s why I keep bringing up his stuff)?
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
i don't think you should include
Haren - He was not really on the prospect map when he was in the minors (at least it doesn’t say he was ever on BA’s Top 100 in baseball-references database). The year he really put himself on the map, was after his AAA season, in which he struck out almost 28% of batters faced. Delgado’s young, so he definitely still has potential to reach that level. If Delgado does that when he reaches AAA, I’ll consider him then.
Lester - He put up a 27% K rate in AA at age 21 in 2005, after which, he was rated as the 22nd best prospect by BA. Delgado did not do this. In 2006 Lester’s sample size was tiny, and in 2007, he was coming back from lymphoma treatment.
I’ll grant you Greinke/Halladay, but I think even you’ll admit that those are pretty rare cases.
Ubaldo is a tough call. Part of me wants to give him to you based on overall minor league career numbers. But he also had a pretty dominating 300 BF in AA in 2006 (over 28% K rate), and between then and his MLB callup, he was PCL’d. I tend to give a ton of credit to pitchers who succeed in the PCL, but I don’t really dock them points if they don’t.
overall though, i think if you canvass the stats, doesn’t it seem like it’s hard to bet on Delgado becoming a TOR?
by blue bulldog on Dec 3, 2025 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
What does this have to do with anything?
He made the ridiculous claim that you can’t be a MOR pitcher unless you strike out at least 10 per 9 in the minors. All the guys I listed were under 9 per 9 for their minor league careers. Delgado is at 9.5 per 9 for his minor league career. He struck out over 10 per 9 in his 3 minor league seasons, was still at 9 between A+ and AA last year, and posted an 8.7 this year as a 21 year old between AA and AAA. This theory of his is asinine. That’s my point. It has nothing to do with me thinking he’s likely to be a TOR pitcher, so I’m not sure why you’re going there. I just think he can clearly be a #2 with his stuff, if he’s able to refine his command (obviously a big if).
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
alright nixa, here goes.......career minor league K rates
Here are 15 of the top pitchers in MLB, 2/3 of which had MiLB K rates in double figures — better than the 5 of 10 you selectively quoted above.
Lincecum — 14.9
Hamels — 12.4
Kershaw — 11.3
J. Weaver — 11.0
F. Hernandez — 10.7
CC — 10.4
Gallardo — 10.4
Verlander — 10.3
Cain — 10.1
Cliff Lee — 10.1
Price — 9.0
Haren — 8.8
Lester — 8.3
Greinke — 7.6
Halladay — 5.9
my claim was that most #1 starters tended to have a double digit K rate in the minors. they also generally had solid walk rates, etc. Of course you have to look at a number of metrics, not just a K rate. in my opinion, the K rate needs to be that high so that once the pitchers face better competition in the majors, it falls between 8.5 and 9 at the MLB level, which I consider to be the elite in baseball.
i will admit that i didn’t realize that delgado’s career K rate was as high as it was (9.5). i was focused on what he did last year in AA, which was rather pedestrian at 8.4.
by Los Gueros on Dec 3, 2025 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
"you need a double digit K rate in the MiLB to be a top SP"
Is not the same as
my claim was that most #1 starters tended to have a double digit K rate in the minors
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
semantics
it is basically the same thing. i showed you 2/3 of the top 15 starters met this criteria. it is a good indicator among many. you look at some of delgado’s other numbers and he falls short. plus, his K rate in AA has been just ok at 8.5. most of the guys i cited had double digit K rates at AA.
by Los Gueros on Dec 3, 2025 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
No its not semantics
One says you NEED a double digit K rate, while the other just says most #1’s did.
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
i would still argue that you generally need a double digit rate
2/3 of the top 15 is a useful indicator.
halladay was a true aberation; lester had cancer; price was very close and wasn’t in the minors very long anyway; and greinke is greinke — probably playing around with guys when his talent was much better than that (i.e., trying out new pitches ,etc.).
by Los Gueros on Dec 3, 2025 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
Generally need =/= need
You say 2/3 of the top 15, I say 1/2 the top 10. I
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Also I thought you said you looked at his numbers
If you did, how did you miss his career K rate?
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
because i was looking at some of the couple of seasons
rather than when he was throwing up double digit K rates in the low minors — that’s why. there really is no need to be so snarky about this.
we disagree about delgado’s upside. i think he would be lucky to be a #2. odds are he will be a #3 or worse. i am not alone in this assessment.
by Los Gueros on Dec 3, 2025 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
That is essentially my assessment as well
My issue is the incorrect statements you’ve made to support that idea (also I don’t consider a legit #2 a MOR starter but that’s another issue).
And speaking of snark, I wasn’t the one throwing out comments about homer glasses, so I think we both qualify on that one.
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
Well I guess I don't see luck being involved
If he can command his pitches, he should be a #2. He already has the stuff, he just needs to be able to use it efficiently.
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
i don't think he will ever be a #2
thus, MOR.
by Los Gueros on Dec 3, 2025 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
You just admitted that he could though
I doubt he ends up a #2 either. Doesn’t change the fact that he has the stuff and his K rate doesn’t preclude it.
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
no offense
but isn’t this a pretty meaningless statement?
strictly speaking, lots of people “could” end up as a #2. Dan Haren made it as way better than a #2 without ever breaking BA’s Top 100. very rarely will you say something 100% precludes a pitching prospect at ending up a #2.
what we care about is how high of a chance he’s got right?
by blue bulldog on Dec 4, 2025 1:52 AM EST up reply actions
How is it meaningless?
He has the stuff to be a #2, he just needs to learn to command it. Its not likely, but its a completely reasonable possibility.
And stop bringing up Haren. He had one full season in the minors before he lost eligibility and hadn’t made it past high A at that point. If he hadn’t surpassed the innings limit, he would have been a top prospect after 2003.
by nixa37 on Dec 4, 2025 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Ask Braves fans about me, I've been his most vocal detractor over at TalkingChop
But I was very impressed by his stuff when he actually made his MLB starts. His command of it was pretty piss poor, but he clearly has better than okay stuff. If he refines his command, I think his ultimate upside is a solid #2. I think its unlikely he makes big strides with regards to his command, but if he has significantly more upside than you’re giving him credit for.
by nixa37 on Dec 3, 2025 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Funny, that’s a valid criticism of Bogaerts too.
by limozeen on Dec 2, 2025 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
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by JD Sussman on Dec 3, 2025 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
Had to switch from Delgado to Bogaerts for ths one.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 2, 2025 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Same here
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RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Dec 2, 2025 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
if it were up to me, I'd slot Bogaerts at 22, right after Drew Pomeranz
I'm sorry I impugned your cocksmanship.
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by purple_haze on Dec 2, 2025 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
I have Bogaerts at 29 on my overall list
But still fifth in line for me right now.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 2, 2025 11:07 PM EST reply actions
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