Who would you rather have....

by Cheezhead on Jan 31, 2026 12:22 PM EST

Who would you rather have for the next 10 seasons, Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller or Yu Darvish?

All project as likely top of the rotation aces. If Darvish can come anywhere close to his stats from Japan, then he'll obviously win out, but it's unlikely that he'll come near those numbers (1.44 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 2011)

Teheran dominated Triple-A last year at only 20 years old but his strikeout rate fell to under 8 K/9, which I find particularly troublesome. If you look at the top pitchers in baseball today, every one of them is an elite strikeout pitcher. If Teheran's getting under 8 K/9 in the minors, I could see him only getting like 7 K/9 in the majors. However, at 20 years old he still has room for improvement in this area.

Miller had a great 2011 across High-A and Double-A ball, putting up a 2.8 ERA and striking out 11 batters per 9 innings. The only complaint with him is that he needs to sharpen up his command. Miller's WHIP was 1.18 last year, which while solid, needs to improve for him to be the true ace he projects as.

So what do you all think? I'm leaning towards Miller - Teheran - Darvish in that order. Obviously if I were a major league team I'd be happy with any of them though. Please try to ignore Darvish's salary. Let's make this about talent only.

Poll

Who would you rather have for the next 10 seasons?

Julio Teheran

35 votes

Yu Darvish

67 votes

Shelby Miller

69 votes

171 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 50 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Read More: Shelby Miller (P - STL), Julio Teheran (P - ATL), Yu Darvish (P - TEX)

Comments

Matt Moore

I also thought about adding in Matt Moore, but he’s a step ahead of these guys imo. Would you guys all also rather have him?

by Cheezhead on Jan 31, 2026 12:36 PM EST reply actions

MM

Ah, this is closer though. I think I’d go with the younger Moore actually (assuming 5X5 or something similar) over Yu Darvish especially considering he should be in the rotation immediately. I think Moore has more ‘uber ace’ potential, but both could be stalwarts if all goes as many think it will.

by Matt0330 on Jan 31, 2026 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

I was actually just wondering

why you selected these three pitchers in particular. Without really trying to come up with an exhaustive list, I think you could make a case that Moore, Taillon, Cole, Bundy, Bauer, and Hultzen might at garner some support if included in the vote.

FWIW, I voted for Miller because he really used his secondary stuff well this year and his numbers continue to back up the scouting report. Darvish obviously has too, but he’s 25 so even if you assume that Japan is somewhere between AAA and the majors, he’s older than Miller and Teheran so you would expect a slightly better performance IMO.

by KentuckyPirate on Jan 31, 2026 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

I chose these guys...

Because of the top pitching prospects, they’re the guys I think could make a real impact in 2012. Darvish will obviously start the year in the majors, Teheran should be up by June at the latest, and I could also see Miller being called up by mid-season if he continues to dominate in the minors. I didn’t want to include Moore, because I think that he’s just a head above every else, and didn’t want him to get like 70% of the vote (which is what I thought he’d get if I added him).

Of the other guys you listed, while they all may become aces too, I don’t see any of them reaching the majors this year.

by Cheezhead on Jan 31, 2026 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

Makes sense

I’d be surprised to see Miller in St. Louis this year but I could be wrong and the only one in the larger group that I think could see a midseason callup for would be Bauer. Just wondering what your thought process was.

by KentuckyPirate on Jan 31, 2026 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

How are Teheran's numbers not backing up the scouting reports?

He just posted the best ERA and second best FIP in the International League as a 20 year old. He wore down at the end of the season, but until his start on 7/31 he had an FIP of ~2.50. What more do people want to see?

by nixa37 on Jan 31, 2026 5:28 PM EST up reply actions

we've had this conversation before

but ERA and FIP are not good predictors of success at the majors

for a guy who cheers for a team that boasts Hanson, Minor, and Beachy i’m surprised how much you don’t appreciate pure minor league strikeout rates

by blue bulldog on Jan 31, 2026 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

So what should we look at? K rate alone?

And like I said below, the point of the minors isn’t to rack up the best stats, its to prepare guys to pitch in the majors. Teheran dominated his league this year even though he was one of the youngest (I believe he was the youngest, but I’m not sure) guys there. He gets rave reviews from scouts. Who cares if he “only” struck out 7.6 guys per 9?

by nixa37 on Jan 31, 2026 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

you'll have to convince me

that the Braves took a wildly different approach to developing Teheran, than they did with Hanson, Minor, and Beachy

i can’t speak for others, but when i look at pitchers stats, i pretty much only look at K rate (and K swinging rate) for guys in the lower minors. when they reach the upper minors (AA and AAA) i still look at K rate and K swinging rate, but also begin paying attention to walk rates.

by blue bulldog on Jan 31, 2026 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

Well they did take a wildly different approach

I mean they didn’t even bring Minor or Beachy into the organization until they were older than Teheran was when he made his major league debut. Hanson was still down in A ball when he was Teheran’s age. The development path they’ve had Teheran follow is far different from the ones those guys followed. With Hanson and Beachy, the Braves wouldn’t promote them until they completely dominated a level, while they were much more aggressive with Teheran. As far as Minor, he was a polished college lefty that was already known for having good pitchability. Of course they weren’t going to make him focus on learning how to pitching in the upper minors, they wanted to see him dominate as much as he could. He didn’t need to “learn how to pitch” like Teheran did/does.

Like I said, if you are solely focusing on K rate, you’re liable to miss the forest for the trees. Not all players are focused on the same things in the minors. Looking at K rates as if they’re a completely accurate reflection of a pitchers ability is just a flawed methodology IMO. Why would you ignore everything else?

And if you are looking at both K rate and BB rate in the upper minors, then I hope you noted my comment below comparing Miller and Teheran purely in terms of K rate and BB rate. The difference in FIP contribution between those two (taking HR rate out of the equation) leaves Miller’s AA performance only .15 points better than Teheran’s AAA performance.

by nixa37 on Jan 31, 2026 10:03 PM EST up reply actions

Also, look at the post I was replying to

He mentioned Miller’s numbers backing up his scouting reports. I was simply pointing out the numbers for Teheran that clearly back up the great scouting reports he gets.

by nixa37 on Jan 31, 2026 5:58 PM EST up reply actions

Yu

Do you mean 10 years starting in 2012? I’d go with Darvish pretty easily (and I am really big on Julio Teheran too for what that’s worth). Play for today in my opinion.

by Matt0330 on Jan 31, 2026 12:38 PM EST reply actions

That's another question

if we’re talking about for this year, then I that’s a big checkmark in Darvish’s favor because he is the most likely to contribute this season.

by KentuckyPirate on Jan 31, 2026 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

Starting in 2012

Yes, I meant starting in 2012. I think that all 3 of these guys will have an impact in the majors in 2012, although I agree that Darvish will probably be the best this year. Miller and Teheran should both be firmly entrenched in MLB rotations by next season, and I could see them both being top pitchers immediately.

by Cheezhead on Jan 31, 2026 12:51 PM EST reply actions

Miller

Yes, I am a Cards fan, but Miller has the perfect pitcher’s frame, delivery, and assortment of pitches. If the change up turns above-average or plus, he’s an Ace. If the change up stays average, he’s Matt Cain, a #2 who looks pitches like a #1 a lot.

Teheran’s biggest argument is his youth at Triple-A, but that doesn’t excuses his relatively low K rate. He’ll have to walk 2 per 9 or less to be an Ace with a K rate in the 7 or 8 per 9 range.

Darvish looks like a lock to be a #2 at this point, but who knows how all those innings in Japan before his mid-twenties will affect him?

Miller, Darvish, then Teheran for me.

by johnorpheus on Jan 31, 2026 1:27 PM EST reply actions

i have the same order

by blue bulldog on Jan 31, 2026 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by guru4u on Jan 31, 2026 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

The point of the minors isn't to rack up the best stats

This is what Teheran’s detractors seem to miss. Yes, he didn’t rack up elite K rates, but that has as much to do with the Braves development philosophy as anything else. For one thing, he’s never attempted to use a slider in game because the Braves want young pitchers to focus on curves over sliders in their formative years. They shelved Beachy’s until this year, as well as Hanson’s and Delgado’s slider until their age 21 season. I would honestly be surprised if he wasn’t working on a slider this offseason that he’ll probably debut in ST. Secondly, they seemed to place a ton of emphasis on Teheran being efficient instead of going for Ks. AAA hitters couldn’t handle his stuff even if he wasn’t getting Ks. There’s a reason his BABIP and HR/9 were so low.

I also think you’re blowing the difference between the performance of the two out of proportion. You make it out like their relative K/9 and BB/9 leave Teheran far behind Miller. If you compare Teheran’s numbers to what Miller did in AA, Miller gets just a .15 edge in FIP from his K and BB rates and that’s while pitching at a lower level. You do realize Teheran finished second in the IL in FIP as a 20 year old (only guy ahead was 4 years older), right? Even from a DIPS perspective, Teheran’s performance last year was incredibly impressive.

by nixa37 on Jan 31, 2026 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

Not saying Teheran wasn't impressive.

But I think his K and BB numbers will correlate closely to his future MLB numbers. Fact is, over 140 minor league innings last year and only struck out 7.59 batters per 9 while walking 3 per 9. That’s basically the numbers of a good #2, with the obvious variable being GB%, but it would take an elite GB% in the majors to make him a #1 with those numbers. And if it is an org philosophy, it’s likely to stick through the majors.

by johnorpheus on Jan 31, 2026 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

"If it is an org philosophy, it’s likely to stick through the majors"

Did you actually read what I wrote? The whole slider thing is only early on in professional careers. I named 3 (actually left out Minor who reintroduced his slider this year) recent examples of Braves pitchers who started using a slider later on in their development (all while older than Teheran was this year). Its clearly not an organization philosophy that sticks through the majors. As far as the efficiency, it doesn’t really matter if it sticks or not (though like I said, its something they want him to work on now, that doesn’t mean things won’t change in games that actually matter). Its just a different way of attacking hitters. There are plenty of successful pitchers that strike out in the neighborhood of 7.6 per 9 and walk around 3 per 9 (and he’s 20, there is no reason to think he can’t improve). Hell, look at Matt Cain (a comp you made for Miller), he of the 7.41 career K/9 and 3.23 BB/9.

by nixa37 on Jan 31, 2026 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

he's talking about Cain

as if Cain is like maybe a 50th percentile outcome for Miller

whereas i’d bet he’d be thinking about Cain as a 75th percentile outcome for Teheran

by blue bulldog on Jan 31, 2026 9:47 PM EST up reply actions

Which I don't agree with, but its beside the point I was making

My point was that a pitcher can still be extremely successful even with the “modest” numbers that Teheran posted this year as one of the youngest players in AAA.

by nixa37 on Jan 31, 2026 9:52 PM EST up reply actions

Cain is good

but he’s not that good….

i’m pretty sure if Teheran turned out to be Matt Cain, a lot of prospect evaluators will be disappointed

by blue bulldog on Feb 1, 2026 9:32 AM EST up reply actions

If anyone is disappointed with that outcome then they're just not doing it right

You’re talking about a consistent 4+ win pitcher when we look at actual results (instead of FIP) over the past 5 years who has a 2.97 ERA in 220+ IP a season of the past 3 years. He just turned 27 a few months ago too, so we still may not have even seen the best he has to offer.

by nixa37 on Feb 1, 2026 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

agreed, most teams would be thrilled with that outcome

by pedrophile on Feb 1, 2026 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

Since Cain became a full time starter in '06

he has the 11th highest bWAR out of all pitchers in baseball (23.4). Not only that, he has pitched the sixth most innings and as nixa said above, he’s only 27. So you have an elite, innings-eating 27 year old. There are a very select number of teams that wouldn’t consider that guy to be an absolute ace.

by KentuckyPirate on Feb 1, 2026 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

fine

what about Cain, without his insane ability to limit HR on FB?

how confident are you that Teheran will be able to replicate that ability once he hits the majors?

by blue bulldog on Feb 1, 2026 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

As confident as you can be about a guy in the minors with a high FB rate

He’s done a great job of limiting HR throughout his minor league career up to this point. My comment was based on the assumption that Teheran turns into Cain, which in my estimation included that ability as part of the assumption.

by nixa37 on Feb 1, 2026 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

I think you are making a few assumptions

1) His slider will improve with more work
2) His curve will not regress when it isn’t used as much in a game

Further, I think you are underestimating the importance of missing bats. It is good he is succeeding while putting the ball in play. But the ability to miss bats in the zone is huge. In the majors hitters do not chase as much.

by pedrophile on Jan 31, 2026 9:05 PM EST up reply actions

I didn't assume those things at all

My point was that you shouldn’t place so much importance on minor league stats when teams are focused on developing major league, not guys who can post huge stats in the minors. Its entirely possible that Teheran would have better numbers in the minors if he threw a slider at this point, but the Braves don’t let SP his age throw sliders.

It has nothing to do with improving with more work either. For all we know, he may already have a plus slider that the Braves just don’t let him throw. Just look at Hanson and Beachy. They went from not having sliders at all as far as scouts were concerned to both having sliders that were at least plus, if not better, immediately (with Hanson it was literally midseason…his first game throwing the slider was his no hitter). I’m not saying that Teheran is in the same boat or anything, but this just gets into the ridiculous idea that Teheran at 20 is already a finished product with little room to improve.

I’m not underestimating the importance of missing bats. Obviously it is very important, but it has nothing to do with my point which is that he could probably miss more bats if the team had him going out there focusing on missing bats. Instead they focused on pitchability and it still led to him completely dominating AAA as a 20 year old. Why would you assume he couldn’t miss more bats if that was the focus? He clearly has the stuff to do so, as all the scouting reports on him the past few years have said.

And, once again, he doesn’t have nearly the trouble missing bats that people are trying to act like he does. His 7.6 K/9 is perfectly acceptable for a 20 year old in AAA, and before he tired in the last month or so of the season he was up at 8.2 K/9. Honestly, I’m more worried about his ability to handle a 200 inning workload than I am about his ability to miss bats.

by nixa37 on Jan 31, 2026 9:38 PM EST up reply actions

he does miss bats and is an excellent prospect

I do want to see how good his slider is though. We always hear about how good the potential curve/change is for a given prospect. But all too often the curve gets shelved. And all too often the change doesn’t progress as expected.

IMO I think part of the reason they focus on curve and not slider is they want to see if the pitcher can consistently throw the curve. I doubt it’s injury concern as the curve is a bigger risk. But the curve just needs so much more repetition than any other pitch. In the minors you can get away with a sweeping curve that is either hittable or isn’t located in the zone but hitters chase. But a quality in-zone curve is hard to master.

That’s my guess why the Braves approach it that way. Then they work the slider in.

Personally I think Teheran might have to shelve his curve. So how his slider develops will be crucial. I think that is why some are hesitant about putting him in the top 15 or so but also believe he is a very good prospect. He is young, has a great arm, excellent velocity, excellent results, but there remains uncertainty with his secondary pitches. That’s why a few months back when we were arguing Moore vs. Teheran I felt so strongly for Moore. Moore had a curve that also appeared dominant but was quite inconsistent. But Moore has a change that is a plus or plus plus pitch that is very consistent. Teheran just had more question marks for me and still does compared to a few other prospects.

by pedrophile on Feb 1, 2026 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think Moore had that change when we argued the two

At least I don’t really remember hearing reports about it back then. I’ve been pretty firmly on the Moore over Teheran side of the argument for a a decent amount of time at this point (and took some crap at the Braves SBN site for disagreeing that there was an argument for Teheran over Moore).

I just think Teheran is getting nitpicked to death by a lot of people at this point. Not to pick on you or anything, but as an example I’m not sure why you would think Teheran would need to shelve the curve. Perhaps he does for the most part if he has a good slider, but most people seem to agree its at least average at this point and flashes at least plus fairly regularly. The biggest issue with the pitch for him right now is just being able to locate it, which is something I would expect to improve some as he gains more experience. I’m just not sure why you would think he might have to shelve it.

Honestly, to a certain extent, this reminds of Madison Bumgarner without the disappearing velocity. I worried about MadBum because of the velocity questions, but people certainly shouldn’t have been questioning his performance outside of that. Its a similar deal with Teheran in my opinion. People are just getting so caught up in a merely good K rate that they’re missing the consistently strong scouting reports and overall great performances. To put things into perspective, since 2006 there have been 211 IP in the IL by 20 year olds. 144.2 of them were thrown by Teheran and he was completely dominant there until the last month of the season. Yet somehow this has either left his prospect standing stagnant or forced it to drop some. Outside of nitpicking and prospect fatigue, I just don’t see another good reason for that.

by nixa37 on Feb 1, 2026 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

In case the end of that first paragraph wasn't clear

I was arguing that there was no argument for Teheran over Moore in response to claims by other posters that there were.

by nixa37 on Feb 1, 2026 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

I think I had the argument with someone else

they were screaming we were stupid, etc. to not understand how Teheran’s numbers at a younger age in a higher level proved Teheran was a better prospect. There are far too many here that look at stats alone.

by pedrophile on Feb 1, 2026 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

There are far too many here that look at stats alone

Yeah I used to fall more in that camp, but I’ve moved towards a more mixed philosophy the past year or so. I do think a lot can be learned from stats, but there is obviously more to the picture than just that. Many times though the scouting reports we get aren’t especially current (not until the offseason at least), so in season the numbers can give us clues as to what’s going on. For the most part though, I’m never going to ignore someone that is dominating in the high minors at a young age unless there is something very damning in their scouting reports.

by nixa37 on Feb 1, 2026 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

nobody's ignoring him

this isn’t like “either Teheran is the best pitching prospect in baseball or he’s outside the Top 50 pitching prospects completely”

even though i’m not happy with Teheran’s strikeout rates, i’d still have him as probably the fifth best pitching prospect in baseball

by blue bulldog on Feb 1, 2026 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

I didn't say anyone was ignoring him

I wasn’t talking about Teheran specifically or even talking about guys that get ignored (though I guess it kind of reads that way). My intent was simply to say that I never ignore great ARL performance in the upper minors, even if scouting reports aren’t strong.

by nixa37 on Feb 1, 2026 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

the two should match

like when we see guys with good K rates and miniscule BB rates. Sometimes they are excellent prospects, more often the scouting shows a pitcher with multiple pitches they can throw for strikes and they are advanced for their level. Usually in the lower levels.

Sometimes what the numbers tell is counter-intuitive.

When the scouting and the numbers don’t match then there is some missing factor. Whether it is an old or inaccurate scouting report, or a player is focusing on an aspect of their game, etc. This is the tricky part of evaluating IMO.

by pedrophile on Feb 1, 2026 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

Moore had the change but it wasn't his featured pitch

Even now he still tries to use his curve more, but it seems like he is gaining more confidence in the change. In the last two years the change has come a long ways.

He may/may not need to shelve it. It seems like he does miss high with it and that could be dangerous. But it’s not really about Teheran. Many pitchers are quoted with an excellent curve only to shelve it. Lincecum did the same, many others have as well. IMO more MLB pitching coaches focus on pitches that can be located in-zone, like the slider, cutter, change, etc.

I think a lot of the nitpicking for Teheran is a backlash against when he was considered the top one or two pitching prospect. It’s not entirely fair. But I do understand why some would prefer a few pitchers over him.

FWIW I understand why some rate Banuelos over Teheran. Banuelos fastball is about two ticks slower but he is a LHP, Teheran has the better curve but Banuelos change is the best off-speed pitch. So I can see the reasoning. I would probably prefer Teheran because the loss of control last year and the yo-yo ing velocity that Banuelos shows disturbs me.

by pedrophile on Feb 1, 2026 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

I think you may be underrating Teheran's change a bit

It is an absolutely filthy pitch (flashes plus-plus) when he keeps his arm speed up, something he did a better job of later in the season. In one of his appearances later in the year he had a LHB jumping out of the way of a change that probably ended up on the border of middle third of the plate. I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a MLB hitter jump out of the way of a change like that. FWIW there were only 4 qualified RHP that got more of a horizontal movement differential between their FB and CH than Teheran did in a limited sample size last year.

by nixa37 on Feb 1, 2026 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

maybe the times I saw him it wasn't developed as much

admittedly I saw him early and mid-season.

by pedrophile on Feb 1, 2026 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

As much as anything the problem was slowing down his arm

Not only does it remove deception, but it also leads to less consistent movement in general. He fell into the trap (like many young pitchers) of slowing down his arm to get more movement and a greater velocity differential, which does work some of the time but also leads to a lot more “hung” changeups because it can throw off the timing of pronation and release.

by nixa37 on Feb 1, 2026 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

that makes a lot of sense

and it’s exactly the type of thing I want to hear about a prospect.

by pedrophile on Feb 1, 2026 11:58 PM EST up reply actions

Bauer

give me Trevor Bauer

by High Heater on Jan 31, 2026 3:48 PM EST reply actions

at this point

flip a coin. what i mean by that is, you could pick ANY of those three, and they will probably end up anchoring your rotation for years to come. do best out of three, pick a tiger by his toe, doesnt matter. you can’t lose with any of them. at first i started to type how id take darvish, then backed off and thought miller, then even thought maybe teheran. these guys are all damn good. dylan bundy will be in this same conversation a year or two from now. i like bauer, but i think his delivery is going to give him the arm problems that everybody thought lincecum might have, but managed to avoid.

by rangersfan24 on Jan 31, 2026 4:19 PM EST reply actions