Texas High School Pitchers Drafted in the First Round, 1981-2010

by John Sickels on May 19, 2025 2:05 PM EDT

LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 12: Scott Kazmir #19 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 12, 2025 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Kerry Wood's retirement got me thinking about Texas high school pitchers, so I put together a little list.

Here is a summary of all Texas high school pitchers drafted (and signed) in the first round from 1981 through 2010. Take a look and draw your own conclusions.

Texas High School Pitchers Drafted in the First Round, 1981-2011

Rickey Barlow, 1981, Tigers Did not pitch in majors
Jimmy Jones, 1982, Padres 4.46 ERA in 755 innings, ERA+ 82, 5.6 WAR
Jackie Davidson, 1983, Cubs Did not pitch in majors
Wayne Dotson, 1983, Tigers Did not pitch in majors

Scott Scudder, 1986, Reds 4.80 ERA in 386 innings, ERA+ 80, 0.6 WAR
Brian Bohanon, 1987, Rangers 5.19 ERA in 1116 innings, ERA+ 94, 10.6 WAR
Todd Ritchie, 1990, Twins 4.71 ERA in 836 innings, ERA+ 98, 10.6 WAR
Todd Van Poppel, 1990, Athletics 5.58 ERA in 907 innings, ERA+ 80, 2.1 WAR

Robbie Beckett, 1990, Padres 11.57 ERA in 7 innings, ERA+ 49, -0.3 WAR
Kerry Wood, 1995, Cubs 3.67 ERA in 1380 innings, ERA+ 117, 23.4 WAR
Andrew Yount, 1995, Red Sox Did not pitch in majors
John Patterson, 1996, Expos 4.32 ERA in 454 innings, ERA+ 100, 5.9 WAR

Mark Mangum, 1997, Rockies Did not pitch in majors
Josh Beckett, 1999, Marlins 3.86 ERA in 1763 innings, ERA+114, 37.9 WAR
Josh Girdley, 1999, Expos Did not pitch in majors
Colt Griffin, 2001, Royals Did not pitch in majors

Clint Everts, 2002, Expos Has not pitched in majors, currently in Double-A
Scott Kazmir, 2002, Mets 4.17 ERA in 1022 innings, ERA+ 105, 16.6 WAR
John Danks, 2003, Rangers 4.15 ERA in 965 innings, ERA+ 108, 16.4 WAR
Homer Bailey, 2004, Reds 4.85 ERA in 477 innings, ERA+ 85, 4.9 WAR

Aaron Thompson, 2005, Marlins 7.04 ERA in 8 innings, ERA+ 56, -0.2 WAR
Clayton Kershaw, 2006, Dodgers 2.83 ERA in 769 innings, ERA+ 137, 18.2 WAR
Kyle Drabek, 2006, Phillies 5.01 ERA in 142 innings, ERA+ 86, 0.3 WAR
Blake Beavan, 2007, Rangers 4.35 ERA in 134 innings, ERA+ 87, 0.7 WAR

Chris Withrow, 2007, Dodgers Currently in Double-A
Shelby Miller, 2009, Cardinals Currently in Triple-A
Jameson Taillon, 2010, Pirates Currently in High-A
Zach Lee, 2010, Dodgers Currently in High-A

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Read More: John Danks (P - CWS), Josh Beckett (P - BOS), Homer Bailey (P - CIN), John Patterson (TEX), Scott Kazmir (P - ANA), Kerry Wood (P - NYY), Aaron Thompson (P - MIN), Kyle Drabek (P - TOR), Todd Ritchie (P - COL), Clayton Kershaw (P - LOS), Clint Everts (P - TOR), Shelby Miller (P - STL), Chris Withrow (P - LOS), Blake Beavan (P - SEA), Zach Lee (P - LOS), San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers

Comments

Very interesting

It looks like things are looking up, with Kershaw established as one of the best in the business and Taillon, Miller and Lee on the way.

by kyuss94 on May 19, 2025 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

What's interesting to me

Is that prior to the last decade, there seemed to be waves…81 to 82, 86 to 90, 95 to 97 or 99…since then it’s been more like one a year, much more consistently rather than bunches.

I wonder if this is just random variation, or it reflects how scouting has changed or evolved over the years

by MjwW on May 19, 2025 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

one interesting note

12 TX HS pitchers drafted since 2002 . . .but 7 of them have been drafted by 3 teams. Mets with Everts and Kazmir out of the same HS in 2002. Rangers with Danks and Beavan. Dodgers with Kershaw, Withrow, and Lee.

Are you part of the Padres MInor League Ball Mock Draft team? Jump over to the thread here: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/7/3005839/padres-mod-thread UPDATED MAY 10

by mrkupe on May 19, 2025 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Everts was the Expos not Mets

Dodgers all within last 5 years…was this the same regime, same scout possibly?

I’d be interested, and may be if I have some time will look, and what happened in the next 5 rounds. Ie, of the 81-83 wave, none really worked out…did that make teams shy for a while, and cause Texas HS to drop, etc ,etc after each wave.

It’s probably nothing, but it would be interesting to see if the data bear it out

by MjwW on May 19, 2025 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

whoops, sorry, yeah I messed that up

For some reason I tied Everts to the Mets. I think he signed there a couple of years ago as a free agent.

He was a noted overdraft at the time, it should be said. Very athletic (was a good prospect as a SS as well), stuff wasn’t overwhelming. Never quite recovered from Tommy John.

Are you part of the Padres MInor League Ball Mock Draft team? Jump over to the thread here: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/7/3005839/padres-mod-thread UPDATED MAY 10

by mrkupe on May 19, 2025 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't recall Everts being that much of an overdraft.

Not that it’s the arbiter, particularly, but I believe he was the Expos #1 prospect the year after he was drafted. As I recall Everys, Kazmir and Greinke were all #1?

“Everts is an outstanding athlete with a projectable body and the makings of three plus major league pitches. He has a solid, balanced delivery and a clean, easy arm action, which enables him to generate lightning-quick arm speed. His fastball sat at 88-92 mph with good movement in 2003, and he should increase his velocity as he adds strength to his slender frame. The development of his changeup and curveball are further along at this point. His curveball, an 80-84 mph bender with great depth and tight spin, grades as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. It projects as a strikeout pitch in the majors.Everts’ 78-81 mph changeup is almost as good as his curve. It’s a plus pitch that he has an exceptional feel for. He didn’t turn 19 until late in the season, so he’s well ahead of most pitchers his age.”

by charles wallace on May 19, 2025 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

yah, he was the Expos #1

I do believe he was intended as something of a signability pick for the Expos, though . . .even if it didn’t work out in reality (rumors of a predraft deal not being true).

I’m not sure, but he might’ve had a first round grade as a shortstop as well. I think the top rated HS pitchers in that class were Kazmir, Greinke, and Cole Hamels. Chris Shuler was up there too.

Are you part of the Padres MInor League Ball Mock Draft team? Jump over to the thread here: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/7/3005839/padres-mod-thread-3 UPDATED MAY 19

by mrkupe on May 19, 2025 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Kershaw, Lee and Withrow were, in fact...

all signed by the same scout…Calvin Jones.

by mlbprospectpulse on May 19, 2025 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for that

by MjwW on May 19, 2025 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Expos had a little run of their own

1996, 1999, and 2002

by MjwW on May 19, 2025 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Pattern

I think there could be a third explanation for the consistency since 1999 - an archetype effect from the successes of Wood and Beckett. As long as mining the vein of 6’4" HS righthanders from Tex continues to pan out, we may see those guys get a bump as a bit of a tiebreaker in people’s minds.

I have no idea why it would matter if a flamethrowing pitcher is from TX, GA, LA, or FLA, but it seems like multiple times a year I see some guy cited as a comp to Wood or Beckett in physical size and because “he’s from Texas.”

by siddfynch on May 20, 2025 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

John Patterson was a Texas HS arm?

Who knew? I always liked his stuff but just did not work out there. I was also big on Clint Everts because of his curveball and athleticism, but that didn’t work out either.

Agreed that it’s become kind of a thing for every year to have a hard throwing Texas HS pitcher. Maybe it’s something in the water?

by SenorGato on May 19, 2025 6:14 PM EDT reply actions

just got over my Kazmir nightmares a couple weeks ago

thanks John

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on May 20, 2025 12:26 AM EDT reply actions

pretty successful list I'd say

and …sigh…when I see Kazmir up there

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on May 20, 2025 8:49 AM EDT reply actions

Kazmir vs Bailey

Was Kazmir that much of a heart-breaker? I’m assuming the sighs are not coming from Mets fans, as that is justifiable, but look at the numbers he put up in a very short period of time. Yes, its fun to imagine the Rays or Angels’ rotations with a 28 year old Kazmir if he would have continued to progress as planned but 16.6 WAR in roughly 6 years (throwing out his debut year and 2010 and later after he collapsed) is pretty good, especially when that even includes a stinker in 2009.

Which brings me to my question, with the knowledge of how their careers have turned out so far who would you take at the start of their career and have for as long as you want, Scott Kazmir or Homer Bailey?

In several discussions I’ve had I seem to be in the vast minority in preferring Kazmir even though his career is probably over. While it was short he had a pretty great peak (2005-2008) where he was a Top-20 pitcher. Bailey, while still pitching and young enough to turn into a valuable starter has yet to be anything better than average so far.

by Zeke K on May 20, 2025 11:54 AM EDT reply actions

Interesting

Just did a write up a couple of weeks ago and concluded that Drabek’s ultimate comp floor might be a guy like Homer Bailey. Anyone interested in reading, let me know and I’ll flip you the link.

by therichardandmartin on May 21, 2025 10:51 PM EDT reply actions