Drew Hutchison's MLB trial

by criminal type on May 19, 2025 9:33 AM EDT

Hutchison has performed better than I expected given that he arrived in Toronto with exactly four career starts above Class A Advanced.

His line so far:

• 33 2/3 ip, 37h, 18er, 14bb, 24k

• 3-1, 4.81 ERA

• Showing a slight fly-ball tendency, though his HR/9 is .8. Acceptable.

Here's what surprises me: His fastball isn't hot -- at all. Against the Yankees earlier this week, Hutchison averaged 90.66 with his 4-seamer and 90.00 with his 2-seamer. He threw slightly harder against the Twins two starts back (FB averaging 91), but he clearly isn't burning radar guns.

Is 90.5 going to be enough? Please, no Jamie Moyer references. Hutchison is 21.

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He's not going to be an ace

But for what he can be - a #3 starter or so - a 91 MPH fastball will do.

I’ve been kind of concerned with what I’ve seen from Hutchison, with the high walk totals and fly balls. That’s not a good combo. That’s not to diminish his potential, I’m just concerned that he’s not quite ready for the big leagues.

by 4dizzle on May 19, 2025 11:00 AM EDT reply actions

Hutchison was never supposed to be a burner

He’s thrown harder in some starts, but I was only only expecting him to sit 90-91 based off reports from the minors.

I have been reasonably impressed. He’s not been great, but he’s holding his own, and has faced the Yankees, Angels and Rangers, so not just rolling over all weak competition.

The key for him is commanding his two seamer - he’s had trouble doing it, so he’s not getting ahead of left handed hitter, which means they’ve been getting a lot of hitters counts and his change to use the change-up has sometimes been limited (he initially showed a reluctance to use when not ahead in the count, that may have stemmed from having it taken yard twice in his debut against KC). Recently, he’s been mixing it in more in different counts. This is a large reason for the high BB totals….against LHB he has a 9/9 K/BB ratio versus a completely acceptable 15/5 ratio against RHB.

Also, he needs to work inside a bit more - he’s shown a tendency to completely shy away from going inside, allowing hitters to just sit middle out and drive the drive the other way, particularly the second time through once they’ve had a look. The Rangers in particular did this, the first time through he rolled through the line-up, the second time has a succession of line drive hits the other way. There’s been signs he’s starting to adjust here as well.

Finally, a minor quibble - he made 3 AA starts last year and 3 this year, and possibly a AA playoff start as well. So that’s actually 6 or 7 starts above high-A, not that it changes the point at all.

by MjwW on May 19, 2025 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

Not a trial, he was named the 5th starter when he came up

His fly ball rate is at 27%, but his LD% is over 30 which means he’s getting tee’d up. All of his pitches have negative pitch values, and his breaking pitches are just getting slammed. He could use ~100 innings in AAA to refine his breaking stuff and tighten his command instead of having to do it in the big leagues.

All that being said, he’s doing a fantastic job of holding his own and working out of jams, especially for a 21 year old. I expect the Jays to start limiting his innings a little bit ala Drew Smyly

by another know it all on May 19, 2025 11:20 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks for the great feedback

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by criminal type on May 19, 2025 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

his fastball velocity is fine. He doesn’t throw too hard but it plays up with his deception and he commands it well. Its his best pitch IMO. His velocity seemed to drop a little bit by the time he got to the 5th/6th inning but it wasn’t a sharp decline or anything. Just that you wouldn’t consistently see him hit 92-93 you saw earlier in the game.

His slider has been a decent pitch, it’s got potential. He’s got some swings and misses with it. Haven’t seen him use his change-up much and im not sure why. It was supposed to be his best pitch but other than his first start where his change-ups got homered, its been a decent pitch for him.

I like the stuff, I like his command, though at times he’s walked a little too many guys. He just has to sharpen his stuff a little bit. Hes so young and probably shouldn’t be in the MLB.

One thing he does really well is commanding his fastball away from hitters but the negative is, he does that far too much. Line-ups have started to hit him a little bit once they figured out thats where he is throwing his fastball all the time and can time it (its why he’s given up tons of line drives).

He’s not gonna be an ace or even a #2 starter, but he could be a solid 3 because stuff is good, not great but good. Command is there but everything needs to sharpen up a little bit, particularly his off-speed stuff.

by Sniderlover on May 19, 2025 3:47 PM EDT reply actions

For a 21 year old, having an xFIP of 4.06 after only pitching 30 IP above A+ seems pretty solid

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by OldProspects on May 20, 2025 12:08 PM EDT reply actions

Hutchison is doing fine

His peripherals aren’t the prettiest, but he’ll get better.
Another few innings in the minors wouldn’t have hurt, but for a pitcher like him- high baseball iq, knows how to pitch, has good command of pitches, but not much physical projectability left, pitching in the minors is not as helpful for him than say the type of pitcher who has plus stuff but can’t command it.
Keep in mind he’s only 21. That’s basically the same age as a college pitcher being drafted this June, and hutch has already shown he can be useful as a back-end starter already.
Personaly I’ve always seen Hutch as a Dan Hudson lite. Okay fb which plays up because of deception, best pitch is change up, and a below avg breaking ball.

by bk11 on May 21, 2025 4:18 AM EDT reply actions