Yu Darvish to be posted Thursday

by Rotofan on Dec 8, 2025 1:49 AM EST

Darvish's agent tweeted about 30 minutes ago Darvish will be posted Thursday. While he is 26 he would qualify as a rookie this year. I think he's the best of the free agent class of pitchers this year, and while he will cost a premium with the posting system, I do expect him to be signed.

On a totally selfish note, I'm thrilled because I picked up Darvish in early-September for my very deep keeper league and as a rookie Darvish can be stashed on my reserve without any cost for the upcoming season.

I know much has been written about the dangers of banking on Japanese pitching imports. There is probably some truth to the notion that it is more difficult here to pitch on 4 days rest. But I also think the discussion has been warped by the very few imports who have come here -- a sample size that holds no statistical value.

From what I have seen of scouting reports and looking at Darvish's numbers, I expect he'll be a top-20 starter in either the A.L. or the N.L with an upside to break in to the top-10. I also expect the Yankees, Rangers or Red Sox to be the leaders in signing him.

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Why Jays?

Everyone is talking about the Jays winning the bid for FDarvish. But we wonder why they would get involved when their system is loaded with high-qulaity young arms, many ready to move up. But even those in A-Ball are very strong. Seems like they could easily pass on this bidding frenzy and spend the money on a 1B bat — say Prince Fielder?

by Hairylady on Dec 8, 2025 6:01 AM EST reply actions

Jays aren't spending big bucks this year

AA said as much. Jays will need a 90-win season this year to get Rogers to loosen the purse strings.

by Rotofan on Dec 8, 2025 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

Ranking?

The 25-year-old right-hander posted an 18-7 record, a 1.44 ERA and a 276/36 K/BB ratio in 232 innings this past season for the Nippon Ham Fighters.

Darvish seems like an other-worldly talent, from both a statistical standpoint and from the scouting reports I have read. If he does ultimately post and is ultimately signed (as those still do remain hurdles), where would be fall among the top 50 pitchers? I would probably slot him as high as 2nd behind Moore or as low as 5th behind Teheran and Miller.

by jaroche6 on Dec 8, 2025 7:37 AM EST reply actions

That seems strong to me

I need to watch that video of his last start, but I think I’d lean towards B+.

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by Jeff Reese on Dec 8, 2025 9:01 AM EST up reply actions

On my list, I would put him second behind Moore

by cookiedabookie on Dec 8, 2025 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

I think a B+ is low

If Japanese ball is somewhere between AA and AAA, the numbers Darvish has put up have been better than anyone this side of Stephen Strasburg.

The scouting reports are outstanding - Darvish may lack the velocity of Verlander but he has above average MLB velocity, great command and far more experience than top minor league prospects.

I can’t see him as less than an A-

by Rotofan on Dec 8, 2025 12:41 PM EST reply actions

Agreed

And he is going to be posted. I think the possible teams are Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox, Nationals, and Marlins. In no particular order. Favorites may be the Rangers but i would not count out the Yankees. I think Nationals are dark horse favorites. Nationals want to make a splash.

by emoofb on Dec 8, 2025 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

I heard Japanese ball is between AAA and Majors not AA and AAA

I think the Red Sox will get him, makes too much sense, Valentine is making a huge push for Darvish. I don’t understand why people say Rangers, if they wouldn’t go more than 75 million on C.J. Wilson they definitely won’t pay Darvish’s posting fee and salary

by Bososx13 on Dec 8, 2025 1:09 PM EST reply actions

Rangers are higher on Darvish than Wilson

Ranger brass were concerned about Wilson’s post-season work; last year he was hammered and this year he was wild.

Darvish has a better skill set now and he’s six years younger. Not sure the Rangers will sign him, of course, but I’m confident they’ll offer more than what they offered Wilson.

by Rotofan on Dec 8, 2025 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

Source?

I haven’t seen it reported anywhere that the Rangers FO was concerned about Wilson’s October.

by nivarsity on Dec 9, 2025 2:18 AM EST up reply actions

Nolan Ryan described Wilson's October performace as erratic

http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/10/rangers-nolan-ryan-cj-wilson-h.html

This was reported elsewhere too.

And the proof is in the pudding: The Angels sign Wilson for at or slightly below market rates and the Rangers showed no interest in matching. They have Darvish in their sights.

by Rotofan on Dec 9, 2025 9:17 PM EST up reply actions

Proof, pudding

that could just be proof that the Rangers aren’t going to spend a lot of money or commit too many years to anyone. There have been reports they’re not anxious to commit $100M to someone unproven in the major leagues like Darvish. They’ve scouted Darvish heavily, if they believe in him enough, they’ll go for it. If they don’t believe he’s a solid bet to be better than Wilson, they won’t bid very high. I think it’s reasonable to think Darvish could put up a few good years, and maybe accumulate 15-20 WAR over the next 5 seasons. I think CJ Wilson puts up 15 WAR in that time, too. Piecing together comments from the Rangers and Wilson, they’d have to offer Darvish nearly twice as much as they offered Wilson (including the posting fee) and I just don’t see it.

The Rangers keep talking about flexibility and wanting to extend some of their current core players. I don’t see them winning the bidding for Darvish right now.

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by t ball on Dec 10, 2025 8:42 AM EST up reply actions

Rangers. $51.7 million bid wins. Darvish negotiations to begin shortly

I think we’’ll both agree their bid demonstrates they like Darvish more than Wilson. I expect Darvish will cost them $60 million to $75 million depending on the number of years, so the total commitment will be $111 million to $126 million.

by Rotofan on Dec 20, 2025 12:41 AM EST up reply actions

Rangers

I can see the Rangers making a play for him as a reaction to the moves the Angels just made. Daniels even went over to Japan to watch one of his starts. Then again, so did AA from Toronto and Darvish would be a killer addition to their rotation.

Honestly, I would trade and minor league SP for Darvish. the lone exception MIGHT be Moore but I would have to think long and hard about him too. Darvish is unlike any other Japanese pitcher that has come over. I understand the hesitancy regarding him but believe Darvish will excel in MLB.

by KismetKid on Dec 8, 2025 3:37 PM EST reply actions

Any team would be happy to take him at a Strasburg price

It’s the prospect of paying >$100 million for a pitcher who has never played college or pro ball in the U.S. that is a bit sobering.

by d_c_guy on Dec 9, 2025 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

Yanks Are Best Bet

Cashman is mindful of harsher luxury tax in 2014. Beauty of signing Darvish is that posting fee doesn’t count toward payroll. Sucks for Darvish (Japanese team gets $ that would otherwise go to him), but great for Yanks.

by HeavyHitter on Dec 9, 2025 5:15 PM EST reply actions