Winter Meetings Trade Discussion Thread

by John Sickels on Dec 6, 2025 2:10 PM EST

I should have put this up a lot sooner, but here you go. Discuss the Winter Meetings, trades, rumors and innuendo.

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Thoughts on Sergio Santos for Nestor Molina?

by 4dizzle on Dec 6, 2025 2:10 PM EST reply actions

Great for both sides...

Even if Molina does eventually get converted back to the bullpen, he should be a shut-down RP. That said, I hope the White Sox stick with him as a SP as long as possible.

Santos is under control until 2016 o 2017 (I’ve seen both listed) so good move for TBJ as well.

by dbreer23 on Dec 6, 2025 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

Surprised the Sox didn't get more back for Santos

given he’s cheap and still has many years of team control.

by cookiedabookie on Dec 6, 2025 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

They must lurv Nestor Molina

Otherwise I agree with you. Great pickup by the Jays.

by Matt0330 on Dec 6, 2025 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, Billy Beane had to be pretty unhappy to see this deal go down.

There’s no way he’s getting a premium return for Andrew Bailey now.

by PissedMick on Dec 6, 2025 11:50 PM EST up reply actions

Santos strikes me as highly combustible, even by reliever standards. Contract extension last year was too cheap to pass up even with concerns, but cashing in on crazy market even more tantalizing. In previous years, Sergio Santos does not net Nestor Molina in a trade.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2025 11:12 PM EST up reply actions

You had Nestor Molina as the Jays #2 Prospect

What do you think of them trading him for Sergio Santos?

I am the Walrus

by yleviticus on Dec 6, 2025 2:15 PM EST reply actions

seems like a good deal for both sides to me

by John Sickels on Dec 6, 2025 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

not surprised that a RP could

yield the #2 prospect in someone’s system… especially one as deep as the Jays system?

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

well keep in mind that I like Molina more than a lot of other people do.

by John Sickels on Dec 6, 2025 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

and hence my point.

how could the #2 rated prospect in a very deep system yield merely a RP?

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

Because

The system is very deep, but is still thin on truly elite prospects - the upper level guys are not elite (except d’Arnaud) and the lower level guys might be, but are still only potential. And, also, many other intelligent observers wouldn’t have Molina as the second best prospect in that system.

A better question should be is a B/B+ prospect fair return for a very good reliever under long-term control at a good price. I think that’s about right.

by A Behemoth on Dec 7, 2025 9:18 AM EST up reply actions

a good and controllable one,

but still just 60 inning pitcher.

it shows the premium that the market is paying for cheap and controllable talent even if it’s just a RP.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

that was all question... ;-)

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

i agree

both teams addressed needs. any thoughts on how this will effect danks and floyd? are they more likely to get traded?

by James Westfall on Dec 6, 2025 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

I think both are likely to get moved, especially given that their trade value drops once the season starts (no compensation if dealt)

Problem is, KW wants to hit a grand slam when a 2 RBI double will suffice. I think the White Sox will come down a bit on their trade demands, and some teams will show increased interest once the top FA names are off the board.

by mrkupe on Dec 6, 2025 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

Biggest trade so far

The Boston Red Sox and ESPN Worldwide Leaders completed the biggest trade of the off season. ESPN is sending Baseball Tonight analyst, Bobby Valentine to the Red Sox in exchange for Manager Tino Francona. Financial terms were not disclosed.

by ttnorm on Dec 6, 2025 2:28 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

there was some report that had the Jays showing

some interest in Daniel Murphy… and the Mets are known to be looking for RPs… any thought that Santos could get wheeled for Murphy? Murphy also cheap and controllable for 4 more years and is every day position player/DH, not RPer.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 2:57 PM EST reply actions

Oh, god no

by Matt0330 on Dec 6, 2025 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

Ummm no

The Jays have been looking for a closer all winter. I doubt if the Jays have any interest in Murphy.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 6, 2025 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

jays acquired a closer cause they need a closer

murphy isn’t close to santos’ value regardless

i think kelly johnson ends up back in TO

by Wheelhouse on Dec 6, 2025 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

how is that?

Murphy hit .320 this year with a 125 OPS+ and can be an everyday 3Bman. How is that not more valuable than a 60 inning RP?

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

because he would be blocked at 3B by Lawrie?

by Matthew Mueller on Dec 6, 2025 7:34 PM EST up reply actions

roger that.

wasn’t sure if they ruled out 2B for Lawrie or not.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 11:19 PM EST up reply actions

are the Red Sox

trying to decide whether to target Madson or put together a deal for Bailey?

trying to figure out what RPs could trickle down to the Mets. I would love Madson but realize it’s a pipe dream. My best hope now is prob Frank Francisco.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 3:03 PM EST reply actions

Mariners in lead for Fielder...

This could be interesting.

by tarheels24 on Dec 6, 2025 4:22 PM EST reply actions

BJ Upton to the Nats?

Wouldn’t Rizzo be stupid to try to give up a lot for someone who might end up getting non-tendered?

by Jaumiusk on Dec 6, 2025 4:41 PM EST reply actions

Upton could get non-tendered?

There is zero chance that happens.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 6, 2025 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

why would they non-tender him?

That’d be, um, a really, really dumb move.

by mrkupe on Dec 6, 2025 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

absolutely zero chance that upton gets non-tendered

dude has TONS of value

by Wheelhouse on Dec 6, 2025 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

SP for Reds

I still think that some package including Alonso goes to Tampa for a SP.

by dbreer23 on Dec 6, 2025 4:45 PM EST reply actions

Alonso + Grandal for David Price

how hangs up first?

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

Rays.

Switch Price with Shields, and I think both teams would agree to it.

by mr. maniac on Dec 6, 2025 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

why?

Price has opted out of his contract and is arb eligible and will get more expensive than Shields maybe as soon as this season. Shields controlled on team friendly deal thru ’14.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

So they're controlled for the same period and Price will get slightly more money?

Price is a significantly better pitcher with more upside, so why wouldn’t he cost more?

by nixa37 on Dec 6, 2025 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

very debatable.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

I think Price

will yield more b/c of perception and 1 more yr of control, but I don’t think he’s better than Shields or at least is pretty close.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by cookiedabookie on Dec 6, 2025 6:26 PM EST up reply actions

Because he's an ace

And the normal rules of linear trade value per win have hardly ever applied to true rotation aces because they can truly take a team over the top in the post-season. Grandal’s good, but Alonso’s never going to be a star and strikes me as more of an above-average regular guy. He’s planted at first, so his bat needs to continue being as good as it was last year, and BABIP isn’t likely to be too kind to him.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2025 11:18 PM EST up reply actions

+1

For Price, need 1-2 more pieces

by cookiedabookie on Dec 6, 2025 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

fine.

I think it’s a go for Tampa. Does Cinci ok that? or does it depend on the other prospect?

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

I think Mesoraco has to be in to get Price

Along with someone like Corcino - high upside arm.

by dbreer23 on Dec 6, 2025 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

Or switch Grandal with Mesoraco

by nixa37 on Dec 6, 2025 5:33 PM EST up reply actions

I agree, Rays hang up....

Even for Shields, if I’m Tampa, I ask for a 3rd piece (low-A guy) but otherwise that’s about what I envision for Shields.

by dbreer23 on Dec 6, 2025 5:16 PM EST up reply actions

Rays would divert to Niemann or Davis

Alonso and/or a catcher gets you one of the above. Price won’t be discussed unless Votto gets in play.

by jjmalden on Dec 6, 2025 8:49 PM EST up reply actions

Wade or Davis don't have a lot of value.

I don’t see the Reds settling for either of those Ps

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2025 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

Wade or Davis?

I know the guy can be a little jekyl and hyde but that is taking it a bit too far.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 7, 2025 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Me neither

Neither would Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis’ parents as a probable matter of fact.

by Matt0330 on Dec 7, 2025 9:51 AM EST up reply actions

I disagree there.

Niemann is around a 2 WAR pitcher over the past few years. Factor in that he is going from the AL East to the NL Central, and that makes him more of a 2-3 WAR pitcher.

Alonso, based on his track record, looks like he could “potentially” be an average 1b. That is what? 2-3 WAR? Factor in the Red’s need for pitching and the risk/uncertainty versus the fewer years and you have a pretty fair trade.

Alonso is getting WAAYYY overhyped. Incredible what a SSS performance can do for you.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

I hate WAR however....

He wasn’t a 2 WAR player. He was a 1.0 WAR and 1.5 WAR player. That is pretty mediocre.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

He has averaged a 1.8 WAR over that past 3 years. I rounded it off to 2, but if you prefer to say 1.8, I'm fine with that.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

The Reds had 1 starter eclipse the 1.8 mark last year.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:38 AM EST up reply actions

I think you're light on Yonder Alonso, but that's fine

Differences of opinion are fun. I don’t think those WAR #s are all that informative (pitchers’ value often seems dubious with that already less than perfect metric to me) & neither figure is anything better than middle of the road in my opinion. I’d be stunned if Cincinnati even considered moving Alonso for either of those characters,

by Matt0330 on Dec 7, 2025 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

I don't tend (well, now at least) to overrate a player based on such a small sample size.

Alonso has been good but not great in the minor leagues. 100 MLB PA isn’t going to do much to change my opinion.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

Average 1B WAR, in 2011, was 2.95 (Fangraphs)

Average falls in between Casey Kotchman and Gaby Sanchez. I think Alonso is at least 1 WAR better than either of them.

by dbreer23 on Dec 7, 2025 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

Rays

In, like, a nanosecond. Maybe two, depending on Friedman’s thumb-to-end-call-button quickness. If it’s a below-average tool, it could lead to some slippage.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2025 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

"depending on Friedman’s thumb-to-end-call-button quickness"

Average human reaction time is .2 seconds…

by dbreer23 on Dec 7, 2025 12:24 AM EST up reply actions

Rockies add another semi young arm Kevin Slowey for PTBL or cash.

Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 6, 2025 6:19 PM EST reply actions

Love that pickup.

We live in a world where Chris Capuano got 2/10, Aaron Harang got 2/12, and Kevin Slowey was picked up for a PTBNL. Chew on that for a while. It tastes…. confusing.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2025 11:19 PM EST up reply actions

One of baseball’s most extreme flyball pitchers is moving to Coors. I think Slowey is a good NL pitcher, but I’d be much more excited if he were moving to a pitcher’s park.

by limozeen on Dec 6, 2025 11:50 PM EST up reply actions

I think there's a Dodger caveat in this somewhere

by Matt0330 on Dec 7, 2025 9:17 AM EST up reply actions

John, who do you see in the minors currently as being most similar to the newest HOFer, Mr. Santo?

Our the best bet to reach that kind of ceiling?

by cookiedabookie on Dec 6, 2025 6:27 PM EST reply actions

*Or

by cookiedabookie on Dec 6, 2025 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

Santo

My friends and I have been talking for years how they wouldn’t put Ron in until a year or two after he died. He always said if he wasn’t elected before he died, he wouldn’t want to be put into the HOF. Pricks like Joe Morgan and Mike Schmidt have kept him out - and it is them and the rest of the Veterans committee that have not voted for him in the past that the family should give a polite “fuck you, shove it up your ass” to.

by slurve on Dec 6, 2025 8:55 PM EST reply actions

Santo was a borderline HOF

I find it hard just to blame Morgan and Schmidt for his previous exclusion. The guy had 15 years on the ballot and never got in so it isn’t like he was a slam dunk HOFer. He was a bubble guy who finally got in and for that Cubs fans should be grateful.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 10:12 AM EST up reply actions

He was only a bubble guy if you think the HOF should be filled with first basemen and outfielders

And there should only be a handful of third basemen. Just as an example, the difference between the 30th best 1B (Mark Grace) and 30th best 3B (Carney Lansford) - according to bWAR (and I know you do not like WAR) - is almost 8 wins. The difference between the 20th best 1B (Will Clark) and 20th best 3B (Ron Cey) is 5.5 wins. And the difference between the 8th best 1B (Rod Carew) and the 8th 3B (Santo) is 13 wins. Unless people think top ten players for a position should not get in, Santo was not a bubble guy, but vastly underrated and overlooked until now.

by cookiedabookie on Dec 7, 2025 10:42 AM EST up reply actions

I definitely don't think that

I’m not saying that he shouldn’t be a HOFer. I am saying just blaming the veterans committee for his omission is not fair.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

a lot of talk around a Royals/Rays trade involving Shields, Soria, Myers, and Colon

This makes me think this has 0% chance of happening because usually Friedman’s moves involve very little public talk. There was a good debate at DRB about this though but I wonder what people on here thought the Rays beat writer said it was

KC Recieves Shields
TB Recieves Myers, Soria, and Colon

by Dbullsfan on Dec 7, 2025 12:53 AM EST reply actions

I really doubt KC does that

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 12:59 AM EST up reply actions

Rays wouldn't do it either.

Why in the world do the Rays need Colon (horribly overrated) or an expensive reliever? Sure Soria may have some value, but he is getting pretty overrated for a guy who will be overpaid unless he returns to elite status, which is very questionable at this point. The Rays don’t target expensive guys nor guys who are overrated because of draft posistion.

Which makes this deal Shields for Myers. The Rays can get more than that.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

I feel like they should be able to get more also

Sometimes things don’t work out the way they sensibly should though & I do feel Wil Myers is a palatable starting point. I really don’t see this for KC at this moment though - do you think these supposed rumors are based in anything better than speculation?

by Matt0330 on Dec 7, 2025 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

It turns out these rumors were denied by both the Royals and Rays.

It makes sense; the trade doesn’t make sense for either team. Colon is going to have more value to the Royals than anyone else while the Rays don’t really want an expensive, even if good, reliever.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that makes sense

Thanks for the info.

by Matt0330 on Dec 7, 2025 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

I agree on your side too

This deal wouldn’t make sense for either squad. What about Gose, Hutchison, B level prospect for Shields? Who is giving too much?

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 9:51 AM EST up reply actions

First of all, I'm going to try to foget that they are in the same division, which would probably kill the trade.

The Rays need to be blown away to trade Shields, because, quite fankly, they can afford him and are in a good posistion to make the playoffs next year.

Anthony Gose got a B grade, Hutchison got a B+ grade, and there would be another B prospect. Gose is interesting for sure. In terms of “fair value”, that should be plenty for Shields.

I think that is pretty close. Maybe a little more from the Jays to blow the Rays away, but that is a good package without any star power player.

Here is a question: Would the Jays do Travis Snider, Gose, and Hutchison for Shields?

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:20 AM EST up reply actions

Nope

No chance the Jays give up that much. Alex A doesn’t let teams pull a fast one on him.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

So Travis Snider is still held in high value?

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

I don't think the Jays value him

But they understand that other teams still do. Alex A isn’t one to sell low on a player.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

If that is the case, I don't think the Rays would target him then.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

Rays need a catcher and a first baseman

So from Jays, D’Arnaud, Cooper, Hutchison, Joel Carreno, plus maybe one more C+ prospect. Probably too much for the Jays, though.

by cookiedabookie on Dec 7, 2025 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

No chance the Jays even consider that.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 5:01 PM EST up reply actions

I thought the word was that KC was refusing to include Myers in any trade thus far

If that trade were to go down, seems fine as long as KC is getting the good version of Shields. A lot of recently spent bonus money tied up in Myers/Colon though, which makes me a bit skeptical that it would happen.

Of course, if KC gets Bad Shields, they’ve burned their top minor league prospect and an excellent closer in a seller’s market for relief pitchers for a mediocre guy taking up a youngster’s rotation slot. That would probably hurt a lot.

by mrkupe on Dec 7, 2025 1:01 AM EST up reply actions

Seller's market for relief pitchers?

Isn’t it a buyers market considering what Santos just went for?

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

Everything else you said I agree with

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

depends on price, I think

Doesn’t seem like there are a whole lot of takers excited to spend big money on Madson or K-Rod, but for guys with lower salaries and/or team control, the market seems very ripe for them.

by mrkupe on Dec 7, 2025 1:13 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed with just about all of that

(to the chagrin of those who overvalue prospects in a vacuum of course)

However, I don’t see this from KC’s standpoint as of December 2011. Do they think that they are on the periphery of contention and that Shields would help push them closer to a playoff appearance? I don’t really see that at all. A move like this seems at least 18 months premature (in an optimistic scenario) to me although I certianly wouldn’t hate it for either side or anything.

by Matt0330 on Dec 7, 2025 9:21 AM EST up reply actions

What bad Shields?

Shields fWAR over the past five years: 4.5, 4.1, 3.7, 2.0, and 4.9. Injuries are not an issue as he nevers goes on the DL and his stuff has gotten much better recently.

Who gives a crap if Colon recieved a nice bonus if he has been an awful hitter ever since turning pro?

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 9:31 AM EST up reply actions

Think he means the '09-'10 seasons...

‘09 wasn’t the best of seasons but still above league average. ’10 was purely luck-driven - his peripherals were quite good.

by dbreer23 on Dec 7, 2025 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

The Shields who had an ERA of 5.18 two years ago and 4.14 three years ago

I like Shields but his inability to keep the ball out of the stands means he has some bad seasons. Even his FIP those 2 seasons were over 4 so it isn’t like it was just bad luck. Regardless, he is a great innings eater who has survived in the AL East so he should net a good return if they choose to deal him. As a Rays fan though it must be frustrating to watch all your good players get dealt when they need a raise.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

A 3.7 WAR is quite good (though 2 is pretty average).

Shields could also get a whole lot better out of the AL East. Just look what Garza did. In fact, pitchers traded away from the Rays have a pretty good track record of success.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:23 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not saying he is bad

But using WAR for pitchers isn’t that great of an idea. FIP tells us a lot more about a pitchers upside in my opinion.

Big Sexy

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

Weird

What I actually posted was “I’m not saying he is bad but using WAR is a pretty weak method to judge a pitcher. I think FIP tells us a lot more in the case of Shields”

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2025 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

Of course FIP isn't going to like Shields as much.

Shields had a nice FIP last year (and an even better xFIP) at 3.42. However, his value really comes in his innings. He pitched 249.1 innings last year. He has pitched 215 or more innings in 4 of the past 5 years. Last year, he had 11 (!) complete games.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2025 10:43 AM EST up reply actions