Prospects in the Andrew Cashner/Anthony Rizzo Trade

by John Sickels on Jan 6, 2026 4:00 PM EST

The San Diego Padres traded first base prospect Anthony Rizzo and right-handed pitcher Zach Cates to the Chicago Cubs this afternoon, in exchange for pitcher Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na.

Let's take a look at the prospects involved.

Zach Cates, RHP: Cates was drafted in the third round in 2010, from Northeast Texas Community College. He is a 6-3, 200 pound right-hander, born December 17, 1989. Although he posted an unattractive 4.73 ERA in the Midwest League in 2011, his FIP was much better at 3.23, with a 111/53 K/BB in 118 innings and just four homers allowed.

Cates works with a 92-96 MPH fastball and a nasty changeup. His curveball needs work and he is still ironing out his mechanics, but I like his potential for growth. With a few tweaks this guy could really take off.I rate him as a Grade C+ prospect in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book.

Kyung-Min Na, OF: Na was signed by the Cubs out of South Korea in 2009. He is a left-handed hitter, listed at 5-11, 170, born December 12, 1991. He played at four levels in 2011 (Arizona Rookie League, Northwest League, Midwest League, Southern League) hitting a combined .268/.358/.312 in 269 at-bats. He stole 20 bases but was caught 10 times.

Na is fast and has a very good glove in the outfield, but has virtually no power. He profiles as a reserve if he makes the majors.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B: The Padres picked up Anthony Rizzo from the Red Sox in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, seeing the young first baseman as Gonzalez's eventual replacement. A 6-2, 220 pound left-handed hitter, he was born August 8th, 1989. He got off to a hot start in Triple-A in 2011, earning a shot at the big league job in June, but was so awful that he was sent back to Triple-A in late July. He hit .331/.404/.652 in 356 at-bats for Triple-A Tucson, but just .181/.282/.242 in 128 major league at-bats, although he did draw 21 walks.

At age 22 he still has time to work out his flaws. Rizzo has excellent power and sound plate discipline, but his swing gets long and major league pitchers found the holes quickly. He's not going to hit .300 outside of the Pacific Coast League, but with some adjustments he should hit .260-.280 at his peak, with 25-30 homers and plenty of walks. Although error-prone at first base, his defense is considered very good due to soft hands, a strong arm, and surprising range.

Rizzo has more risk in his profile than many people realize, and if things go wrong he could turn into Chris Davis. On the other hand, if things go really right, he could develop into Ryan Howard. He will likely fall somewhere in between. Grade B+

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Read More: Adrian Gonzalez (1B - BOS), Andrew Cashner (P - SDP), Anthony Rizzo (1B - CHC), San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs

Comments

Wow ... that was fast!

Thx John!
Good trade for the Cubs … what do you say?

by BurGi on Jan 6, 2026 4:06 PM EST reply actions

Reading John's writeup on Rizzo reminded me who I always comped him to

awhile ago. Completely forgot, but boy, that writeup sounds like Adam LaRoche in the bigs.

by toonsterwu on Jan 6, 2026 4:09 PM EST reply actions

With better defense

That’s a very good comp, IMO.

by RynoRooter on Jan 6, 2026 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

LaRoche's defense

has actually been fairly solid the last few years. I know the UZR numbers are brought down a bit by the -19.7 in his 2nd year. Haven’t checked what the other stats show, though.

by toonsterwu on Jan 6, 2026 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

When Adam LaRoche was 21

he put up a 251/305/361 line in 471 at bats at high A.

by 96mnc on Jan 6, 2026 9:22 PM EST up reply actions

no doubt

that Rizzo has higher draft pedigree and draft potential, but the player John wrote about above, .260-280, 25-30 HR at his peak, plenty of walks, and a solid glove at first - that’s basically been LaRoche from 2006-2010, and he was hurt last year.

by toonsterwu on Jan 6, 2026 10:46 PM EST up reply actions

Wonder what happens with all the money that has left the payroll over the last couple of years?

Rizzo means no Fielder.

Aramis, Pena, Fukudome, Bradley, Marshall, Grabow, DLee and Carlos Silva are all off the payroll.

Are the Cubs transitioning to a team with a mid market payroll going forward or is Ricketts eventually going to reinvest all this money somewhere else?

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico lose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Jan 6, 2026 4:33 PM EST reply actions

My take

I think Ricketts understands that they have one goal - World Series champs. That’s why they hired Epstein/Hoyer. So it looks like he’s letting them make the baseball decisions which right now are dump payroll, open up roster spots, rebuild the farm system, acquire players under team control longer, etc. But there’s no way that they will settle for a mid-market payroll with such weighty expectations. It sounds a little like “the process” of GMDM but at some point the checkbook will be open for the right kind of players.

by odbsol on Jan 6, 2026 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

I sure hope so

I know that this team is heavily leveraged from the purchase. The pessimist in me worries that Joe Ricketts has closed the wallet and told the kids that they were on their own with this team. In which case the 50 million that is gone from the payroll might be debt service payments.

Hope that isn’t the case.

" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico lose a ball in the Sun? "

by aaronb on Jan 6, 2026 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

no way

I can’t imagine that they’re going to be a mid-market team. Theo would not have left Boston if he wasn’t going to have strong resources. But why spend a ton of money now? They’re not competing. I think they’re setting themselves up to have plenty of money to spend in a few years.

by Ben Hall on Jan 6, 2026 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

agree

No way Theo takes the job without free reign over baseball decisions and as much or more payroll flexibility as they’ve had in the past. This deal is about getting value. Fielder is a poor value for a team that is not ready to contend this year or next. If he signs a 7-year deal, especially for an NL team, most of his value is in the 1st 4 years. If Cubs are not contending in the 1st 2, there is no point to buying him. I’m sure Theo gave Ricketts a very detailed 5-year plan as part of the interview process. From what I read, he’s always prepared. That plan seems to be along the lines of what odbsol said above, but I’d that I’m sure Theo already has a shopping list of 2012 & 2013 FAs in hand as well.

by qksilver on Jan 6, 2026 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed. The Cubs could have had a $250 million budget

for 2012 and it wouldn’t have made a difference as poor as the rest of the team was. Get some talent to stock the farm system, evaluate what you have on hand for a year, and slowly build from there. See what you have in Jackson, Rizzo, and Castro. Evaluate how Baez, Szczur, and Vitters develop this year. If the opportunity comes to get good value for Garza and Marmol bring more talent in. It was time for the Cubs to stop band-aiding their lack of depth and to go into full rebuilding mode. Kudos to Theo for doing that.

by 96mnc on Jan 6, 2026 9:30 PM EST up reply actions

Wow, this trade is awful for the Padres

I live in SD but am not a fan of the team. I can’t see how this makes them a better organization.

by 96mnc on Jan 6, 2026 4:44 PM EST reply actions

If Casher pans out as a SP, it's about even, IMO.

Won’t know until 2013, though.

by dbreer23 on Jan 6, 2026 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

Cashner*

by dbreer23 on Jan 6, 2026 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

This has to be the plan

I imagine that the Padres do with Cashner this year what they did with Luebke last year and Stauffer the year before. Start him in the pen, get him some starts at the end of the year, and then if it works out have him in contention for a job as a full time starter going into 2013.

by Drakos on Jan 6, 2026 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

According to Bob Nightengale, the Pads will use him as a reliever.

This seems like a terrible deal for SD, especially when viewed in the context of their Gonzalez and Latos trades.

My degree is worthless

by Godd Till on Jan 6, 2026 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, for 2012, Cashner will be a RP.

But that was the Cubs’ plan, too, to let AC build up some arm strength. That’s why I mentioned 2013 above as the pivotal year in Cashner’s development.

by dbreer23 on Jan 6, 2026 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

So if everything breaks right Cashner becomes Brandon Morrow

Is that the comp you would use?

by 96mnc on Jan 6, 2026 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

Morrow is a pretty good comp

by bdlugz on Jan 6, 2026 9:43 PM EST up reply actions

except his K #s have never approached Morrow's.

In what way is that a good comp?

by Bronzillo on Jan 7, 2026 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

Cashner will without a doubt have a strong K/9.

I’m not as worried about what he’s done in the majors as much as what he will do. I expect if he remains healthy he will consistently remain at or above 9K/9. Not quite Morrow, but the high K, high walk with electric stuff still works well for Cashner.

by bdlugz on Jan 9, 2026 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

it's not a great deal but

if Cashner becomes a plus set up RPer, then that is pretty good value. and it’s starting to sound like the Cubs have an emotional attachment to Rizzo which may exceed his true value. Rizzo is beginning to sound like Carlos Pena or maybe the 2011 Teixeira on the high end, which certainly is fine but it’s not great.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Jan 6, 2026 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

I'd rather have 2011 Tex under team control for 5 years

than a high end RP or #3 SP.

by 96mnc on Jan 6, 2026 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

uh, Rizzo has a bit of a road ahead to get to

the ‘11 Teixeira methinks. Those were highside projects. I’ve heard Chris Davis as low side. Funny thing is that Chris Davis may still have a career yet.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Jan 6, 2026 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

Sure, he does...

but if he’s anything like the 2011 Teixiera for $20m less, then I’ll be extremely pleased.

--------------------------------
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@JamesDaBear

by jameslcrockett on Jan 7, 2026 2:11 AM EST up reply actions

i think he's a few yrs from that.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Jan 7, 2026 8:56 PM EST up reply actions

So?

At Rizzo’s age, Teixiera was a few years from that.

--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field

@JamesDaBear

by jameslcrockett on Jan 8, 2026 5:50 AM EST up reply actions

Cashner

Could be an exceptional pitcher in that park, people need to educate themselves on him more imo.

by High Heater on Jan 6, 2026 5:12 PM EST reply actions

A hard throwing righty with rotator cuff issues

that are significant enough to warrant a move to the pen. Rizzo may end up being Choi 2.0 but I’d rather take my chances with him. So you traded AGonz for Kelly, Cashner, and Reymond Fuentes? After the Alonzo trade I figured they’d move Rizzo or Alonzo for a MI prospect, not a pitcher with a bad rotator cuff.

by 96mnc on Jan 6, 2026 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I don’t think that has anything to do with the concerns over him being better suited (or limited by health) to a reliever role.

by PrincetonCubs on Jan 6, 2026 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

I just feel like

the Padres got ripped on the throw in part of the deal. They should’ve gotten a better second prospect than Na and shouldn’t have given up someone else of potential value.

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by achengy on Jan 7, 2026 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

+1000%

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Jan 7, 2026 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

I am a Cubs fan myself

and I kinda see this as a loss for the Cubs, Cash was expected (and had 1 good outing) to develop into a solid #2/#3 at Wrigley. I think he is entirely capable of doing that, while he got hurt, that can happen to pitchers. He throws hard sits firmly in the mid 90s (93-95). I liked Cash a lot..

by 2883 on Jan 6, 2026 5:30 PM EST reply actions

I do to

but … Cash wasn’t going to be in the rotation this year, so earliest was 2013. He probably would’ve needed to have an innings limit for 2013 as well. That’s just too much time spent waiting when his value could bring in other talent now. And we got a pretty good arm to boot.

by toonsterwu on Jan 6, 2026 5:39 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by dbreer23 on Jan 6, 2026 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

The Cubs were going to use him as a reliever too

He was sent to the AFL to make the transition.

by Kelsdad on Jan 6, 2026 5:38 PM EST reply actions

well, the talk was

that the old guard (who made the AFL decisions, but of course, each team sends 1 starter, and McNutt was that guy) still viewed him as a starter, but that there was no way he could work a manageable number of innings as a starter in 2012, so he would go to the pen, and they would try again in 2013. Today, clearly, it seems that Hoyer/Epstein didn’t like their chances of Cashner becoming a starter down the road.

by toonsterwu on Jan 6, 2026 5:40 PM EST up reply actions

Pads plans

At the moment I agree this looks better for the Cubs, especially getting a decent upside arm in addition to Rizzo, but Cashner has a chance to be special, even if the odds are not as good as 1-2 years ago that he does it as an SP.

My take on the Pads is that they understand that in their park, the guys they can easily develop (and by that I mean build perceived ML value) are high-ceiling pitchers. They’ll acquire many of these guys, keep some, and trade others for ML-ready or already established hitters, which are harder for them to obtain as FAs, and as Rizzo showed, at times harder for them to easily develop in Petco.

by qksilver on Jan 6, 2026 8:34 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Good analysis

Rec’d it. I think that is exactly how they are doing things and, exactly what they did with Latos.

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by casejud on Jan 7, 2026 12:33 AM EST up reply actions

what timing for John!

LOL forgot to mention, can you imagine poor John today? He’s about to post his Cubs prospect list, and a major deal goes down! Good news: he’s got the in-depth end of the Cubs guys fresh in his mind so he can post a deal analysis quickly. Bad news: time to redo the rankings! DOH!

by qksilver on Jan 6, 2026 8:38 PM EST reply actions

He said in a previous post that he won’t re-do the rankings until after all the lists are complete. Then he’ll go back and retrofit lists where trades happened.

by dbreer23 on Jan 6, 2026 11:36 PM EST up reply actions