Merry Christmas, Dodger's Fans

by mssickels on Dec 24, 2025 5:20 PM EST in News

John wanted me to post this list for you, with a request that when you argue, and you will, please keep it civil.

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects for 2008

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Grade A
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Grade A- (I still really like him)
James McDonald, RHP, Grade B+
Chin-Lung Hu, SS, Grade B
Jonathan Meloan, RHP, Grade B
Dewlyn Young, OF, Grade B-
Chris Withrow, RHP, Grade B-
Scott Elbert, LHP, Grade C+ (would rank higher if healthy)
Blake DeWitt, 3B, Grade C+
Andrew Lambo, 1B, Grade C+
Pedro Baez, 3B, Grade C+
Josh Bell, 3B, Grade C+
Ivan DeJesus, SS, Grade C+
James Adkins, LHP, Grade C+
Xavier Paul, OF, Grade C+
Justin Orenduff, RHP, Grade C+
Austin Gallagher, 3B, Grade C (might rank at C+, still thinking)
Jamie Hoffman, OF, Grade C
Jaime Pedroza, SS, Grade C
Ramon Troncoso, RHP, Grade C

There are 16 other players in the book rated Grade C, all of them interchangeable in the lower spots on this list. This system took a hit from major league graduations last year, but they have the ability to recharge quickly and several of these Grade C+/C guys have strong potential at higher levels, though we need to see more information

LaRoche may rank a notch too high at Grade A- but I still really love him.

Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!

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Comments

LaRoche

Both him and Votto got an A-. So John, which one is ranked ahead?

by mlbfan30 on Dec 24, 2025 5:09 PM EST 0 recs

Defensive Value

Wouldn't be the thirdbaseman?

by rifle24 on Dec 24, 2025 6:23 PM EST up 0 recs

Hmm

Maybe it's just me, but they don't seem particularly close. I find it hard to believe Votto is a better prospect than LaRoche.

by marcello on Dec 25, 2025 3:23 AM EST up 0 recs

Elbert

I drafted him in a keeper league last year, it actually physically hurts me to see him as a C+ even though its justified.

On another note, Kershaw has me really excited, I can't wait to see how he develops.

by revans37 on Dec 24, 2025 5:12 PM EST 0 recs

Mcdonald...

I had forgotten about him...he really neeeds to be given a shot on the community list.

by tt68 on Dec 24, 2025 5:14 PM EST 0 recs

A lot of 3rd baseman

by Bravesin07 on Dec 24, 2025 5:27 PM EST 0 recs

my thoughts

Surprisingly, I actually agree with the majority of these rankings.

some comments though:

-I think Kershaw is too high at a straight A. Should be an A-. Being only 19 and with those walk rates should give enough cause for concern to knock him down to an A-.

-Love the aggressive ratings of Baez, Lambo and Withrow. All three for different reasons

Baez- great scouting reports
Lambo- amazing debut numbers
Withrow- He's a Logan White first round pitcher :)

-Hoffman and Trononsco should be replaced by a combination of 2 out of my 3 breakout candidates for next year: Josh Wall, Tim Sexton or Kyle Smit. All pitchers, all different reasons why I think one of these 3 might take a big step forward next year.

Wall: Projectible, improved every year
Sexton: Projectible, great k/bb ratio in limited debut
Smit: Very strong K rates, promoted Aggresively from GCL, which shows strong confidence from organization.

Re: Gallagher

I don't really have a good reading on him. He's a projectible hitter and with his frame, power should definitely be coming. I think the low K rate and decent walk rate shows he has an idea of what he's doing at the plate and he isn't as raw as some scouts believed he was heading into the draft. C is appropriate but I definitely see justifications for bumping him up to C+.

by npurcell on Dec 24, 2025 5:34 PM EST 0 recs

Withrow

Yup. Logan White never misses on a first round pitchers does he? I mean, that great Dodger rotation of just chock full of his draftees, isn't it?

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 25, 2025 1:37 AM EST up 0 recs

response

you already saw my response to this in another thread.

by npurcell on Dec 25, 2025 1:48 AM EST up 0 recs

Yes I Did,

And it's just as lame now as it was then.

You know, I expect to see Madison Bumgarner and TIm Alderson bumped up a grade or two when the Giants turn comes around since Dick Tidrow's track record with first round pitchers is even better than Logan White's.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 25, 2025 1:54 AM EST up 0 recs

so

instead of some smartass comment, why don't you bring something else to the table? Like maybe, an analysis of Tidrow's first round pitchers since he has been in charge of Giants drafting?

by npurcell on Dec 25, 2025 2:07 AM EST up 0 recs

Sorry.....

for the first sentence in my last response. I thought better of it, but you can't edit these after you click "Post."

Prior to 2002, Brian Sabean mainly used first round picks as trade bait. The subsequent careers of those traded pitchers has been a mixed bag, mostly downers. Since 2002, the Giants have drafted Hennessey and Lowry(both have had modest-good success with the Giants), Aardsma and Whitaker(Aardsma was mishandled in development and traded, Whitaker has had multiple injuries. Both will probably end up busts). no first rounders in 2004 or 2005, Tim Lincecum in 2006, Bumgarner and Alderson in 2007. Not a perfect record, but if we're limiting the discussion to first round pitchers, I think it compares very favorably with Logan White's results.

BTW. I think Logan White is a great scouting director for the Dodgers. His overall track record speaks for itself, but he's not perfect and a prospect should never be judege based solely on the fact Logan White or anyone else drafted him.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 25, 2025 12:46 PM EST up 0 recs

Matt Cain!

Don't know why I skipped him. He was in the list when I was planning the response. Anyway, Hennessey and Lowry were from 2001, I believe and Matt Cain was the 2002 draftee. I don't think anyone needs reminding about his ascent to the majors!

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 25, 2025 12:53 PM EST up 0 recs

Logan White is the BEST!!

Are you serious???

by orioole26 on Dec 27, 2025 11:11 AM EST up 0 recs

Logan White's First Round Pitchers

And how many Logan White first round pitchers should have been in the Dodgers' rotation in 2007 to justify his reputation? Elbert was drafted in 2004. Is a HS pitcher SUPPOSED to be in the majors within three years? How about Kershaw? Obviously, if he is so great he should have been in the majors at age 19, right? Honestly, we are talking about a pool of pitchers that consists of exactly TWO guys, Greg Miller (2002) and Chad Billingsley (2003). Thus White is batting .500, an indisputably awesome success rate.

But seriously, it is stupid to be talking about first round pitchers' timetables to make the majors without considering whether they were HS or college draftees, or whether they have had injuries that have set back their timetables. Now if someone wants to say that for all of White's talk about prizing good arm action and sound mechanics in pitchers a good number of his first-round pitchers have gotten injured, fine, that would be a fair point. Miller, Elbert, and Bryan Morris have all had arm operations, only Billingsley made it to the majors without ever having an arm injury in the minors, and we'll see what happens with Kershaw and Withrow. And I won't count Hochevar, not only because he didn't sign with the Dodgers, but because White didn't want Hochevar and DePodesta forced White to pick him.

But isn't there a better standard to measure whether a first round pitcher was a good pick by a scouting director than how fast he makes the majors (something White doesn't give a damn about, otherwise he would be drafting college pitchers all the time), or whether the pitcher missed time in the minors due to injury (young pitchers get hurt almost as a matter of course, we all know that)? What is relevent to the question of White's record is just how good did those pitchers prove themselves to be after they were drafted? Miller dominated Double A at age 18, and by doing so got himself named in the Top 10 of Baseball America's Top 100 list. Elbert also made himself an elite prospect, if not quite Top 10 worthy. Morris flashed a 98 MPH fastball and a hammer curve in short-season ball, and was named the top prospect in the Pioneer League by BA last year. Now you take those three, who all got hurt, and you add Billingsley and Kershaw, and what do you conclude? Obviously, White gets excellent TALENT when he picks a pitcher in the first round, doing it five times in a row, but he DOESN'T get guys guaranteed to stay healthy. But then, what scouting director does pick pitchers who never get hurt, or rarely get hurt? And you can't say that picking mostly HS pitchers instead of college pitchers is the problem behind the injuries. The record of college pitchers taken in the first round who suffered significant injuries not that long after signing is large.

by CanuckDodger on Dec 25, 2025 5:35 AM EST up 0 recs

Results

Not sure the reason, maybe just bad luck, but the Dodgers seem to have had more than their share of problems getting highly touted pitching prospects all the way to the majors. Is it a scouting defenct that misses or ignores injury risk? Is it poor player development, or is it just plain old bad luck? I don't know the answer but the record does not justify saying a particlular player is a good prospect just because Logan White drafted him. That's the kind of thinking I'm objectiing to.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 25, 2025 12:50 PM EST up 0 recs

okay let me do this a different way

Since White has been the Dodgers Scouting Director, these are his first round pitchers

Greg Miller: After one full year, he was ranked as the 8th best prospect entering 2004 by BA.

Chad Billingsley: After one full year, he was ranked as the 19th best prospect entering 2005 by BA.

Scott Elbert: After one full year, he was ranked as the 55th best prospect entering 2006 by BA.

Clayton Kershaw: After a summer debut, he was ranked as the 24th best prospect entering 2007 by BA. After one full season, he will most likely be ranked in the top quarter of BA's top 100 list.

Bryan Morris: After a summer debut, was ranked as the #1 prospect in the Pioneer League.

This is what I'm getting at, the first round pitchers Logan White drafts are heralded in the scouting community and after their first full season, produce the necessary results and show the requisite tools to be highly ranked by scouting pundits.

Even if it disgusts you, there is a correlation there and that is why I made that comment (partly tongue in cheek as well though).

A counter argument can be made about injuries, but that is not what the point of the statement was about anyways.

by npurcell on Dec 25, 2025 8:06 PM EST up 0 recs

One Full Year

Well, let's just vote 'em all into the HOF after one full year!

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 26, 2025 1:00 AM EST up 0 recs

argh

You obviously do not understand the point I am trying to get across. You can choose to respond if you want but for me, this conversation about this subject has ran its course.

by npurcell on Dec 26, 2025 1:20 AM EST up 0 recs

Understand

No, I think I understand your point, but I don't agree with it. What you are saying is that by this time next year, BA and other prospect evaluators will be calling Withrow a highly ranked prospect because that's what happened with several other Logan White draftees. Am I right?

You are also saying that is why he should get a better grade than other prospects with a similar rookie league record and draft position because of the above scenario. Am I still on track?

OK, let's look at the rookie league records of Dodger first round pitching draftees:

Greg Miller: 3-2, 2.37, 38 IP, 13 BB, 37 K.

Scott Elbert: 2-3, 5.26, 49.2 IP, 30 BB, 45 K.

Chad Billingley: 5-4, 2.83, 54.0 IP, 15 BB, 62 K.

Clayton Kershaw: 2-0, 1.95, 37.0 IP, 5 BB, 54 K.

Chris Withrow: 0-0, 5.00, 9 IP, 4 BB, 13 K.

We won't count Hochevar or Morris for obvious reasons.

Now, which one of the pitchers from that list looks different? Elbert had the weakest numbers and he's never overcome the control issues that were first evident way back then. The other 3 had stellar rookie league records with significant IP's giving them pro experience.

Obviously sample size is an issue with Withrow, but he was hittable in his initial pro action.

Here's what BA had to say about him:

"His crisp, compact delivery is picture perfect."

"....feel for pitching rudimentary at this stage of development."

"He won't zoom through the minors, but can become a future #2 or #3 starter. Most likely will start in extended spring training, but should make his way to low class A eventually.

I'm not saying Withrow is a bad prospect. I just don't think he's comparable to prior Dodger first round draftees either in terms of fast-tracking or future ceiling.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 26, 2025 4:07 PM EST up 0 recs

Withrow's ERA

He left the bases loaded during one outing and the reliever let all the runners score. This really inflated his ERA since it's such a small sample size. All in all, he was pretty unhittable in his pro debut.

by silverwidow on Dec 26, 2025 4:26 PM EST up 0 recs

Sample Size

The sample size is really too small to make any kind of judgement on. My main point was that Miller, Elbert, Billingsley and Kershaw all had a full summer of rookie ball experience going into their first full season. Couple that with BA's comments and Withrow doesn't appear to be in the same class as prior Dodger first round pitchers.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 26, 2025 4:48 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Sample Size

If the sample size is too small to make "any kind of judgment," then by the same token you can't say he's not in the class of the previous draft picks. Next year will be a much better indication of what he can or can't do. But, if he continues to flash the 98 MPH heater he showed during the GCL playoffs, things definitely look promising.

by silverwidow on Dec 26, 2025 5:37 PM EST up 0 recs

Sample Size

I agree, Withrow's sample size is too small to make any judgement on. On the other hand, Billingsley and Kershaw both had good sample sizes in rookie ball and they were outstanding. In my mind that gives them a leg up both from a performance and experience standpoint.

As for the 98 MPH, BA mentioned it in their report, but it didn't seem to alter their assessment much. They see him as being very raw, will take his time to develop and has a ceiling of #2 or #3 starter. I don't consider that to be in the same category as Bills or Kershaw after their first summer.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 26, 2025 6:11 PM EST up 0 recs

Response

I really don't get the fascination with rookie ball statistics one way or the other. I personally think that in at least 90 percent of cases, they're totally useless for projecting future success or failure.

Obviously, it becomes even more futile when you're drawing from small sample sizes, like Withrow's whopping 9 IP. But over those 9 innings that undoubtedly changed his life and his prospect star forever, whatever he was, he wasn't "hittable." He gave up 5 hits and struck out 13 guys . . .so in fact, he was actually quite good at being not hittable.

Withrow looks like a pretty darn good prospect right now, but it's not because of those magical 9 innings or because Logan White likes him. He's just a good arm with a high upside.

by mrkupe on Dec 26, 2025 5:54 PM EST up 0 recs

No Problem

I've never said Withrow is a bad prospect. I don't think he is in the same class as Billingsley and Kershaw were/are, but a good prospect nonetheless. As long as you have other reasons for rating him highly other than he is a Logan White draftee, then I respect your opinion.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 26, 2025 6:07 PM EST up 0 recs

One quick thing on Lambo

If he is only limited to 1b then that should be weighted against him. I would like him so much better if he could play a passable outfield.

He might be what Twins fans hoped Chris Parmelee would be (I still like Parmelee think he still will be good).

by npurcell on Dec 24, 2025 5:35 PM EST 0 recs

Mcdonald

Who does he compare to? I still see him as a pretty raw pitcher. What is his ceiling/floor?

by thefordhamflash on Dec 24, 2025 6:47 PM EST 0 recs

Re: McDonald

I've heard comparisons to (Tall) Chris Young.

by silverwidow on Dec 24, 2025 7:04 PM EST up 0 recs

McDonald

I'm not a scout and I've only picked up pieces of info here and there. My memory may not be completely accurate. He's new to pitching, having been an outfielder since he was drafted.

He has good control for someone who is so new to pitching, and his velocity is above average. Last year his K/9 was a hair above 11 and his BB/9 was around 2.5.

We haven't heard too much about him but I don't think that means he's raw in any way. I believe he's closer to L.A. on the depth chart than kershaw, and, depending on his season, may get some starts or bullpen work with the big club when rosters expand.

Ceiling: somewhere around Dan Haren?
Floor: implosion into himself, owner of several successful Wendy's franchises
Productive big leaguer floor: A taller Jason marquis?

I've never tried comps before. Kind of fun, kind of scary.

by jumanjifan01 on Dec 24, 2025 7:07 PM EST up 0 recs

jmcd

actually i believe mcdonald was drafted as a pitcher, converted to outfield to protect his arm after he had some sort of problem (i've never been able to track down what it was, as he was a very obscure prospect indeed at the time), and the converted back before 2006.

i could google this, but have not.

i've seen his breaking ball compared to john lackey's in the sense that it's sort of slurvy and difficult to categorize but nonetheless very good, a present plus pitch. his fastball isn't as good as lackey's, though, i don't think.

between being tall and thin, and only pitching for a couple of years, and having that nameless arm problem and outfield conversion and re-conversion in his past, he has the aura of a guy with a higher-than-average burnout potential. but he's also got a lot going for him - he's clearly doing something right to get all those Ks, nobody's really hit him that hard, and at this point he's pretty close to the majors. as i noted last summer, he was pitching pretty much as well in the california league as he did in AA except for a tendency to get hammered in the really satanic hitter's parks (high desert and lancaster).

by wily mo on Dec 24, 2025 8:01 PM EST up 0 recs

good info

What you said about him being drafted as a pitcher, converting to outfield, and coming back to pitcher rings a bell.

Comparisons to Lackey's breaking pitch are inspiring. Hopefully he'll be able to improve his fastball enough as he puts on muscle.

It was a great season for him, but 2008 will tell us what we really have on our hands.

by jumanjifan01 on Dec 24, 2025 11:58 PM EST up 0 recs

McDonald

I don't think McDonald is a "raw" pitcher, but he is a pitcher that has an unknown ceiling with the possibility of development still.

When I think of raw, I think of an athletic pitcher with electric stuff and no control.

As McDonald's peripherals would indicate, he has a knowledge of what needs to be accomplished on the mound by his piling strikeouts, low bb rates, and excellent k/bb ratio. So in that sense I don't think McDonald is raw.

But, as someone who has only been pitching full time for a couple of years, he is still raw in the physical development stage of his career. At 6'5 190lbs, he is a very tall drink of water on the mound and needs a strong winter workout, weight gaining regiment to develop the physical base needed to last a full major league season.

When I saw him pitch and following him over this past year to go along with his scouting reports, he reminds me of Chris Young of the Padres; another tall pitcher with a deceptive over the top delivery that have 3 various pitches that they can throw for strikes. Like Young, McDonald's fb isn't really anything special in terms of sheer velocity (88-93ish), but unlike Young, I think McDonald still has the chance to gain velocity.

Thats my take, hope it helps.

by npurcell on Dec 24, 2025 7:08 PM EST up 0 recs

McDonald

I got to see him once when he was in hi-A and he was very impressive even though I had never heard of him (it was pretty early last year before he started raising eyebrows). The guy he most reminded me of in both build and throwing motion was Ramon Martinez. His fastball was very crisp and was hitting 92-93 and his slurve had a nice tight break to it. Although his fastball was fairly straight, he has the nice downward plane (like Brad Penny) so that it's not as much of a problem.

He was considered for a call-up late in the season, but when management went to watch him they noticed his velocity was down from where it was earlier in the year so they didn't want to push him. He'll probably start in AA, but if he continues pitching like he did last year, he could overtake Loaiza for the #6 SP slot (or even #5 if Schmidt doesn't recover quickly).

by overkill94 on Dec 24, 2025 9:01 PM EST up 0 recs

that was a good one

Here's mine with Kershaw

Ceiling: Taller Scott Kazmir
Floor: Greg Miller 2007 version
Productive big leaguer floor: Ted Lilly with more velocity.

I like this comparison method, I may use this.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 24, 2025 7:09 PM EST 0 recs

Kershaw

reminds me of CC Sabathia for some reason.

by npurcell on Dec 24, 2025 7:11 PM EST up 0 recs

comparison

I think it's the tilted hat fashion they've got going on.

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/images/2006/06/03/osAWtlna.jpg

http://halftimeadjustments.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/cc1.jpg

by shakyamooni on Dec 24, 2025 8:02 PM EST up 0 recs

Withrow or Beavan?

by ISC on Dec 24, 2025 8:26 PM EST 0 recs

Re

Definitely Beaven for me. Really like that kid.

by albo4lyfe on Dec 25, 2025 2:44 AM EST up 0 recs

presently

Beavan has better present stuff but I think there are some concerns about his delivery.

Withrow is suppose to have excellent arm action and outstanding mechanics with alot of room for projection down the line.

by npurcell on Dec 25, 2025 8:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Steven Johnson MIA? De Jesus should be higher...

Where in the world is Steven Johnson? He had a GREAT Hawaiian Baseball League stint and is only 20.

De Jesus should be Top 10 (his bat is very advanced for his age) and Lambo should be between 11-15 IMO.

by clubbiety on Dec 24, 2025 8:38 PM EST 0 recs

Dejesus

Agreed that he should probably be rated a nudge higher than he is. BA rated him as having the best strike zone discipline in the entire organization, which is pretty high praise, considering that Andy Laroche is no slouch in that department.

by jumanjifan01 on Dec 24, 2025 11:53 PM EST up 0 recs

couple questions...

first, john, thanks for taking part of christmas eve to post your dodger list. i've been logging in daily in anticaption. very cool. second, wanna speculate where morrow will be on this list by year's end? finally, pedroza sure lit up his league last year. why so low?
thanks and merry christmas!

by mouch on Dec 24, 2025 10:12 PM EST 0 recs

Pedroza

I'm assuming the fact that he was a 20-year-old in rookie ball and had a sub-par K:BB is what kept him at a C. Plus, he was a ninth rounder so he doesn't have a ton of hype behind him. I'm sure if he puts up even 80% of the production he did in rookie ball while in A+ that he'll probably be a top-10 Dodger prospect.

by overkill94 on Dec 24, 2025 10:40 PM EST up 0 recs

Morrow...

Who is Morrow?

by npurcell on Dec 25, 2025 12:30 AM EST up 0 recs

BM = BM

Gotta assume he means Morris. I've made this same mistake before, but caught myself, don't know why I do it.

Why am I posting on a minor league baseball website this time a night on Christmas Eve?

by jumanjifan01 on Dec 25, 2025 12:45 AM EST up 0 recs

i dunno about you

but I'm just killing time until I catch Santa.

by npurcell on Dec 25, 2025 12:55 AM EST up 0 recs

Looks like...

Dodgers fans get an extra apostrophe for Christmas

by deltabourne on Dec 25, 2025 1:13 AM EST 0 recs

title of the diary refers to

Louis "Lou" Dodger, the 7 foot tall, 340 pound, cigar maker who handed out free stogies to fans above the age of 13 at all Brooklyn Bridegrooms home games.

Coincidentally, most of Dodger's remaining fans are also Dodger fans

by jumanjifan01 on Dec 25, 2025 2:18 AM EST up 0 recs

Chin-Lung Hu

I know John has become a bit thin-skinned about people complaining about grades, and he doesn't seem to want people comparing player grades to grades he gave players in other organizations, but obviously if he is putting his opinion on here, in a public forum, he can't believe his opinion won't ever be disagreed with and argued against.

I am not going to ask WHY John gave SS Jed Lowrie a grade of A- while SS Chin-Lung Hu gets only a B. Quite simply, Lowrie walks a lot (.298/.393/.503 between Double A and Triple A in 2007, at age 23), and Hu walks very little (.325/.364/.507 between Double A and Triple A in 2007, at age 23). Walks are very important to John. I know it, and I certainly am not saying they are UNimportant, but I believe John over-emphasizes them. Lowrie has a big advantage over Hu in patience at the plate, and it is okay to let their respective grades include that consideration. But what about other considerations? Does Hu not have a big advantage over Lowrie in another area, such that Hu's deficiency in plate discipline should be cancelled out by what Hu has going for him over Lowrie? I think Hu does have that, and it is in the area of shortstop defense. Hu is considered the best defensive SS in the minors by some scouts, and those who disagree acknowledge he is among the best. What about Lowrie? Some scouts are certain Lowrie CAN'T stay at SS and has to move to 2B, others think he can at least manage to get by at SS in the majors, and some think he is too ill-suited to play either SS or 2B in the majors regularly and will end up a utility infielder. I submit that Hu's defensive superiority over Lowrie at a premium defensive position is so large that it definitely cancels out Lowrie's advantage of a better walk rate. Now I am not going to say that Hu should be an A-, but I'm quite sure Lowrie shouldn't be that either. I'd make both of them B+, assuming that Lowrie can at least be a second baseman.

I am reminded, writing the above, of two years ago. John gave Conor Jackson an A-, and he gave James Loney a C+. I argued that that disparity in grades was outright wrong, and went on at length explaining the reasons why. I said Jackson and Loney should both be B+. My comments caused a big hue and cry, with people hurling insult after insult at me. Two years later, people can see what Conor Jackson has done in the majors, and they can see what James Loney has done in the majors. So we'll see if people are as quick, this time around, to call me a "Dodger homer" for saying a Dodger prospect and a prospect from another organization should have the same grade.

by CanuckDodger on Dec 25, 2025 6:19 AM EST 0 recs

While I do agree with your conclusion...

I disagree with Hu being anywhere near Lowrie offensively. Hu's 2007 AA numbers are largely the result of his fluky babip (360), his LD%, which about 15% below league average, would mean that his BA should be much closer to 280 then 330, which would put his OBP in the 320/330 range thus knocking him out of any leadoff potential. He's still a very good prospect because of the defense, but he just doesn't have the offensive profile that Lowrie does, they are really very different prospects (polar opposites at the same position really.

The reason why I agree with your conclusion is that Hu is definately going to be a plus defender at ss, so if he gives you anything offensively, then you are talking about a very good player, and it seems he's got a decent amount of power. Lowrie is definately going to hit, but if he has to move to 2B, then his value takes a big hit. I can see if someone truly believes in his defense how they would rate Lowrie that much higher than Hu though.

by jspearlj1 on Dec 25, 2025 8:09 AM EST up 0 recs

Screwed up

I was looking at cumulative OBP for Hu and not his AA numbers so his OBP in AA after a BABIP correction would be around 330-340, a little more acceptable as a top of the order guy.

by jspearlj1 on Dec 25, 2025 8:12 AM EST up 0 recs

It's tough

to rate some Dodgers hitters because of the hitter's parks they go thru sometimes. I'm also have a really tough time with Hu, same as I did with Kemp, DeWitt, and Guzman. Maybe John adds a dose of skepticism to some Dodger hitters because of this, too.

by siddfynch on Dec 25, 2025 10:19 AM EST up 0 recs

Hitter's Parks?

I think only two of the Dodgers' home parks in the minors are hitter's parks, out of six affiliates: Las Vegas and Ogden. They no longer play at Vero Beach's Holman Field, and even though that is a hitter's park, the FSL in general is a pitcher's league. The move to the California League is strange, because now the Dodgers' home park is a pitcher's park in a hitter's league. Anyway, look at Hu's number's this year in Jacksonville, a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league, so it is not like he started hitting only when he reached Vegas.

Does John have trouble getting a good feel for with Dodger hitting prospects? For years, since before the existence of this site, going back to John's ESPN days, my sense has been that John does not have a great feel for Dodger prospects in general. Let me make it VERY clear that I am NOT saying he has a bias against the Dodgers. I just think that he is a sabermetrics guy who is more comfortable with farm systems built on slightly older, "polished" players as opposed to farm systems like that of the Dodgers that are built on a foundation of tools analysis, rather than statistical analysis, and projectability. If you want to see a lot of pitchers who walk hardly anybody and hitters who draw a lot of walks, the Dodgers farm is not for you, yet obsessing on walks can dispose people to underestimate the positive qualities that Dodger prospects offer.

by CanuckDodger on Dec 25, 2025 11:19 AM EST up 0 recs

I stand corrected

Though isn't their park in the Sally League also a hitter's park?

by siddfynch on Dec 25, 2025 11:32 AM EST up 0 recs

Low A Park

Their park in the Sally League was actually a pitcher's park, but the Dodgers moved their low A affiliation to the Midwest League before the 2007 season, and their home park was brand new, so we don't know the park factor yet, but the Midwest League is a pitcher's league.

by CanuckDodger on Dec 25, 2025 11:43 AM EST up 0 recs

Thanks

I thought the Columbus park was a hitter's park in a pitcher's league, but I stand corrected.

by siddfynch on Dec 25, 2025 12:41 PM EST up 0 recs

I remember this debate

As I recall, there was another prospect with basically the exact same stats as Loney who hot a higher grade. I can't remember his name right now, but something is telling me he was from the Astros org.

Anyway, while I don't agree with a lot of the grades, a part of prospect analysis is based on gut, which inherently makes it both human and flawed at times. I don't necessarily think Hu is too low as much as Lowrie is a bit overrated and definitely too high.

I will try to find it and post the link as the old Loney discussion was a good one.

by count sutton on Dec 25, 2025 2:48 PM EST up 0 recs

curious

On September 23rd, John ranked Jed Lowrie #72 on his top 100 and listed Chin Lung Hu #26.

Lowrie got an "A-" recently on his Red Sox top prospect list (and he had a lousy AFL showing).

Now, Chin Lung Hu gets a "B"

So # 72 gets an A minus while #26 gets a B?

just curious why...thanks

by LipstickOnDipstick on Dec 25, 2025 7:07 AM EST 0 recs

Ratings of Lowrie vs Hu

one word guys: Preliminary.

I enjoy people bringing up any inconsistencies among prospect grades, and I'm sure John does too. But jeez,be easy about it - it's a free site, and John is putting his PRELIMINARY opinions out here by OUR request. Some of you guys get so upset about the grades you'd think he was sending 'em to prison with the decision.

Ease up fellas, it takes some time to adjust all the grades. This is a part of that process - embrace it, don't whine.

by siddfynch on Dec 25, 2025 10:16 AM EST 0 recs

+ bajillion

Indeed.

by aCone419 on Dec 25, 2025 11:36 AM EST up 0 recs

Grades

The grades themselves aren't important. John has posted an explanation of his grading system and re-posted it, but nobody has a problem with his grading system. What gets people annoyed at seeing certain player grades is how those grades compare to better or worse grades John has given other players who seem to be of about equal merit. So, yes, it is the "inconsistency."

by CanuckDodger on Dec 25, 2025 11:37 AM EST up 0 recs

Annoyed

I guess I just don't get the annoyance. It seems like some people are taking the grades a bit too personally.

by aCone419 on Dec 25, 2025 1:13 PM EST up 0 recs

Honestly

I think people get to worked up when their favorite players are not listed higher than a guy on a team they hate. Wah wah Austin Jackson this and that... Jed Lowrie is over rated... Geez.
Johns 2007 Prospect Book has that Hu guy at a B. And he says "I like him quite a bit..." He does mention some doubt about his power. But he controls the strike zone reasonably well. Also says he could challenge for multiple gold gloves at SS if given the chance to play full time.
So all in all, I think a good review.

by Maxima231 on Dec 26, 2025 8:47 PM EST up 0 recs

I don't see a problem with it

Getting annoyed can spark good debate. It would get boring if everyone just posted "I agree" with everything John posts. If you think Canuck is wrong, then formulate an argument to state why he is wrong instead of just saying that people shouldn't get annoyed by his grades.

I think Canuck always has well thought out arguments and I enjoy reading them.

by count sutton on Dec 27, 2025 6:19 PM EST up 0 recs

Kershaw

I am just curious as to how many of you have actually watched these guys play. I have seen most of them on multiple occasions. While I can't disagree much with John's ratings, I do want to put in my 2 cents worth on Kershaw.

I live in Indianapolis and go to Dodgertown each year (I'll be there for the last game this year)and catch as many Dodger games as I can in the surrounding areas (Milwaukee, ChiTown, Cincy, St. Louis, etc.). I have a blog at www.ladodgertalk.com. I also had the pleasure of seeing Kershaw in Spring Training as well as the Great Lakes Loons games in Ft. Wayne, IN, South Bernd, IN and Dayton, OH.

While I obviously consider stats, I also believe that a keen eye for talent is more important. It's easy to use stats to measure and predict performance, however if today's statistical analysis had existed in the late 50's and early 60's, I doubt that Sandy Koufax would have been on anyones TOP 150! Talent, character and heart are hard to measure statistically.

I have seen Clayton Kershaw (I sat next to a Cubs Scout at a Beloit, WI game and he said it took him all of 4 pitches to realize this guy is "special."). I have watched Clayton from as close as anyone can get to the field and I am telling you that this guy is closer to Koufax than anyone I have seen in a long time, except for the fact that he has decent (not great) control. His pitches are filthy and several scouts had him at 99-101 MPH when I was there (yes, guns are different). Barring injury, he will be the best pitcher in the NL. I prayed that he wouldn't be traded for Santana, because he may be better than Santana.

Elbert has great stuff, but his delivery could cause arm problems. Kershaw has a smooth and uncomplicated delivery. I think Elbert's future is in the pen (closer?).

Bottom Line: I expect Kershaw to be in the Dodgers' rotation before the end of 2008!

Once a Bum... Always a Dodger!

by mountainmover on Dec 25, 2025 1:05 PM EST 0 recs

Kershaw

I don 't think anyone questions that Kershaw has great stuff. Didn't BA list him as the top HS player going into the 2006 draft? The evidence is overwhelming, he has great stuff. Also agreed that with a normal development curve and barring injury, he's going to be great. He is going to have to get a better handle in those bad boys before he's ready to pitch in the majors. Not saying he won't, but that's his challenge coming into 2008.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 25, 2025 2:50 PM EST up 0 recs

Wow

If Kershaw is in the Dodger's rotation before the end of 2008 he will most likely be on the DL for most of 2009.

Be careful what you wish for.

by alskor on Dec 26, 2025 1:27 PM EST up 0 recs

you are basis this statement on what?

gut feeling or some sort of fact

by count sutton on Dec 26, 2025 5:42 PM EST up 0 recs

Kershaw

mountainmover, I agree. I saw Kershaw pitch twice this past season at Kane County from the first row behind home plate and both times he basically overmatched the hitters. No one could keep a ball fair for the first four innings.

by JakeFree on Dec 27, 2025 2:46 PM EST up 0 recs

Meloan

whats the general consensus on him? Probable 7th inning RP, or some basic mop-up/middle relief? Any potential for a set up or closer role?

Mulder: Babe Ruth was an alien? Arthur Dales: sure; all the great ones were aliens.

by dew on Dec 25, 2025 4:12 PM EST 0 recs

Pat Neshek

is my comp for him initially. Both in terms of production and usage.

by siddfynch on Dec 25, 2025 5:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Meloan

For this year only, it's possible he'll break camp as a reliever at which point he'd be more of a 6th inning guy since he has Proctor, Broxton, and Saito ahead of him. If he can gain Torre's confidence, he could be thrust into the setup role as the co-7th inning guy. His long-term outlook has him as either a dominant set-up guy or a closer, but he'll have to wait a little while for that to happen in the Dodgers' organization.

The other wrinkle is that management is kicking around the idea of having him go back to starting in the minors. While he had a lot of success with it in college, his delivery makes it seem unlikely that he would stay healthy in that role as well as stamina problems. He does have the pitch repertoire to pull it off, but I think he'd have to make some mechanical adjustments to truly thrive.

by overkill94 on Dec 25, 2025 5:29 PM EST up 0 recs

Meloan

I think he could be an excellent set up man for a contending major league team. His fastball is in the "plus plus" which is needed by most teams to be crowned as a closer or future closer.

With the way the bullpen is looking for the 2008 landscape, the Dodgers are seriously thinking about putting him back into a starter's role and let him develop next season in the minors as a Starting Pitcher.

by npurcell on Dec 25, 2025 8:09 PM EST up 0 recs

crap

correction:

His fastball is NOT in the plus plus range.

by npurcell on Dec 25, 2025 8:10 PM EST up 0 recs

Torre Effect

I'd be worried about Meloan, especially if he gains Torre's confidence. His career could end up being a short one, as Joe will overwork him horribly, probably blow out his arm, and most likely destroy his career. (See Nelson, Jeff; Gordon, Tom; Proctor, Scott; Stanton, Mike; Mendoza, Ramiro; etc).

by robertgold on Dec 26, 2025 12:02 PM EST up 0 recs

another one

That Mariano Rivera fella had a horrible career as well.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 26, 2025 7:43 PM EST up 0 recs

Response

One would assume that the way he would gain Torre's confidence is through pitching well.

Of course, if he doesn't pitch well, he probably won't have a long career either . . .

So basically, you're not too optimistic about Meloan in any case, are you?

by mrkupe on Dec 26, 2025 8:05 PM EST up 0 recs

i think he is refering to Joe

using his favorite RP to often on back to back days and multiple innings. And you will notice he babies Mariano. So dont bring him in to the discussion. He pitched more than 3 outs in a game 16 times in 67 games. And only 3 times in those 16 appearances of 4 or more outs did he throw more than 22 pitches.
Joe falls in love with certain RP, and drives them till they drop. And then lets Mariano close it out.

by Maxima231 on Dec 26, 2025 8:54 PM EST up 0 recs

really?

Rivera has had a minimum of 61 appearances every year for the past 12 years with the exception of 1998 when he had 54 appearances and 2002 when he had 45 appearances. So what if it is only 1 inning at a time. Don't tell me "don't bring him into the discussion." I am sure that Mariano has pitched often on back to back days.
Torre may be tough on a bullpen, but you can't say that Meloan's career will be awful because Torre is his coach. I guess that is like saying Cueto and Homer's careers are ruined already because they have Dusty as their manager.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Dec 26, 2025 11:22 PM EST up 0 recs

Rivera Vs. Other Relievers

Mariano Rivera has never had more than 74 appearances or pitched more than 80.7 innings since he became a closer. Counting '96 isn't indicative of how he has been used for the majority of Torre's tenure in NY, as he was a setup man and was obviously abused that season (over 100 IP).

However, here are other relief pitchers during Torre's tenure in individual seasons, all of which exceed 74 appearances and 80.7 innings:

2002 - Steve Karsay - 78 G, 88.3 IP.
2004 - Paul Quantrill - 86 G, 95.3 IP & Tom Gordon - 80 G; 89.7 IP.
2006 - Scott Proctor - 83 G, 102.3 IP.

How is that not abuse of a reliever? He obviously treated Rivera differently, saving him for the 9th inning in most games, and only had him go more than one inning in rare occasions.

Also keep in mind how each of those relievers all fell off the table within one or two years of these excessive workloads. Karsay was done immediately - missed the next year with an injury and never pitched effectively again, Quantrill the next season, Gordon had one more effective year, followed by 2 injury plagued seasons, and Proctor was dumped the following season.

Since he has lost the deep pen he had at the beginning of his Yankee tenure, Torre has become a manager who "trusts" one or two relievers and then works them until their arm falls off. Then he gets a new one and does the same.

by robertgold on Dec 27, 2025 10:46 AM EST up 0 recs

I disagree

You just simply havent been watching the Yankees.
Torre kills his MR and then babies Rivera.
The guy before me put it in writing. Its right there for you.
Rivera is babied, while guys like Procter, Gordon, Karsay and Quantrill were run out there for big pitch counts and lots of innings.
To say Rivera isnt babied means you either, A dont watch the games, B are just uninformed, or C just want to be right for the sake of being right.
And yes, I am not as high on Bailey and Cueto now that Dusty is there. He runs up big pitch counts on his starters. Thats a fact. Maybe that doesnt always lead to injury. But all reasonable baseball people will tell you its not good to treat your young potential aces like that. Your playing wqith fire if you let 22 year old arms throw 125 + pitches on back to back starts, or things like that.
Its a shame you cant see that. The rest of us can.

by Maxima231 on Dec 27, 2025 4:38 PM EST up 0 recs

Savoy. The more I read your post...

the more annoyed I get. Closers pitch on back to back days all the time. But Rivera hardly ever throws alot of pitches on the days he goes more than 3 outs. I think 3 times in 16 4 out or more appearances he threw more than 22 pitches.
I have seen several of your posts. And your confrontational attitude is sort of pathetic. And quoting a great movie at the end really adds to the arrogance.

by Maxima231 on Dec 27, 2025 4:41 PM EST up 0 recs

What is the upside of Austin Gallagher?

I know he's a big kid who had a decent BB/K this year.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 25, 2025 6:28 PM EST 0 recs

too early

I think its too early to tell because it depends on a few factors.

Is first base inevitable in his future? Can he stay at 3b or even play the outfield?
Will his size translate into actual game power?
For such a big guy, is his decent k rate sustainable as he moves up through the minors? Usually guys that big have holes in their swing because they have a larger strike zone to cover.

by npurcell on Dec 25, 2025 6:51 PM EST up 0 recs

good points

Maybe he could be something similar to Adam Dunn.

by Bravesin07 on Dec 25, 2025 7:01 PM EST up 0 recs

MD

I would be scared for my life if someone with DrB's personality was my medical doctor.

by I Love Oakland As on Dec 26, 2025 10:27 AM EST 0 recs

Personal

I won't respond to attacks on my professional reputation. I will say that if you met me in person, we talked some baseball, maybe went to a Cal League game together, I think we'd be friends.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 26, 2025 4:51 PM EST up 0 recs

I was wondering

how one would reply to this. nicely done.

by siddfynch on Dec 26, 2025 6:29 PM EST up 0 recs

Hu

A B+ to me. While he doesn't draw walks at a good rate (only 32 in 517 AB), he hit 325/364/507 with 60 XBH and only 51 K's at AA/AAA at age 23. He's an athletic player, and his plus defense at a premium position is extremely valuable. Not that a B is a bad grade, but I'm surprised at the lack of love for him here in comparison to other prospects.

Yes, his lack of walks bothers me. But, if his power is for real, then that's really the only weakness in his game, plus it's somewhat mitigated by his excellent contact skills.

by jc3 on Dec 26, 2025 10:52 AM EST 0 recs

HU..

How many Abs of his year were in Las Vegas. Isnt that a hitters park? I am just asking. I think it is a hitters park, but if he had like 100 Abs there, it wouldnt mess up his 500 Abs or so to much. But there nice numbers. And if he did that or close to it for the Dodgers, I think Furcal would be out of a job quick.

by Maxima231 on Dec 26, 2025 8:57 PM EST up 0 recs

hoo

he split the year about 60/40 between jacksonville and vegas, and his numbers were actually a bit better in jacksonville, which as you know is a lower level but a considerably tougher hitting environment. maybe it cancels out, who knows.

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=6864

by wily mo on Dec 26, 2025 10:11 PM EST up 0 recs

Hu

also hit 2 HR in 29 AB in his first taste of the majors at the end of the season. So you know he can.

by jumanjifan01 on Dec 27, 2025 1:26 AM EST up 0 recs

nice

First list I've completely agreed with so far. Kershaw is the best pitching prospect in the game.

by illegalblues on Dec 26, 2025 1:48 PM EST 0 recs

Well...

whether he is or not, he certainly isnt the first to get an "A" if that's what youre basing it on...

by alskor on Dec 26, 2025 2:16 PM EST up 0 recs

I have no qualms with any of the grades

B instead of a B+ for McDonald..

Maybe consider going a B+ for Hu..

That said, minor disagreements are what make this fun.. we all agree they're good, just how good is the issue. Thanks for the list.

by cubsfan2883 on Dec 26, 2025 9:48 PM EST 0 recs

WOW, WTF?

Does John really think that Scott Elbert is a C+. On my top 100 prospects list that I'm typing up, he's the 6th top prospect at a rating of A+.

Here would be my dodger list (top 5)

1. Scott Elbert
2.Clayton Kershaw

Chin-Lung-Hu
Andy LaLoche
Engel Beltre ( WTF?! not on John list!!!!??)

by Sabean2009 on Dec 26, 2025 11:36 PM EST 0 recs

i dont get it

eom.

by npurcell on Dec 26, 2025 11:47 PM EST up 0 recs

Did you know that Elbert

was injured in 2007?

by siddfynch on Dec 27, 2025 12:41 AM EST up 0 recs

hey

you forgot wojner

by wily mo on Dec 27, 2025 1:42 AM EST up 0 recs

Sorry, Beltre is a Ranger, sorry

My misake, sorry.

by Sabean2009 on Dec 26, 2025 11:43 PM EST 0 recs

Kuroda?

I forget, does John not grade Japanese imports?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Dec 27, 2025 11:32 AM EST 0 recs

Need some help-Minor League History/Records

Sorry for posting this here, but i could not find a "contact" link for this blog.
My father died 9 years ago, and he played Minor League Baseball in the 60's. I do not have any information or records about what team he played for and what year, etc., and i do not have contact with anyone in his family who would know this information. i estimate that he played sometime around 1962-1963 and it is possible that there may have been a team called the Beetles??? He lived in Chicago so the team would have most likely been in this surrounding area. I am wondering if you (blogowner) or any other readers may be able to direct me to a site or an organization that may be able to help me find out what team he played for and perhaps find further info. Thank you so much for reading this and any responses.
-Genevieve

by haikupunchout on Dec 27, 2025 9:25 PM EST 0 recs