New York Mets 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2025 10:00 PM EDT
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I am reviewing my PRE-SEASON list of Top 20 prospects for 2011 for each organization, continuing today with the New York Mets. This list was originally published October 29, 2025. We will look at the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday, the Houston Astros on Wednesday, the Chicago White Sox on Thursday, the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday, and the Cleveland Indians to finish things off Saturday.
This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST. THESE ARE NOT NEW GRADES
The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Wilmer Flores, SS, Grade B+: Hitting .275/.314/.392 with nine homers, 23 walks, 58 strikeouts in 451 at-bats for High-A St. Lucie. He just turned 20 this month. I'm still not sure what the Mets have here but given his age I don't want to downgrade him too aggressively.
2) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B: Tommy John surgery.
3) Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade B: 2.37 ERA with 92/24 K/BB in 76 innings for St. Lucie, then 4.99 ERA with 48/11 K/BB in 40 innings for Double-A Binghamton, 44 hits, 1.62 GO/AO. The ERA in Double-A is misleading and overall he's having a very strong debut.
4) Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B, Grade B-: Hitting .219/.270/.355 with 13 homers, 29 walks, 96 strikeouts in 439 at-bats for Low-A Savannah, 39 errors at third base. Very raw on both sides of the ball, still just 19.
5) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B-: .260/.329/.417 with 18 walks, 60 strikeouts in 223 at-bats for Triple-A Buffalo, .227/.261/.455 in 22 at-bats for the Mets. Still just 22, but has made little progress and at this point I think a change of scenery would be beneficial.
6) Cory Vaughn, OF, Grade B-: .286/.405/.408 with 36 walks, 64 strikeouts in 245 at-bats for Savannah, then .239/.345/.387 with 19 walks and 36 strikeouts in 142 at-bats for St. Lucie. Power somewhat disappointing this year, drawing some walks, tools are still here.
7) Juan Urbina, LHP, Grade B-: 6.69 ERA with 36/16 K/BB in 40 innings, 53 hits for Kingsport in the Appalachian League. I felt he was capable of better but he is only 18 and still has time.
8) Reese Havens, 2B, Grade C+: Hitting .294/.377/.431 with 20 walks, 43 strikeouts in 153 at-bats for Binghamton. One again, it is all a matter of health for Havens.
9) Lucas Duda, OF-1B, Grade C+: .302/.414/.597 in 129 at-bats for Buffalo, .276/.347/.448 with 18 walks, 30 strikeouts in 174 at-bats for the Mets. I think his major league performance is a genuine expression of his talent level.
10) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade C+: .298/.403/.505 with 32 walks, 59 strikeouts in 188 at-bats for Buffalo before injuring his left shoulder.
11) Zach Lutz, 3B, Grade C+: .304/.389/.500 with 19 walks, 47 strikeouts in 158 at-bats for Buffalo, missing time with a hamstring injury, finger injury, and concussion.
12) Cesar Puello, OF, Grade C+: I got a lot of flak for rating him this low. Hitting .250/.306/.389 with 17 walks, 98 strikeouts in 404 at-bats for St. Lucie, 15 steals. On-base skills inadequate for a leadoff man.
13) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade C+: 1.49 ERA with 36/8 K/BB in 36 innings for St. Lucie, 21 hits. 3.78 ERA with 77/27 K/BB in 67 innings for Binghamton, 65 hits. I'm impressed with the improvement in his command, and he's always had the stuff. Stock up.
14) Armando Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+: 3.75 ERA with 66/24 K/BB in 60 innings for St. Lucie, 46 hits. Few complaints here, Double-A will show us if his stuff is good enough.
15) Sean Ratliff, OF, Grade C+: Hit in the face with a foul ball in spring training.
16) Albert Cordero, C, Grade C+: Hitting .286/.318/.402 with 11 walks, 54 strikeouts in 311 at-bats for Savannah. Has caught 42% of runners, but very high passed ball and error rates.
17) Matt Den Dekker, OF, Grade C+: .296/.362/.494 with 24 walks, 65 strikeouts in 267 at-bats for St. Lucie, .234/.318/.422 with 20 walks, 65 strikeouts in 192 at-bats for Binghamton. 21 steals overall. Strikeout rate is much too high right now.
18) Darrell Ceciliani, OF, Grade C+ I also got crap for rating this guy fairly low. Hitting .249/.334/.343 with 38 walks, 81 strikeouts in 350 at-bats for Savannah. 17 steals.
19) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+ Hitting .249/.316/.349 with 37 walks, 76 strikeouts in 421 at-bats for St. Lucie. 12 steals. Gradually improving defense and still just 20.
20) Mark Cohoon, LHP, Grade C+: 3.81 ERA with 44/17 K/BB in 52 innings for Binghamton, 6.49 ERA with 40/24 K/BB and 87 hits in 68 innings for Buffalo. Finesse game not working against Triple-A hitters.
21) Dillon Gee, RHP, Grade C: 4.07 ERA for the Mets with a 77/47 K/BB in 117 innings, 97 hits. Eating innings effectively at the major league level.
Flores remains an enigma and there are some unfortunate injuries, but if I were a Mets fan, I would be very pleased with the development of Harvey and Familia in particular. Duda and Gee have contributed well to the major league club, and a healthy Nieuwenhuis and Havens could do the same next year
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Zach Wheeler
Where would he rank in the system?
I am beginning to lose patience
With my personal relations.
They are not deep
And they are not cheap.
W.H. Auden
by jimduquettesucked on Aug 15, 2025 10:09 PM EDT reply actions
Wheeler
I have him #2 behind Harvey but the argument can be made for Familia over him too.
by Metfan on Aug 15, 2025 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Cordero
He’s been on fire in the second half, hitting .353/.387/.506. Also a 4/37 BB/K ratio in the first half to a 7/17 ratio now.
If he can improve his defense he’s a nice sleeper, he’s already the Mets best catching prospect by far.
by Metfan on Aug 15, 2025 10:20 PM EDT reply actions
Thoughts on Akeem Morris?
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
by garik16 on Aug 15, 2025 10:30 PM EDT reply actions
Errr I mean Akeel Morris
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
by garik16 on Aug 15, 2025 10:37 PM EDT reply actions
He does have a twin brother named Akeem
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Aug 16, 2025 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Lucas Duda has 309 strikeouts in 179 at-bats?
Looks like a slight typo.
Leader of Drew Vettleson fanclub
by Marinerfanjake on Aug 15, 2025 10:41 PM EDT reply actions
Wilmer Flores
Anyone have any insight into that enigma?
by Croatoan on Aug 15, 2025 10:52 PM EDT reply actions
Flores
I wouldn’t worry too much about the performance, but I think the main thing is he’s really not developing physically as one might have hoped.
When he was a tall lanky 18 year old with strong contact ability, you could maybe dream on the power coming down the road. At this stage, he still seems like he could possibly handle 3B, but could end up at 1B, and the power probably won’t be better than average. He still has good contact ability and will probably hit some. But upside isn’t that great. His hands are decent, and he should probably stay on the infield for now. But he’s slow, and the arm really isn’t great either. He gets it there when he needs to, but lobs a lot of throws.
So overall, I think the tools and athleticism have declined some, and the power hasn’t yet developed that you would want to compensate for that. It looks like he’ll be a 3B/1B type with a good hit tool, and maybe average power. Just probably not an elite guy.
by acerimusdux on Aug 16, 2025 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Well put
Can’t argue with any of that. The problem is a lack of development/progress here more than anything. He still has some time, but his ceiling is entirely tied to his power potential and there isn’t much of an indication its arriving yet.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 16, 2025 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
power numbers aren't bad at all for Florida State League
It’s not easy to put up a good performance at any age in that league, let alone age 19-20.
by mrkupe on Aug 16, 2025 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Juan Lagares and Jordany Valdespin will be highish on this list next year
I would not have given you crap for where you ranked Puello or Ceciliani, but a couple of guys seemed ranked higher than I would have imagined.
I know there is no point in judging a season until it is over, but what grade would you give Wilmer at this point/are you leaning towards? It is basically the same high-A numbers as last year with a lower BABIP and slightly improved BB% and K%, but it is still not that impressive. Might end up with a few more HRs at the expense of a few 2Bs.
I LIKE IKE!
by astromets on Aug 15, 2025 11:22 PM EDT reply actions
How are Harvey's secondary pitches this season?
are his breaking balls above average pitches (in other words will he have more success at higher levels than Mike Pelfrey?)
by secret defense on Aug 16, 2025 12:14 AM EDT reply actions
At this point
I have Harvey, Familia, Wheeler, and Mejia ahead of Wilmer, in no particular order. I might get flamed for this, but I actually have Nieuwenhuis higher now as well.
by Fanon on Aug 16, 2025 7:50 AM EDT reply actions
Flamed?
Why? for the past few seasons we’ve heard that his body will catch up to what people project and that he’ll begin to show what everyone thinks he can produce…so far he’s done little physically, some say he’s gotten worse and his stats aren’t worthy of him being placed above those guys (at this point) even if he’s only 20 years old….
by jerzbravesboy24 on Aug 16, 2025 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Nieuwenhuis
A lot of people aren’t big fans of Nieuwenhuis, though I’m in love with the guy. The broad skill-set without excelling in a given area tends to fly somewhat under the radar. If healthy he’d be a straight grade B from me. Given the injury I’ve got him as a B-.
by Fanon on Aug 16, 2025 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Broad skill sets...
This is very true. There’s a lot to be said for a guy who’s average to slightly above at everything, even if they’re excellent at nothing (Choo’s probably the best example of this in the MLB right now, though he’s not been at that level this year).
Now writing for BaseballInstinct.com
by Franchise887 on Aug 16, 2025 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Nieuwenhuis still has question marks
He’s not fast enough to play CF in Citi Field and he may not hit for enough power for a corner spot. He hit really well this year before he was injured, but that was tied to really high BABIP (.407.) He has always struck out way too much, but he did improve this year in AAA from 29.3% to 26.7%. He needs to get that down, or somehow magically increase his bat speed so that he can for more power.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Aug 16, 2025 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
In fact, I believe that the awesomeness of this draft plus the acquisition of Wheeler will make it hard to put Flores even in the top 10.
by TheBigStapler on Aug 16, 2025 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Duda's true level
Duda started the year 6 for 42 and since is hitting .331/.397/.559 in 136 at bats with 5 homers and 25 rbi in 46 games since being inserted into the starting lineup. Given his minor league numbers (.310/.396/.606 in 108 AAA games between 2010 and 2011) and his age (25), is it possible he’s better than his YTD major league numbers?
by Boz_Paladin on Aug 16, 2025 9:33 AM EDT reply actions
I think so
Though he’s on the old side, something clicked last year and he’s been developing in earnest since then, IMO. I don’t think he’s going to OPS .900, but I don’t think the mid-.800s are out of the question.
by Fanon on Aug 16, 2025 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that a .900+ OPS is a reasonable projection for Duda
That’s what he did in July with a sustainable .306 BABIP.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Aug 16, 2025 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
You think he is a top 16 offensive player (only 16 players this year have over a .900 OPS). Last year, only 14 players had over a .900 OPS. Over the last three years (2009-2011), only 12 players have over a .900 OPS.
There is no way you can expect Duda to be a top 15 player. I think mid-.800 are as high as you should project, and probably closer to a .800 OPS.
by cookiedabookie on Aug 16, 2025 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying that he is now, or that it is guaranteed that he will be
But I do believe that he is capable of being a .900+ OPS hitter.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Aug 16, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
That's pretty doubtful
A .900 OPS is higher than David Wright’s career mark. Duda might sustain that for stretches, but he’s going to slump, too.
by psiogen on Aug 16, 2025 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think that his July numbers are unsustainable
Now his August numbers so far, those are unsustainable.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Aug 16, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
The other thing about Duda is that he broke his wrist right before getting drafted.
Which sapped all his power for a couple years and hence any real prospect hype. He’s a big strong kid who takes his walks and makes contact. I can see him sniffing at a 900 OPS but giving a lot of back with his D.
by FrancoTAU on Aug 16, 2025 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Pitching looking much better
A year ago I was kind of disappointed in the lack of progress with the starting pitching. Looking much better now. Between Harvey and Familia breaking out, plus the acquisition of Wheeler, as well as breakouts by a couple of C+ types in Schwinden and Gorski, they now will have both depth and upside there.
by acerimusdux on Aug 17, 2025 9:07 AM EDT reply actions
Re: Duda
John, when you said his ML performance is a correct expression of his talent level, were you referring to the .795 OPS he had at that point YTD, or what he’s done since his June recall which is something like .304/.370/.500 in about 180 PAs?
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Aug 17, 2025 9:19 AM EDT reply actions
I think
he started out the year in a 2-20 hole iirc, so that bears noting. I don’t think he’ll stay an .870 hitter, but I think he’ll be somewhere in between that and .795… his contact skills and approach are that solid.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Aug 17, 2025 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
and your opinion on Josh Satin?
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Aug 17, 2025 3:12 PM EDT reply actions
Satin
I have always liked Josh Satin since his days in college. In fact I think I’ll make him Prospect of the Day for Friday.
by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice!
He’s gotten very good results all thru the minors but appears to be a dead pull hitter without enough top end power, so adjustments will be necessary in order to stick at the next level, imo. If he can make those adjustments, he could exceed current projections… if not, he’ll top out as an IF UT player. He apparently hasn’t excited scouts with his glove at 2B or 3B either and of course 1B is a stretch w/ just doubles power, so he does profile as a UT player at the moment, but an offensive 2Bman if things break right.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Aug 17, 2025 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
His defense is supposedly terrible
There’s no way he starts in the infield.
by Fanon on Aug 17, 2025 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Does he really have less range at 2B than Justin Turner?
I’m doubtful.
by psiogen on Aug 18, 2025 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Turner is fine at 2B
and has solid instincts pretty much all over the IF.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Aug 18, 2025 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
He hasn't been obviously an embarrassment, but the defensive metrics say he's been a big drag
And, like Satin, he came up with pretty negative scouting reports on his D.
by psiogen on Aug 18, 2025 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
if your point is that Satin may not
be any worse a 2Bman than Turner (who is actually fine), then he could be more viable than some are suggesting. I’m with ya there… I’d like to see for myself what Satin can do with the glove before I’d conclude he can’t get it done. To me, the downside of a weak 2Bman isn’t much anyway, provided he can turn a DP and backpeddle on pop flies adequately.
Dan Murphy otoh, is just now learning all the nuances of playing MI so you can see the mistakes. Satin has a lot of experience at 2B so I wouldn’t expect there to be those sorts of fundamental issues.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Aug 18, 2025 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
It's possible
But I have trouble getting excited about old guys with bad defense putting up good numbers.
by Fanon on Aug 18, 2025 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Satin's D
It’s not horrible. Somehow he has gotten this reputation as a bat-only butcher. His arm isn’t great and is certainly stretched at 3B, but he is a decent athlete with good hands. I think his defense is comparable to Turner’s without the ability to play SS (though we can debate whether Turner really has that ‘ability’ as well). He’s an old guy, but the bat hasn’t just suddenly gotten good. He’s hit at every level, even if the power might be a bit fluky this year.
the artist formerly known as TeufelCat
@jeffpaternostro
by Jeffrey Paternostro on Aug 18, 2025 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, this
Satin is practically a clone of Turner, except with a few more walks, strikeouts, and doubles. He’s definitely worth a look at 2B if the Mets are going to continue cobbling the position together out of untoolsy scrap infielders…on the off-chance his skillset plays a bit better against MLB pitching than Turner’s.
It’s easy I think to get caught up on whether a guy is “good enough to start”. Even championship teams usually wind up with one or two of those kinds of marginal guys playing every day at whatever their weakest positions might be. If a guy is good enough to be the 8th-best position player on a good team, then he’s good enough to start, even if you would prefer he didn’t.
by psiogen on Aug 18, 2025 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
and let's not make too light of Satin's bat
some have suggested that Satin will be no better than (or like above, a clone of) Turner, but Satin has hit considerably more over his 4 yrs in the minors than Turner did… I don’t think Turner ever broke an .800 until last season at Buffalo in which he hit .906 in 78 games. Maybe he made some adjustments, and as I said, Satin will have to make some also but he prob has a higher ceiling as a hitter.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Aug 18, 2025 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
if you can somehow graft Satin's skills into Puello's body...
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Aug 18, 2025 5:39 PM EDT reply actions
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