New York Mets Preliminary Prospect List

and they have already played in AA.

there’s zero chance he’ll stick on an MLB team for an entire season right now.

ArmandoRod
Cuan
Holt
Tovar
Cruz

Add:
Huchingson
Gomez
Hebert
Whitenton

Reportedly, his nicknames were “Johnny Pants”, and “Panda”. So naturally some of us have taken to calling him Panda Pants. Unfortunately, he’s not really good enough to make the list yet, even after accounting for the 80 name tool.

22-year-old lefties who sit in the 92-95 mph range don´t grow on trees. Especially when they´ve been sort of rushed to Double A ball. Probably not a future SP - but could very well benefit from a move to the bullpen.

If they could use him some at 2B, he’d be interesting enough. If his defense is bad enough there that they are only going to play him at 3B/1B, then I’d drop him.

Lutz and Edgin certainly have to stay on. Both have a pretty solid upside and seem highly likely to have extended major league careers - be it in not so prominent roles. However, both have performed very well - in Lutz ´ case, when healthy.

Gilbert Gomez certainly seems like a significant omission based on his nice tools package and surprising performance when thrown to High A ball.
Same for Whitenton who also has pretty good stuff, nice K-rates and probably was the best arm on the Savannah pitching staff in 2011 - at least once Peavey moved up.

As for cuts from John´s initial list, LH Angel Cuan probably is a finesse LOOGY at best long term - barring a Gorski-type breakout. If that happens, one can still include him next year. Scratch him. Rhiner Cruz would have been a borderline candidate anyway. Yes, he throws hard - but he certainly wasn´t a top 30 prospect for the Mets prior to the Rule V based on his lack of command, his relatively advanced age and uneven success.

And while he still has name reckognition, from what I hear, Brad Holt barely touched 92 mph in 2011 - even as a reliever, so not sure he´s a decent prospect at this point. While Stinson is not as well known, his stuff is much better at this point and he´s more likely to have a major league career. Of course, he seems destined for a future setup reliever career if all goes well, so unsure whether he makes a top 40 cut. However, he´s clearly ahead of Holt at this point. And his velocity is pretty close to Rhiner Cruz.

And while Eric Goeddel has a pretty good arm, the odds that he stays healthy and progresses seem somewhat remote.

Marte hasn´t shown anything over the past few years - except for some brief success in the AFL - and essentially is a “poor man´s” Wilmer Flores without the contact skills or chance to stay at 3b. While he - like Holt - has been a constant on Mets lists of past years, don´t see him as a top 30 overall prospect and would go with some of the June 2011 picks instead.

As for Josh Satin or Chris Schwinden, the question is whether John wants to include the two prospects most likely to play a role on the 2012 Mets non-contender (along with Stinson) or whether he´d rather have the most likely under the radar contributors to the 2014 / 2015 Mets team ? Both Satin & Schwinden had nice seasons in 2011. Yet, their upside certainly seems very,very limited. By the way, the Mets did pick up RHP Jeremy Hefner from the SD system recently. Hefner missed the cut in that system apparently but actually has a profile very similar to Dillon Gee or Chris Schwinden and probably would be 1st in line if there´s an injury to a Mets SP this spring - or at least compete with Schwinden for that spot. So, he´s also in the “likely appears in the majors in 2012” category.

All in all, the Baseball America Top 10 seemed pretty sound. After that, the question is whether you prefer some nice June 2011 draftees with small samples, advanced upper level guys with limited ceilings or raw prospects from the lower levels with lots of uncertainty.

McHugh seems like a pretty smart guy, has his own blog, was tremendous for AA Binghamton during the 2nd half of 2011 and thus would seem like a good “story”. So, while his ceiling probably is back-end rotation SP or setup reliever, I believe he should be on. Once again - somewhat similar to Schwinden or Hefner, an upper level arm who is very close to getting a chance and who may well follow Dillon Gee or - a bit longer ago - Brian Bannister in terms of emerging as a useful inexpensive SP for the back end of a major league rotation.

Also, have to agree with John here on including Satin (aka the Mets “Minor League Player of the Year”) or Schwinden - arguably the Mets´ # 6 starter at the moment. Again, not a major ceiling - but a pretty solid floor and high likelihood to get there. And sometimes, high floor players go on and enjoy pretty lengthy major league careers.

Of course, the key to the Mets longterm chances will mainly be about the quality of their pitching. While the offense certainly will suffer a bit from losing Reyes, the players already there are pretty solid hitters: Ike Davis - Lucas Duda - Daniel Murphy - Ruben Tejada are all pretty young and have already shown a pretty good ability to get OB. Of course, none of them was a highly touted prospect, so they´ll have to convince skeptics that they´re indeed legit major league hitters. Yet, having watched them over extended stretches is quite convincing. And a lot, of course, depends on if & how David Wright bounces back with the ballpark dimensions neutralized. However, I don´t think scoring runs will be a problem for the 2012 Mets or Mets teams going forward.

However, the pitching staff seems to be by far the worst in the NL East right now. The ability for the Mets to improve it from within or from the outside, will determine their chance for future success (well, besides some sort of financial stability…).

That´s why the progression of not only the “Big 4” Harvey - Wheeler - Familia - Mejia is so important but also the progress of some of the better 2nd tier mid to likely upper level arms like Edgin, Carson, Mazzoni or Leathersich.

I think the strikeouts are a concern. But I don’t understand when I see people dissing his tools or upside. His tools and athleticism look pretty comparable to Nimmo to me. Nimmo is the same height, similar frame, will need to add 25 pounds of muscle to have the power there. Nimmo might be a tic faster now (when healthy) but also projects to slow down a bit as he adds that muscle and probably ends up in a corner.

So what it comes down to, Nimmo hopefully makes a bit more contact. Maybe ends up with a bit more power. But hard to say any of that for sure with a kid out of HS.

very few reaches, imo.

The first 6 (Davis - Niese - Duda - Tejada - Gee - Thole) established themselves in 2010 and / or 2011 and are all still ages 25 or younger.

Murphy & Parnell are already 26 and 27 respectively and - at least in Murphy´s case - already played quite a bit in 2008 and 2009 with the big team, so I wouldn´t consider those two as potential younger building blocks at this point to be listed with the other, younger pieces. Though Gee & Thole certainly don´t fit the “building block” label anyway. Murphy & Parnell are more in the age tier of Pelfrey, plus maybe even David Wright (who just turned 29).