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Top players under 25


Does anyone know of a site that ranks future potential for all players under 25? Kevin Goldstein does a great job ranking them by team on Baseball Prospectus, but I was looking for a top 100 ranking.  Ideally the list would factor in defense. I'd be interested in seeing something like this because I'm curious how former top prospects who have MLB experience rank with current prospects. For example, I'd like to see some opinions on where guys like Derek Holland & Dexter Fowler rank with Madison Bumgarner & Cameron Maybin.

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Project Prospect

Did that before last season. A top 50 hitters under 25 and one for pitchers, plus they did some top 10/15s for each position (some under 25 some under 30).

by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 10:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

re

I went to Project Prospect and clicked on Top 25 Position Prospects (9/1) and just don’t understand some of the rankings. The first two that REALLY jump out at me are Ackley above Jennings (though that’s just one place) and FMart above, well, a lot of the people that he’s above.

by rmarx on Jan 13, 2026 9:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

they have some pretty controversial rankings right now. it will be interesting to see which players they like more than everyone else pan out.

by auclairkeithbc on Jan 13, 2026 10:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Dewey Finn corollary

“Look at us! Look at us! Our rankings are much different than everyone else’s! This lets us say that we’re generating debate!”

by Galt on Jan 13, 2026 11:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't think that is the case with PP though.

They just like some moderately high floor guys and think they’ll have a nice impact, and don’t buy into a lot of toolsy unproven players. Although there are exceptions to that philosophy too. I think they are aiming to be accurate, not trying to spark controversy. Thinking highly of Carlos Carrasco and Kevin Mulvey, isn’t exactly hot stuff.

by auclairkeithbc on Jan 13, 2026 11:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Next they'll be comparing white players to black players!

My car gets 40 rods to the hogshead and that’s the way I likes it!

by aap212 on Jan 13, 2026 1:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Like yourself?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jan 17, 2026 2:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If we are counting MLB players...

Lincecum is #1… shortly after is Kershaw.

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 12, 2026 11:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yup

Kershaw? Kershaw for me is third best player under 25 on his own team! Im taking Kemp and Billingsley easy.

Assumes age 25 counts for Kemp…

by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 11:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

How would you rationalize that? Kershaw is 3 1/2 years younger, had a better K/9 last year by a full strikeout and a half, his FIP was 3.08 compared to Billingsley’s 3.82, he’s left handed, and he’s under team control for 2 more years (not exactly a criterion for this question). Kershaw’s production AND potential are better than Billingsley’s. I don’t think any team would rather start a team with Billingsley rather than Kershaw.

And, if we are really going to stick to the “Under 25”, Billingsley is 25 1/2 and will turn 26 by the first trimester of next season.

by lions1 on Jan 13, 2026 1:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

by zeisenbe on Jan 13, 2026 1:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess I cant justify it

Looking at it again. Billingsley was more proven in my head.

I just dont think Kershaw will continue succeeding at this rate if he keeps walking that many guys. His xFIP was 3.90 fwiw. He gets helped a lot by Dodgers stadium.

I just think Billingsley will return to form (and he was better than Kershaw previous to this year) and Kershaw will regress.

by alskor on Jan 13, 2026 1:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is so true.

If Felix pitched for the Dodgers, you’d be saying “Lincecum who?”

by PissedMick on Jan 13, 2026 8:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?

Felix pitches in Safeco, one of the best pitchers parks in baseball (and he has a tremendous defense behind him).

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 8:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True.

But Lincecum pitches in the NL, faces pitchers three times a game, plays in a pitchers park, and shares a division with San Diego, LA, and Arizona.

Felix, on the other hand, has the Angels (#2 offense in baseball), Rangers (#10), and A’s (#14) in his division. If he were in LA (probably the situation for a starting pitcher in baseball) he’d have two bottom-five offenses in his division, and call 2009’s third best pitcher’s park his home (Safeco was #10). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .50 drop in Felix’s FIP if he moved to the Dodgers, which would drop him easily into Lincecum territory.

by PissedMick on Jan 13, 2026 10:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He was lucky across the board in 2009.

Unless we see a significant increase in his peripherals, 2010 will likely be a disappointment for Kershaw fans.

Of course, pitching in Dodger Stadium has something to do with that luck, so it might not change as much as it should.

by PissedMick on Jan 13, 2026 10:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

please define "lucky"

I’m not trying to be a smart ass - I’m trying to understand all of the ‘new’ metrics. Did he have a high FIP (or xFIP, whatever) or was the BABIP against him really high?

by rmarx on Jan 13, 2026 10:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The three numbers I look at first...

to define “luck” in a pitcher’s totals is BABIP, HR/F, and LOB%

Kershaw’s BABIP was .274 in 2009. Now, LA’s pitchers had the lowest BABIP in the league at .286, so some of that was park and good defense. However, there’s no reason not to expect Kershaw’s number to regress quite a bit next year. The mean for this number is ~.305, so you should start looking at least a little skeptically at any number <.300.

Kershaw’s HR/F was 4.1% last year. Again, his park helps a lot. Still, the team average was 8.1% (lowest in baseball, again), so projecting Kershaw to double that number next year would be perfectly reasonable. The mean for this number is ~10%.

FIP will account for BABIP and LOB%, but doesn’t adjust for homerun rate (xFIP does this). That’s why Kershaw’s xFIP is 3.90 for 2009, while his FIP is 3.08. If I had to ballpark it, I’d say his ERA should have been somewhere around 3.50, rather than 2.79, because his ballpark and division is always going to help him vs. xFIP.

Kershaw’s LOB% last year was 77.5%. Being a strikeout pitcher will help this number, but the mean last year was ~71.5%, and there’s not a ton of variance. Of the top 20 K/9 starters in baseball, 15 had lower rates than Kershaw, including five of the six guys ahead of him.

by PissedMick on Jan 13, 2026 11:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oops

somehow the third and fourth paragraph got switched. Read the fourth one third, if that makes more sense.

by PissedMick on Jan 13, 2026 11:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thx

though I think you’re undervaluing him by a bit, I appreciate the feedback! I still think that his numbers as a 21 year old in the majors are impressive no matter how you slice and dice it, and yes ‘luck’ may have had something to do with it (as you’ve proven), but he’ll also improve and ‘negate’ some of that luck differential.

by rmarx on Jan 13, 2026 11:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh he's really good

No one is doubting that.

Just how good is the issue, and I agree, its closer to a 3.50-3.75 kind of guy. He’s really not one of the top tier of pitchers in baseball right now, despite the misleading ERA indicating he is. Top tier starters don’t walk over 5 guys per 9 (and YES, Nolan Ryan was very overrated).

by alskor on Jan 13, 2026 1:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I completley forgot about Longoria...

my bad

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 13, 2026 5:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed about Lincecum

Except he’s not “under 25”.

This eliminates a lot of my candidates (Tulo, Fielder, kemp, Zimmerman, Josh Johnson) since they are all exactly 25.

If it’s truly “under 25”, and the question is “who is the BEST” and not “who would you rather have…” (e.g., I’d rather have Rasmus at than Coghlan but Coghlan unquestionably had the better year)

My top 10 would look something like this (factoring in defensive utility as well) - I’m sure I’m missing some people

1. Felix
2. Upton
3. Kershaw
4. Weiters
5. Brett Anderson
6. Bruce
7. Adam Jones
8. Rasmus
9. Billy Butler
10. Gallardo

I didn’t include Heyward, Santana, Strasburg. I guess I could slide them in there, but it would honestly be based on very little information.

by Galt on Jan 13, 2026 11:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

1. Evan Longoria (He doesn’t turn 25 until October)

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 11:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ah, thought he was already 25

I’d probably put him either right before or right after Upton.

by Galt on Jan 13, 2026 11:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Considering Adam Jones is #7...

I don’t think arguing for McCutchen would be unreasonable.

by PissedMick on Jan 13, 2026 12:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Except

Adam Jones is a brilliant defender, and McCutchen is mediocre.

And Adam Jones, while significantly younger than McCutchen had about .50 points on him in isolated slugging over his minor league career.

McCutchen’s 2009 season was out of line with his minor league career and at this point, I put more weight on that - significantly moreso than his 3 month hot streak.

McCutchen is a decent fielding speedster with a likely career .350 wOBA guy. Certainly valuable, but not elite. Like Nate McLouth or a worse fielding version of Shane Victorino.

And to the comment below, defense matters and both Rasmus and Adam Jones are elite centerfielders, while McCutchen is maybe a little better than average. Plus, they both have significantly more offensive upside.

by Galt on Jan 13, 2026 12:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and to the logical follow up

“well if defense, matters why is Billy Butler there”.

Because he is going to be a god offensively.

The 50+ doubles he hit last year become homers, and I think he’s a long term .400+ wOBA along the lines of .325/.400/.550

by Galt on Jan 13, 2026 12:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My logical follow-up...

is, “why the hell do you think Adam Jones is so much better in CF than McCutchen?” There’s certainly no statistical argument for it, and scouts love McCutchen’s defense.

Do you rank defenders by their gold gloves and WebGems appearances?

by PissedMick on Jan 13, 2026 1:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Too early to make that kind of statement on McCutchen's D

The UZR data is tiny and he certainly has the speed to be a plus defender

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

minor league splits data says the same thing

I’m not basing it on UZR. In fact I didn’t even look at UZR when writing it and was hoping that his ‘09 UZR didn’t contradict so I’d have to make the same argument you are making now.

And I’ve always read he was mediocre in the field as well. Plus, he’s got a kind of weak arm.

by Galt on Jan 13, 2026 12:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

TZR is inconsistent

I’m not really sure how accurate it is, but even if we assume that it is accurate, it isn’t a continued trend:

2006: +9
2007: +8
2008: +6
2009: -4

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 12:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Goldstein
The Good: Despite middling numbers, scouts still project stardom for McCutchen based on his incredible tools. He’s a phenomenal athlete with a lightning bat that gives him at least average power potential despite a smallish frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with excellent range in center field and a solid arm, and a threat to steal a base every time he gets on. The Pirates love his work ethic and his drive to get better, citing the adjustments he made during the latter months of the season.

Emphasis mine.

by PissedMick on Jan 13, 2026 1:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Defense

I’ll take a wait-and-see approach on that… McCutchen’s got the talent to be an above average CF.

Offensively… McCutchen must have had a hot streak all year because he was the same guy in AAA (303/361/493) that he was in the majors (286/365/471). Scouts have always argued that the power was in there somewhere and it started to manifest itself last year. If you don’t believe in it, fine, but I wouldn’t bet against it continuing.

I’ll buy Adam Jones, although I have some reservations, but Rasmus wasn’t nearly the same player offensively in ’08 and ’09 that he was in ’07 and McCutchen badly outhit him last year. I need to see it to believe it at this point.

by jc3 on Jan 13, 2026 12:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Other than the fact that he won a gold glove

Where’s the evidence that Jones is such a brilliant defender? Every defensive metric rated him average in CF, which is still pretty good, but not necessarily better than Cutch. Just more flashy.

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by Brickhaus on Jan 13, 2026 12:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yup

He misplays some balls and gets some poor jumps, and then makes up for it with highlight reel catches. It’s like Victorino or Ellsburry.

by rglass44 on Jan 13, 2026 1:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

You still think Rasmus & Billy Butler have more value than McCutchen, or at least enough to make it “hilarious”?

by jc3 on Jan 13, 2026 12:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If you make the Longoria adjustment, we're pretty close

I’d move Butler out of there, though. I like him a lot, but positional value and some optimism would make me take Heyward, Strasburg, or Posey ahead of him. Hanson or Matusz probably, too.

by aap212 on Jan 13, 2026 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, duh,

I forgot about King Felix

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 12, 2026 11:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Lincecum vs King Felix

That would be a good smackdown….maybe.

by rmarx on Jan 13, 2026 9:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

my top 10 under 25 pitchers

These are guys that will still be 25 when the season starts
Tim Lincecum-25
Felix Hernandez-24
Yovanni Gallardo-24
Clayton Kershaw-22
Chad Billingsley-25
Matt Cain-25
Jair Jurrjens-24
Tommy Hanson-23
Rick Porcello-21
John Danks-25

by LawBe on Jan 13, 2026 11:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not bad

Though I would question Porcello and possibly Jurrjens on that list.

by hybrid on Jan 13, 2026 11:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Especially

since it excludes Brett Anderson, should probably be in the top 5 of that list.

by Galt on Jan 13, 2026 11:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

question

I wouldn’t question porcello being on the list at all. I wouldn’t have Jurrjens on it, and I’d definitely have Anderson on there. Billingsley seems high, though I’m not sure where I would put him. Danks, IMHO, is questionable also.

by rmarx on Jan 13, 2026 11:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

anderson

I actually had anderson at 11 and david price at 12. If your going with who i would rather have, these guys would be on the list, i was kind of going with what they have done so far.

by LawBe on Jan 13, 2026 11:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Anderson should be on the list, but it's a solid one

I’d probably slot him ahead of Jurrjens for upside reasons. I’d probably have to put Strasburg in contention too.

by aap212 on Jan 13, 2026 1:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my top 10 under 25 hitters

Same here, will still be 25 when season starts
Evan Longoria-24
Matt Kemp-25
Troy Tulowitzki-25
Ryan Zimmerman-25
Prince Fielder-25
Justin Upton-22
Pablo Sandoval-23
Adam Jones-24
Andrew McCutchen-23
Jay Bruce-23

by LawBe on Jan 13, 2026 11:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

re

I’d move Upton up to #2, Sandoval down a bit, and Bruce up to top 5.

by rmarx on Jan 13, 2026 11:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

?

So if longoria is one, and you have upton at 2. Who would you drop out of the top 5 to get Bruce in. I would take Kemp, Tulo and Zimmerman over Upton, probably fielder too. I can see making a case for Sandoval to be 10. Had wieters and couglan as my 11 and 12.

by LawBe on Jan 13, 2026 11:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you all know more about this than I do, but...

I’d have something more along the lines of:

Evan Longoria-24
Justin Upton-22
Matt Kemp-25
Troy Tulowitzki-25
Jay Bruce-23
Ryan Zimmerman-25
Prince Fielder-25
Adam Jones-24
Andrew McCutchen-23
Pablo Sandoval-23

I think Tulo is where he is because of his position. Longo and Upton are interchangeable at 1-2, and the next 3 are fairly interchangeable. Of course, this is all just in my opinion.

by rmarx on Jan 13, 2026 11:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just a guess

But the 15 to 20 run advantage that Zimmerman has over in Upton in terms of defensive value probably has a lot to do with it.

by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 5:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, way to be incredibly rude.

I’ll take a 22 year old superstar in the making right fielder, who in his first full season put up a 4.5 WAR, over a 25 year old injury prone third baseman who’s “amazing” defense fluctuates. He had a great fielding year in 2007 and 2009 but was average in his other 2+ years. I find it very hard to justify overlooking Justin Upton’s upside for Ryan Zimmerman, who had an uncharacteristically high HR/FB rate in his career year of 2009. Of course hitters have more control over HR/FB than pitchers, but it usually is fairly consistent over time and he had an 11.5% HR/FB for 3 consecutive years and then has a 16% in 2009. I think he is due for some regression. Although he is obviously a great player, I’m not sure you can really dispute the potential and production Upton has already displayed.

by lions1 on Jan 13, 2026 6:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ryan Zimmerman was 24 in 2009.

What you call “uncharacteristically high HR/FB rate in his career year”, most people would call development.

by PissedMick on Jan 13, 2026 6:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

And ….I am not sure how you can call a 24 yr old that has played in 602 games injury prone.

by Rkdrip on Jan 15, 2026 1:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wait what?

I wasn’t being rude at all, let alone incredibly rude. You asked someone else a question and since I can’t read that guys mind I made a guess as to what his argument would be. Seriously man, if you’re posting on the internet and you think that comment was rude you either need to grow some thicker skin or stop posting. I mean that in the least rude way possible. I tried answering your question, didn’t attack you, or really do anything at all and you’re going to get offended by it? Seriously?

Anyway, in response to your post, Zimmerman posted a 4.1 WAR in his first full season, and he was younger at the time then Upton was this past season (only about a month younger but still). We have no idea if his defense fluctuates or the numbers do because of simple variance, but its clear that Zimmerman is indeed an amazing fielder as his UZR/150 is 12.0 in almost 600 career games now and he’s never been any worse than 2 runs above average in any season (and he was hurt that year). Oh and what do you mean by saying he’s injury prone? Other than last year he’s never missed more than 5 games in a season.

Look, I never even said that I’d take Zimmerman over Upton. I was simply trying to explain why someone may like Zimmerman more. No one is disputing the potential or production Upton has. Some people may just feel that Zimmerman has produced far more so far (he has, including a 7+ WAR season this year at 24) and doesn’t lag that far behind in terms of potential because he doesn’t need to be nearly as good of a hitter as Upton to post a better WAR.

by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 6:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not to disagree with you

and i realize you didn’t intend it to be but I could see how your previous comment could be interpreted as kind of condescending.

by zeisenbe on Jan 14, 2026 2:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Best

Top Pitcher: Felix… not really that close.
Top Hitter: Upton - prefer him to Longoria just based on the fact that I think he will be the best player in baseball after Pujols gets too old. His offensive upside + athleticism is downright scary.

by jc3 on Jan 13, 2026 11:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dummy

“prefer him to Longoria just based on the fact that I think he will be the best player in baseball after Pujols gets too old” - really, jc3? What I meant to say is that his athleticism & offensive upside eclipse any possible position advantage Longoria may have in my mind. Now, if you include contract, Longoria moves ahead, but I think we’re just talking about pure talent.

by jc3 on Jan 13, 2026 12:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Upton/Longoria

Longoria’s plus plus defense gives him the edge for me.

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

he is already better and he’s 2 years younger. He had a higher ops last year and has much more speed. positional value is a wash/

by ScottAZ on Jan 13, 2026 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Postional Value/Defense

How is it a wash? Longoria is a premier defensive third baseman while Upton is a good defensive right fielder.

Upton was a 4.5 WAR player last year, while Longoria was a 7.2 WAR player. Upton would have been closer if he hadn’t been injured, but the 19 game difference doesn’t make up that much ground.

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 12:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

positional value

what i mean is they play corner spots rather than “premium” defensive positions. If Upton was an above ave CFer or Longoria was a top notch SS it would create a greater disparity

by ScottAZ on Jan 13, 2026 12:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It depends what you believe

If you believe fangraphs, third base is a premium position (I tend to think so). Their positional adjustments are:

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

by jar75 on Jan 13, 2026 12:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

re

i’ve always been partial to Bill James and he considers them somewhat a wash, but there are so many staticians today with so many theories and formulas so who knows

by ScottAZ on Jan 13, 2026 2:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

... not really

I’ve never seen a single serious scholar of the subject suggest that 3B and corner OF are equivalent. 3B is far more valuable. The plays involved are SO much more difficult to make.

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by PaulThomas on Jan 13, 2026 6:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bill James

argues that it is about a wash. In different eras defense at 3b was a higher priority than it is today (in eras in which the bunt or hit and run were more prevelent).

and I highly doubt there is any statistic supporting the plays they make are SO much more difficult. That is completely subjective

by ScottAZ on Jan 14, 2026 9:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No Asdrubal Cabrera?

by JP_Frost on Jan 13, 2026 1:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

haha

I actually can’t tell if you’re joking or not because you’re an Indians fan. Cabrera should be nowhere near this list.

by rmarx on Jan 13, 2026 1:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

didn’t mean in a top 10, but shouldn’t be in a top 100 of players under 25? That’s not far fetched.

by JP_Frost on Jan 13, 2026 2:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lincecum v Felix

For me, comes down to a time line. If we’re talking strictly next year, I take Lincecum. If I have to take whatever they produce over the next 5 years, then I take Felix. This actually has little to do with what I expect from their productivity. Lincecum’s delivery is so different that projecting him seems to be based on an awful lot of guesswork and hope. If one of my considerations has to be risk management, I would rather have the pitcher that we have comps on.

by sstamour on Jan 13, 2026 2:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs


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