Communit Prospect #30
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:27 PM EST
208 comments
With 18.8% of the vote(51.6% runoff), Jenrry Mejia is elected Community Prospect #29.
1. Jason Heyward - 51%
2. Stephen Strasburg - 76%
3. Buster Posey - 20% (43% runoff)
4. Michael Stanton - 20% (54% runoff)
5. Jesus Montero - 20% (45% runoff)
6. Brian Matusz - 21%
7. Pedro Alvarez - 23%
8. Desmond Jennings - 29%
9. Carlos Santana -37% (50% runoff)
10. Neftali Feliz -37% (50% runoff)
11. Justin Smoak - 46%
12. Domonic Brown - 23% (59% runoff)
13. Madison Bumgarner - 30%
14. Martin Perez - 28%
15. Dustin Ackley - 31%
16. Chris Carter - 33.6%
17. Jeremy Hellickson - 29.4%
18. Michael Taylor - 36.9%
19. Alcides Escobar - 37.0%
20. Christian Friedrich - 29.0%(53.2% runoff)
21. Logan Morrison - 45.6%
22. Ryan Westmoreland - 24.7%
23. Aroldis Chapman - 32.0%
24. Wade Davis - 40.8%
25. Fernando Martinez - 30.5%
26. Aaron Hicks - 33.3%
27. Kyle Drabek - 34.0%
28. Lonnie Chisenhall - 24.5%
Players will get 2 rounds on the poll as a tester, if they fail to draw 5% in those polls they will then be removed and sit out up to 3 rounds.
Players off the poll(will sit out up to 3 rounds): Michael Saunders(#28-2.1%), Matt Moore(#27-2.9%), Tyler Matzek(#26-0.0%), Casey Kelly(#26-3.4%)Derek Norris(#25-1.0%), Jason Castro(#25-1.0%),
Tester pool: Hector Rondon, Ryan Kalish, Michael Montgomery, Matt Dominguez, Todd Frazier, Josh Reddick, Brett Lawrie, Zach Stewart, Simon Castro, Grant Green, Ike Davis
The candidates with previous round vote %:
Freddie Freeman 10.6%
Jordan Lyles 3.5%
Starlin Castro 5.9%
Jacob Turner 10.6%
Dee Gordon 3.5%
Dan Hudson 4.7%
Jhoulys Chacin 7.1%
Brett Wallace 7.1%
Yonder Alonso 16.5%
Casey Crosby 8.2%
Over 130 AB/50 IP cutoff for eligibility
Please vote using the +1 system, not the rec system. Rec'd votes will not be counted in this poll, only actual posts with +1.
3 recs |
208 comments
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Comments
Vote with a +1 here for Freddie Freeman
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:29 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Jan 18, 2026 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T; Park in 2010
by Gobroks on Jan 18, 2026 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Jordan Lyles
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:29 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Starlin Castro
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:29 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
by hero66 on Jan 19, 2026 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Jacob Turner
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:30 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by JDSussman on Jan 18, 2026 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 19, 2026 2:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jan 19, 2026 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Dee Gordon
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:30 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Jake Arrieta
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:30 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
by wickedwitch on Jan 18, 2026 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Dan Hudson
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:30 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
"I think that's a lot of horse muffins." - Bob Feller
by e-gus on Jan 19, 2026 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Jhoulys Chacin
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:30 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Brett Wallace
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:30 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Jan 18, 2026 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Jan 19, 2026 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Yonder Alonso
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:31 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 18, 2026 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I’m surprised he isn’t a more obvious choice to most. Is he not “fresh” enough a name?
by PissedMick on Jan 18, 2026 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
and to keith, i don’t have him on my keeper team………
by Los Gueros on Jan 18, 2026 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects
by ravensfan3 on Jan 18, 2026 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 19, 2026 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Casey Crosby
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:31 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 and name here for anyone not listed
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:31 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1 Grant Green
This is a really hard spot for me. But I think Green’s premium position and raw abilities give him the go. I don’t think I would argue Starlin Castro over Green, but this is my vote.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 18, 2026 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
by FrankCohen on Jan 19, 2026 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+2
Norris should be on here around now given the numbers he put up.
It’s almost like he has Carlos Santana syndrome. Sure he has some work to do on the defensive side, but the bat is elite and most scouts seem to think with enough hard work he can in fact stick at C. He just seems to get constantly underrated.
by guru4u on Jan 19, 2026 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Curious what you mean by this
Do you think Moore is closer to #50-60?
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that's a good range. Not in this discussion, anyway.
by PissedMick on Jan 18, 2026 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 for Moore
I’d love to hear the justification for considering him in the 50-60 range. BA had him in their top 50 at midseason, while he was still running a BB/9 near 6. Very few prospects raised their stock more in the second half of the 2009 season than Matt Moore. He threw 57.1 innings with a 11.9 K/9 and cut his BB rate down to 3.8/9 in the process. How, exactly, do you justify believing Moore’s stock has actually gone down?
He’s the best arm in the minors at missing bats. If he sustains his step forward in control next season his upside is as high as any pitcher in the minors not named Strasburg or Chapman (and I’m not sold on Chapman’s upside, personally - Moore’s could be higher).
by slamcactus on Jan 18, 2026 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
BA's midseason list included zip from the 2009 draft.
And it’s pretty hard to argue for Moore being on the high end of that unranked 25-50 group. He did raise his stock in the second half of 2009, but a bunch of new guys with similar/higher ceilings and much better floors are now ahead of him..
Let’s see Moore throw his first High-A pitch before we start talking about him in the better end of a top 100 list.
by PissedMick on Jan 19, 2026 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how many from the draft are going to be in the top 50?
maybe 5-6 plus Chapman?
I don’t see how the HS pitchers from the 09 draft are going to have higher floors than Moore…. ?
A- they haven’t pitched a full season yet
B- Moore’s ridic K rates indicate that at the least, he could be a damn good relief guy
C- Moore’s control is trending in the right direction, we don’t even know all the nicks/downsides to all the 09 draftees yet
by daveh33 on Jan 19, 2026 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
trending in the right direction
well, inter-season, yes, his control improved in the second half, but small sample really. Year to year, no, it didn’t trend up. I do like Moore, though. I have him ahead of Turner, for example.
by wobatus on Jan 19, 2026 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're forgetting the prospects who have jumped Moore...
like Westmoreland, Carter, Gordon, Crosby, Castro, Hudson, Norris, and Britton, along with draftees Strasburg, Ackley, Chapman (not a draftee, but you get it), and all the high school pitchers who don’t have Moore’s A-ball experience but do have significantly better scouting pedigrees.
That group has easily canceled out any prospect-list helium Moore’s small-sample control gains gave him.
by PissedMick on Jan 19, 2026 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ooh! Fun game!
First, the only player on that list I’d rather have than Moore is Westmoreland.
Second, I love how you present these guys as unarguably better. I’d absolutely love to hear your defense of Zach Britton > Matt Moore, either based on performance, stuff, upside, or any other metric available. Should be good for a long chuckle. I can at least see the argument for some of the other guys you listed (though I think ranking Hudson > Moore is similarly laughable, he’s at least significantly closer to the majors).
Third: Castro and Norris were on the midseason list, so at best, you have 6 guys new guys (2 of which I think are laughable, the other 4 arguable). Matt LaPorta and Tillman have graduated, taking 2 more away. Congratulations. You’ve managed to add a net of 4 guys maximum to the list (though I’d say maybe 2) who have leapfrogged Moore.
Fourth: guys on that list who have dropped out of consideration for top-50 status: Lars Anderson, Tim Beckham, Tim Alderson, Austin Jackson, Mike Moustakas, Jason Knapp, Brad Holt, Eric Hosmer, Esmil Rogers, Nick Weglarz, and (in my opinion) Jarrod Parker. There are others (personally I think Ben Revere’s stock has slipped quite a bit since midseason, and I’d rank Moore significantly higher than Arrieta, among others), but I was trying to be conservative by listing only the no-brainer guys whose stock has fallen quite a bit since early July.
So, you added 6 guys to the list of 50, in addition to 2 draftees and 1 international signing. 2 of those 9 were already on the list. 2 of the original 50 are no longer eligible, and 10+ of them have backslid since the list was published. Not to mention, Moore’s stock has shot up considerably since the list was published. Including your additions, there are 45 prospects left standing.
Your analysis here is just bad.
by slamcactus on Jan 19, 2026 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not gonna argue for Westmoreland being below Moore
because I know its futile, but how did he “jump” Moore in the 2nd half?
He wasn’t playing in the first couple months [when Moore was struggling] because of injury, then he played and did well, but in short season ball, while being only 10 months younger than Moore, who was dominant in the 2nd half of his full-season league.
I just don’t see how he jumps so far in 223 short-season ABs
by daveh33 on Jan 19, 2026 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
he’s not clear-cut, but Westmoreland’s a great prospect, so I won’t argue that one. His 100% SB success rate is damn impressive to me. He’s pretty much exactly what you want to see from an OF prospect. If he sustains anything like his ‘09 numbers in full-season ball next year I think he’s a top-10 guy. That said, if Moore sustains his BB-rate under 4 next year, he’s probably a top-15 guy for me, too.
by slamcactus on Jan 19, 2026 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice try...
there are 2 guys from the draft currently listed. How many more are going to be in the next 20? Not a single one is on the poll yet, and only Grant Green is in the tester pool.
There are also 2 guys on the list who’ve graduated since mid-season (LaPorta and Tillman).
by slamcactus on Jan 19, 2026 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Question
We’ve been giving players 2 rounds on the poll and if they get 5% on at least one of them they stay on. Should we change that to 5% minimum on every poll, meaning guys could drop off after only one round on the poll? I don’t want to do something that takes good candidates off the poll too early but I also want to get some new blood in here more frequently. We could also do 2 rounds for new candidates and only 1 round for someone who had been on the poll previously and fell off. For example after last round Jordan Lyles and Dee Gordon would have dropped off because they’ve been on the poll before but didn’t get 5% on the #29 poll.
What does everyone think here?
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 5:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
How about this?
Maybe if they fail to get 5% in/after their second poll they are off for 2-3 rounds?
With this wording, the first time players get their 2nd chance while the players who are holding spots unnecessarily (Gordon) free up the spot for someone else.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 18, 2026 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gordon
I think he belongs in this conversation. I’d definitely rank him ahead of someone like Freddie Freeman, Brett Wallace or Dan Hudson
by jar75 on Jan 18, 2026 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Under my proposed system
Hudson would have been out of the conversation along with Gordon although Freeman and Wallace would still remain.
The point is that it is unlikely a player who receives less than 1/20 of the vote will gain enough backing in 2-3 rounds to win it. It is safe to take that player off the poll and open the discussion to others like Matzek, Green, etc.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 18, 2026 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
are you saying if they draw less than 5% on either poll they’re off, so a guy that draws 5% and then 3% on his first two polls would drop off after poll #2 but a guy that draws 3% the first time would drop? Or are you saying just guys that have been on the poll previously fall off as soon as they draw less than 5%? Right now a player has to draw less than 5% in two consecutive polls to drop off the ballot, so a guy could draw 5%, 3% and 5% and stay on currently.
Sorry if that doesn’t come across as clear as it is in my head. We seem to have guys yo-yoing in the polls right now, like Dan Hudson that has drawn 5.8%, 7.4%, and 4.7% over the last three polls. I don’t want to see a guy dropped off then have people clamoring for him the next round. If a guy is off for 2-3 rounds but there is a good amount of vocal support for him I put him back on quickly(Alonso is the most recent example). That’s one reason why I wish people would use the “other” option any time they prefer someone not on the poll, instead of saying +1 to someone but vaguely saying they like 4 or 5 other guys better. Without seeing names and a good amount of support, it’s hard to know whether I should cycle a certain player in/back on or not. I’m just trying to figure the best way to have the best candidates on each time.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 18, 2026 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like the system
although more could be done to stress that people should vote for the “not on the poll” option, and shouldn’t shy away from doing so as others have said.
Keep it that they are on for 2 rounds and need 5% in either one, but remove them if there are players in the “other option” poll who are getting more votes.
I’d either do that, or cut the bottom two players off every round for 2 rounds before bringing them back on. That’d be simple and is a passable solution. We would go in order on the tester list, and if someone got more votes in the other option than on the normal poll they would automatically get on the real ballot for next round.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 18, 2026 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
1 round testers
Yes, I would prefer 1 round testers. Making it 2 rounds just means it takes longer for more deserving candidates to get back on. As we get farther along here, and there get to be more reasonable options at each spot, it is going to get harder to get guys back on after 3 rounds. I’d like to see maybe the top half dozen guys kept on, but 5-6 new names (or names who haven’t been on for a few) cycled in on each poll.
If a guy doesn’t have the 5% vote, he’s not likely to win the next poll either. Waiting just a few polls instead might be enough for him to have a chance.
by acerimusdux on Jan 19, 2026 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matzek
I would have voted for him if he had been included in this poll. I wrote him in last round, but that’s kind of pointless.
Of those on the poll, I like Turner the most.
by jar75 on Jan 18, 2026 5:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
not pointless
as it gets people on the poll earlier
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 18, 2026 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think mentioning him gets the point across and that way I can still vote for the best option on the board. I gave him the plus one last round, but it was more of a wasted vote than anything else.
by jar75 on Jan 18, 2026 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Derrick Norris
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Jan 18, 2026 6:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tester
Donovan Tate
Raw as hell, but massive upside, tools, et al. If guys like Jacob Turner are getting consideration for the poll, I’d think Tate should as well. I see him as more of a special talent than Matzek or Turner, and neither of the three have had any pro experience yet. I think he’s definitely in the top 40, which means it’d be time for him to hit the polls soon.
I’d take him over most of the guys currently on the poll or testers (all but the exception of Stewart, Norris, Wallace, Alonso, and Chacin).
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Jan 18, 2026 6:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
definatley think its time for Tate to start getting consideration as a tester
like him over Kalish/Reddick/Lawrie/Saunders/I. Davis/Frazier/etc.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 18, 2026 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
those guys
are too early as well i think.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 18, 2026 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why Turner over Lyles?
Lyles has #2 upside, right? He also dominated the Sally league last year.
Turner has #1 upside, but has shown us what in pro ball?
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 18, 2026 6:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You obviously don't understand upside.
The further away a guy is, the more upside he has—i.e. the better a prospect he is.
by PissedMick on Jan 18, 2026 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand the concept of upside.
I get he is young and obviously talented, with the potential to be a true number one. However, Lyles also has a high upside, even if it’s not as high as Turners. Lyles is not much older and has proven to be one of the best young pitchers in the minors against his fellow minor leaguers. Turner has not. This is a list of top prospect—as a whole—not top ceilings.
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 18, 2026 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i would have a bunch of other teenage arms ahead of Turner as well
Matzek and Moore, who aren’t even on the poll right now
by daveh33 on Jan 18, 2026 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would vote both of those and Lyles above Turner.
Montgomery as well and Crosby.
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 18, 2026 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lyles
I don’t think there is a consensus with what you are saying there Byron. Based on what I have read, Lyles put together an amazing season despite less than dominating “stuff”. Guys that dominate the low minors with control rather than stuff tend to get lit up when they move up the ladder (see Tim Alderson for a very extreme example). I really do not think Lyles has a #2 upside just based on what he throws and the velocity. He’s probably more of a #3 or 4.
by guru4u on Jan 19, 2026 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he is more of a stuff guy than a pitchability guy
He certainly has a good feel for pitching so he isn’t pure stuff boom/bust type, but his stuff is much more impressive than his feel. i would agree he is more likely a very good #2 type than a #1, and might end up as a #3, but he is a pretty solid prospect. honestly it was tough for me to decide between all the pitchers. I think Casey Kelly might be the best of the bunch, but Lyles is certainly arguable here as well. I think for the next 10 or so polls, the majority of people will not like whoever wins, as was seemingly the case with Mejia last round (who was chosen by more than a few because he was the best of two poor choices). If Alonso or Turner or Hudson (who are leading now) win (or Lyles or anyone else probably), most people will not be fans of that player making it. There is a wide divergence of opinions and not all that much separating the 30th-50th spot in this ranking.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 19, 2026 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tester...
I wouldn’t vote for him over Matt Moore, but Josh Bell should go in the tester pool at some point. I prefer him to Wallace, and probably Chisenhall, too (Chisenhall really doesn’t do it for me - his prospect status still baffles me).
by slamcactus on Jan 18, 2026 9:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1 on Bell>Wallace
-1 on Bell>Chiz
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 19, 2026 2:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
again, I really, really disagree with the masses on Chisenhall. So much so that I fail to even begin to comprehend his prospect ranking. Sometimes I just have to accept the fact that other people see something I don’t. Sometimes I’m right, but then again, I was the same way about Grady Sizemore, and that one didn’t turn out well for me.
by slamcactus on Jan 19, 2026 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Bell goes on as a tester
then Darnell and Dominguez should as well. I’d take both of them a decent amount ahead of Bell
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 18, 2026 9:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
but,
I don’t think I have any of those three in my top 50.
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 18, 2026 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bell is further along than both
and is probably the more balanced prospect.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 18, 2026 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Darnell is by far the most balanced of them all
Bell has huge questions about his defense, at best he projects to be below average, I’d hardly call that balanced.
I haven’t gotten that far in my top 50, but I think Darnell and Dominguez will be borderline top 50 guys for me.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 19, 2026 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bell has reportedly made large strides in defense
fwiw.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 19, 2026 1:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thats good
because before the season he was destined for 1B. Now he will probably be a below average 3B, the question is in no way answered.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 19, 2026 8:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it is a given that he will be below average on defense
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2009/268713.html
It’s worth also noting that Bell’s glovework impressed Southern League managers, a group that voted him the best defensive third baseman in the league.
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/11/15/afl-rundown-week-5
Josh Bell has gained a lot of followers this year because of his bat. And while he has gotten some good marks for his defense, I wanted to see it for myself. The verdict: it’s exceptional. Bell demonstrated an impressive arm as well as good footwork and agilily. I’ve seen him make plays to his right, effectively charge balls, and flash soft hands
by jibs on Jan 19, 2026 8:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Should be fun
Once Bell and Dominguez get on the poll. Seems like the Bell supporters and haters feel very strongly about their respective positions.
I am with you Jibs - those that are downgrading Bell based on his D are still stuck on 2008 data and almost treating it as if 2009 never happened.
Here is what KG had to say on Bell:
As much as Bell improved at the plate in 2009, he made even larger strides defensively. Once seen as a future first baseman, Bell has made significant improvement in his instincts and footwork at the hot corner, while his arm has always been a plus. In an age where many players focus solely on the batting cage, Bell’s commitment to defense also speaks to his makeup.
by guru4u on Jan 19, 2026 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also in that write up was:
He’s done an excellent job maintaining his condition over the last two years, but it will always be something that needs attention for him to stay at third base.
I don’t see why I should just disregard the possibility that he ends up at first. He took big steps towards staying at third this year, but I don’t see him as a potential plus defender or anything like that.
by jar75 on Jan 19, 2026 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True
But KG could say that about every prospect in baseball. If Starlin Castro doesn’t stay in shape, he can’t stick at SS. If Dustin Ackley can’t stay in shape, he won’t play CF.
Should you disregard that possibility? Of course not. But I think the likelihood, at least in the first 5 years or so of Bell’s career, is much less than what you and others make it out to be.
by guru4u on Jan 19, 2026 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am another Bell doubter
He fit into my top 60, but I want to see another year of positive reports on his defense before moving up any higher. I’m cautiously optimistic he can keep it up, but I need to see more than one year of it to truly believe.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 19, 2026 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Its a bigger concern for a big kid like Bell
by alskor on Jan 19, 2026 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
run-off nets 2 prospects no?
Does it not stand to reason that if the winner of the run-off is the next prospect on the list then the run-odd loser should be the one after that? Seems kind of unnecessary to place Alonso’s name back in the pool after that ..no?
by nordica on Jan 18, 2026 11:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily
I remember a year or two ago, someone came in second place like 10 polls in a row. Can’t remember who, but he had a small following of people who really liked him, but they couldn’t convince others to join the bandwagon.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 19, 2026 12:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I said it before...
I don’t like Yonder coming off the board right now. I don’t feel he has the offensive upside to be in this area.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 18, 2026 11:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
same
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 19, 2026 2:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Check out the wOBAs of Youkilis and Votto...
and then explain to me why a guy has to hit 30 HR a year to be an elite hitter.
by PissedMick on Jan 19, 2026 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
rate stats vs counting stats
Both were on pace for over 30 HRs had they reached 650+ plate appearances.
by jibs on Jan 19, 2026 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In the combined 8 years those two players have spent in the majors...
only once was 650 PAs topped, by Youk in 2006. In fact, I know 650 PAs makes your point real nice, but only 40 players reached that number last year.
On a similar note, Willie Bloomquist was on pace for over 30 HRs had he reached 3511 PAs in 2009.
by PissedMick on Jan 19, 2026 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You think Alonso is a .400+ wOBA player? It’s certainly a possibility, but I’m not going to bank on him being anywhere near that good offensively. He gets downgraded because he’s a first baseman and will have to be a force offensively to be an above average regular.
by jar75 on Jan 19, 2026 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.399 in FSL
along with scouts opinion suggest that he could be a .400+ wOBA player.
by wobatus on Jan 19, 2026 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course I don't think he is.
Do I think he could be? Of course. He has a history of ELITE plate discipline and power. The argument was that Yonder didn’t have the offensive upside to be this high. He obviously does, when hitters with very similar styles are among baseball’s top-10 hitters.
by PissedMick on Jan 19, 2026 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
History?
Alonso’s minor league BB% is 12.6%. Before this season, he had accumulated all of 25 PAs in professional baseball.
His plate discipline is good, certainly, but if Alonoso’s 12.6% BB-rate over 365 minor-league PAs qualifies as a “history of elite plate discipline,” the standards for both “elite” and “history” have gone down quite a bit.
by slamcactus on Jan 19, 2026 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
college
His college walk/k rate was pretty amazing. And yes, it is college, but ACC is pretty high up there.
by wobatus on Jan 19, 2026 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
Kyle Russell’s college walk-rate was astronomical, too, and the Big-12 is usually stronger than the ACC. Nobody will ever say that Kyle Russell has a “good eye.” He may swing at nothing, but he doesn’t have a good eye. The difference between MOTO hitters on good teams and the rest of the lineup is way more pronounced in college than pro ball (it’s the precise reason why Bryan Smith started segmenting out results against 3-4-5 hitters in weekend series as a better predictive stat for college numbers). Good hitters get pitched around, and the resulting stats mean absolutely nothing. Even in a good conference.
by slamcactus on Jan 19, 2026 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that's a reasonable comparison:
Kyle Russell: AB-589 BB-104 K-179
Yonder Alonso: AB-665 BB-172 K-103
by PissedMick on Jan 19, 2026 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You...
can use hundreds of examples. College BB-numbers are beyond meaningless. They don’t inform a guy’s history at all.
by slamcactus on Jan 20, 2026 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about 1.7:1 BB:K rates?
Try to spin it how you want, Alonso put up numbers that no other comparable amateur player could match. Maybe you’re right though, and he just did a great job fooling all the teams that had him as a top-5 (or better) college hitter in 2008.
by PissedMick on Jan 20, 2026 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He...
was a great college hitter. That doesn’t mean his college stats mean anything. There’s no need to spin anything: anyone who thinks that college numbers mean anything at all is making judgments on a fundamentally flawed assumption.
by slamcactus on Jan 20, 2026 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, we're not going only on college numbers.
We’re also going on the evaluation by major league clubs that he was one of the best hitters in the draft. The stats only back it up.
by PissedMick on Jan 20, 2026 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure.
He’s a good hitter. I was taking issue with the idea that he has a “history of elite discipline.” His minor league walk rate is good, but not elite, and his entire “history” worth evaluating is 1 season + a few games last year.
by slamcactus on Jan 20, 2026 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, it’s a possibility. There’s also a possibility that his career emulates Sean Casey’s. He has a few really great offensive years followed by some more where he’s merely solid. I have a hard time projecting him as a future Youkilis or Votto.
The thing that hurts Alonso, like it hurts Freddie Freeman, Logan Morrison, et al, is that his position will force him to be exceptional with the bat to be valuable.
by jar75 on Jan 19, 2026 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Poll Update
Y. Alonso - 20
D. Hudson - 11
J. Turner - 10
F. Freeman - 5
S. Castro - 4
B. Wallace - 3
C. Crosby - 3
J. Lyles - 3
D. Norris - 2
M. Moore - 2
J. Chacin - 2
Drops in popularity for a lot of these guys is surprising. Definatley people are close, but alot of of vote changing it seems. Guys like Gordon and Chacin who were getting some votes in past rounds seem to have fallen down in favor of guys like Hudson, Turner, and Freeman.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 19, 2026 12:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Time zones may have something to do with it
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 19, 2026 12:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
um hello?
Put Casey Kelly on the list!!!
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 19, 2026 2:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
he and Tazawa need to be on soon!
by PissedMick on Jan 19, 2026 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tazawa?
You nuts?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 19, 2026 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's just mocking Kelly
Kelly is a great prospect.
by alskor on Jan 19, 2026 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No sir, I'm not.
I really like the athleticism, elite pitchability, and command of several pitches at a young age/experience level that Tazawa has. He’s just like a slightly older, more experienced Kelly, and many agree with me when I say that Kelly should be on already.
by PissedMick on Jan 19, 2026 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sincere apologies then.
I also feel Kelly should be on already and Tazawa is definitely top 100 for me, as well (though latter part of it).
by alskor on Jan 19, 2026 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I'm just joshin'
I can never keep a straight face.
No disrespect though—even though I’m being snarky about it, I understand your case and think you’ve got a better handle on things than most.
by PissedMick on Jan 19, 2026 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
About here
Really, Casey Kelly, Freddie Freeman, and Donovan Tate are probably the next three guys I want to vote for, assuming Alonso wins this. Also like Hudson, Chacin, and Wallace as more polished near ready guys, but not much else on the current poll.
by acerimusdux on Jan 19, 2026 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alonso vs Wallace
well this is moot by now as it seems Alonso is a lock to get on. I haven’t voted for either yet as I like a few pitchers and premium position players ahead of these two. But looking at the numbers Wallace has been slightly better than Alonso. There career minor league OPS is .001 different (.836 vs .837) while Wallace has don’t that with most of his bats coming in AA and AAA. While the majority of Alonso’s AB’s have been below AA. Alonso has shown to be weak against lefties while Wallace has shown to be very capable. I don’t see how a young promising SS like Starlin Castro is not a better prospect than both of these guys….but thats just me who prefers the rare SS who can hit and field his position to your typical 1B.
by JJACK on Jan 19, 2026 10:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Alonso and lefties
He has 71 at bats against lefties in his minor league career. He has 13 walks and 15 strikeouts in that time. I think its a bit early to say he has shown to be weak against them.
by dougdirt on Jan 19, 2026 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
higher k rate
lower walk rate (Alonso versus Wallace). Not much difference but it is there. If you look at their college numbers, Alonso had a much higher walk rate. And he went 6 spots higher in the draft. Plus Alonso had the hamate injury last year, so his power was down a little. Duly noted on the platoon split issue.
As for castro, stay at ss and have the ISO match the scout comments and I am sure he will be up there. Next year maybe it’ll look like a joke he is behind these “typical” 1Bs, but for right now I don’t have a problem with it. He could also stand to walk a little more but he doesn’t strike out all that much.
by wobatus on Jan 19, 2026 12:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Castro
that last post was meant as a reply to JJack’s post.
Adding to my castro thoughts. He obviously gets a lot more love from scouts than Ruben Tejada of the Mets, and I can understand that, since his power ptential seems much higher. But if you go strictly by the stat lines in AA there wasn’t that much difference. Castro played only about 1/5th of the season in AA, tejada a full year. About the same age, Tejada being a few months older. He is supposed to be a plus fielder. Yet Castro some people seem to believe should be top 25 or so, or certainly by now, yet tejada I doubt will sniff the top 100 or even 200.
I do get the Castro has more upside, and yet Tejada is treated as utility man at best. Tejada is blocked, but i think he could play ss. Castro you hear different things. If the Cubs decide to go with Lee yet castro could play ss, I wouldn’t ding him for that. The question to me is, if he fills out would he be a capable ss. Will he reach that power upside and yet maintain his ss skills?
by wobatus on Jan 19, 2026 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jacob Turner?
Has Turner actually done anything to improve his stock since draft day? I’m wondering if there’s really any reason he would now be ahead of Donovan Tate.
by acerimusdux on Jan 19, 2026 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lets just stop making prospect lists and go by draft order
by alskor on Jan 19, 2026 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
draft order?
How about every prospect ranking I saw heading into draft day?
Have there been better reports since?
by acerimusdux on Jan 19, 2026 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve had Turner ahead of Tate for quite a while. Also, Tate just got into that ATV accident which could cause those that did have Tate higher to drop him a bit.
I had Matzek above both of them though (#3 overall), and he’s my ideal selection at #30.
by jar75 on Jan 19, 2026 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I liked Matzek as well
Though, I don’t think we should ignore draft position and signing bonuses either. The fact that Turner got the big $5.5M bonus when the Tigers could have probably had Matzek in that spot for a bit less at least suggests that some pro scouts liked Turner better (and maybe even enough to put him in the discussion with Tate). So I do think Turner should probably be considered here, I’m just wondering what the case is from his supporters (seeing as he’s getting a pretty strong vote).
by acerimusdux on Jan 19, 2026 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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