Top 20 Shadow Twins Prospects
Top 20 Shadow Twins Prospects for 2010
As many of you know, I've been doing a Shadow Draft for the Minnesota Twins since 1996, building my own farm system. You can read about the background here, and here.
Here is how my current Shadow/Alternate Universe Twins system looks. Remember that this was built doing a parallel draft in real time with the real draft. For Latin American and foreign players, I just go with whoever the real Twins draft.
Top 20 Shadow Twins Farm System
1) Brett Lawrie, OF, Grade B+: Very happy with the bat so far, though I use him as an outfielder instead of a second baseman like the Brewers do.
2) Jared Mitchell, OF, Grade B: Great tools, draws walks, somewhat worried about the strikeouts, but a great ceiling.
3) Jay Jackson, RHP, Grade B: Sleeper guy from the '08 draft has developed excellently so far.
4) Michael Bowden, RHP, Grade B: Would have a chance at the Shadow Twins rotation for '10.
5) Wynn Pelzer, RHP, Grade B: Throws hard, gets grounders, need to see Double-A transition. Drafted him in the seventh round in '07.
6).Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Highest-ranked real Twin in my Shadow system.
7) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Grade B-: Very projectable, anxious to get some full-season data in '10.
8) Zack Van Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: I took a signability risk drafting him in the fifth round this year, so I'm very glad the Pirates got the deal done in real life. Takes some of the sting out of the Blue Jays not signing my second round pick, Jake Barrett.
9) Adrian Salcedo, RHP, Grade B-: Another real Twin.
10) Lars Anderson, 1B; Grade B-: My first round pick from 2006 has a lot to prove this year. He was looking like a brilliant choice over real Twin Chris Parmalee until a poor '09.
11) David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+: The real Twins drafted him in the 32nd round in '05 and I'm glad I stuck with that decision.
12) J. J. Hoover, RHP, Grade C+: My 10th round pick in '08 had a fine season in the Braves system in real life, great K/BB but need to see him higher than the Sally Leauge.
13). Danny Valencia, 3B, Grade C+: Another Real Twin.
14) Scott Barnes, LHP, Grade C+: Drafted in the fourth round in 2008 for my shadow system. In real life, had a great year with the Giants at San Jose, then traded to Cleveland. I have not traded him and he is still in my shadow system.
15) Miguel Sano, SS, Grade C+: Another Real Twin.
16) Eric Thames, OF, Grade C+: He can really hit but can't seem to stay healthy.
17) Carlos Ramirez, C, Grade C+: Like this former Arizona State star a lot, great skills and performance despite a bad-looking body.
18) Tim Smith, OF, Grade C+: I didn't trade him to the Royals like the Rangers did in real life.
19) Matt Bashore, LHP, Grade C+: Real Twins pick in the '09 draft that I agreed with and stuck with.
20) David Newmann, LHP, Grade C+: My third round pick from the '07 draft had a good season in the Rays system in real life.
OTHERS: Eric Cordier, RHP; Michael Fiers, RHP; Brian Friday, SS: Conor Gillaspie, 3B; Nick Greenwood, LHP; Nevin Griffith, RHP; Max Kepler, OF; Deangelo Mack, OF; Jeff Manship, RHP; Derek McCallum, 2B; Jon Meloan, RHP; Roy Merrit, LHP; Ryan Mount, 2B; Jordan Newton, C; Eamonn Portice, RHP; Ben Tootle, RHP; Dustin Richardson, LHP; Tyler Robertson, LHP; Charlie Ruiz, RHP; Damon Sublett, OF; Tom Stuifbergen, RHP; Matt Sulentic, OF; Rene Tosoni, OF; Pat Venditte, RHP-LHP; Kevin Whelan, RHP.
I like my depth in pitching, and the Lawrie-RF, Mitchell-CF slots the last two years help address what was a weakness previously. Right now I look thin up the middle infield, depending on what happens with Sano, and could use more offensive depth in general. Sticking with the real Twins foreign investments while making my own domestic draft picks seems to work well.
Keeping track of the Shadow system is fun, but it also forces me to focus on players before they get into pro ball. Guys like Jackson, Hoover, and Pelzer were on my radar before they were drafted as a result.
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10 comments
Comments
John, I’m going to ask you to go deep here. You only ranked 15 of my shadow prospects this year. So of the honorable mentions, who would you rank as the top five … or 16-20, if you will?
Kevin Ahrens, 3B; Kyle Bellamy, RHP; Trey Hearne, RHP; Jairo Heredia, RHP; Julio Izturis, 2B; Kevin James, LHP; Kenn Kasparek, RHP; Darin Mastroianni, OF; Brian Moran, LHP; Josh Prince, SS; Brady Shoemaker, OF; Mark Trumbo, 1B; Pat Venditte, RHP-LHP; Kevin Whelan, RHP.
by StickRat on Jan 21, 2026 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I still like the Lars Anderson pick
He will still have a much better career than most the guys available at that spot.
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
by maxisagod on Jan 21, 2026 10:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Even if he doesn’t, at the time it was a good pick. I think some readers forget that, some amazing prospects fail but that doesn’t necessarily make them bad picks because it could have easily went the other way given the potential.
by jfish26101 on Jan 21, 2026 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My Shadow Royals
Just the guys I drafted since 2006:
1. OF Jason Heyward
2. 1B Justin Smoak
3. P Aaron Crow
4. P Tim Melville
5. P Keyvious Sampson
6. P Sam Demel
7. P Jeff Manship
8. P Robbie Erlin
9. OF Isaac Galloway
10.C Carlos Ramirez
11.P Travis Banwart
12.P Chance Chapman
13.P Nick Hernandez
14.P Kyle Bellamy
15.P Stephen Wright
16.SS Tyler Ladendorf
17.P Ryan Sasaki
18.P Scott Maine
19.OF Jordan Henry
20.1B Luke Murton
Didn’t mean to draft so many relievers….but here we are.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 22, 2026 10:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if its a prospect-relevant question, but:
Do you keep track of what Shadow-Twins major league club looks like? Just curious about what the shadow system has graduated in terms of big-league talent…
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 23, 2026 4:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
10 B's and 10 C+'s
That’s a pretty good and pretty deep system. Though I wonder if it also may be evidence that you have a little inherent bias to guys you’ve “drafted”.
by ayjackson on Jan 23, 2026 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
eh
those are some pretty conservative grades in my opinion.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 23, 2026 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i guess your hypothesis would be
that he has a natural bias against those he follows more closely. a good hypothesis, to be sure. i only suggested the opposite because the system graded out high, not low.
by ayjackson on Jan 25, 2026 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
bias
Sure. Obviously I draft a player BECAUSE I like him.
However, I drafted Matt Torra in 2005 instead of Mike Garza. Torra got hurtl. I have lots of failures as well as success, and I’ve making all this public since 2003. I drafted Conor Gillaspie in 2008 and he’s just a Grade C.
But naturally, if I draft a player out of high school or college, it is because I like him. I try to be objective as I can about subsequent grades.
by John Sickels on Jan 23, 2026 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not meaning to be critical
but we all have a natural bias to players we follow more closely. i’m not sure that you do follow your shadow draftees with a keener eye or not, but it could explain an good grading. i cannot identify any obvious candidates that have been over-rated here though.
how has your system graded out in recent years?
by ayjackson on Jan 25, 2026 1:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs







