Prospect of the Day: Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs

by John Sickels on May 2, 2025 8:00 AM EDT

Mar 6, 2012; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Brett Jackson (59) at bat during the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at HoHoKam Park. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-US PRESSWIRE

Prospect of the Day: Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs fans await the arrival of top outfield prospect Brett Jackson. You will forgive them if they keep their enthusiasm on a low burn: they've heard the "future outfield star" stuff before. Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Ryan Harvey, David Kelton, Tyler Colvin. . .can Jackson succeed where others have failed? Let's take a look.

Brett Jackson wasn't drafted out of high school, but scouts were aware of him due to his athleticism. He was used as a reserve during his freshman year at the University of California in 2007, hitting .230/.382/.279 in 61 at-bats (note the high OBP), then took a regular job as a sophomore, hitting .307/.404/.441 in 202 at-bats. A strong Cape Cod League performance pushed him towards the top of draft lists entering 2009, and he backed that up with a .321/.410/.564 mark in 218 at-bats. His tools were considered worthy of a first-round selection, but his stock was harmed slightly by a high strikeout rate (61 whiffs) and he fell to the bottom of the round, 31^st overall, signing for $972,000.

Jackson began his career with a 5-for-11 three-game warmup in the Arizona Rookie League, then moved up to Boise in the Northwest League where he hit .330/.443/.398. Bumped up to Low-A Peoria for August, he unleashed his power by hitting seven homers in 26 games, also stealing 11 bases with an overall .295/.383/.545 line in 112 at-bats. He split 2010 between High-A Daytona (.316/.420/.517 in 67 games) and Double-A Tennessee (.276/.366/.465 in 61 games), combining for 12 homers and 30 steals along with 73 walks.

He returned to Tennessee for the first half of 2011, hitting .256/.373/.443 with 10 homers in 67 games, then moved up to Triple-A Iowa for the second half, hitting .297/.388/.551 with 10 homers in 48 games. He returned to Iowa to begin 2012 and is off to something of a slow start with a .236/.343/.416 mark in 22 games. Overall, in 318 minor league games Jackson is a career .288/.390/.485 hitter, including .277/.373/.507 with 42 walks but 92 strikeouts in 70 Triple-A contests.

As you can surmise from the numbers, Jackson has an intriguing mixture of power and speed. Listed at 6-2, 210, the 23-year-old left-handed hitter doesn't have a poor tool: all of his tools are at least average. His arm is his weakest asset, with average strength but good accuracy. His power would rank about 60 on the 20-80 scale. His speed is also in the 60-range, although he may lose some of that as he gets older. He is a skilled stealer and an efficient baserunner, stealing bases at a 76% success clip in his minor league career. Defense is also a strength: he has experience at all three outfield spots but his speed and arm work very well in center.

Jackson is usually a selective hitter and works counts, keeping his walk rate up, which helps maintain solid OBPs even when his batting average slips. His biggest problem is keeping a consistent swing. At his best, Jackson shows excellent bat speed and plus power, generated by a compact stroke with some uppercut. However, his swing gets long at times, leading to a high strikeout rate. He'll swing over changeups, although Jackson will punish a mistake in the zone even when his swing isn't working well.

Jackson's broad mix of abilities is enticing, but spending more time in Triple-A should help him refine his approach and avoid the failures of the prospects before him. If you are a pessimistic Cubs fan, it is true that his strikeout rate is high enough to be sabermetrically worrisome. It helps that he draws walks, which is something that his prospect predecessors didn't do.

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Read More: Corey Patterson (LF - STL), Felix Pie (LF - CLE), Tyler Colvin (RF - COL), David Kelton (CF - ATL), Brett Jackson (CF - CHC), Chicago Cubs

Comments

You forgot Felix Pie ;)

by Ari Berkowitz on May 2, 2025 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

Pie

Good one

by John Sickels on May 2, 2025 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

babip

He has always been a guy who has high babip numbers in the minor leagues. It comes with the profile of a nice power and speed combination, of course, but I wonder how that will hold up in the Majors. His career numbers of .288/.390/.485 look good now, but it’s a high wire act. Obviously the strikeout rate is the difference between a very good player and a marginal starter.

by richieabernathy on May 2, 2025 10:10 AM EDT reply actions

I don't see how you can say his K rate is going to be the difference between very good and marginal...

He does strike out more than anyone would like, but it’s not a number so high that it should hamper him as a major league player - it will simply hold him back from being a high BA player. Outside of 215 ABs last year, the highest his K rate has ever been at any level above rookie ball is 25.0%, which is high but not a massive concern. His K rate this year is around 26.5%, and that’s after a horrendous start to the year - he’s since gotten it back under control.

To go along with his elevated K rate, however, comes an elevated BB rate as well. He’s willing to wait on pitches he can drive, and that sometimes gets him into pitchers counts where he’ll K, but a lot of times it allows him to work deep into counts and get a mistake pitch to hammer or the opportunity to take a walk. Since 2012, he’s held steady with a walk rate around 13.5%.

Finally, he’s been holding an ISO in the .180-.200 range for the past 3 years, which would translate very well to a strong defensive center fielder.

I see no reason why he can’t be considered a very good major leaguer because of a 24-27% K rate (assuming it doesn’t improve at all). I think he can work with a line around .260/.360/.440 with plus defense in center for the time being. That’s more than a mediocre player in my opinion.

by bdlugz on May 2, 2025 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree

I guess my point is that any dip in power or walk rate (or obviously any spike in strikeout rate) once he faces the most-difficult competition in his life in the Majors could prove disastrous for his entire offensive profile.

by richieabernathy on May 2, 2025 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Well of course it would...

You can say that about any prospect ever. Even if his BB rate drops to 9-10% and his ISO drops to .150, which are pretty severe drops, you could look at a line similar to:

.260/.340/.410. If you can get a .750 OPS out of a plus defensive center fielder, I’d hardly call that marginal.

by bdlugz on May 2, 2025 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Now, if he has those numbers and is forced off center, you've got a legitimate point.

by bdlugz on May 2, 2025 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

How often do guys with poor K rates in the minors

improve significantly in the majors?

How often do they get worse?

He’s almost 24 years old, and he’s striking out badly at AAA. This isn’t exactly a case of “he’s just starting out, and it’ll get better.” This is more of a case of him just being a high strikeout batter, and he hasn’t even faced major league pitching yet. Good luck with that.

Wakefield
can close-just sayin
by calc on Apr 21, 2025 8:06 PM CDT reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on May 2, 2025 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I never said he would improve in the majors.. but it's not impossible to either

I said it’s improving this year from his horrible start (where he was at 32% for a bit), and it’s now down to around 26%. I think he’ll consistently be a 25-27% K guy in the majors.

He’s not 24 until August, so that’s still 3+ months away, and he’s not striking out so much that it looks like he can’t have any success in the major leagues. If you don’t like him as a prospect, that’s fine, but I just have a hard time believing that a high but not out of this world high K rate is going to hold him back from being a good player, especially when his high Ks also come with a very advanced plate approach.

by bdlugz on May 2, 2025 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

How many players with his K rate in the minors have panned out in the majors?

We’re talking about a worse K rate than BJ Upton and Adam Dunn here. He’s somewhat on par with Mark Reynolds.

All of those guys have certainly been between useful and great at times, but they all have serious issues at the plate, and those issues look like they might be even worse for Jackson.

Wakefield
can close-just sayin
by calc on Apr 21, 2025 8:06 PM CDT reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on May 2, 2025 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand that it's more difficult to be successful, but there aren't exactly a lot of cases similar to Jackson.

How many minor leaguers who strike our 25-27% of the time have a career .288 BA? He’s never going to hit for a high average, but he’s got plenty of other tools that can help him be successful at the major league level. He’s also going to be a plus defensive center fielder by all accounts, which means his value will not be solely at the plate like a Dunn or Reynolds.

You don’t like him as much as a prospect, and that’s fine. There are more than enough red flags to discuss, and I understand that. He’s definitely a high risk player, but I think after seeing him play that he’ll be successful at the next level. My personal opinion, take it for what it’s worth.

by bdlugz on May 2, 2025 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Adam Dunn career minor league avg: .304

BJ Upton career minor league avg: .295
Mark Reynolds career minor league avg: .280

I get that you’re a Cubs fan, but citing minor league numbers and seemingly assuming they will translate to the majors as roughly the same or will get better is pretty much only a best case scenario for guys who strike out like Jackson.

Wakefield
can close-just sayin
by calc on Apr 21, 2025 8:06 PM CDT reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on May 2, 2025 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I fail to see where I ever said that they would get better.

And Cubs fans shouldn’t be expecting a perennial all star in Jackson, he’s likely going to be a very good defensive center fielder with some offensive limitations, but I would expect some 3-4 WAR seasons out of him, even with his K rate struggles.

I feel like you’re taking my posts here the wrong way.

by bdlugz on May 3, 2025 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Not at all.

That sounds right on.

Wakefield
can close-just sayin
by calc on Apr 21, 2025 8:06 PM CDT reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on May 3, 2025 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Jackson seems to have a hole in his swing

If you’ve ever seen him swing a bat, it looks pretty obvious that his contact issues are directly related to that upper cut swing. He actually does have a good eye and power and speed that pitchers are going to have to respect. I don’t believe his walk rate will plummet because the reports are that he has a great eye.

It’s the contact rate that I’m worried about. I think BABIP will remain fairly above average for several seasons to come since he’s got some speed. I don’t know what the expected career trajectory is for a player who is both fast and has old baseball player skills (low average, high on-base, decent slugging). He’s kind of an enigma and not worth arguing over until we’re blue in the face until he’s seen some major league pitching. His .986 OPS in Spring Training certainly didn’t disappoint (of course that’s a small sample size and spring training).

by subtle on May 2, 2025 11:39 AM EDT reply actions