Updated Early 2012 MLB MOCK DRAFT

by xmlbscout on May 4, 2025 1:47 AM EDT

1.)Astros - Kevin Gausman, RHP - LSU (New ownership group and GM want an impact player that will move quickly in the system with the Astros and Gausman makes a lot of sense here, even though they love Buxton as well.)
2.)Twins - Mike Zunino, C - Florida
3.)Mariners - Mark Appel, RHP - Stanford
4.)Orioles - Byron Buxton, OF - Appling County HS, GA
5.)Royals - Marcus Stroman, RHP - Duke
6.)Cubs - Michael Wacha RHP - Texas A&M;
7.)Padres - Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco U
8.)Pirates - Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico HS Academy, PR
9.)Marlins - Lance McCullers, RHP - Jesuit HS, Tampa FL
10.)Rockies - Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll HS, Corpus Christi, TX
11.)Athletics - Deven Marrero, SS - Arizona State
12.)Mets - Albert Almora, CF, Mater HS, FL
13.)White Sox - Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty HS, FL
14.)Reds - Ty Hensley, Santa Fe HS, Oklahoma
15.)Indians - Andrew Heaney, LHP - Oklahoma St
16.)Nationals - Tyler Naquin, OF - Texas A&M;
17.)Blue Jays - Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe HS, LA
18.)Dodgers - Max Fried, LHP - Harvard-Westlake HS, CA
19.)Cardinals (from Angels for Pujols) - Chris Beck, RHP, Georgia Southern
20.)Giants - Lucas Sims, RHP - Brookwood HS, GA
21.)Braves - Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson
22.)Blue Jays (failed to sign Beede) - Steve Piscotty, RHP/3B/OF, Stanford
23.)Cardinals - Deven Marrero, SS - Arizona State
24.)Red Sox - Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi St
25.)Rays - Stryker Strahan, C-OF - Acadiana HS, Lafayette LA
26.)Diamondbacks - Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma St
27.)Brewers (from Tigers for Fielder) - Walker Weicker, RHP - Olympia HS, Orlando FL
28.)Brewers - Dylan Baker, RHP, Western Nevada CC (Dominating with fb in mid 90's and a late bloomer, hailing from Alaska)
29.)Rangers - Travis Jankowski, OF - Stony Brook
30.)Yankees - Lucas Giolito, RHP - Harvard-Westlake HS

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wow

Orioles - Byron Buxton, OF - Appling County HS, GA

Bundy, Buxton and Machado?

Wow. Just. Wow.

by JoelGuzman'sScout on May 4, 2025 2:44 AM EDT reply actions

Also

if Strahan, Weicker and GIOLITO are are available when the Braves pick, they’d think seriously about each of them, too.

The Fact that you have Giolito going to the Yankees is a bit, well, “interesting”.

by JoelGuzman'sScout on May 4, 2025 2:49 AM EDT reply actions

Giollito at 30

I think the bonus is too small. If he falls past the top 10, I think the chances of him signing are pretty slim.

by cookiedabookie on May 4, 2025 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Would the Yanks

be more willing than most to buck slot and pay the price than most? And take that as a question, not an implication. I do not pretend to grasp the ways that the CBA draft changes will play out.

by charles wallace on May 4, 2025 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

it would seem to me

That Giolito is the type of talent that a team might bite the bullet and pay the big $$$ to, consequences be damned, if he were to slip.

A healthy Giolito would be considered a top 3-5 talent in most drafts, wouldn’t he? Is that caliber of prospect worth a No. 30 pick and a to-be-determined pick (since it’s the Yankees, figure in the 25-30 range)?

I’ll be watching to see how many, if any, teams realize that if they’re willing to absorb the costs, they have an easy way to jump the talent acquisition curve. Even paying double isn’t really that much if it’s the difference between being able to trade for a young MLBer with a cost-controlled contract or having to settle for an expensive vet to fill a similar role. In fact, it might even end up being cheaper.

by mrkupe on May 4, 2025 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

The Yankees haven't been big spenders in the draft

They are usually right around average. IF they did take him, I would expect them to take a lot of low-cost college picks in rounds 2-10 to offset the cost and avoid the penalties. If they were willing to go crazy, great, but I actually think a team like the Red Sox are more likely to do so, given their draft spending history. So the question is, how diversified in risk do the Yankees want their draft stock to be? Giolito could be a great pick, but it is an awful lot in one basket if you take lower ceiling picks for the majority of the first ten rounds.

by cookiedabookie on May 4, 2025 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

you can get ceiling without spending a ton of money

You can even get high ceiling prep players without spending a ton of money. It comes down to smart scouting and jumping the consensus curve a bit.

If Giolito slips too far, though, I suspect the amount of money needed to sign him might push a team into the penalty zone regardless of what else they do in the draft. There hasn’t been a whole lot of talk about bonus demands, but I’m sure his asking price is enormous.

by mrkupe on May 4, 2025 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure I agree with your analysis

Signing draft picks on average is a positive expected value endeavour, but I’m not sure it would be under the new system if the strategy were to bust slot year in and year out. I’m assuming that signing a guy like Giolito would mean paying him like a top 5 pick or so (he’s got all the leverage assuming he’s happy to go to school), plus a 100% penalty on most of the bonus. Then, losing the picks the next year will decimate your pool, further increasing the penalties paid the next year. I’m admit to only looking at this in a preliminary manner, not in depth, but I don’t think it is a positive EV proposition.

That’s before considering what Bud Selig would do in retaliation, or at least try to do. You can bet that Bud would try to punish any team that blows up his system,

by MjwW on May 4, 2025 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

you lose one pick

Yeah, it increases your penalty for the next year. And then you blow slot again that year, losing your pick the next year. And so on, and so on. Large market teams would be crazy not to pay up, IMO. Prospects don’t just give a potential payoff in their own major league play, but prospects can be flipped for young cost-controlled talent that’s already at the major league level. Look at the Gio Gonzalez deal this off-season . . .Gio is probably better and definitely cheaper than a comparable non-controlled option. If spending the $$$ in the draft means the Yankees have the chips to trade for a Gio Gonzalez year in and year out, then that’s a deal they should take every time.

by mrkupe on May 4, 2025 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

But when you trade those prospects for controllable players, it’s a surplus value for surplus value exchange. The whole reason for spending on the draft (and previously going overslot) is that it has a positive expected present value, that is, the expected surplus value from the control years exceeds the signing bonus. If you impose a high enough tax - a negative externality - the positive expected value disappears. In other words, the present value of that surplus value, is equal to the value of the signing bonus and taxes. At that point, the team is indifferent between spending on the draft and free agents - neither have surplus value. In fact, they’re probably not indifferent since that tax money goes to other teams I believe. So the question is, is the tax high enough to do this (or even go beyond and create negative expected value, in which case busting slot is largely irrational but for possibly timing reasons)? My cursory glance at the numbers a while ago indicated that it’s definitely in that ballpark.

by MjwW on May 5, 2025 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions

you're not thinking it through far enough

blue bulldog has mentioned this before - the space limits of a roster mean that there is additional value to high-value players that is not totally captured by assigning a one-to-one relationship between a certain amount of a player value statistic (think WAR, I guess) and cost. I probably said that awkwardly, but basically: it makes a lot of sense to spend big on a 5-6 WAR/year player, more so than spending it on 2 2.5-3 WAR/year players.

Many organizations do not particularly care about being “efficient” so much as they care about having the best value-providing players on their major league team. Spending a pile of money in the draft can be balanced by cost-controlled major league returns, but the draft costs can also be balanced by the acquisition of high WAR players. We’ve seen organizations be technically inefficient with their free agency dollars for years, and yet these dollars buy value that gets success on the field.

The new draft system is a furthering of a financial model which rewards organizations for especially irrational financial decisions. Some irrationality is probably unavoidable - again, due to the finite number of players a team can put on the field - but yeah, it kind of sucks that this is a system that in the end can reward a team for those tendencies.

by mrkupe on May 5, 2025 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Well

Short version: My belief is that due to the pyramidal distribution of talent resulting from taking the right tail of the talent distribution, the theoretical roster constraints and playing time constraints are not actually binding constraints, and effectively two 2.5-3 WAR guys are worth 1 5-6 WAR guys. I’ve debated this point over at BBB extensively, and it’s one on which reasonable people can disagree, so I intend to leave it there. I get the sense you’ve thought about this long enough that I’m not going to change your mind, and vice versa, but if you’re further interested in my view I can point you towards where I’ve written this up over at BBB.

To your second paragraph, I’m not sure what exactly you’re saying. Teams so care about spending as efficiently as possible, they’re profit making businesses. If you can put a 95 win team on the field for $100M that’s far more preferable to putting a 95 win team on the field for $200M. The revenue economics, however, work such that for big market teams, it’s more profitable in the medium and long term (and usually the short term) to spend more on payroll to try and guarantee yourself a playoff team than to stop at a certain payroll and try to win within that payroll. That that still doesn’t change the fact that the cheaper you can put a similarly talented team on the field (efficiency), the better it is for the team, profitability wise. To the last sentence, teams generally don’t have enough cost-controlled talent to build a playoff team, so they go to the non-cost controlled market to buy wins at the free market rate. Bigger market teams buy more wins in this market, but don’t actually pay more per win. There’s nothing technically inefficient about that. I can point you to some research I did in this regard if you’re interested.

I don’t agree the system rewards irrationality, though that depends on your definition of irrationality. Without a cap, the economic structure is such that bigger market teams have a payoff to buying more wins, which means smaller market teams have had to resort to devoting more resources in the cost controlled market. This is entirely rational. The only way to really get around this to implement a cap, which is just a complete practical non-starter.

So, getting back to the draft - here is the point that I think you are missing that I am trying to make. Teams can buy talent in various ways. The most obvious is the free agent market, where the open market determines the value of a win. This is logically the reference point against which we measure the other methods. Another is the trade market. In the trade market, it’s value for value. A team can win a trade, but it’s a net zero sum game essentially (theoretically, if a team was really good at contract negotiation, they could trade players they signed to good contracts for a player without a longer-term deal, sign him to a favourable contract and create value, at the expense of the player. Practically, I can’t see this). Finally, there’s signing amateurs - IFAs, and giving out signing bonuses in the draft. Both of these, on a present value basis, have delivered positive expected value historically compared to free agents, which means that should have happened is that teams should have bid up the price of these players to where you are indifferent between spending in the draft, FA, IFA. Now, there are some strucutral impediments to this, such as angering Selig, the need for GMs to maintain a consistent winner now rather than plan for 5 years out when they may be fired, etc. But, we have been seeing this happen - IFA spending has been exploding, and draft bonuses have bene going upwards, driven by smaller and mid market teams (KC, Washington, Pittsburgh, Toronto, etc). That said, there’s more uncertain these markets than FA market, so we should probably never have expected the costs to exactly be equivalent - with amateurs, there’s a lot more uncertainty and risk, and so you should pay below the expected value.

So, the new slotting/taxing regime is basically intended to stop the ascent of those prices, by locking in the current surplus values, most of which occur - on average, in the long run - at the top of a draft, and accrue to the worst teams. The tax creates a wedge between what you pay and what you get, and reduce the surplus value - the larger the tax, the lower surplus value. Now, you argue that the ability to get a premium talent negates this, but even if this is the case, we can substitute a non linear utility-to-WAR model. If doesn’t change the basic logic - the higher the tax, the lower the payoff. If the tax, even on a utility basis (that rewards getting MLB star players over average MLB players), is high enough, it destroys the incentive to spend in that market, beyond your allocation (where there is positive expected value). So the question is, is the tax high enough to prevent this?

Finally, and I alluded to this below - there’s a basic logical hurdle you face in your claim that it’s logical to blow up the system. Why spend a ton more money busting slot now, when you weren;t doing it before and the payoff was highher? Now, you have to pay the tax now, and the type of high ceiling HS players who you need to get under this strategy have more leverage than ever? If teams weren;t doing it then, why now, with a much lower payoff?

by MjwW on May 5, 2025 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

to keep my answer short

The payoff may actually be much greater than it was before, for the simple reason that very few if any teams (at least initially) are likely to spend beyond the soft limit. Being able to spend money on young talent that can be played at the major league level or flipped in trades for players who can be played at the major league level while your competitors either can’t or won’t is a massive competitive advantage.

Yes, organizations would rather spend $100M for a winner than $200M for a winner - but given the choice between spending and winning or not spending and not winning, organizations are going to opt to spend to win, Jeffrey Loria-owned orgs notwithstanding.

As for your question about the tax, I don’t know the answer obviously, but I am skeptical. The financial penalty really isn’t that severe, and the draft pick(s) loss is largely inconsequential because a team can just spend in later rounds.I’d rather pay the money to be able to bring in a Casey Kelly if it means the difference between getting or not getting an Adrian Gonzalez in a trade.

by mrkupe on May 5, 2025 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

You lose more than that

If you go only slightly over, you only lose one pick. But if you go 15% over you lose 2 first round picks.

I don’t think it’s going to be worth it for a team to do this in every draft. I don’t think enough talented players are always going to fall to offset the lack of any high picks.

But I could see a team doing it in a strong draft class. You would have to sign multiple guys though to make it worth it, since you are hurting future drafts. But get 4-6 “overslot” guys in one year, and maybe that’s a viable strategy.

by acerimusdux on May 5, 2025 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

okay, but hear me out

What if you just say screw it, we won’t ever have a first round draft pick again . . .but the rest of our guys, we can spend on to our heart’s content.

Once you start losing picks the cost in terms of future draft picks lost is diminished, especially given the pressing need for a GM and his crew to field a winning team. If you lose 2 picks this year and therefore won’t have a 1st rounder again until 2015, wouldn’t that make you more inclined to violate the spending limit again next year? I’m assuming lost picks carry over (that is, you can’t lose the same pick twice), so you’d then lose the 2015 and 2016 picks and wouldn’t have a first rounder again until 2017 . . .that is an eternity in baseball, and no GM in his right mind would care about those picks in the years 2012 and 2013.

by mrkupe on May 5, 2025 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

One thing I wonder though

If a team were to do this for a couple years, and they lost first round picks so that they could not lose any further first round picks in that year, is that MLB might substitute another punishment instead, though I have no idea what it would be.

Also, I think you have to consider two other things. First, if a team does this, it’s pretty clear to the individual players, and gives them a ton of leverage. If the team fails to sign the player, they end up with almost no talent infusion, so the players can hold out for the moon in terms of a bonus. Second, most importantly, when there was no hard slot, even the biggest money teams didn’t go crazy spending a ton of money (something like $10M year in year out) when there was no penalty. So why would they do it now when they don’t get the bang for the buck due to tax?

by MjwW on May 5, 2025 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I could see The Yankees...use and abuse MrKupe's "theory"

i mean they’ll be picking 20-30 in round 1 every year anyway.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 6, 2025 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Marrero

You have Marrero at 11 and 23.

by WheatBread on May 4, 2025 3:38 AM EDT reply actions

And Heaney twice as well

by acerimusdux on May 4, 2025 5:30 AM EDT up reply actions

He's that good

by Woodland League on May 4, 2025 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Hensley

I’ve been seeing him as a good bet for first round, but that’s the highest I’ve seen anyone have him drafted. As a Reds fan that’s definitely intriguing. Have you seen him this year, X, and what are you hearing from your colleagues?

by charles wallace on May 4, 2025 9:47 AM EDT reply actions

Wacha

Interesting that you would see the Cubs taking Wacha over Zimmer with the interest that’s been reported about the Cubs and Zimmer. I like what Wacha’s doing though. If he can get with a pitching coach that can work on that curve, he should have a nice downward breaking pitch from his release point. Then he’s got a plus change, plus FB and a decent curve. He’s been a work horse too.

by Woodland League on May 4, 2025 10:09 AM EDT reply actions

And they've shown more interest in Fried as well.

I don’t see any way they’d pass on Zimmer, Gio, Fried or Correa for Wacha, but who knows.

by bdlugz on May 4, 2025 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

interesting pick for the Rays

Considering that they’ll probably be watching the $$$ as much as anybody out there, I’m thinking that they’re going to respond to the new reality by sitting on their strength - which is looking out West.

Dylan Baker looks exactly like the type of player the Rays would be all over, assuming he is still on the board at that point.

by mrkupe on May 4, 2025 11:13 AM EDT reply actions

Braves

I would love to see the Braves take Shaffer, but I think that he will be gone by then. I do think that they will take a college player….I wonder if they would gamble on Roache….

by Stephen in the UAE on May 4, 2025 1:36 PM EDT reply actions

James Ramsey

Another name they might be in on, and should sign under-slot.

by dbreer23 on May 4, 2025 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

XMLB-Love your posts and I’m a Cardinals fan. So who do you have the Cardinals taking seeing as Marreo can’t be taken at 23?

by scadder21 on May 4, 2025 6:52 PM EDT reply actions

Stroman

I might just go off the deep end if KC picks him at 5

by killa on May 4, 2025 9:22 PM EDT reply actions

what don't you like about him

i haven’t really been following the draft much yet other than the top (TOP) guys.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on May 6, 2025 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

well, not speaking for killa....

but IMO, he’s a bit of a max effort guy in that like Sonny Gray (who slipped mightily last year right before draft time)
gets the most out of what he physically has.

I mean don’t get me wrong, i like Stroman, but at #5 overall if i was a K.C. fan i woudlnt’ like it either, despite him having #2-#3 STARTER upside.

But what if he’s Arodys Vizcaino?

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 6, 2025 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

How does it blow up the system if someone falls only because of an injury. I see it as trying to game the system if its for someone like Wineston but Giolito if he wasn’t injured would be Top 5 guaranteed.

by scadder21 on May 4, 2025 10:08 PM EDT reply actions

Marrero & Heaney duplicates

Yeah, I errored when copying and pasting from my web page, I had slotted other players previously in those spots where Marrero & Heaney were, at 23, Cards to take Jake Barrett from Arizona State, reliever type stamina, power arm and 3 pitch arsenal, at 26 for D-Backs, they go with Ty Buttrey from Charlotte Providence HS.

Hensley I saw a little over a week ago, only 2 innings, he was 93-97, mostly 94 with movement in on RHH and sink when down, also hard uncle CHUCK that will be an out pitch at the next level, still working with the change, it’s effective currently but needs refining and that will come.

1.)Astros - Kevin Gausman, RHP - LSU (New ownership group and GM want an impact player that will move quickly in the system with the Astros and Gausman makes a lot of sense here, even though they love Buxton as well.)
2.)Twins - Mike Zunino, C - Florida
3.)Mariners - Mark Appel, RHP - Stanford
4.)Orioles - Byron Buxton, OF - Appling County HS, GA
5.)Royals - Marcus Stroman, RHP - Duke
6.)Cubs - Michael Wacha RHP - Texas A&M
7.)Padres - Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco U
8.)Pirates - Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico HS Academy, PR
9.)Marlins - Lance McCullers, RHP - Jesuit HS, Tampa FL
10.)Rockies - Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll HS, Corpus Christi, TX
11.)Athletics - Deven Marrero, SS - Arizona State
12.)Mets - Albert Almora, CF, Mater HS, FL
13.)White Sox - Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty HS, FL
14.)Reds - Ty Hensley, Santa Fe HS, Oklahoma
15.)Indians - Andrew Heaney, LHP - Oklahoma St
16.)Nationals - Tyler Naquin, OF - Texas A&M
17.)Blue Jays - Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe HS, LA
18.)Dodgers - Max Fried, LHP - Harvard-Westlake HS, CA
19.)Cardinals (from Angels for Pujols) - Chris Beck, RHP, Georgia Southern
20.)Giants - Lucas Sims, RHP - Brookwood HS, GA
21.)Braves - Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson
22.)Blue Jays (failed to sign Beede) - Steve Piscotty, RHP/3B/OF, Stanford
23.)Cardinals -Jake Barrett, RHP, Arizona State
24.)Red Sox - Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi St
25.)Rays - Stryker Strahan, C-OF - Acadiana HS, Lafayette LA
26.)Diamondbacks - Ty Buttrey, RHP, Providence HS, Charlotte NC
27.)Brewers (from Tigers for Fielder) - Walker Weicker, RHP - Olympia HS, Orlando FL
28.)Brewers - Dylan Baker, RHP, Western Nevada CC (Dominating with fb in mid 90’s and a late bloomer, hailing from Alaska)
29.)Rangers - Travis Jankowski, OF - Stony Brook
30.)Yankees - Lucas Giolito, RHP - Harvard-Westlake HS

Giolito will start throwing and will make a couple of bullpens just before the draft if he is 100%, he’s been running and playing light toss with no ill effects from the stress on his forearm, big kids that throw with that type of arm speed sometimes put a lot of force when that elbow inverts I guess in the action of the arm I’m trying to explain or suponate perhaps? anyways that puts a lot of strain on the forearm and elbow when it twists a lil more than natural, Darren Dreifort had that problem in HS and College and eventually took it’s toll on him with the Dodgers, but he could bring it up to 97 on his good days. The Yankees are not afraid of going for pitchers with signability problems or past injuries, look at Brackman and Betances, GIO has a better delivery and is just 18 barely!!!

Other players getting serious looks of late, DJ Davis from Stone HS, in Wiggins Mississippi, he can fly and has been hitting well, also signable, Travieso is getting lots of strong looks from GMs, he threw a few beebees at 97 with late tail you could hear behind the plate. Nick Williams also not getting pitched too very much and clubs down playing their interest on him? He’s a great talent, 5 tools and has a plus arm even with unorthodox approach to throwing from OF, how can you pitch at 94 and not be able to throw? This kid can play!! Also moving up the boards, RHP Ryan Harvey at Seton Hall up to 94 last outing with nasty breaking ball, RHP Kyle Hansen has improved downward tilt and delivery, up to 95 last outing with 88 cutter/slider, Eastern Oklahoma St has a RHP Logan Taylor who throws in the mid 90’s and touched 97, delivery is kinda funky but it works and 4-1 K to BB ratio has scouts buzzing, saw 4 scouting directors at his last start and Bob Gebhard former GM with Rockies, now consultant to Kevin Towers with D-Backs, don’t think Logan will go in first, but he’s been rising lately and very signable.

Key to 2012 MLB DRAFT FOLKS, and I’ve been crying wolf on this for the last 6 years is SIGNABILITY!!!

West Coast guys I talked with love Baker from W Nevada, jumped 10 mph in 2 years removed from Alaska HS baseball and travel team in Washington, also Zimmer is lost 5-6 MPH of his fb since his first 5 starts this spring and scouts that have seen him more than once say his fb has less movement and his delivery has been out of synch.

I will have one more MOCK in about 3 weeks as some late pop ups might arise.

Later!! I appreciate all the feedback!

by xmlbscout on May 5, 2025 12:15 AM EDT reply actions

who, if anybody, is getting buzz as an especially difficult sign?

You mentioned several players as being very signable, but there hasn’t been much talk about who won’t be signable and when. Would love to hear what you’ve heard on this. Thanks!

by mrkupe on May 5, 2025 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions

anthony alford and jameis winston

alford has told people not to draft him and jameis winston has a scholarship to florida state to QB for them and has been regarded as a tough sign

Snoochies
You gotta Fister, Recker, then Parker outside

by guessatomo on May 6, 2025 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, I'm assuming neither are going to be signable, too much trouble

I’m thinking more along the lines of guys who are genuinely interested in signing, but who are willing to head off to school if their prices aren’t met.

by mrkupe on May 6, 2025 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I think any prep player who expects to be 1st rounder but who falls for whatever reason will be a tough sign. Not as many teams will go over slot with comp picks.

For example at one point Nick Williams was thought to be a Top 5 lock. If he drops to say 2nd or 3rd round I don’t see anyway he signs. He can go to Texas try to get his stock back up and be a 1st rounder in a few years.

It seems it wont be players dropping because of worry about signability but instead players that drop will be those who don’t sign so they can retrieve value.

Ruiz hasn’t played much this year and many have him around 70. He was a 1st round guy coming into the year. I don’t think he will sign if he’s strafted past the comp around.

by scadder21 on May 6, 2025 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

williams

I don’t see him getting to 2nd or 3rd round, FWIW. I believe his floor is No. 40 to Philadelphia - they love their uber-athletes and Williams would probably rate very high on the organization’s board. I could see him going much higher, as well - if he busts then he never makes it out of A ball, but if he works out he has the potential to be a franchise player. There are a few candidates who jump out as especially likely to take a long look - Oakland (loved Donovan Tate a few years ago), Mets (looking to add upside), White Sox (love toolsy OFs), Washington (always a safe bet to jump on a raw product), Yankees (have shown a willingness to buck consensus on a player with big toos).

I do agree that if he doesn’t go by the end of the supplemental he is likely off to UT, which is not a bad fate at all. It’ll be interesting to hear what kind of draft slot/money he is hoping for, and I think he could be the type of player who will tell all of us about whether our own individual thoughts as to the new draft reality are completely right or wrong. :)

Ruiz is an interesting case as well. He hasn’t played much, true, but it’d be hard to ding him for this year unless you think he’s prone to circumstances that will keep him off the field. He might not have moved up based on 2012, but I’m not sure that he would have moved down, either. I imagine there are plenty of teams that still like him a lot and would jump at the chance to add him - although I suppose we do only have so many draft slots.

by mrkupe on May 6, 2025 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe I’m taking the player rankings more seriously than teams do. Most have Ruiz around 70 now when the year started he was around 25.

I don’t believe that a bloodclot is a chronic situation. i would love for the Cardinals to draft Ruiz at 36 or 39 this year.

If I was a top prep who fell past a slot number that I wanted and it’s reasonable to think that I could come back in 2 or 3 years and be an easy 1st rounder I was probably go to school.

In order for teams to sign playesr who fall they really need to think of a plan to game the system or be willing to pay the price.

by scadder21 on May 6, 2025 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

do you have actual inside team info re: rankings, or are you talking about Internet/external sources?

I tend to believe that MLB organizations are a bit firmer in their thinking and that they have long memories of players. If they liked Ruiz before and thought he was a sure first round guy, I’m pretty sure a fluke issue like a blood clot that keeps him off the field temporarily is not going to drop him into the mid-second round.

by mrkupe on May 6, 2025 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

No inside sources, I’m jsut talking BA, Frank Piliere, different guys who rank prospects.

I would hope that teams would have longer memories but teams often draft the helium guys who shoot up the charts during the last year.

by scadder21 on May 6, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

If you wouldn't mind

I’m curious about Piscotty to the Jays, and rationale for it. At first glance, it seems like he’s not really the Jays type. Is it just the unprotected nature of the pick? Because the new CBA changes it to 2 years of protection, and the Beede pick is grandfathered into that I believe.

by MjwW on May 5, 2025 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Piscotty

In long term Pisco might be a very good closer or even starter, he is almost a throwback to Dave Stieb of the Jays who played OF for Itchy Jones @ SIU years ago (70’s), which now shows my age, LOL, also he’ll go as far as his bat takes him, but he’s got a 60 plus arm but on the bump he’ll touch 95 which is basically a 70 fb and it’s not real straight either which is a plus. He breathes and eats baseball, besides being a book worm but fits in well with Jays system and their loading up with the development minded front office they have.

by xmlbscout on May 5, 2025 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks!

Much appreciated

by MjwW on May 6, 2025 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions

David Dahl?

Did you lose him in your cutting and pasting, or do you see him falling?

by acerimusdux on May 5, 2025 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Dahl

I like Dahl, I’m really not convinced about the power even with the talk he was ill last year, “mono”?, and with no effects of it this spring, he really hasn’t launched many HR’s at all, he does run very well, but he’s upright as a runner which means a stiff back for me which could lead to some physical breakdowns later, if you were to compare him at this age to Colby Rasmus when he was also a SR at Russell County HS, Colby had fluid everything, from hitting mechanics to pitching mechanics, and with commitment to Auburn, that might scare a lot of clubs away and with no power emerging this spring, that too might be of concern to many clubs. On some draft mocks I’ve seen, Dahl is listed in top 25, MLB has him in top 35 I believe and two X’checkers I ran into said the kid can fly and that’s probably his best tool other than bat speed, and they weren’t worried about the lack of HRs in his stat column and they told me Tyler Colvin was the same in HS and he learned to lift the ball giving him more power when he went to Clemson out of HS, so we shall see.

by xmlbscout on May 5, 2025 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Giants

I think the 3 Georgia preps of Sims, Underwood and Schmidt look like strong candidates. Also Hensley and Virant. Hensley has serious helium, but I haven’t seen him picked that early in a mock yet.

The other way the Giants might go is power, and if they do they most likely would target college not HS. Victor Roache and Shaffer seem like the most likely suspects.

The Dude Abides
Demondre The Giant Has A Posse

by shankbone on May 5, 2025 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

Cardinals tendancies

I know you are simply going by the Cardinals tendancies but I think they change things up some this year. With how stacked our pitching depth is in the minors I doubt draft Beck who may not even be talented enough to make the rotation in a few years, Wainowright, Garcia, Miller/Jenkins/Rosenthal/Martinez./Lance Lynn.

Regarding Barrett. We already drafted a closer from ASU a few years ago. He had TJ surgery this year but he has been great in the system. Jordan Swagerty. We also drafted someone with a very simlar profile to Barrett and it didn’t work out so well so far. Seth Blair.

Mozeliak recognizes the imbalance in our Minor League system between pitching talent and talent everywhere else.

If your board holds true I think the Cardinals take Weickel and Trahan. Trahan has a chance to be very good and we ahve the ability to bring him along very slowly and really learn how to call games. The Cardinals have seemingly been good at developing the HS pitchers lately so I think they go Weickel.

If Giolotio is really available I think we would draft him in a minute but I’m not buying that he gets out of the Top 10.

by scadder21 on May 5, 2025 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

can I ask

What makes you think they “change things up some this year”? I gather that you don’t like what they’ve done in the past, but a trend is kind of self-explanatory. The team drafts a certain way because they like certain types of players, and unless there is a substantial change in philosophy, wouldn’t it make sense to assume that they still like the same types of players they did before and therefore they will draft according to their established “tendencies”?

The two guys you’ve got them looking are both high upside (funny how the presumed change in philosophy is never towards higher-floor players) but neither seem like guys the Cards would target first round. They’ve jumped on the toolsy types in the supplemental/second round in recent years, but the only such player they’ve taken in the first recently is Shelby Miller.

by mrkupe on May 5, 2025 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

My reasoning is this….

Our GM recently talked about how pleased he is with our system but how it’s unbalanced and our pitching prospects are much stronger than our position players. That alone tells me they won’t go college pitcher for BOTH of the 1st round picks.

Jeff Luhnow and his system of statistical analysis is gone and with Houston now.

Our new scouting director with still use Statistical analysis but he was the head international scout for Oakland and when scouting international players you can’t rely on stats. So his skillset involves something that Luhow didn’t use much.

As I mentioned in my original post with the strong pitchers in our system ane near MLB ready it makes no sense to continue to draft college pitches.

Mo last year specifically mentioned we needed to sstart to draft more toolsy ooutfielders so we took about 4 in the first 10 rounds with Tilson, McElroy, Martini and Lance Jefferies.

We drafted Wong to fill a specific need.

Drafting a college ready hitter makes no sense seeing that we did that a few years ago and he seems to be completely blocked already. The set up of the organization makes it unlikely that we look for fast moving help.

This gives us a perfect chance to draft the lefty starter that we wanted last year, and a possible Molina replacement that we can develop very slowly in our system in order for him to get it right.

The Cardinals MLB system is pretty stacked this allows us to do things sligly different than we usually have.

by scadder21 on May 5, 2025 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Cardinals

Good points scadder, I know the org very well, especially one of their national guys who had a bought he’s fought with “C” the last few years and the cards always seem to go with the best available, not by “need”, Tyrell Jenkins has the ability to go far, how far? Who knows, you can’t teach arm strength and poise, which he has in both, the breaking pitch? well it’s coming along and he’s still less than 21 yrs old so he could add a few more MPH and make that 2nd and 3rd pitch a lot lot better. Weickel is still growing into his body and would be a nice pick, Trahan? Reminds me of Jason Varitek when he was at GT, Jason could really run when he was younger and had a lil stiffness to to movements, but a very good arm and absolute power when he connected with the barrell on the FB and bad breaking/hangers. Cards pitching depth in Minors is really not as solid as many would like, Miller will be ok as long as he stays out of trouble in the minors off the field, Jenkins still developing, Carpenter is almost finished as a starter at least (health wise) and Wainwright is still coming back from surgery and as big as he is, he might take some time to get it all together again, he used to touch 97 and barely gets it past 93, but he had a nasty hook and right now it’s rolling and not falling off the table like he had it going before the injury. “MOze” and company will be ready and he was last seen watching Hensley pitch and was talked about being at Travers next start in Texas HS playoffs. Cards also love Fried from Westlake and have only Garcia as a lefty right now and you can never have enough of them! LOL

by xmlbscout on May 6, 2025 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions

I think the Cardinals are very happy with the depth in the rotation in the Minors.

We have Miller obviously who is struggling at AAA but improving each start. You have Kelly who Duncan loved because of the sinker. He’s probably having more success at AAA than he did at AA sans 2 nights ago. Rosenthal was all anyone was talking about during the spring. They love the guy as do I. Gast’s groundball percentage is going down but his K rate is going up and he’s looking like a legit lefty pitching prospect. Swagerty is gone for the year but was very successful as a starter and then went to relief to keep his innings down. He will come back as a starter after surgery. Carlos Martinez is now dominating at the level he struggled at last year and is working on learning to “pitch” not just throw. And Jenkins has great stuff at QC.

Combine that with the Cardinals wanting to extend Waino once he proves hes the same. Having Garcia long term already and Lynn looking like he’s for real as a starter.

I’m sure Mo loves Fried I would love to have him but doubt he falls that far.

He has also mentioned wanting to sure up SS, whihc tells me Cecchini or Marreo if they are available. I wouldn’t like these moves because I don’t see either significantly better than Ryan Jackson already is.

I do see them taking someone like Naquin or Ramsey at 23 and signing them for slot in order to better allocate money for all the picks they will have. I see Shaffer or Roache as a possible pick.

The overall power in our system is way down. You have Adams, Taveras and not much else. Scruggs did well in Palm Beach but that isn’t traslating to Springfield yet.

by scadder21 on May 6, 2025 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually change Weickel to Virant or Smoral. We really liked Noriss and Owens last year but Wong made too much sense with the long standing hole at 2nd in the organization. That and Wong signed at slot the lefties wouldn’t have. The slot in the 1st allowed us to go over slot with Charlie Tilson.

by scadder21 on May 5, 2025 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

particulary weird this year in that....there is no consensus #1; or maybe better put:

there is no consensus top 3-5 with any order….

I mean, there are literally about a dozen guys who could go in the top 5.

Just strange.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 5, 2025 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

Consensus #1

Steve you are so right!! No clear #1 like in years past with Stras and Harp, there are a number of 6-7 guys who could go #1 overall, Appel was a favorite of many going into this spring. If this draft tells us anything, I believe it will say “depth” and lots of young arms with good college and HS hitters too. Catching depth might be a lot better than people think with Zunino, Elander, O’Brien, Murphy and Strahan, the most publicized, but also think about Phillips at OKC U who’s played some OF and can really mash, not a real fluid body however, but a very good arm and power package, Nellie Rodriguez hasn’t showed much power this spring as teams throw him a lot of garbage and he’s got a career high in walks and hit by pitches this spring in NYC for George Wash, also Simeon HS kid has turned to the mound and was up to 92-93 last time out, Hickman who’s a good 6’5 and 200 now, Leroy Franklin used to work with me and he’s a Hall of Famer of a HS baseball coach in Chicago public league.

If this draft proves anything, it will be balance along with “depth”.

by xmlbscout on May 6, 2025 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions

so you're partly saying the Twins shoudlnt' take Zunino at #2 with all those catchers that'll be there in the top 100 picks.

But you’re also saying theres going to be a LOT LOT of busts in this years draft class.
Thats kind of how i read into it.

out of the 30 1st rounders this June, i bet a dozen of them or more turn out to be busts/ quad A types. I mean I need to do research to see what the “average year” is in terms of 1st round busts, but i’m beginning to feel like despite a lot of depth, the lack of superior talent is going to leed of a lot of dissapointments for teams picking early in the first round.
maybe even middle and early 20s in round 1 as well.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 6, 2025 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

* lead to

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 6, 2025 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Busts

Steve, you probably have hit the nail on the head about potential for some “busts”, meaning there aren’t many off-the-chart type players this year, but I really feel there is good balance and me stating “depth”, there is a lot of younger players this year that will come out and skip college that know that they will get a fair bonus offer from whomever drafts them and clubs are doing more and more in home visits off-season and phone calls, texts, emails, etc with friends and family members to get all the “dope” on a prospect so they have a good feel for the player beyond the playing field, but personaly I love to look a player in the eye and speak with him and his family when that opportunity presents itself at the earliest possible convenience. I feel there will be some “busts” but I really like the depth and I feel there are some very good catchers and we have to remember, Steve, that Zunino hasn’t caught a whole lot, even though he has a UF, he was an infielder and he’s been around as a baseball rat for years with his dad being a scout for many years and the UF coaches have either played pro ball or worked in it at one time to help prepare “Z”, so poise and readiness wise, I think “Z” would not be far away from reaching the bigs if the Twins took him, but Doumit can still catch and throw and perhaps the Twins will move Morneau and let Mauer DH?, he could slide too past #5 if the first 4 clubs go strictly pitching, but this draft is going to go with signability too with the shorter window for kids to sign after the draft thanks to the new CBA and this “slotting - bonus cap?” stuff which I feel is a bunch of bunk, baseball is unique, not like the NBA or NFL, I really wish MLB would go with a college only draft and make HS players declare for hardship and once they declare, they must sign or the team that drafts that player hold their rights until they are done with college and if that player declines to sign with the club after their college career, have them re-enter the draft their 5th year which would make them 22-23 or 24 yrs old with lil if any bargaining power to negotiate a bonus with the next club that drafts them. But that will probably not happen.

I really feel if Nick Williams doesn’t go in the first round, someone will be kicking themselves in the rear end just like their doing with Carlos Rodon!!

Later!!

Good stuff and feedback everyone!!

by xmlbscout on May 6, 2025 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey X,

I’ve heard about how Nick Travieso has been throwing great fastballs as of late, but what do you think about his secondary pitches?

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on May 5, 2025 5:18 PM EDT reply actions

Travy

This kid will show a cutter type fb and a hard slurvy/slider that goes 81-86 and at times buckels the better hitters knees, he showed that last summer when I saw him too, so he has the ability to spin the breaking ball, I feel he’ll be a slider, and 2 types of fb guy and his hands are very strong, one scout I used to work for asked me if I remember Alex Fernandez when he went to U of M and we saw him together in ‘88 and said, “does Travy remind you of anyone? I said yeah, Alex Fernandez!” One exception, Travy is 6’1 and Alex was barely 5’11. Nick is going to be very good in a short amount of time as long as the club that takes him, allows him to climb a level at a time and not rush him..

by xmlbscout on May 6, 2025 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions

wow

That’s a VERY positive comp for Travieso. Alex Fernandez was a hell of a pitcher back in the day.

by mrkupe on May 6, 2025 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Almora is my favorite player that the Mets could realistically take

If we got him I would be thrilled. I’m in favor of taking Giolito and trying to convince him to sign and cross my fingers if Almora isn’t there. I also read that they’re heavily interested in Courtney Hawkins and Gavin Cecchini

only thing more overated and soft than osi umenyora is the 2011 eagles
Iman Shumpert is a first ballot hall of famer
a point guard within a point guard within a taco bell within a kfc, its Linception
writer at the Real Dirty Mets Blog

by metseaglesknicks on May 6, 2025 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

Travis Jankowski at 29?

Yuck. The Rangers can do better than that at 29. I think the questions about his bat preclude that. You could say that they have drafted similar players in the past, but that’s the point. How has that worked out so far?

Northern Virginia's greatest Ranger fan.

by Ajax68 on May 6, 2025 1:50 PM EDT reply actions

TJ @ 29

Ajax, yeah the Rangers probably could do better than Travis Jankowski, I know the area guy in Texas would love Nick Williams in that slot, but you really have to break Travis Jankowski down, what type of player/hitter is he? He’s got very good speed, he can throw and where do the balls go that he hits? He’s a slashing/line drive type guy and if you ever saw him in BP when he messes around with pulling the ball and lofting it, he can MASH with legit Alley Power, 400+ foot power, if anything this kid is a throw back to Andy Van Slyke and I believe Andy played a few years and made a pretty good living in MLB. TJ is also a very good athlete turning down lots of football offers to play baseball and between the bases, there aren’t as many who can really run like he can, but I could be wrong in 4-5 years from now, but I really think he’s going to make a very quick climb up someone’s system who needs speed, power and defense and a team player like TJ is. His club also has a pretty good late round guy in William Carmona who can throw 94 on the bump and has legit power and pretty decent balance and hands as a hitter, not real tall, but either are Fielder and Wigginton (Tiger & Phillie guys).

by xmlbscout on May 6, 2025 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions

As a Cardinal fan I think I would be happy with Jankowski if we had not selected Charlie Tilson for 1.3 mil last year. They seem to be very simlar type players. Based on your view of TJ in BP he probably has more power than Tilson but they seem to be very similar players.

by scadder21 on May 6, 2025 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions

As an Astros fan,

I’d rather see the FO take Buxton or Appel. Gausman might be a safer pick compared to those two, but he doesn’t have the ceiling of an ace. Appel’s numbers aren’t as good as they should be, but he still has great stuff. He has #1 potential.

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on May 6, 2025 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

so did Brian Matusz

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 6, 2025 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Astros's

What do you think about the Astros taking Zunnio. Luhnow obviously sees the importance of having a great catcher who can handle the staff. The Cardinals have been very lucky with Molina over the years. I think Luhnow may want his own Molina in Houston now and Zunnio may be the guy.

by scadder21 on May 6, 2025 4:45 PM EDT reply actions

Z to Astros?

That could happen Scadder, anything could happen, anyone of 10 guys could go to Astros #1, but have you given up on Castro yet? He missed much of his early pro career with an injury but he can play defense and isn’t a bad hitter, he could move to 1st eventually with his size and range and glove if the Stros took Z and Z was ready to move in as the backstop at the ML level. Jeff is a very smart man and his SD is one of the craftiest out there, taking the gamble on Lyles with a 1st round pick even though many clubs thought he’d go 4-5 round area, but he’s in the Majors and he’s contributing as a starter, so Bobby will get his “MAN” for sure but I know Jeff will have the final say, LOL!!

by xmlbscout on May 6, 2025 8:30 PM EDT reply actions

Here’s my feeling. Luhnow really doesn’t have any allegiance to anyone in the Astros’s system and wtih a new owner Luhnow pretty much can make whatever decision draft wise that he wants. I’m sure he realizes it will be a long term rebuild with the Rangers and Angels being strong in the AL West in the near future.

They can go with the guy with the potential to be the next Griffey with Buxton. They can also go with the most sure thing in the draft IMO with Zunnio. Luhnow knows the value of an perenial All Star catcher.

by scadder21 on May 6, 2025 8:53 PM EDT reply actions