Mike Minor vs. Drew Pomeranz (w/poll)

by drewlev on Apr 12, 2025 7:01 AM EDT

Which one do you expect to have the greater career? I think this is an interesting comparison between two lefties who have shown a little more strikeout ability than it was thought they had when they were drafted. Pomeranz's best pitch is his curve while Minor has his change. Who do you think will have the better career? Do either have Ace upside or are both more #2 starters? I think this is a really tough call. Let me know what you think! Thanks!

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Who Will Have the Better Career?

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Read More: Drew Pomeranz (P - COL), Mike Minor (P - ATL)

Comments

I'm not sure that Minor

Even has a very good shot at being a #2 starter.

by auclairkeithbc on Apr 12, 2025 9:51 AM EDT reply actions

funny

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by mathisrocks5 on Apr 12, 2025 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions

I do think he's throwing the terms around a bit loosely

But I’m not sure why you would think there is a significant difference in the chances of either guy reaching that level. Minor certainly has the stuff and the track record that make becoming a #2 starter seem an exceedingly reasonable outcome.

by nixa37 on Apr 12, 2025 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Reasonable? Maybe.

I’m not saying my head would explode if he became a solid 2nd best pitcher on a playoff team, but I don’t think he’s likely to be that. I guess the OP was talking upside, so sure, I’d say he has #2 upside I guess, but the OP seems to be framing the question as ace upside or “just” #2 upside. I think the debate about whether he even has a realistic chance at being a good #2 pitcher in this league is a more relevant debate.

by auclairkeithbc on Apr 12, 2025 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure why you would question if he has a realistic chance of being a good #2

He’s dominated at every stop in the minors, he’s posted excellent peripheral numbers in the majors, and he clearly has the stuff to support such performance. What reason is there to doubt him as a possible #2? What reason is there to think Pomeranz has a better chance at reaching that level?

Like I said, I agree that the framing of the question throws around designations too loosely, but once you get past that I don’t see why a comparison between Pomeranz and Minor isn’t an interesting and relevant topic of discussion. I honestly don’t see much reason to like Pomeranz significantly more outside of SNTS.

by nixa37 on Apr 12, 2025 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I have one reason

Also, he didn’t say it wasn’t an interesting and relevant touic of discussion. He just said he didn’t think it was likely that Minor becomes a #2 starter.

Anyways, my reason (s) . . .

Pomeranz in minors 105 Innings, 3 home runs allowed
Minor in minors 235 Innings, 21 home runs allowed

When I look at dominance, I look at home runs allowed in the minors even more than Ks. Drew also Kd a bit more guys as well.

I’m not a huge believer in ERA but, when the differences are big I do notice. Pomeranz had a 1.71 and Minor a 3.14. Add to that Pomeraznz bigger and, possibly more durable frame and, there are at least some legitimate reasons to like him as a higher ceiling starter than just SNTS.

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by casejud on Apr 12, 2025 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

You can't just ignore the levels they played at though

Pomeranz has thrown 77 innings in high A, 28 innings in AA, and 0 in AAA. Minor has thrown14 in low A, 87 in AA, and 134 innings in AAA. To put it another way, just 26.7% of the innings Pomeranz has thrown came in the high minors, compared to 94.0% for Minor. Despite that, Minor’s K:BB ratio is actually better than Pomeranz’s.

by nixa37 on Apr 12, 2025 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

You have a point

… there Nix. I still don’t see true dominance in Minor’s minor league record, giving up that many longballs nor, in his major league record thus far. Not saying he can’t become a true #2 starter, just don’t predict it . . . too hittable.

i see a little more of that potential in Pomeranz, visually, not even basing it on thier numbers. We will see.

by casejud on Apr 12, 2025 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh

Well I haven’t said anything about Pomeranz at all really. I just think the question of whether Minor minor has an ace ceiling or just a #2 ceiling really sticks out for me. That’s all.

by auclairkeithbc on Apr 12, 2025 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I know

But doesn’t the fact that it sticks out for Minor and not Pomeranz implies that you think Pomeranz is significantly more likely to reach that level.

by nixa37 on Apr 12, 2025 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess I do think Pom has a higher ceiling

Though I don’t think he has much of a chance to be a real ace either.

by auclairkeithbc on Apr 12, 2025 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree on the ace part

And I can certainly see a case for Pom having a higher ceiling. I just don’t think either guy has a significant advantage.

by nixa37 on Apr 12, 2025 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

It just struck me as odd that I had to decide whether Minor had ace upside or just #2 upside. I guess maybe I could have thought it just as odd to debate that about Pomeranz too, but it just doesn’t strike me as quite as weird of a question. I do think they are similar quality guys in many ways, though I do like Pom’s ceiling more and I prefer him overall.

by auclairkeithbc on Apr 12, 2025 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't get the love for Pomeranz around here

He has a solid fastball which is probably a 55, and a good curveball which is probably a 55 now and future 60. Someone correct me if I’m wrong. And his changeup is a work in progress that didn’t sound like it was getting anywhere last year.

That sounds like a pitcher that could become a 2 if the curve becomes a consistent plus pitch, a 60, and the change (or other secondary) becomes a 50 pitch. More likely he would be a 3 or 4 pitcher.

I see why he is an interesting prospect, but think he is rather overrated around here.

by pedrophile on Apr 13, 2025 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions

a 92 mph fastball from a lefty

has to be more than a 55, no?

by cookiedabookie on Apr 13, 2025 6:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Fastball velocity has been on the rise lately

I believe for a lhp it’s around 91.5 and about 92.5 for a rhp. This of course is for 4 seam fastballs. I can’t find the article where I read this. But since 2008 the velocity has ticked up a lot.

Another thing I read - pitchers 6’5 and above last five years 190. The previous 5 years 110.

by pedrophile on Apr 13, 2025 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

I have Minor as a 3-4 starter

He will be good but his velocity drops dramatically by the end of the year according to experts. Keith Law said his velocity goes to about 88-89 MPH as the year wears on.

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by King Billy Royal on Apr 12, 2025 3:45 PM EDT reply actions

Apparently said experts don't do any actual research before they speak

Clearly he doesn’t have an issue with his velocity dropping off dramatically later in the season. Now he does have some issues maintaining velocity later into starts, but the thing about him losing velocity later in the season is clearly a myth.

by nixa37 on Apr 12, 2025 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe I misheard Law

He could definitely been referring to losing velocity later into starts.

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by King Billy Royal on Apr 12, 2025 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I've seen him say it a couple times

Haven’t seen anyone else. I’m thinking he just misunderstood a scout one and no ones corrected him.

by nixa37 on Apr 12, 2025 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I heard it on Fantasy Focus

Regardless I like Minor but not nearly as much as Tehran or Delgado. I just can’t buy him as a top 2 starter.

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by King Billy Royal on Apr 12, 2025 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah I'd put his

upside as a #2, if he develops his breaking balls and is able to maintain velocity better through starts. But he’s very likely a MoR guy innings eater type if Fredi takes him off his leash

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by JHey1212 on Apr 13, 2025 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions