Community Positional Prospect Discussion (#12-15)

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 8:17 PM EST

I'm setting up a separate discussion thread which I am going to group by 5s after the initials ones. Here is a place to discuss who should be in the next few prospects taken. Try to keep the discussion to players you would seriously consider taking very soon, because there will be future threads to discuss the next tiers of players. Hopefully this will lead to more exhaustive debates, without having to start and re-start every 24 hours.

Currently we are on positional prospect #12 where there seems to be a wide divergence of opinions. I'll create a new discussion thread after positional prospect #15 is decided, but the discussion can continue with regards to players still off the poll, of course.

If people don't like my idea, please say so, and I'll delete the threads and we'll keep all the discussion in the polls.

POSITIONAL LIST SO FAR:

#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 59.2%

#02 - MIKE TROUT - 38.8% (In Poll #1)

#03 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 52.9%

#04 - MANNY MACHADO - 31.5% (55.1% In Runoff)

#05 - DEVIN MESORACO - 45.1%

#06 - WILL MYERS - 31.6% (51.4% In Runoff)

#07 - JESUS MONTERO - 61.3%

#08 - ANTHONY RENDON - 53.1%

#09 - TRAVIS D'ARNAUD - 46.6%

#10 - NOLAN ARENADO - 33.3%

#11 - MIGUEL SANO - 37.3%

#12 - YONDER ALONSO - 22.5% (45.3% In 3-Way Runoff)

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My next 5...

probably would be Rizzo, Marisnick, Bogaerts, Olt, Gose. Brown and Choice would be in the discussion also.

Would help if you included the players already ranked here, as not everyone is keeping track of these on their own.

by rhd on Nov 16, 2025 8:32 PM EST reply actions

Hmmm

See for me, I like Rizzo, but I think Alonso is definitely ahead of him at this point. I’m suprised you would have Rizzo listed and Alonso not even close behind him.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 8:35 PM EST up reply actions

We can agree...

to disagree but I’d much rather have Rizzo. He is actually good defensively at 1B whereas Alonso is questionable anywhere and will have to get traded even to play at 1B. The Reds evidently will try him in LF to get his bat into the lineup, and I’ve never heard him described as anything but bad in the OF. Bat-wise, I see them as similar, Rizzo is 2 years younger.

by rhd on Nov 16, 2025 8:51 PM EST up reply actions

How is Rizzo in the outfield?

It is irrelevant to their prospect status. Alonso is a solid defensive 1B, quite possibly above average. Whether he’s a bad OF or bad SS doesn’t change that.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

Also

Before this season, Alonso was considered the better prospect by most I think. And while Rizzo had a nice start to the year in AAA< he certainly didn’t have the kind of overall very good year that Alonso had. Alonso improved his stock more than Rizzo.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 9:01 PM EST up reply actions

Alonso, not Rizzo...

in the OF. Today’s scouting report for Alonso says he’s adequate at 1B, which is an improvement over past scouting reports. I’ve never heard his defense described as solid anywhere. And he wont be playing 1B in Cincy, so they’re trying him in LF, supposedly.

Before 2011, BA had them pretty equal as prospects (Alonso #73, Rizzo #75). Now BA, appears to prefer Rizzo, as he was #5 on the PCL list and Alonso was #13 on the IL. Hard to compare rankings in different leagues, but Alonso was below Cozart, who’s iffy for the top 100, while Rizzo was above Montgomery, B Jackson, M Perez and L Martin, who would appear to be locks for the top 100. Of course, you dont have to agree w BA, but I dont think too many lists will have Alonso above Rizzo.

by rhd on Nov 16, 2025 9:28 PM EST up reply actions

I would think most would prefer Alonso

But we’ll see. Those league top 20s don’t correlate well to their overall lists anyway. But calling Alonso an OF is just ridiculously unfair.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 9:35 PM EST up reply actions

Also

I’ve seen scouting reports that say he’s at least average defensively at 1B, and John Sickels also agreed with that this season.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 9:46 PM EST up reply actions

It's a popular myth AK

It started at Alonso’s draft time vs Smoak - the idea that Smoak was great w/leather and Yonder was sub-par. Neither were the case. They are roughly the same. Alonso is just fine as a 1b. It’s an argument usually used by folks who don’t like him as a prospect.

I will say that there is a decent argument for Rizzo though. I think dismantling the PCL at age 21 raises ones stock some :)

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 16, 2025 10:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

they both raised their stock

i think alonso moreso than rizzo, as he improved in AAA, with very low K rate, and really excelled in the majors. it was a pretty small sample but still, the underlying numbers were quite good, and he did it under tough circumstances.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 11:09 PM EST up reply actions

Alonso vs Rizzo

Alonso - age 24, in AAA, 11.2% BB-rate, 14.7% K-rate, 114 wOBA+, 131 wRC+

Rizzo - age 22, AAA, 10.4% BB-rate, 21.5% K-rate, 123 wOBA+, 149 wRC+

Rizzo has the ARL advantage, a similar BB-rate, and better overall offensive performance. They are probably fairly even defensively. Alonso has the edge in K-rate. To me, Rizzo has a clear advantage, and I have him at 18 vs. 23 for Alonso.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 9:09 AM EST up reply actions

What did they do in the majors?

Small sample, sure. But a fairly telling one.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 17, 2025 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not knocking Rizzo

For his disappointing major league sample, although it isn’t highly encouraging. Yonder was great in the majors over his 100 or so AB. When you think a player has a very high ceiling right away, and they show it (albeit in a small sample), that says a lot. Either way, you have them semi-close together. I don’t think it is outrageous to prefer Rizzo, but to highly prefer him is just hating Alonso in my view. 23rd hitter for Alonso is pretty low though, but I’m just comparing the two of them.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 17, 2025 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

Alonso didn't "improve his stock" more then Rizzo

Rizzo spent all but a few weeks of the season as a 21 year old. His 1056 OPS was substantially higher then league average (807 OPS). He hit 26 long balls in his 413 PA’s. Alonso on the other hand turned 24 in early April, while his 860 OPS was also above league average (729 OPS), but not as drastic as Rizzo’s (130 OPS+ vs 117 OPS+). It was a good year, but between his age and him repeating the level, I’m not sure where you get your basis on him improving more then Rizzo.

In the past two years at AAA in 854 PA’s Alonso has hit 24 homerun’s while hitting 296/.364/.478. That’s two fewer then Rizzo hit this year despite having 431 more PA’s!! Were comparing one guy who is considerably older who has hit 15 & 17 hr’s these past two seasons at a position, where the good ones all eclipse that figure, two or three fold, to a guy that is much youger and has hit atleast 25 hr’s the past two seasons. If you buy into the whole progression theory, one guy might be a 20-25 hr bat with the other a possible 35-40 hr bat.

When Alonso was the same age Rizzo is now he had only appeared in 6 minor league games. That was back in 2008.

That said, yeah Alonso had a great 98 PA’s with the Reds. Small sample size is always preached and when a guy in Alonso’s position posts a 943 OPS in that SSS, while owning only a 837 OPS career minor league mark, it’s probably wise to not let the impressive debut carry too much weight. If only Alonso’s road BABIP of .462 was sustainable, that’s called luck. Hence the importance of not reading too much into what amounts to be a puny amount of PA’s (about 3 weeks worth).

During the last two years in the minors they stack up as:

Alonso - 975 PA, 93 xbh (9.5%), 102 BB (10.4%), 152K (15.5%)
Rizzo - 1015 PA, 128 xbh (12.6%), 104 BB (10.2%), 221K (21.7%)

Take the above and factor in the 3 baseball year age gap. What kind of numbers would Rizzo be putting up against the same competition in that time? The difference in power really stands out, Rizzo had a .220 ISO in ‘10 followed by a partially PCL induced .321 mark in 2011, compared to a .160 ISO in ’10 & .192 mark this year for Aloso. Which explains why Rizzo drove in 201 runs over that time to Alonso’s 125. Or to further illustrate, Alonso had 253 hits those two years in the minors, 160 of which were singles. Rizzo had 254 hits, with only 126 of them being singles.

I take Rizzo!

by Amish_Willy on Nov 18, 2025 12:53 AM EST up reply actions

For me, the next five are:

10. Brett Jackson
13. Yasmani Grandal
14. Hak-Ju Lee
15. Xander Bogaerts
16. Jake Marisnick

Lee vs. Bogaerts was an interesting debate for me. I think Lee can definitely stay at SS, and be above average to great defensively, still not sure that Xander can do the same - if he cannot, Lee has the positional advantage. Lee also has the advantage in contact ability, speed, and plate discipline, and has proven himself at a higher level. However, Xander has a huge advantage in ARL and power. I decided to place Lee one spot higher, but it was tough.
Probably the biggest name missing is Bubba Starling, but as I said in an earlier post, I want to see how he does next year, and tend to be more conservative with high school draft picks.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 16, 2025 8:43 PM EST reply actions

I'd have the next five

something like: Brett Jackson, Rizzo, Marisnick, Starling, Bogaerts/Gose/Lee.

by PrincetonCubs on Nov 16, 2025 8:59 PM EST reply actions

Hey Buddy

Good to see your opinions here Man.
Now, time to cut one up a tad. No offense.

Bogarde did exactly one thing better than Tavares- hit homers. Not that much better either- 10 home/ 6 road in a good park for homers in Greenville.

Tavares hit twice as many doubles, twice as many triples, and a million more singles. He also walked less and Kd much more.

The kicker is that Bogearts doesn’t run better or, project more value defensively either. He also is just 3-4 months younger.

Unless you really see X man as a big league SS, I don’t see the argument that he is better than Oscar. I’d love to hear it though.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 16, 2025 10:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Shoot

Obviously, I meant that Bogearts walked less and Kd more.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 16, 2025 10:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

The kicker is that Bogearts doesn’t run better or, project more value defensively either.

Actually Bogaerts projects for more defensive value as an above average 3B vs. an average to above average corner OF for Taveras. Bogaerts is actually pretty solid at SS, he’s just expected to outgrow the position, he’s not projected to move because of his D.

The rest isn’t worth debating, you have your mind set Taveras is in another class as a hitter so it’s best just to leave it at that.

http://bullpenbanter.com

RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage

by gatling on Nov 16, 2025 11:30 PM EST up reply actions

You are right about that

last part. When a young hitter like OT has close to as many xhbh’s as strikeouts, that tends to make me like him more as a hitter.

After hearing every possible chink in his armor from, hitting too many grounballs, to his sweet, vicious swing, to his makeup I still think his biggest crime as a prospect in this community, is hitting for too high of a batting average. Maybe he’d get more attention if he hit .312 instead of .380.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 2:21 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Bogaerts hit 16 home runs

in 296 at bats. Taveras was really aided by high BABIP, Bogaerts was unlucky with BABIP. Bogaerts has the highest ISO of an 18 year old in the SAL league ever other than Adrian Beltre and Mike Stanton. Bogaerts was 8 months, not 3 months younger than Taveras. According to fangraphs, doubles and triples rate don’t stabilize at 600 PA’s, how could you expect them to stabilize at 347? Taveras walks more, but Bogaerts takes more pitches per PA. Bogaerts was rated 3rd best prospect in A just by statistical analysis by project prospect. Only behind Profar and Harper. Bogaerts has much better scouting reports than Taveras. To me it’s not even close

by Bososx13 on Nov 17, 2025 5:57 AM EST up reply actions

Well, ok

I suppose if you look at thier numbers and give Bogaerts credit for ALL of his homers, then “stabalise” all of Tavares’s singles, doubles, annnd triples to the same as Bogaerts then . . .; presto! Thye now hit for the same average! Makes complete sense now!

Sorry for the sarcasm. You have some good points on XBs age and, defensive potential but, I think Tavares is a far better pure hitter (swings and misses about half as much) and, OT has plenty of power himself.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

actually he swings and misses about 1 1/2 times times as much as Taveras

33% swing and miss rate vs Taveras 22%, but I get what your saying. I get what your saying, Taveras will have a higher BABIP, because he hits more LD’s. But the Batting average will be much closer than the BABIP because Xander hits so many homers and those aren’t in play. Bogaerts’s big power + defensive potential gives me the advantage for him, but I could see someone taking Taveras if they think he can keep his BABIP not this high, but very high. I think his BABIP will be high but not that high, and I think Bogaerts’ BABIP will increase

by Bososx13 on Nov 17, 2025 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

totally hear you

Taveras is in the next 10 or so, for me. The things working against him in my book:
~~can’t argue with Taveras’ conventional numbers, but the luck involved in his season is preventing me from buying him as a super-special bat~~-yet. especially put up against someone like Bogaerts, who had a relatively unlucky season (about 25 pts under league average BABIP.)
-I do think there’s a bit of difference in defensive value, Bogaerts even if not a SS can be a plus 3B.
-what I’d perceive as a disparity in scouting reports (though more positive material on Taveras has come out lately it seems, minus the max effort swing & hamstring issues.)

by PrincetonCubs on Nov 17, 2025 10:08 AM EST up reply actions

that's weird

don’t know why that got crossed out. didn’t mean it like that.

by PrincetonCubs on Nov 17, 2025 10:08 AM EST up reply actions

No problem

It happens sometimes. I don’t know why. Makes you wish one could delete a post or, at least edit one eh?

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 10:38 AM EST up reply actions

Next 5

Nick Castellanos
Christian Yelich
Michael Choice
Yonder Alonso
Billy Hamilton

by BryceHarper on Nov 16, 2025 9:10 PM EST reply actions

Dude?

No offense but, why would you like Castellanos over Oscar Taveras? He doesn’t do anything as well - have better tools - nor he younger.

It’s hard to see how any reasonable person would like Hamilton over either Hak Lee or Nick Franklin.

They both can swing the bat, Hamilton can’t, both are as good or way better defensively and. . . both Lee and Franklin run well!

You can’t steal first base BH!

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 16, 2025 10:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Really like Oscar

But I like the positional value of Casty at 3B.

Hamilton hit over .300 in the 2H. The guy has Tim Raines speed playing SS or even 2B.

by BryceHarper on Nov 16, 2025 11:10 PM EST up reply actions

iam2asian4u::Jarrod Parker
as
casejud::Oscar Tavaras

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 9:12 AM EST up reply actions

True

Except the numbers back up my love for the guy, unlike Parker.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

Parker

Is pretty good.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 17, 2025 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

He is

. . . but his numbers are only fair really. Oscars are freaking outstanding. I can never seem to convince anybody much but, everybody just seems to want to explain away the guy who lead his league in avg, obp, and slugging - with BABIP. I see a guy who swings from his heels and doesn’t often miss.

Again, it seems like the reason people don’t like him is because he hit .380 and, that seems strange to me.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

I like him, have him just outside my top 20

But he could move up my list quick if he can maintain this at a higher level next year.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Cool CDB

I guess my point is that he is already quite a ways ahead of Bogaerts as a hitter unless you just explain away .130 points of average based on an amounts of “luckiness” that nobody can accurately quantify. OT hits for plenty of power himself.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Sure Taveras hits for decent power

but Bogaerts hits for much more power. Look at this: home runs per contact: Taveras 3.1%, Bogaerts 8.1%. Bogaerts’s position is also a whopping 15 run positional advantage, even if Bogaerts moves to 3rd, he has a 10 run positional advantage over Taveras. Next year, Taveras’ BABIP won’t be .440, and he won’t hit .380. Bogaerts has a lower differential between his BA and his BABIP despite having more strikeouts because hitting for power is so important. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bogaerts put up a higher BA than Taveras next year.

by Bososx13 on Nov 17, 2025 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

Id be shocked!

If Bogaerts is this HUGE slugger who swings and misses a lot more and, you are comparing to Mike Stanton - then why would you need to make an argument that he is going to hit for average too?? Not a very good argumeht either.

A couple of other factual point: There is more to power than home runs and, Bogaerts doesn’t hit for much more power.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

Hitting 2.5 times more

home runs per contact, yeah, i would call that a lot more power. I was saying he could hit for average, because his BABIP only has to be .330 to hit .300 if he continues this season’s power and K rates, he could improve his K rate. There is more to power than home runs, but those other things don’t stabilize at 600 Plate appearances. doubles and triples both fail to stabilize, home runs stabilize at 300 Pa’s. Bogaerts and Taveras both have roughly 300 Pa’s, Taveras has like 70 more than Bogaerts, so we can use HR/contact, it’s perfectly stable. But doubles and triples rate don’t stabilize at 600 Pa’s. That means each player’s doubles and triples rate will probably change a ton in the following seasons. The Home runs will stay much more stable. BABIP also dosen’t stabilize at all. Which is why it changes so much and that’s why Bogaerts is better than Taveras. Combined with the fact his position is much more important and he has much better scouting reports.

by Bososx13 on Nov 17, 2025 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

You meen

the Oscar Taveras that was just named the 11th best prospect in an AFL that is loaded with very good prospects?

Also, you amke some good points there but you never seem to want to adress the fact that Greenville’s park has a 120 homer factor for righthanded batters - its a launching pad. Maybe you should just use Bogaert’s road numbers and, re-calculate? That sort of impacts his home-runs per contact :)

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 18, 2025 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

Oh

I wasn’t knocking Taveras. Just saying you aren’t doing the iam2asian4u thing, but I’d still expect Parker to be higher ranked…John gave him an A-.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 17, 2025 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

Oh sure

Thats ok. I don’t mind. This isn’t MY list. This is the communitys list. I expect all sorts of rankings that I don’t agree with and Im okay with it.

Its not going to stop me from debating the prospects I like though! Thats what this thing is for right?

I just can’t grasp why someone would look at Castellanos and Tavares and liike Castellanos more. I don’t get it.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

I'll agree with that

But I have Taveras as a B, Castellanos as a B-. I might bump Casty up to a B, but it’s fringy.

by mrkupe on Nov 22, 2025 7:43 AM EST up reply actions

I believe that iam2asian4u is John Sickels in disguise.

F***ing with us, because he’s bored.

by Brownson on Nov 17, 2025 9:30 PM EST up reply actions

Mr. Sickles pulling an Andy Kaufman?

by cookiedabookie on Nov 18, 2025 11:00 PM EST up reply actions

my next five is

Bogaerts
Rizzo
Franklin
Alonso
Gose

by Bososx13 on Nov 16, 2025 9:14 PM EST reply actions

oops

forgot Cuthbert
Bogaerts
Rizzo
Cuthbert
Franklin
Alonso

by Bososx13 on Nov 16, 2025 9:14 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe we could have an actual discussion

Instead of everyone listing their next 5, not that there is anything wrong with that. But it doesn’t help us to decide who should be prospect #12, which is the primary point of this thread/

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 9:16 PM EST reply actions

Prospect #12 Discussion

by BryceHarper on Nov 16, 2025 9:21 PM EST reply actions

Castellanos for me

After an absolutely brutal April the kid, only 19, was extremely good in the MWL.

His overall line:

.312 avg.
.367 OBP
.436 Slg.
36 doubles
7 hrs

splits: .320 v. RHP .286 v. LHP

More impressive when you look at his 2H:

.331 avg.
.398 OBP
.449 slg.

The power will come. I believe those 36 doubles start to turn into hrs. Maybe not entirely next next year in the FSL, but once he hits Double A.

by BryceHarper on Nov 16, 2025 9:29 PM EST up reply actions

I don't have him too high on my list

But he’ll get a shot on the next poll and enter the rotation as there are a few others that seem high on him as well.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 9:52 PM EST up reply actions

Well...

He’ll be the next tester to join the poll. It will quite possibly be next poll, but that is tough to say. Depends on how many people drop out of this one.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 9:54 PM EST up reply actions

Bogaerts v. Castellanos

I don’t see why he would be ahead of Castellanos at this point.

14 doubles and 16hr’s with a .260 avg and .324OBP, only about 7 months apart in age, and in a more hitter friendly league.

by BryceHarper on Nov 16, 2025 9:58 PM EST up reply actions

Oscar T

I don’t see how either of you guys can use statistics to defend Castellanos or Bogearts over Oscar T.

Casty’s second half STILL comes nowhere close to Oscar. Bogearts had a edge in ISO but, was worse in every other category,

Neither are markedly younger AND, here is the kicker- neither run better, throw better or, have better physical skills, that I know of.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 16, 2025 10:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I like Oscar

don’t have anything bad to say about him. I prefer the positional value of the bat at 3B.

by BryceHarper on Nov 16, 2025 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

Bogaerts is 8 months younger than Taveras

Bogaerts dosen’t just have an edge in ISO, he has the highest ISO of an 18 year old in the SAL ever other than MIke Stanton and Adrian Beltre. Mike Stanton power at an infield position. Bogaerts also has a better throwing arm than Taveras and better physical skills. Bogaerts has much better scouting reports than Taveras. Taveras was aided by high BABIP. Bogaerts was hurt by a low BABIP, soon, their batting averages will get much closer.

by Bososx13 on Nov 17, 2025 6:01 AM EST up reply actions

Re "Mike Stanton power at an infield position"

You could make the Mike Stanton comp if you are using scouting reports, but it is not correct to use it by transferring stats (ISO, in this case) across years. It’s simply an unsafe use of the data.

by siddfynch on Nov 19, 2025 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

only 7 months apart in age is a big difference

16 homeruns, in 294 at bats. Better walk rate and similar K rate than Castellanos. THe main thing Bogaerts has going for him though is his crazy ISO. HIghest ISO in the SAL by an 18 year old ever other than Adrian Beltre and MIke Stanton. He also is a SS.

by Bososx13 on Nov 17, 2025 6:05 AM EST up reply actions

I think I may have been right

Tavares born June 1992
Bogaerts born October 1992

Anybody else have a different listing fort these guys?

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

Bogaerts is 104 days younger than Taveras

So about 3.5 months, that’s correct.

"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."

by BenMc5 on Nov 17, 2025 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

whoops

that was a pretty bad mistake. I would still take Bogaerts

by Bososx13 on Nov 17, 2025 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

eh

He’s nowhere close for me right now. Spotty defense, a little raw (deceptively so) at the plate.

by mrkupe on Nov 16, 2025 10:17 PM EST up reply actions

With you on this, kupe

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 9:14 AM EST up reply actions

Brett Jackson

power, speed, plus defense at a premium position, great makeup, and close to the majors with success in the high-minors.

I understand strikeouts as a concern, but his average is going to be fine—I don’t think he’s a .300 hitter, more .275-.280 over his career.

One thing I’ve never gotten is the “he does everything well, but doesn’t excel at one thing” complaint. I don’t think you should have to have one standout tool to be a top prospect—doing everything well makes you a pretty darn good ballplayer…

by PrincetonCubs on Nov 17, 2025 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

"he does everything well, but doesn’t excel at one thing"

This is what we could call the Dwight Evans principle

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

Shoot

I guess, except Dewey did a few things really well, like catch the ball and, throw. He was a good offensive player as well.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

I agree

I am of the opinion that Dewey had a much better HOF case than his long time teammate Jim Rice, but because he didn’t excel in one area he was overlooked. Similar to Sweet Lou Whitaker and others.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

+1 to that

Dwight was the better ballplayer

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

my next five probably

Lindor, Taveras, Lee, Bogaerts, Franklin

by blue bulldog on Nov 16, 2025 9:56 PM EST reply actions

I like this 5

Quite a bit

Why would Castellanos be better than a couple of SSs who aced the MWL last year?

Franklin had a down year but, he hit in his trial at AA and, in the MWL last year. Lee built on a solid year there last year with a VG 2011.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 16, 2025 10:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Lindor is next for me

The ceiling is quite a bit higher than what I thought it was back in June based on reports. And he is one of the few SS prospects that will actually stick at SS.

The next grouping of 5 for me would be Bogaerts, Lee, Marisnick, Cuthbert and Alonso.

On a separate note, the positional list seems to be advancing at a quicker pace than the pitchers. Can we slow down the positional lists a bit to allow the pitchers to catch up?

by guru4u on Nov 17, 2025 9:59 AM EST reply actions

Only because there haven't been as many run-offs for positional prospects yet

3 for pitchers, two for positional, but the first two spots for positional were decided in the first poll. This will right itself, as we have more runoffs for positional prospects.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 10:33 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I would just let it be it will shake out fine over time.

"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."

by BenMc5 on Nov 17, 2025 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

Lindor is intriging

I want to place him soon myself but, I also feel like there is a buit of SNTS there with him in regards to Lindor vs Lee. Lee has three years of development with the bat and, oustanding running and fielding abilities himself.

I’[m not saying you are wrong to place Lindor higher, just that I don’t know If I have a real good grasp on how ell Lindor will actually HIT yet.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed

I think you have to give Lee the advantage, given we have a better idea of what he can do in the majors than we do with Lindor right now.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 12:27 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed with your agreeing

I almost want to give up my lost cause of convincing people that Oscar Tavares is awesome - not that it isn’t obvious - because one of my other favorites, Lee, is getting so overlooked. Alas, I only have one vote though :)

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

agreed

For as much skepticism as I saw surrounding Lindor back in late May-early June, the bump he’s gotten lately is absolutely staggering.

His overall talent level is tremendous, but I can’t quite shake the feeling that he’s going to be merely okay for a year or two before busting out. I’d gladly take Lee at this time . . .I think grading probably puts Lindor as one of the lowest B+ players that I have on the board, with Lee sitting solid at A-, where he’s been for the better part of 2011.

by mrkupe on Nov 22, 2025 7:52 AM EST up reply actions

Can people rec this post to keep in on the front page, and keep the discussion going?

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 7:19 PM EST reply actions

I find this very interesting

It says the best power hitters have
43% FB%
23% HR/FB Rate
22% K%

Bogaerts has
42.5% FB%
22% HR/FB%
24% K%

Dude looks like he’s gonna have some serious power.

by Bososx13 on Nov 17, 2025 8:34 PM EST reply actions

oops

here’s the link http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/predicting-the-power-tool-using-metrics/

by Bososx13 on Nov 17, 2025 8:38 PM EST up reply actions

Errr...

Those are MAJOR LEAGUE numbers. Minor league numbers like that don’t stay static as you move up levels. The get worse.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 19, 2025 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

The whole article

Is more retrospective than forward-looking. It is just saying of all major league seasons, with 38+ HR, these are the average stats. HR/FB is a definite positive stat here. FB% is good for hitting HR, but if that HR/FB rate drops down quite a bit, it doesn’t help the overall hitting line.

K rate is something that is totally different for A ball players than for MLB players. In the majors, K rate is sort of a trade-off type thing. You take more pitches, you strikeout more, and your walk rate should improve too. You take huge HR swings, you miss more pitches. You wait for a perfect pitch, you get in bad K counts. If you are a big guy with big power, you probably are much more likely to gamble with 2 strikes and swing for the fences instead of trying to put the ball in play.

In the low minors, it is more or less a sign of being over-matched. The all or nothing swing for the fences approach can affect that as well, but if that is the approach of an A ball guy, it is hardly scalable to the majors. As hitters move up, they see fewer mistake pitches, fewer straight 88 MPH fastballs down the middle, they strikeout more, the deep fly balls turn into weaker fly balls.

I like Bogaerts, but this analysis doesn’t really apply.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 19, 2025 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

Arenado Scouting Report

I know we already voted him in at #10, but WOW:

http://projectprospect.com/article/2011/11/17/nolan-arenado-scouting-report

by Traindogger on Nov 18, 2025 8:39 AM EST reply actions

yep

The real question is: what took everybody so long?

by mrkupe on Nov 22, 2025 7:53 AM EST up reply actions

Completely agreed

There are a couple of kids out there with physical talent that Nolan Arenado probably can’t match, but he has had a superb season & minor league career. Not that the link really sheds any new light on Arenado or anything, but he’s been underlooked to me considering his production & age (didn’t Baseball America’s recent CAL list slot Arenado behind Jedd Gyorko who is 22-23?).

Some are probably thinking that the recent adulation is a bit much (& even I as an ardent ‘Arenado guy’ am a little flushed by much of it - kind of like when your favorite band signs with a major label or is on the brink of mainstream acceptance I guess - but it’s difficult to find any more than 5-7 position players without there whom I prefer so I don’t think it’s unjustified. I think he’s a third baseman (& not a bad one either) & though somewhat wary of just how much HR power he might grow into, there are too many positives with him (more all time minor league XBH than Ks for a guy who just slugged almost .490 ?) to get too mired in the ancillary stuff like that when there aren’t many comparable prospects out there at this time.

by Matt0330 on Nov 22, 2025 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

Rizzo gettting quite a few votes at this point

He was discussed a bit up top in the Alonso vs Rizzo debate, but what do other people think of him, as he could be one of the next few prospects on the list possibly?

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 19, 2025 1:42 PM EST reply actions

Also...

In the tester pool right now we’ve got Leonys Martin, Mike Olt, Garin Cecchini, Jonathan Singleton, Jedd Gyorko, Oswaldo Arcia, Ryan Lavarnway, Jean Segura, Billy Hamilton, Gary Brown.

Does anyone have any particular favorites among this group? I’m thinking the first 4 on the list will get the 1st cracks at it, not that the whole list is in any particular order. But I don’t care too much, and it is unlikely to have a big effect one way or the other. Just curious if anyone has 1 or 2 or 5 that stand out.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 19, 2025 1:51 PM EST reply actions

Well in my top 20

I have Olt, Brown, and Lavarnway. So those are the ones I am most interested in.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 19, 2025 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

Will Middlebrooks, Starling Marte, Tim Wheeler, Kolten Wong

Were added to the tester pool as well.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 19, 2025 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

Yoenis Cespedes

Answering my own question from the other day, rotoworld had this to say about Cespedes today:

A scout who has seen Yoenis Cespedes told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that the Cuban outfielder has “too long of a swing for me” and compared the 26-year-old to Wily Mo Pena.
“He has too long of a swing for me,” the scout said. "He could strike out a lot. He reminds me of Wily Mo Pena a little with his power, but whether you can devote those kinds of dollars and project him as a top major league player, that’s quite a leap of faith.’’ There’s no question that anyone who signs Cespedes will be taking a risk, but, given the number of teams that appear to be showing interest, he should have no trouble landing a big deal.

by siddfynch on Nov 20, 2025 1:20 PM EST reply actions