MLB Labor Deal Reached: Big Changes Ahead in Draft

Teams in the ten smallest markets and with the ten lowest revenues will enter a lottery for six additional first and second round picks, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times

5% over slot you lose next years first round pick, 15% over the next two first rounders. So there is now no way for teams like the Pirates, Royals, Astros, Rockies, A’s or any other small market team to compete.

I’ve gotta say, I don’t like the 15 teams in each league with the additional wild card at all. That being said, I hate the unbalanced schedule now. I don’t think it’s fair to have an unbalanced schedule when you have a wild card. A team with an easier schedule therefore has an advantage.

So now there is going to be interleague play at all times? I can’t wait for the first AL pitcher to be hurt running the bases in April and see how that’s received. It would make much more sense to expand to 16 teams per league, IMO.

And the rumors of the Wild Card being a one game play off? So they play 162 games, and then it all comes down to a 1 game playoff? What a joke. The team with one great starting pitcher wins, I guess.

I don’t understand this…

http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111122&content_id=26025138&vkey=pr_mlb&c_id=mlb

I wonder what it will do to the draft over the next 3-4 years if even 40% of the high schoolers that would have been drafted go to school, that really thins out the draft a lot, it will also lead to a bunch of college guys in rookie leagues that 99% of them of 0% chance of making the majors.

I was wondering if you could tell me where I could find your 2011 organization rankings.

I have found that the Rays, a team known for recently going overslot, has gone overslot by around 10% each of the past two years.

When looking at that grotesque picture at the top of this article.

Horrible CBA deal, the new rules put in place on draft compensation and limits on spending are just plain awful. Owners could care less of course that they are going to kill the game with this deal over the long haul and continue to lose the best athletes to football.

Small market teams are punsihed severly with this deal and will then need to be subsidized almost completely by the big market clubs now.

Draft limits may curb rebuilding efforts - Teams will face draft spending ceilings in the $4.5-11.5MM range. Clubs like the Pirates, Rays, Indians, Nationals, Blue Jays and Mets had been spending aggressively on the draft, but will have to slow down or face steep fines and lose future selections.

International spending restrictions - The restrictions on international spending appear to make it harder for teams to build a competitive advantage internationally.

More super twos - More players than ever will be arbitration eligible before obtaining three years of MLB service. This won’t stop the annual service time manipulations for top prospects, but it might delay them until later in the summer. The cutoff will now be earlier than ever, which means teams may wait until the end of June before calling top prospects up.

(All of this seems to be making things worse for teams not in contention on the MLB level)

We don’t know if the new pool limits are going to be higher than the previously-recommended slots or not, but it isn’t exactly smart either way. If there’s no change from the ‘11 slots, it’s going to be more of an annoyance than a game-changer. Guys will still get drafted, and teams will just have to pick the times when the draft’s talent crop is so good that it’s worth going on a spending binge. Sign a dozen guys for over slot, take the two-pick hit, and behave for the next couple of years until you get your first-round picks back and can pick your spots again. It’s probably not even going to depress bonuses much, just create volatility in year-to-year spending. You’ll see a team spend $20MM one year then $6MM the next two. No real net difference, the way I see it.

If the slots are changed (increased) dramatically, it’ll probably be business as usual. Some of the patterns mentioned above will happen every now and then, but if the changes are significant enough I doubt it’ll be too drastic. We’ll just have to see.

The worst part, though, is undoubtedly the Latin American free agent spending limits. These are legitimate caps that prevent these kids from getting money commensurate to their value. For basically no reason. Extremely discriminatory, and even downright inhospitable in some cases, particularly to Cubans. From what I understand, if a Cuban player with fewer than three years of experience who is less than 23 years old defects, his bonus will count against a team’s Latin American signing pool. Basically, MLB and the MLBPA just wrote this to Cuba:

Dear Cuban Baseball Players,
I know the idea of freedom must sound pretty awesome to you guys. If you’re considering defecting because of the promises of freedom that the US provides, trust us, it TOTALLY holds up. However, if you’re any good, stay the hell away until you’re 23 years old. Nobody will want you yet because we made sure they won’t for no apparent reason. Good luck in your new soccer career.
Sincerely,
MLB & the MLBPA

For too long agents have been able to steer higher rated tough sign guys towards the big market teams. Ultimately that effects the competitive balance of the league.

All this is doing is helping smaller markets draft guys in the slots with which their talents belong.

Thinking and reading more about this, I’m not as worried as I initially was. It sounds like the bonus pools will be big enough that the important guys will still get signed, but middle-talent high school guys are more likely to go to college or (especially) junior college for guys who don’t have great grades or lots of money.

I think we will see the following

1) a lot of complaints about how it will ruin everything
2) some smarter teams figuring out how to game the system around the edges somehow
3) college baseball and junior college baseball gets better but
4) all but the elite college juniors get smaller bonuses
5) a few players are lost to other sports, but not as many as the pessimists believe
6) no diminuation in talent from Latin America and elsewhere
7) no discernable impact on competitive balance
8) the fears about it ruining everything don’t come true

I would intentially draft some kid and offer him the minimum. Not the $6.2 MM recomended slot lets say… 2.0M and nothing more, then he forgoes signing with you and you get to spend you’re pool of money highly on you’re next few draft round picks that year and reel in some other young prosects other teams might shy away from due to money.

And then next year you’re left with a top 3 pick in the draft thats loaded in addition to you’re present day 1st rounder.

I don’t know John, I’m with you in that its not as bad as it initially sounded but It still needs work IMO.

I’ve also heard , that as an example, the Astros #1 overall pick this year is slotted at around $ 7.2MM and if you take a guy and offer him more than 5 % of that recommended slot you get a HUGE luxury tax down on you and you lose you’re 1st round pick the following year. - So THATS A hard cap right there. If you get a one in a generation talent like a Strasburg, Harper go for it but you might not be picking in round 1 next year.

I suppose the guy being taken has less leverage and therefor better sign for at least near rec. slot because he ain’t going to be getting anymore money the following year, then again this CBA arrangment is only 5 years.

I want to know more about this lottery thing. Ten smallest markets and ten lowest payrolls entered inton a 6 pick lottery….. Thoughts?