Community Pitching Prospect Discussion (#8-15)

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 8:19 PM EST

I'm setting up a separate discussion thread which I am going to group by 5s after the initials ones. Here is a place to discuss who should be in the next few prospects taken. Try to keep the discussion to players you would seriously consider taking very soon, because there will be future threads to discuss the next tiers of players. Hopefully this will lead to more exhaustive debates, without having to start and re-start every 24 hours.

Currently we are on pitching prospect #8, which seems to be nearing the end of the bundy/hultzen debate, but the next group of pitchers haven't been discussed too much at all. I'll create a new discussion thread after pitching prospect #15 is decided, but the discussion can continue with regards to players still off the poll, of course.

If people don't like my idea, please say so, and I'll delete these threads, and we'll keep all the discussion in the polls.

PITCHING RESULTS SO FAR:

#01 - MATT MOORE - 91.0%

#02 - JULIO TEHERAN - 57.3%

#03 - SHELBY MILLER - 66.7%

#04 - TREVOR BAUER - 40.0%

#05 - TYLER SKAGGS - 30.0%

#06 - GERRIT COLE - 24.3% (65.2% In Runoff)

#07 - JAMESON TAILLON - 26.0% (34.7 In 3-Way Runoff, 51.2% In 2-Way Runoff)

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Comments

Well for pitchers

I have them ranked as follows:

7. Danny Hultzen
9. Drew Pomeranz
10. James Paxton
11. Taijuan Walker
12. Carlos Martinez
13. Jacob Turner
14. Dylan Bundy
15. Matt Harvey

Probably the biggest name missing is Jarrod Parker, but he is next for me at 16. I am probably higher than most on Paxton, and lower than most on Bundy, but the rest are probably reasonable for their placement. I am unsure on where the community is on Harvey, and will be interested to see what other pitcher people are looking at around this spot.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 16, 2025 8:36 PM EST reply actions

I am probably higher than most on Paxton as well

after Hultzen and Bundy get on

I think I will go Pomeranz, Paxton, May, Harvey, Parker, A. Bradley

by blue bulldog on Nov 16, 2025 10:01 PM EST up reply actions

my next 5...

would be Turner, Hultzen, Walker, Bundy, A Bradley. Pomeranz gets consideration, too. After them, I see a considerable dropoff. I’m voting for Walker rt now.

Again, listing the players already selected here would be helpful.

BTW, auclairkeithbc, great job so far!

by rhd on Nov 16, 2025 8:38 PM EST reply actions

I would start the next discussion page when we start poll 14

Otherwise the discussion will be less relevant for the fifteenth spot.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 16, 2025 8:45 PM EST reply actions

Uh

Well, we’ll be discussing the 15th spot in this thread. Let’s just see how it goes. It should be a fluid discussion, not a closed one. As the list moves on, so will the discussion. Honestly, we could do just one discussion thread for each, but I don’t want people to have to wade through 500 post threads.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 16, 2025 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

Move the numbers up one

Had a brain fart. Start 16-20 discussion at poll 15.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 16, 2025 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

Next 5

Parker
Turner
Paxton
Hultzen
Bundy

by BryceHarper on Nov 16, 2025 9:05 PM EST reply actions

Next 5

Martinez
Hultzen
Walker
Parker
Turner

by Bososx13 on Nov 16, 2025 9:15 PM EST reply actions

Jacob Turner

He’s only about three months and change older than Carlos Martinez. Just throwing that out there. I’ve got Hultzen, Turner, Taijuan Walker, Jarrod Parker, Carlos Martinezwith my next five.

by Brownson on Nov 16, 2025 11:54 PM EST reply actions

Just Curious ...

How you all justify leaving Pomeranz off these lists? I like Martinez/Walker as much as the next guy, but wow … over Pomeranz? And Paxton over Pomeranz is crazy to me. Man, I like to shoot for the upside too, but these guys carry such heavy risk compared to Pomeranz, who has alrady pitched in the show.

by Traindogger on Nov 17, 2025 7:59 AM EST reply actions

I agree with you that Pom should be higher (he is second in line for me)

But the great thing about this list is seeing how community members weigh things like floor vs. ceiling, projectability vs. safeness.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 8:59 AM EST up reply actions

I agree with that ...

One man’s opinion but as a community I think we are far too prone to falling for the flavor of the month. I think the Bogaerts/Taveras discussion on the other thread highlights this … I predeict we as a community are going to be way higher than other reputable lists on these guys … same for guys like Paxton, and apparently Walker/Martinez, both of whom I really like. Maybe we should add Tyrell Jenkins to this discussion too … He could be the next Doc Gooden ;)

by Traindogger on Nov 17, 2025 9:16 AM EST up reply actions

I'm the biggest Tavares supporter

. . . but, I actually agree with you. I respect a prospect like Pomeranz and think, especially with a pitcher, that we should respect one that is close to making a contribution and hasn’t got hurt.

That said, it is also important not to overlook a future star position player just because one thinks he is far from the big leagues.

Last year the consensus top 9 lists on prospects - the experts in the field - put Profar at an average of 52nd. I think it was soon enough to put him much, much, higher. As well as Machado, Lawrie, and some other guys who were lower than expected.

The whole debate over Bogaerts and Tavares is for exactly that point. I’d be very proud a few years down the line to have BOTH of those guys much higher than anybody else’s list. It could look pretty smart in a few years.

There is a balance to be had here.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

Only partially agree

Walker is a bona-fide ace in the making. His upside makes his value > Pomeranz to me. Martinez though lost a little bit of his luster. His mechanics leave a little to be desired, and some scouts are wondering whether he ends up as a starter or in the pen. Based off that, I have Pomeranz higher.

I don’t see the argument of Paxton > Pomeranz. They are somewhat similar pitchers, but Pomeranz has the higher floor having already pitched in the bigs.

by guru4u on Nov 17, 2025 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

How?

How does having pitched in the big leagues for 13 innings make a guy’s floor higher? Paxton could have easily been called up by the Ms in September and pitched 13 innuings.. We would then THINK his floor was higher but, that would not make it so, would it?

I think Pomeranz is going to be a very good major league pitcher, Im justy questioning that part of your reasoning.

" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin

by casejud on Nov 17, 2025 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

i don't see Pom as having that high of a ceiling

should be a solid middle of the rotation guy, but for an elite prospect, i want more.
his makeup concerns me as well. not that i’ve seen anything baseball wise to suggest he won’t succeed, but the arrest thing could indicate a maturity issue, which could impede his growth. At the very least, it’s enough of a question mark (for me) to add risk to what would otherwise be a pretty safe prospect.

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 17, 2025 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

this mid-rotation stuff ...

is bunk. You are entitled to your opinion, but here is what Sickels wrote on Pom in Prospect of the Day:

Assuming he stays healthy and avoids unexpected command lapses, he profiles as a number two starter at least. If his changeup develops to its maximum potential, he can be a genuine number one rotation anchor in the mode of Cliff Lee or Clayton Kershaw.

I guess that’s not enough upside for you?

by Traindogger on Nov 17, 2025 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

lee or kershaw is a pipe dream

i don’t know just have a bad feeling about him. His mechanics are sloppy and have a lot of moving parts., and he has command issues and needs to improve his changeup. I just wonder if he will work hard enough, or has the maturity to work as hard as he will need to to be a #1 or #2 SP. If Cleveland thought there was a decent change he’d be a #1 or even #2 SP, would they have given up him and AND Alex White for ubaldo? i don’t think they would have.
Of course it’s incredibly difficult to predict a guys makeup and this is just a guess, but for me, i think there are enough question marks there to negatively impact the certainty of his success.

upside, but should be a solid 3.

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 17, 2025 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

change = chance

by DeathSpeculum on Nov 17, 2025 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

I'm curious

Why people don’t have Jarrod Parker in their top 5s? John gave him an A- and ranked him ahead of Skaggs. I don’t quite agree with that, but I do see Parker as having a killer upside still. I would rather put my hopes in him than Taijuan Walker to actually be a top of the rotation guy, and I like Taijuan too.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 17, 2025 11:27 AM EST reply actions

Parker didn't dominate this year

Fairly low K-rate, fairly high BB-rate, only 2 K/BB, and a fairly low BABIP of .288. I want to see him dominate before I go crazy over him. He kind of reminds me of Kyle Drabek last year, who I was lower on than the rest of the community as well.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

But the stuff is there.

Did you think Drabek had elite stuff?

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 17, 2025 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

No

But a lot of people did

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

And you don't think Parker has good stuff?

Or you just don’t like his stats from this past season?

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 17, 2025 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

I just like to see the reports of stuff matched by dominant results

There have been plenty of “great stuff” pitchers who haven’t panned out. Hell, as a Yankees fan, I have to deal with AJ Burnett. I like Parker, but I am hesitant because great stuff without great results usually means lack of command or other issues that may hinder him at higher levels.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 17, 2025 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

+1

this is exactly how i feel

people fall in love with stuff too often imo. just because you have great stuff, doesn’t mean you will ever figure out the command to make a good SP.

i had the exact same issue, with people ranking Drabek as high as they were last year.

by blue bulldog on Nov 17, 2025 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

But that was for different reasons

Not because of his stuff.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 17, 2025 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

I still have Pomeranz and Turner ahead of him, but Parker is squarely third on my pitching list, just ahead of Taijuan Walker. AJ Cole would round out my next five(assuming Hultzen is off the board here). I think he’s a guy that is getting overlooked quite a bit. Big time ceiling, fell due to bonus demands. Had a great year too, though he was handled with kid’s gloves by the Nats.

http://bullpenbanter.com

RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage

by gatling on Nov 17, 2025 3:18 PM EST up reply actions