Draft Prospect of the Day: Clate Schmidt

by Matt Garrioch on Apr 17, 2025 11:00 AM EDT

Clate Schmidt, RHP, Acworth, GA

Schmidt is a lean, athletic 6'2, 180 LBS. He is also a very good SS for his high school team and is the best athlete on the field. That will change in pro ball but he will be the type of player that will be able to adjust quickly and hopefully repeat his delivery better due to great athleticism. He rotates back and delivers from a 3/4 delivery that does have some effort. He consistently is in the 91-94 range and is as high as 96, his fastball has good life and he commands it well. He was one of the best pitchers at the PG All-American Game, if not the best, in my opinion.

His breaking ball is one of the best in the draft on the prep side. At least in the top 4 along with Lucas Giolito, Max Fried and Ty Hensley. His changeup is not a weapon at this point but he has had little need to work on it as well.

Schmidt is a very good pitching prospect and reminds me of Jake Odorizzi in 2008. I could see him developing into a similar prospect. I personally like him more than I should probably, and could see him as a middle of the first round type of pick. If he slides and doesn't sign, Clemson is where he is signed to attend college.

CLATE SCHMIDT (via Fidog91)

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One of the couple arms I want the Yankees to go after in the first round

I know they will go with some toolsy high schooler outside of everyone’s top 100, but it would be nice to see them start picking up some prep arms again.

by cookiedabookie on Apr 17, 2025 11:53 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks for these posts, Matt

I like his projectable frame and arm speed, but I don’t really like Schmidt’s mechanics. Not only does he seem to be a max effort thrower, but I also don’t like how he abruptly slows down his motion after he releases the ball. That puts a lot of strain on the shoulder.

One request that I want to make, Matt, is that you start including birthdates on all of these prospects that you profile. Given the copious and groundbreaking statistical analysis that Rany Jazayerli posted on the BaseballProspectus website last October, I think that it’s foolish not to take relative ages into account for all of the draft prospect - most especially for the high schoolers.

For the record, Schmidt was born on 12/10/93. He’ll be 18 years and 177 days old on the first day of the June draft, which places him well into the 2nd worst category (the “old players”) in Jazayerli’s study.

My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Apr 17, 2025 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

For those that aren’t familiar to the study I’m referring to, here are the links to the 2-part post:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15306

My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Apr 17, 2025 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

It's a great study

But the problem with applying it is it’s looking backwards. It’s quite possible that in the last 10 years this “inefficency” has been accounted for, and player age is being properly (or much more properly) taken into account - older players being debited, young players credited

by MjwW on Apr 17, 2025 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I will post a

list of birthdates for top prospects when I post my mid-season draft board soon. Some I can’t find but I will have most. I am thinking about doing an MLB Draft Book covering the better prospects in the draft, similar to what you can find for the NFL Draft. It won’t have the production quality this year but maybe down the line as I get more established and get more photos.

I don’t see the problem of looking backwards with Rany’s study. It may make some players over rated if they weigh it too heavy. In my countless hours of studying prospects, age to level is the best tool I have found in rating a prospect compared to any other stat but it has to be taken in context.

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by Matt Garrioch on Apr 17, 2025 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

age to level

I tend to agree, but then, if an older HS player starts in Low-A and the younger one in ExST and then SS ball, the perceived advantage on draft day may be ameliorated. Draft age and ARL don’t necessarily dovetail, right? And when we’re talking about the “best” players, ARL is more important. How old was Bundy for his class, for instance, and does it matter if he’s ready to pitch in Double-A by the end of the year?

by charles wallace on Apr 17, 2025 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but in my experience, statistically speaking, the older HS draftees don’t start out in a hgher pro league than the other HS prospects in their draft class. Two points to remember:

1. We are talking only about statistics in all of these posted studies - individual prospects are going to beat the odds. These age attributes of individual prospects shouldn’t cancel out their scouting reports, but it should lead to skepticism - especially with respect to how they statistically perform in games.

2. The extreme age differences are the ones that really make a difference. Guys that are very young or very old for their draft classes or league level are where you see the greatest degree of overperformance. For example, Ty Hensley seems like a very, very good prospect at first blush, but then you look and see that his DOB is 7/30/93! He’s a college freshman still playing HS ball. He should be dominating with that huge age difference over his competition.

My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Apr 17, 2025 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

Ages of high school players as well as college players should be compared to their level of skill more than just their age. If a player is raw and is 19.5 at draft time, like Keon Barnum, should be dominating and polish should not be a question. You can’t right them off, but they are a little behind the curve.

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by Matt Garrioch on Apr 17, 2025 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions

http://prospectwire.com is by far the best site that I’ve found for gettting the DOBs of the HS prospects.

My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Apr 17, 2025 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Then you

haven’t clicked on my link here

Just ctrl+f for the player you are looking for. Like I said, though, I’ll have an article up with a list in the near future.

Minor League Ball MLB Prospect Guide
Follow @milbprospects

by Matt Garrioch on Apr 17, 2025 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

Good stuff.

My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Apr 18, 2025 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I fear I wasn't very clear

What I meant is that the study is using historical data (ie, looking backwards), and in the intevening time period, teams could have studied this and adjusted their draft strategy to relfect this. In other words, the inefficiency that once existed, doesn’t necessarily exist today, so you can’t necessarily say “Player A”, who on average is expected to go 20th overall, but is very young (17 and change), so he should really go 12th overall.

As you say, age is very important and I think that study (and it was certainly a fascinating read and good research) certainly adds to the body of knowledge that supports that. But fundamentally, it’s telling us what happened in the past, not what’s necessarily happening now or what should be done in the future.

by MjwW on Apr 18, 2025 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions