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2011 Sleeper Alert! List Review, Part Three

Washington Nationals prospect Brad Peacock (photo by Jeff Gross, Getty Images)

2011 SLEEPER ALERT! LIST REVIEW, Part Three

Every year in the Baseball Prospect Book, I point out players who I think are particularly good sleepers who could break through unexpectedly. Sometimes then pan out (Dan Hudson for example), sometimes they don't, but I try very hard to get ahead of the curve on players like that, especially pitchers.

Let's review the Sleeper Alert! list from the 2011 book (which you can still order by the way!). Here is the third group of 15 alphabetically. We will finish this up tomorrow.

I'm including a brief mention for each player of the reasons they were on the list, if it was stats, scouting reports, intuition, or some combination thereof.

Star-divide

Brett Marshall, RHP, New York Yankees: 3.97 ERA, 77/40 K/BB in 100 innings for High-A Tampa, 100 hits, 1.73 GO/AO. Not great, not terrible. Age 21, rating was based mainly on scouting reports.

Jarrett Martin, LHP, Baltimore Orioles: 4.35 ERA, 67/44 K/BB in 70 innings for Low-A Delmarva, 59 hits, 1.38 GO/AO. Still showing live arm like last year, but command hasn't taken the step forward that I hoped for. Age 21. Rating was based on scouting reports and K/IP ratio.

Kyle McPherson, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.02 ERA with 97/16 K/BB in 110 innings combined between High-A and Double-A, 99 hits. A very fine season so far. Age 23, transitioning well to Double-A. Rating based on stats and scouting reports.

Zach Neal, RHP, Florida Marlins: 4.40 ERA with 77/34 K/BB in 102 innings for Low-A Greensboro, 109 hits. Adequate season but nothing special Age 22. Rating was based on stats and scouting.
Juan Oramas, LHP, San Diego Padres: 2.35 ERA with 47/16 K/BB in 54 innings for Double-A San Antonio, 49 hits. Got killed in one Triple-A start but overall a good season. Age 21. Rating was based on stats and scouting reports.

Brad Peacock, RHP, Washington Nationals: 2.01 ERA with 129/23 K/BB in 99 innings for Double-A Harrisburg, 62 hits. Just promoted to Triple-A, lost first start. Huge breakthrough season overall. Age 23. Rating was based on scouting and the fact that his component ratios were always much better than his ERAs.

Benino Pruneda, RHP, Atlanta Braves: 4.50 ERA with 44/27 K/BB in 42 innings for Double-A Mississippi, 37 hits. Still has good K/IP and H/IP ratios but command problems give him blah numbers overall. Age 22. Rating was based mostly on stats.

Bruce Pugh, RHP, Minnesota Twins: Horrible in Double-A (9.69 ERA, 12/14 K/BB in 13 innings) but much better after demotion to High-A (3.90 ERA, 39/9 K/BB in 32 innings, 11 saves). Still interesting but inability to transition was disappointing. Turned 23 yesterday. Rating was based on stats and scouting reports.

J. P. Ramirez, OF, Washington Nationals: Hitting .229/.283/.354 with 21 walks, 54 strikeouts in 297 at-bats for High-A Potomac. Very disappointing season. Age 21. Rating was based on scouting reports and stats.

Neil Ramirez, RHP, Texas Rangers: 3.68 ERA with 85/35 K/BB in 73 innings for Triple-A Round Rock, 63 hits. A fine breakout season at age 22 despite skipping two levels. Rating was based on stats and scouting reports.

Henry Ramos, OF, Boston Red Sox: Hitting .276/.302/.392 with eight walks, 32 strikeouts in 181 at-bats for Low-A Greenville. Still quite raw, but very young at age 19 and remains promising. Rating was based scouting reports and stats.

Austin Reed, RHP, Chicago Cubs: 8.37 ERA with 12/10 K/BB in 24 innings for Boise in the Northwest League, 32 hits, 2.06 GO/AO. High school pick from '10 draft just getting started with his career. Age 19. Rating was based mostly on scouting reports.

Andre Rienzo, RHP, Chicago White Sox: 3.83 ERA with 86/50 K/BB in 85 innings for High-A Winston-Salem, 87 hits. Strong K/IP ratio but big spike in his walk rate this year, just went on DL. Age 23. Rating based mainly on stats with some scouting input.

Donn Roach, RHP, Los Angeles Angels: 3.97 ERA, 43/14 K/BB in 48 innings for Low-A Cedar Rapids, 51 hits, 3.76 GO/AO. Unusually high ground ball rate and he'll pick up some strikeouts too. I'm disappointed they are using him as a reliever given his success as a starter in junior college. Age 21. Rating based on stats and scouting.

Nate Roberts, OF, Minnesota Twins: Hitting .295/.434/.415 with nine steals for Low-A Beloit. On-base machine with doubles power, could hit more homers in time. Age 22. Rating based on stats and scouting reports.

This looks like a stronger group than the first batch of 30. Peacock was the big hit here, with Neal Ramirez second and Oramas, McPherson, and Roberts also performing well.

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Comments

Display:

Curious

as to what ranking (exact or ballpark) you would give McPherson if the season ended today? If he continues pitching well in AA, what grade could he obtain going into next year? He certainly has been a pleasent surprise for Pirates fans.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 19, 2025 12:21 PM EDT reply actions  

I like Roberts, and thought he was a sleeper going into the draft last year

but unless he is just the 2nd coming of Craig Biggio is OBP is slanted heavily based on being human target in the batters box this year. He has been hit by more pitches than he has walks.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 19, 2025 2:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Great calls on Peacock and Ramirez

You seem to be doing a lot better with the pitchers then the hitters. Any thoughts as to why?

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Jul 19, 2025 3:38 PM EDT reply actions  

pitchers

Well, when I started doing this I put a lot of effort into learning to analyze pitchers, since “pitchers are unpredictable” was the mantra.

It has gotten to the point now where my pitching lists tend to be better than my hitting lists.

by John Sickels on Jul 19, 2025 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

It also seems to me that pitchers are more scattered in terms of their amateur backgrounds. Most impact hitters are either high draft picks or high-profile international signings (though there is a large segment of less-heralded international signings who become very good prospects after a few years in instructionals). Seems like a lot more interesting pitching prospects than hitters come out of nowhere.

by limozeen on Jul 19, 2025 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any reason why?

Is it stat based or is it easier to see something with your eye when it comes to pitching? I always found that when you watch a good pitcher for the first time you often get that gut feeling about his stuff. I remember watching Dontrelle Willis for the first time and thinking this guy would be damn good (too bad he couldn’t keep it up for more than 4 years).

Big Sexy

Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey

by King Billy Royal on Jul 20, 2025 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Really interested in Part Four -- especially your thoughts about Julio Rodriguez

His ERA and WHIP look fine on the surface, but from last year in Lakewood, his BB/PA is up, his K/PA is almost cut in half, GB% down, HR% up, and his FIP is more than double what it was at Lakewood. Just wondering if I’m looking at things too closely here, or if you have some concern. Thanks!

by Ryno1984 on Jul 19, 2025 4:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Neil Ramirez

Great call on Neil Ramirez. I hope these shoulder woes recently are just minor.

by John Black on Jul 19, 2025 5:39 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Austin Reed

I didn’t know his GB/FB was that good so far in his 24 IP.

Any recent scouting reports on him?

by SenorGato on Jul 23, 2025 9:17 PM EDT reply actions  

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