Pittsburgh Pirates Preliminary Prospect List
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 6:00 PM EST
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PrintI have 39 players here, including two Rule 5 guys and a trade adjustment that needs to be made.
Stetson Allie RHP
Nate Baker LHP
Josh Bell OF
Colten Brewer RHP
Ramon Cabrera C
Colton Cain LHP
Eliecer Cardenas RHP
Gerrit Cole RHP
Mike Colla RHP
Jarek Cunningham 2B
Matt Curry 1B
Alex Dickerson 1B
Wes Freeman OF
Tyler Glasnow RHP
Eleyvs Gonzalez INF
Robbie Grossman OF
Alen Hanson INF
Matt Hague 1B
Luis Heredia RHP
Clay Holmes RHP
Phil Irwin RHP
Nick Kingham RHP
Jeff Locke LHP
Brett Lorin RHP rule 5 to diamondbacks
Drew Maggi SS
Starling Marte OF
Kyle McPherson RHP
Jordy Mercer SS
Bryan Morris RHP
Gift Ngoepe SS
Gustavo Nunez SS rule 5 from tigers, edit to reflect
Jose Osuna 1B-OF
Rudy Owens LHP
Brooks Pounders RHP trade to royals for Y. Navarro, edit to reflect
Mel Rojas OF
Tony Sanchez C
Jameson Taillon RHP
Zack Von Rosenberg RHP
Duke Welker RHP
Justin Wilson LHP
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I think you should include Gorkys Hernandez and Zack Dodson. Hernandez is almost certain to have some kind of MLB career as a fifth outfielder at least, and there’s a small chance he could be a regular. Dodson might be the best of the HS pitchers taken in the 2009 draft. He has decent stuff, he held his own statistically last year and I specifically remember KLaw saying he looked better than ZVR and Cain.
Three other guys that I’d include, though I don’t feel as strongly about them, are Ryan Hafner, Joely Rodriguez, and Jake Burnette. Hafner had an okay first season in the NYPL, and his changeup got pretty good reviews. He needs to add velo, but he’s still young and incredibly projectable. Rodriguez missed basically all of 2011, but he’s a huge sleeper IMO. Low 90s fastball with movement from the left side and a potentially plus curve. He could be a total flameout, but he’s got significant upside. Burnette was just drafted in 2011, and he stands out from the other projectable HS pitchers the Pirates took by already having three pitches, being a tremendous athlete, and being a two-sport guy who could take off now that he’s dedicating himself to baseball.
Assuming you want to keep the rule 5 guys and Hague in there, I’d remove Welker, Colla, Cardenas, Pounders, and Baker. Welker and Cardenas are already relievers and have a lot of work to do to even make it to the majors in that role. Pounders, Baker, and Colla seem to me like relievers in the long run, too. You could probably lose Elevys Gonzalez without losing too much sleep, too.
by epoc on Dec 22, 2025 7:21 PM EST reply actions
etc
Pounders is going over to the Royals list due to Navarro trade.
I am really bored with Gorkys at this point, lol. I’m no big fan of Welker but he was added to the 40man.
Dodson I like. I looked at the other guys but didn’t go for them with various reasons. I didn’t go with Burnette due to current fastball being mediocre but I agree he is interesting. I looked at Hafner but strikeout rate way low in NYP. I don’t know anything about Joely but rookie ball numbers preinjury not impressive. In a thinner system he could rate but there are other guys I would rather include at this point.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
John
You have to factor in the fact that our current minor league regime is HEAVILY focused on fastball command. Example, Tallion’s K rate would’ve been in the double digits if he threw his regular repotiore. As they advance they start throwing more secondary pitches. It’s worked for some (McPherson the prime example) and a disaster for a few others. Gerrit Cole will start at Bradenton due in large part to his shaky command.
by BadAndy on Dec 22, 2025 7:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah, i've heard that fastball command thing but I've never seen any evidence that it means we can discard the sabermetric side. They both matter
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
Question
on that. As I’ve kinda felt my way through learning about prospecting, I’ve come to the tentative conclusion that a scale for evaluating prospects exists.
At lower levels, scouting reports matter more than they do at higher levels. Conversely, sabermetric numbers matter more at higher levels and less at lower levels. They begin to converge at A ball, and really meet up at A+ and AA ball.
Another way to put it would be to just say, that if you see a guy with elite numbers at SS ball (for example), it would be smart to be wary unless that player has a favorable scouting report. In that same vein, a player with an elite scouting report who puts up poor numbers at low levels will be excused. They will be excused more than a player with an elite scouting report who puts up poor numbers at high levels. In addition, a player with a mediocre scouting report who still manages to put up very good numbers at a high level will be given more of a benefit of a doubt than compared to low levels.
I hope that makes at least some sense. Feel free to tell me I’m flat wrong or clarify and expound.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
Yeah, that makes perfect sense and that is generally the way I do things.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:54 PM EST up reply actions
although
Although if the guy at lower levels has elite scouting reports and REALLY BAD numbers, as opposed to just “poor” ones, that tends to make me skeptical. So many of those tools guys just never, ever pan out.
Of course, the same can be said for college first basemen who tear up the Pioneer League but aren’t drafted early.
It is all a balancing act.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
Of course
Just wanted to make sure I’m not completely making this stuff up. Thanks. Reading your work and this site regularly have taught me alot.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
gorkys
I’ve seen enough of him to conclude that he’ll never hit sufficiently to be of much use.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'd
pretty much echo what Epoc said. Hernandez and Dodson both need to be on this list in my opinion. Both slot into my personal top 20 (#18 and #16 respectively).
Of the other three Epoc echoes, I like Ryan Hafner, more than the other two. I’d remove Cardenas, Pounders, and Baker.
A sleeper I really like is Davydas Neverauskas. This source saw Neverauskas hit 94 last year during spring training as a kid who had just hit 18. He would have been a HS senior, and a raw 6’3, ,175 lb HS senior hitting in the mid 90’s and sitting in the low 90’s would garner significant attention come draft time. He would probably be a pick in the top 5 rounds or so, and I feel like that type of guy (Clay Holmes for example) would at least get consideration for your list. Admittedly, Davydas is very raw and his secondaries are basically non-existent, which may hurt his potential draft stock had he been a HS senior.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
I really don't want to write about Gorkys. Who of the younger guys should I cut to make room for him?
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
That's
fine about Gorkys. I was writing when you posted your response to Epoc. I still think his glove is elite enough to be a below-average or average starting CF, but I’ve never seen him hit. If you are convinced he can’t hit enough to even be 4th or 5th outfielder, then cut him.
I don’t think Baker belongs on this list. If you do want to add Gorkys and cut a HS pitcher, I’d cut Brewer. I’d also cut a guy like Drew Maggi ahead of both Gorkys and Dodson, and Neverauskas for that matter.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
maggi is very marginal. plausable cut there.
It’s the Grade C guys that cause the biggest arguments
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
I saw
Maggi several times this summer. He hustles and all those good intangible things, but he didn’t impress me otherwise. He’s not a bad guy to have as your 40th-50th best prospect in your system, but that’s about where I’d peg him right now.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 7:54 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
I have marginal guys like that for other teams who are 1) written up already but 2) likely gonna get cut. I’m running about 70 pages over right now.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
mel rojas jr
Seems to fit the mold
by BadAndy on Dec 22, 2025 8:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
No no
way too toolsy to get rid of. Cut Freeman over him for toolsy outfielders.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
+1 on DN from Lithuania. Very interesting.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
cardenas
Cardenas is relief fodder but I had him in there because of the Diaz trade. Cuttable.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
list
This is mostly just swapping out different grade C guys. I saw Colla in arizona and wasn’t impressed, so he’s cuttable. Curry is marginal for a 1B so he’s out. Will put in Dodson and Gorkys and the lithuanian dude.
Stetson Allie RHP
Nate Baker LHP
Josh Bell OF
Colten Brewer RHP
Ramon Cabrera C
Colton Cain LHP
Gerrit Cole RHP
Jarek Cunningham 2B
Alex Dickerson 1B
Zach Dodson LHP
Wes Freeman OF
Tyler Glasnow RHP
Eleyvs Gonzalez INF
Robbie Grossman OF
Alen Hanson INF
Matt Hague 1B
Luis Heredia RHP
Gorkys Hernandez OF
Clay Holmes RHP
Phil Irwin RHP
Nick Kingham RHP
Jeff Locke LHP
Brett Lorin RHP rule 5 to diamondbacks
Drew Maggi SS
Starling Marte OF
Kyle McPherson RHP
Jordy Mercer SS
Bryan Morris RHP
Davydas Neverauskas RHP
Gift Ngoepe SS
Gustavo Nunez SS rule 5 from tigers, adjust
Jose Osuna 1B-OF
Rudy Owens LHP
Brooks Pounders RHP trade to royals for Navarro, adjust
Mel Rojas OF
Tony Sanchez C
Jameson Taillon RHP
Zack Von Rosenberg RHP
Duke Welker RHP
Justin Wilson LHP
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:50 PM EST reply actions
I like
Curry. He struggled at AA, but mashed at Low-A (which he should have done) and showed promise after his promotion.
I’d personally keep him over several guys on this list, including Maggi, Baker, and Negope and I wouldn’t even think twice about it.
Of the current list, those would be my first 3 cuts.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
curry
I thought his swing looked long in college and felt AA pitchers exposed this. However, he still has a chance.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that Curry’s cuttable, but I think if you want to cut a marginal 1B it should be Hague. Curry’s at least got enough power for the position.
by epoc on Dec 22, 2025 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
dickerson is miles better than Curry
Wouldn’t be surprised to see Dickerson start at Bradenton and to go even further see Dickerson make it to the Burgh before Curry (who will ultimately be trade bait for someone)
by BadAndy on Dec 22, 2025 8:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
baker
Everybody is down on Baker but I’ve always felt he had a shot. He might get cut as I research. I am desperate for room.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 7:52 PM EST reply actions
baker vs. curry
Baker was repeating H-A and didn’t really improve, which is a strike against him. Curry may get reinstated.
I have to get this locked down in 10-15 minutes.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 8:01 PM EST reply actions
I think
you could safely take Baker out as well as Maggi. Forgot to add that when I saw Maggi, he didn’t really look like had the range/arm to stick at SS in the long-term. If he does, he will be below-average. A move to 2B severely knocks his prospect status.
I agree on Gonzalez (from above) that he could be cut, and if you are desperate for room, Wesley Freeman. He bounced back nicely, but the odds are severely stacked against him.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2025 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
baker
I’m gonna resist peer pressure on Baker and keep him.
Freeman….long odds, yeah. We’ll see if there is room.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
ok
OK, final list. You can argue about the Grade Cs but I have to make some decisions. All the guys who have to be included are here in my view.
Stetson Allie RHP
Nate Baker LHP
Josh Bell OF
Colten Brewer RHP
Ramon Cabrera C
Colton Cain LHP
Gerrit Cole RHP
Jarek Cunningham 2B
Matt Curry 1B
Alex Dickerson 1B
Zach Dodson LHP
Wes Freeman OF
Tyler Glasnow RHP
Eleyvs Gonzalez INF
Robbie Grossman OF
Alen Hanson INF
Matt Hague 1B
Luis Heredia RHP
Gorkys Hernandez OF
Clay Holmes RHP
Phil Irwin RHP
Nick Kingham RHP
Jeff Locke LHP
Brett Lorin RHP rule 5 to diamondbacks
Starling Marte OF
Kyle McPherson RHP
Jordy Mercer SS
Bryan Morris RHP
Davydas Neverauskas RHP
Gustavo Nunez SS rule 5 from tigers, adjust
Jose Osuna 1B-OF
Rudy Owens LHP
Brooks Pounders RHP trade to royals for Navarro, adjust
Mel Rojas OF
Tony Sanchez C
Jameson Taillon RHP
Zack Von Rosenberg RHP
Duke Welker RHP
Justin Wilson LHP
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 8:03 PM EST reply actions
I agree that you’ve got everyone you need to have. I wouldn’t have cut Ngoepe, though. He’s one of the better sleeper guys in the system, IMO. Among non-40-man guys, Baker, Curry, Freeman, Gonzalez, and Neverauskas are all cuttable, if you need room.
by epoc on Dec 22, 2025 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly, I just can't see how an 18-year-old from Lithuania
who has thrown all of 35 innings in the GCL over the past 2 seasons makes this kind of a list unless his numbers are absolutely dominant and/or the organization’s cupboard is bare. Even if he can occasionally hit 93 mph, so many dozens of things have to go right for him to just get a chance to pitch at the MLB level. I’d advise holding off on putting him on the list until he shows what he can do above the GCL.
by reillocity on Dec 24, 2025 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
I feel the same way. The Pirates have a bunch of guys in short-season ball who are no better or worse than Neverauskas. I’d imagine most teams do. And if you’re going to go down to the risk/reward level of a Neverauskas, I think it makes more sense to look at some of the higher profile (and more talented) international signings like Harold Ramirez, Elvis Escobar, or Jin-de Jhang. The one thing that distinguishes Neverauskas, though, is that he’s from Lithuania, which might be fun to write about.
As far as talent goes, I think Joely Rodriguez deserves a spot more than Neverauskas. They’re both high-risk, high-reward young pitchers in short-season ball. Rodriguez is only about 15 months older, throws a tick harder with better movement, does it from the left side, and has a curve and change as well. The curve in particular shows plus potential.
by epoc on Dec 24, 2025 3:58 AM EST up reply actions
Perhaps John sees an opportunity here to increase his book sales in Lithuania?
by reillocity on Dec 24, 2025 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
One more name
He might lack the ceiling, backstory, and pedigree for this list, but Adalberto Santos can hit (.314/.392/.476 at Bradenton with gap power, solid speed, and plus defense in left - consistent with his previous short season stint and college/juco #s). Might move to second, which sadly wouldn’t work and was old for level (old 23 in his first full pro season.)
I do like him more than a few of the guys on the above list…
by CareyScurry on Dec 22, 2025 8:56 PM EST reply actions
hmm. good catch. i'll take a look at him.
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2025 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
I can't see how Santos couldn't be in the Pirates Top 30.
It’s easy to dismiss his strong 2010 NYP stats given the short season, his age at the time, his draft round, and the 2 years he had just spent playing solid baseball at a strong college program (Oregon St). But when he skips the Pirates low A affiliate completely the following season and posts near-carbon-copy stats at their high A Florida State League club that suggests that the guy can swing the bat and run pretty well. Throw in very similar lefty-righty splits to go along with his pretty good BB% and K% and there’s a lot to like about what he’s done so far at the plate. Santos sort of has the look so far of being the Pirates’ (a right-handed) version of Diamondbacks prospect Adam Eaton, minus the big lefty-righty split.
by reillocity on Dec 24, 2025 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
I just don’t see a path to the majors for Santos. He can’t play up the middle, and he doesn’t have the bat for a corner.
I think it’s worth being a bit skeptical of the numbers people are posting in Bradenton. They’ve only been playing there two years, so the park factors aren’t conclusive yet, but it is playing like a hitters’ park (within a pitchers’ league, of course). The team batted .278/.357/.422 last year, easily leading the league in each category. They scored about 0.7 runs per game better than average. It was pretty much the same story last year, when marginal guys like Jeremy Farrell, Brock Holt, Eric Fryer, and even James Skelton posted some pretty interesting numbers. I don’t think Santos, Elevys Gonzalez, Ramon Cabrera, and Carlos Paulino are any more talented than last year’s group.
Holt in particular is an interesting case, because he was a college draftee who hit well in the NYPL and then jumped straight to Bradenton where he continued to hit well, just like Santos. I remember people talking last year about what a good pure hitter Holt was, but he moved up to AA and didn’t perform nearly as well, and now no one talks about what a good pure hitter he is anymore.
I know this is all conjectural, but I think some skepticism about the numbers coming out of Bradenton is in order.
by epoc on Dec 24, 2025 4:20 AM EST up reply actions
I took a closer look at the Bradenton home-road team splits given your comments.
Bradenton Hitters 2011
Home: .300AVG, .378OBP, .458SLG, 2.6HR%
Road: .253AVG, .331OBP, .383SLG, 1.8HR%
So yes, that’s a pretty extreme disparity for a team that plays on a salty shore (I reckon that Bradenton isn’t 2500 ft above sea level). And yes, Santos posted far superior numbers in Bradenton (.350/.427/.523 vs .269/.344/.421). So that along with the lack of HR power would be his two most prevalent question marks moving forward.
Pitching-wise, the Bradenton home-road differences weren’t so dramatic, save for a definite spike in HR rate that translates over to the R column.
Bradenton Pitchers 2011
Home: 8.73H/9, 4.70R/9, 0.77HR/9
Road: 8.68H/9, 4.44R/9, 0.49HR/9
by reillocity on Dec 24, 2025 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Holt had a pretty solid year at AA. No one ever thought he had a huge ceiling, partially due to his size.
by Mr. E on Dec 26, 2025 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
If you still need to cut some players...
I’d say Freeman and Nunez are cuttable. I’d cut Hague too, but you said you wanted to keep him.
Personally, I’d add Y Navarro.
by rhd on Dec 22, 2025 10:26 PM EST reply actions
Cardenas, Welker, Colla
all extremely marginal players that i would cut.
by even meek on Dec 23, 2025 1:43 PM EST reply actions
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