Comparing Philadelphia Phillies 2012 Top 10 Prospect Lists
Baseball America's Top 10 Phillies Prospect list has been posted. This version doesn't require a subscription.
I posted my own Phillies list on October 28th. Let's compare the lists.
1) Sickels: Trevor May, RHP; BA: May
2) Sickels: Jesse Biddle, LHP; BA: Biddle
3) Sickels: Sebastian Valle, C; BA: Valle
4) Sickels: Brody Colvin, RHP; BA: Jon Pettibone, RHP
5) Sickels: Larry Greene, OF; BA: Phillippe Aumont, RHP
6) Sickels: Justin De Fratus, RHP; BA: Freddy Galvis, SS
7) Sickels: Phillippe Aumont, RHP; BA: De Fratus
8) Sickels: , RHP; BA: Colvin
9) Sickels: Michael Schwimer, RHP; BA: Jiwan James, OF
10) Sickels: Maikel Franco, 3B; BA: Franco
15) Sickels: Pettibone
17) Sickels: Galvis
20) Sickels: James
The top three are the same, but after that there are significant differences. BA is high on Jon Pettibone. I can understand it but I have questions about his secondary pitches and low strikeout rate. If I was doing my list over I would slot him ahead of Schwimer, putting Pettibone at 9 and Schwimer at 11 (I would keep Franco at 10) but it is too late now. They like Freddy Galvis a lot but I have serious doubts that he will ever hit enough to be a regular. Same thing with Jiwan James: he's got great tools but he just hasn't hit much and has shown little skill growth.
I am surprised that Greene didn't make their top ten, especially over James. I'm not surprised they downplay Julio Rodriguez, Matt Forman in the chat section points out that scouts have mixed opinions about him and wonder if his stuff will hold up against better competition. I would point out that Rodriguez is actually younger than Pettibone and put up superior numbers at the same level. Pettibone looks more like a pitcher in person due to a more classic body and smoother mechanics, so he gets better scouting reports.
I think this is a typical dichotomy. Baseball America, while certainly considering the sabermetric side of things, will usually lean towards pure tools when in doubt. I tend to be more sabermetric, though I certainly look at the tools in my analysis.