You're the GM! Minnesota Twins Edition

This by no means is intended to be a holistic strategy; rather I intend to just look at one aspect of the team that—as a lifelong Minneapolis resident, part-time writer, and someone who has watched a solid 5/7ths of every Twins season since 1985—I’ve noticed seems to not be producing its intended outcomes: the draft.

This certainly could be a longer, more well-researched piece, but I don’t want to go all out. Instead, this is merely just some questions I’ve had from watching the draft over the last few years that I wanted to ask to maybe flesh out these thoughts.

First: drafting moldable command/control guys. Can we say this has really worked out well? What percentage of top picks have not only made it to the majors, but lasted more than three seasons with a defensible FIP? Especially when one considers the alternates at picks. It can be argued that teams like TB and Texas additionally are targeting pitchers heavily, so why are their systems so much better?

Second: an almost aversion to drafting HS power/BA combos. I can’t think of a positional player with this combo that has come out of the draft for the Twins in the last five years who has sustained production.

Third: overslot talent. I never see the Twins take risks here and spend in the draft when the opportunity presents itself. I understand we are small market, but that means you still don’t take risks, ever.

Fourth: increased Latin presence. I’ll admit, this is definitely a strong point for the Twins, and not-specifically draft related, but is still a legitimate pipeline of talent into the majors. Should the Twins spend a lot more in foreign signings considering their aversion to signing homegrown talent to large deals?

It would be great to see them attempt to lead in spending in the majors on acquiring Latin—and other foreign talent. It’s fairly clear that the Wild West age of non-draft signees will continue for a bit, and it only makes sense that there would be a proportional amount of baseball talent in the rest of the world to that of a single country. Whatever we are doing here needs to be increased, though not at the risk of damaging what they are already doing. Sustained growth, not just explosive spending.

Not quite rebuilding, but not quite competing either unless everything works out well. I’m focusing on gathering information on which to make the decisions to make this team competitive from 2013-18.

What happens to Justin Morneau and Denard Span post-injury? Can Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes be big league infielders? Can Ben Revere find another level that will make him a useful outfielder? Is Joe Mauer going to be able to continue catching most of the time? Is Liam Hendriks going to work out? Can Kevin Slowey thrive when given the chance?

I’m saving money to spend on next year’s big free agent class. I’m picking up some one-year contracts of guys who can be moved at the deadline. I’m looking for the best time to trade Francisco Liriano. I’m hoping to find something really great with the #2 draft pick. I’m not averse to drafting one or more of the Twins-type college control guys in the supplementary or later rounds, but I also need to see some high-upside talent somewhere. I’d like to get someone close to ready with #2, and someone with upside around the Sano/Arcia timeline with one of whatever other high picks I end up with.

And yeah, I dump Gardy and go to a two-manager system, one for personnel and one for tactics. This is way overdue in the league in general.

1. Offer Cuddyer arbitration and bankm the draft picks
2. Find a taker for Pavano and bank the bucks
3. Find a catcher so Mauer can play a full season (Yankees?)
4. Take a long look at Liriano’s MRI with Dr Job. Keep him if he is clean trade him if any doubts
5.Give Parmalee, Plouffe, Benson, Hughes, Hicks & Revere at least 350 at bats and find out if they can play
6. Get Span a clean bill of health and trade hime to the highest bidder (Mets?)
7. Get a clean bill of health on Mourneau or make a settlement with him or the insurance company
8. Find out what all the young starters can get you. Trade only if you are overwhelmed.

I would stick with the control pitching philosophy. It is true that those types of pitchers are under-valued on the market. It’s just really, really boring to watch. If an opportunity comes up where I can trade for a good pitcher that isn’t necessarily a low-velocity/high-contact guy, I would explore that though, as long as its the right price.
Their current team really isn’t that bad. I would probably go for the high ceiling guys in the draft right now.
I like what Ron is doing, and would keep for at least another year.

1. Trade Denard Span to somebody (Marlins? Nationals?) I like Ben Revere. He has zero power, but his defense is sooo good. Span is probably a bit underrated, but I think he would attract a lot of interesting if put on the trade block. I think he has hit his ceiling, which is something like .265/.330/.355. Teams might still hope to hit that 2009 form.
2. Convert Mauer to a right fielder. His bat is just too valuable to only get 400 PA’s a year. You need to keep him healthy.
3. Hope Morneau regains his form. I think he will put up something closer to his old numbers next year. One bad year should not change a players value. I think he can hit .270/.340/.460 next year.
4. Don’t resign any free agents. Any of them probably be a bad move. I doubt the Twins can contend next year, and all of the impending free agents are already entering their decline.
5. Cross your fingers Chris Parmelee wasn’t a fluke. Obviously, his .390 BABIP will go down, but with an ISO of .237 and a K rate of 14.8%, I can still see him hitting for an acceptable offense. I would put him on the opening day roster as a 1B/DH, and expect something like .255/.320/.400.
6. Trade for Angel Pagan. The outfield defense might need some time to get going with Mauer out there for the first time, so improving left field should be a priority. He is a nice candidate for a rebound, and should be able to hit .275/.325/.390, while providing one of the best corner outfield defense in the game.
7. Go after cheap starting pitching (Chris Volstad, Ricky Nolasco, Jeff Francis, Chris Capauno)
8. Search for a catcher. All of these seem unlikely, but I would call about Matt Wieters, Carlos Santana, Yasmani Grandal, Devin Mesoraco, Wilin Rosario. Try to trade top prospects for one. Again, highly unlikely, but at least worth looking into. If none of them are open, sign Ramon Hernandez.
9. If Francisco Liriano has a good first half, put him on the trade block. Maybe this is a time Grandal, Mesoraco, Rosario would be available.
10. Target Taylor Green, Kyle Seager, Travis Snider, Mike Carp, and Colin Cowgill at the trade deadline.

C: Ramon Hernandez
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Alexi Casilla
SS: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
3B: Danny Valencia
LF: Angel Pagan
CF: Ben Revere
RF: Joe Mauer
DH: Chris Parmelee

Carl Pavano
Scott Baker
Chris Capauno
Francisco Liriano
Kevin Slowey

This team is one year removed from 94 wins. This season was a perfect storm of underperformance and injuries plaguing a team. If, and it’s a big if this team can stay healthy and performances regress to the mean they could be right there again. That said there will be some big changes overall due to free agency and players getting older.

C: Mauer and . . Sign Ryan Doumit to a 2 year deal w/option . . . maybe the next Mike Napoli?

1B: Morneau, Doumit, Mauer

MI: Casilla and . . . I think you consider a trade here for an upgrade. Barmes while alright is getting a little old so he’s not my first option. I look to trade with the Nationals (Espinoza, Lombardozzi, Desmond) or with the Sox for Lowrie. Not sure what it would take but I think the Nats might be interested in Revere.

3B: Valencia

OF: I let Cuddy and Kubel walk to collect the picks so I’m left with Span, Revere and sign DeJesus.

DH: Consider bringing back Kubel here but not likely unless . . .

SP: Trade Pavano, he’s pitched 440 innings at just over a 4.00 ERA over the past 2 seasons. His peripherals dropped this past year, he was arguably the Twins only consistent pitcher in that he made his starts and wasn’t horrible. However I expect a larger dropoff this year and some team looking for a solid backend starter might give up something decent for him in this poor pitching market. Replace him with Slowey/Swarzak/Hendriks

RP: I move Duensing back to the pen to shore it up and I consider bringing Capps back on a 2 year deal as his value is very low. If that doesn’t happen I consider Nathan on a 2 year deal but pay him no more that 5-6 M per year. If neither of those work out I look at bringing in one legit RH reliever to team with Perkins and Duensing to help solidify the 8-9th innings.

Depending on how things play out I strongly consider bringing in either Pena or Kotchman as a backup 1B/DH guy. (say if Kubel says no or they get a lesser backup Catcher than Doumit). Both give a backup option to Morneau and could be decent options at DH (too bad they’re lefties)

Part of the point is to increase defense and hope that this coincides with the healthy return of Span/Mauer/Morneau.

The thing with the Twins is that, if everyone works out, ie Mauer and Morneau are healthy and able to play well, Span is fixed, and Liriano pitches like a top half of the rotation starter, then they can contend, especially in the AL Central, but that relies on a lot of things going right. It’s one of these things that the Twins are actually much better placed than us to decide on, given the medical records and so on that they have, but they need to consider what the probability of having everyone back and contributing actually is, and if it’s not going to happen, then I think they have to look at a full rebuild. What would be worse for them is if some parts work out - I think, for example, there’s a good chance that having a full off-season to rest and build up strength again will really help Mauer, and others don’t - as a non-medical person, I’m less optimistic about the other three that I mentioned - because I think that the Twins can’t contend with, say, adding a fully healthy Mauer to last year’s team, but not having Morneau or Liriano playing at close to 2010 standards.

But the twins really need to trade/draft/develop a #3 type hitter. Mauer is more of a 8-12 HR guy with great avg and obp with lots of doubles, which profiles way better batting 2nd in the lineup

I get going cheap on a stable vet with Dozier getting close, but for what they paid him I think they could have landed someone a little better. But…he fits what they want, so we’ll see.

Really, this team needs to decide on its direction. If you think Mauer and Morneau will return to form, and you’re pretty pot committed on that idea in terms of their contracts, you spend the #2 pick on the top arm that is closest to the majors, bring back Cuddyer (need his versatility and leadership to get the team back on track), a quality backup catcher, and at least one starter who can strike some guys out. If nothing else, you need someone to mix things up so teams aren’t seeing the same pitches every day…

I’m really not comfortable with Valencia either. I’d love a 3B/PH vet to push him.

Now….if they decide it’s rebuilding time, then you let everyone go, garner a nice stash of picks for this draft, and try to clean house. One solid draft could go a long way to replenish this organization.