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BA 2011 Top 20 PCL

1. Brett Lawrie, 3b, Las Vegas 51s (Blue Jays)
2. Dustin Ackley, 2b, Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners)
3. Mike Moustakas, 3b, Omaha Royals
4. Brandon Belt, 1b/of, Fresno Grizzlies (Giants)
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1b, Tucson Padres
6. Dee Gordon, ss, Albuquerque Isotopes (Dodgers)
7. Mike Montgomery, lhp, Omaha Royals
8. Brett Jackson, of, Iowa Cubs
9. Jordan Lyles, rhp, Oklahoma City Redhawks (Astros)
10. Rex Brothers, lhp, Colorado Springs Sky Sox (Rockies)
11. Jemile Weeks, 2b, Sacramento River Cats (Athletics)
12. Martin Perez, lhp, Round Rock Express (Rangers)
13. Leonys Martin, of, Round Rock Express (Rangers)
14. Matt Dominguez, 3b, New Orleans Zephyrs (Marlins)
15. Eric Thames, of, Las Vegas 51s (Blue Jays)
16. Johnny Giavotella, 2b, Omaha Storm Chasers (Royals)
17. Charlie Blackmon, of, Colorado Springs Sky Sox (Rockies)
18. Logan Schafer, of, Nashville Sounds (Brewers)
19. Alex Liddi, 3b, Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners)
20. Collin Cowgill, of, Reno Aces (Diamondbacks)


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Comments

Display:

I would knock down Rizzo a ton

But I’m particularly bearish on him. Otherwise a nice list.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2025 12:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Hello

My new favorite person to disagree with. I’m sure you are going to haul out Rizzo’s wrc or wOBa in his debut with the Padres, with zero regard for the context.

Let’s see, he goes from a great, great hitting environment in aaa, to the major leagues and a park that kills lefty power, at the age of 21, and SURPRISE . . . he struggles a bit!

Nothing to like here or anything . . . a good young lefty bat, with a decent enough eye, big, easy power, and a very solid glove at first, who just turned 22. He would have been one of the best sluggers in the PCL If we just counted the road games.

I’ll have to respectfully disagree with you on him being ranked lower. I think 5th is just right - with a w i d e chasm between 5th and 6th

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 11, 2025 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

It would, however, be nice if the organization and Rizzo didn’t feel they had to completely retool his swing now that he’s arrived at the majors…

by realitypolice on Oct 11, 2025 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

That is usually not a recipe for sucess. A kid has enough on his plate when he gets to the show without doing that. I wasn’t aware of that but, I think he has plenty enough talent to pull through.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 11, 2025 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

It sounds so drastic

the team identifies a change they want him to make in his swing, send him to the Domincan Republic to put it to use. That doesn’t change fact that PCL managers rated him as the best power prospect in the league. Pretty sure he started the year as the youngest bat in the PCL. Nice combination.

by Amish_Willy on Oct 19, 2025 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Incorrect

that would have been eric hosmer folowed by mike moustakas. the two best power bats in the pcl to start the year

by dooblay on Oct 21, 2025 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Uh, no.
Moustakas: 9/11/88
Rizzo: 8/8/89

And Brett Lawrie was the youngest in the PCL to open the year. He’s three months younger than Hosmer, who is two months younger than Rizzo (and Matt Dominguez).

by realitypolice on Oct 22, 2025 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice

Racial and personal slur. That’s some truly pithy offensiveness.

by blackoutyears on Oct 31, 2025 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is the BA PCL top-20 discussion right?

from their write-up on Rizzo: “Though managers rated Rizzo as the league’s best power prospect, he still has some adjustments to make if he’s going to be more consistent and hit for a solid average.”

I’m guessing you don’t have a BA subscription and don’t have those comments readily at hand, but your in luck, the edition with all the league rankings is available at your local bookstore through the end of the month.

by Amish_Willy on Oct 25, 2025 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just think with the positional demands

That his bat was overhyped by the environments in the minors. It’s not just Tucson, it’s the entire PCL. I think he’s more of an average player than a star. Nothing wrong with that, I’d just have him a bit lower on the list.

A year ago, this guy had OPS figures around .800 in more neutral environments in Hi-A and AA. Frankly, that sounds about right to me. It’s not that I don’t like him, I just don’t like him more than guys who have more positional value.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2025 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok

The EL in 2010 was hardly nuetral though, .729 league OPS, and he was 20.

I might agree with you if either Jemile Weeks or Dee Gordon projected to be above average offensively at thier position. Ok, maybe Weeks does - Gordon would do well to be average for a SS.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 11, 2025 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

Rizzo’s OPS+ in relation to the league were always good:

’09 (A) - 148
’09 (A+) - 123
’10 (A+) - 124
’10 (AA) - 121
’11 (AAA) - 158

In ‘09 he hit for a high average without a ton of homerun’s. In ‘10 he hit for a lower average but with a lot of homerun’s. In 2011 he did both.

by Amish_Willy on Oct 26, 2025 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I wouldn’t even necessarily say “the entire PCL”, even . . .the western half of the PCL in particular is filled with high-offense environments.

I think he’s probably a victim more of the quality of play needed to be a high-end 1B than his own failings, although he obviously has work to do. I could see him being a middle of the pack guy, with the potential to play beyond that at times, and a relatively huge bust risk. I have a hard time putting him higher than a Grade B as a result. He’s going to get his share of chances, but at the same time, if he can’t bring it, it’s not impossible to see the Padres resolving their glut of outfielders by moving Blanks or Darnell to 1B.

by mrkupe on Oct 11, 2025 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess I sort of see your point

Except, I don’t look at how players turn out the same way. i feel like I should be able to keep looking at a player - his abilities, his age, his makeup - then make a call on whether he’ll make it or not, barring injury or illness.

I look at Rizzo and see something like the next Kent Hrbek - a very solid big league 1B. Not saying your apraoch is wrong - you just give a range of possibilities (from"beyond middle of the pack guy" to" bust") there. Isn’t that kind of like saying “I don’t know”? Of course we ALL don’t know but, I make a call on a guy - then tend to believe strongly in them.

However, If he does struggle - you have a point - I think Darnell, Blanks, and Rizzo will all be good big league hitters and they don’t all have a position, i don;’t think.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 11, 2025 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gordon seems way high

and Perez very low.

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by Conjunction on Oct 10, 2025 12:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Right.

Especially when you’re 20 years old.

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by alskor on Oct 10, 2025 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

and he still managed a 3.98 FIP.

"By MLB.TV, we can see J. Hamilton's homer, M. Young's clutch, and N. Feliz's explosive. All about Rangers things can be our interest" --South Korean Rangers fan

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by Conjunction on Oct 11, 2025 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm with you

Martin Perez seems entirely, borderline woefully too low. I’ve never really got the whole Devaris Gordon thing either (kind of like pretty much all prog rock).

Also, Jemile Weeks seems pretty low in relation to Gordon & a few others at least who place above him here. Health permitting he’s almost certainly going to be really good (he already is) & I doubt that even half of those guys above him have better careers than Weeks.

by Matt0330 on Oct 11, 2025 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

If overrated prospects are prog rock, Dee Gordon is pretty much Phideaux. Simply beyond my ability to comprehend.

by realitypolice on Oct 11, 2025 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Disagree

Dee Gordon is clearly the Dream Theater of baseball prospects.

by blackoutyears on Oct 11, 2025 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

super awesome back in the beginning but is now getting old and gross?

Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck

by MonkeyEpoxy on Oct 11, 2025 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

As opposed to when

they were young and gross.

by blackoutyears on Oct 11, 2025 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

hey now

iimages and words is all right

Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck

by MonkeyEpoxy on Oct 12, 2025 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Was thinking more physically,

but mostly I was just inundated with them by a friend who was combating another friend’s Operation Mindcrime obsession. Oy.

by blackoutyears on Oct 12, 2025 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Can I just cut and paste this conversation and send it SB to answer their survey about what I like about this online community?

by realitypolice on Oct 12, 2025 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why not?

I’m cutting and pasting it to take to my next psychotherapy session. Damn you, memory!

by blackoutyears on Oct 12, 2025 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Operation Mindcrime is glorious

i’d have to back that friend

Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck

by MonkeyEpoxy on Oct 12, 2025 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll be sure to tell him

You may be the unwitting tiebreaker in a 20-year debate. lol

by blackoutyears on Oct 12, 2025 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Queensryche album apparently

Are you using the dictionary definiton of glorious? Just kidding.

by Matt0330 on Oct 14, 2025 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ha

Aaron Hicks is almost certainly Emerson, Lake & Palmer then.

by Matt0330 on Oct 12, 2025 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just flashed

to an old video I saw of Keith Emerson stabbing knives between the keys of a church organ to elicit horrendous groaning noises. lol

by blackoutyears on Oct 12, 2025 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dear god

Thank you (from the bottom of my soul) for not providing a hyperlink.

by Matt0330 on Oct 14, 2025 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

That works for me

I like both Dee Gordon and Dream Theater

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by OremLK on Oct 13, 2025 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Clearly, you have two things to discuss on your next visit to blackout’s psychotherapist!

by realitypolice on Oct 13, 2025 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm thoroughly perturbed

at the size of the intersection on the Venn diagram of Dream Theater fans and minorleagueball community members. The fact that the circles are even touching is disconcerting.

by blackoutyears on Oct 13, 2025 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gordon

disagree, i think he’s too low! i’d take him over belt and rizzo

by Noah McKinnie Braun on Oct 12, 2025 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Definitely not over Belt

I can see the argument for Rizzo, but Belt can play a serviceable LF and his bat is so much better than either Rizzo’s or (especially) Gordon’s.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 12, 2025 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I agree

I’d take him over Rizzo but not Belt.

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by Jeff Reese on Oct 13, 2025 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Is hit bat 25 runs better than Gordon's?

Because between positional adjustments, defense at said positions, and baserunning I could see Gordon putting up a 25 run advantage. Based on their AAA numbers, Belt has a little bigger advantage than that with bat, but Gordon obviously struggled a lot less transitioning his AAA performance to the majors. I honestly think a case could be made either way on that one. Gun to my head I probably still choose Belt, but I don’t think its as obvious as some make it out to be.

by nixa37 on Oct 13, 2025 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes.

I think it’s rather obvious, but I’m not sold that Gordon hits anywhere close to league average.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 13, 2025 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why can't Gordon hit close to league average?

He was above league average in the PCL and just barely below average (99 wRC+) in the majors at age 23. He was also quite successful offensively in his first two minor league seasons. The only time he really struggled offensively was in his first exposure to AA, and even then he completely skipped over high-A. I honestly don’t see much a reason to think that Gordon won’t be at least around league average offensively.

And if its rather obvious that Belt is going to be that much better offensively, it should be pretty easy for you to make a case, correct? Is there really anything outside of his performance in high-A and AA (and its a pretty small sample in AA) to make you think he’ll be that much better offensively? Even when Belt’s buzz was at an all time and Gordon was taking flack for a bad season in AA, Belt barely ranked higher on BA 2011 top 100 list.

by nixa37 on Oct 13, 2025 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Because he had a BABIP of .345

That I highly doubt him sustaining in the big leagues, and has never had a track record of patience or power in the minors. And it’s for good reason - just look at the guy. Do you really think that guy’s going to hit for any kind of power when he ISO’d .076 in the most power-happy league in affiliated ball (the PCL)? If his BABIP regresses to more realistic levels (.290-.300 sounds right given that he really doesn’t put much of a charge into the ball), that 99 wRC+ will tank in a hurry.

As for Belt, do his 2011 Triple-A numbers not count? They’re pretty freakin’ good.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 14, 2025 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

gordons BABIP will be much higher then that cause of his speed... probably around .330

plus the guy never strikes out… hes basically juan pierre at shortstop..

by matthewmafa on Oct 14, 2025 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not for nothin, but Pierre’s minor league numbers (in FAR less flattering hitting environments and also making the Low-A to Double-A jump) were markedly better than Gordon’s.

by realitypolice on Oct 14, 2025 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Markedly better?

I’d argue outside of Gordon’s one season struggling at AA his minor league numbers were actually better than Pierre’s. There first 2 years in the minors they had almost the exact same OPS (and Gordon spent one of those years in the tougher hitting environment). And Gordon’s AAA performance (obviously in the PCL though) was better than Pierre’s AA performance. I’d probably give Pierre the advantage because of Gordon’s AA struggles and the environments, but I actually think there minor league profiles are quite similar.

by nixa37 on Oct 14, 2025 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

In rookie ball, Gordon played in the offense-friendly Pioneer League while Pierre hit in the pitcher-friendly (and more advanced) Northwest League. They posted the exact same OPS of 801.

In their first full seasons, Gordon was in the MWL and Pierre was in the SAL. They posted the exact same OPS of 756, with Pierre in the more challenging offensive environment.

They both jumped to the Southern League the following , where Pierre was a lot more than markedly better.

Pierre went straight to the majors from there. As a 23-year-old, he posted a 793 OPS in the majors (aided, obviously by Coors). As a 23-year-old, Gordon posted a 783 OPS in the PCL (aided, obviously by ABQ and the rest of the PCL West).

So yes, given league context, I’d say markedly better.

by realitypolice on Oct 14, 2025 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

MWL is more challenging offensively than the SAL

And you claimed he posted markedly better numbers without regards to the hitting environments. Also the Northwest League isn’t pitcher friendly from the numbers I’ve seen. From 2007-2009 it was only slightly less hitter friendly than the PCL. As for Pierre’s MLB numbers as a 23 year old, once you adjust for league run environment and home park, Gordon’s offensive numbers are actually better. So basically, Pierre was slightly more impressive at 20 and much more impressive at 22, while Gordon was slightly more impressive at 21 and 23. Again, their numbers from age 20-23 look remarkably similar to me.

by nixa37 on Oct 14, 2025 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll concede the overall numbers aren’t “markedly” better and thank you for fact-checking me.

That said, the statement about the NWL was meant to read “more pitcher friendly” The Pioneer league (at least between 2007-2009) is THE heaviest offensive league in affiliated ball, about .25 R/G more than the PCL and about .5 R/G than the NWL. And as noted, the NWL is a higher level of competition as well. Given those two facts, I stick with assertion that Pierre’s performance in his first pro season was markedly better.

You are however, right that the nod for Low-A belongs to Gordon and that his league-adjusted numbers this year are slightly better than Pierre’s rookie campaign.

Without getting into too long a discussion of it, I’ll just say that Pierre’s 89 OPS+ in the NL in 2001 is more impressive to me than Gordon’s 94 OPS+ in the PCL this year for two key reasons. One is Pierre having jumped from Double-A to the majors rather than a stop in Triple-A. The other is that the run environment in majors in 2001 was really screwed up by steroids. As a result, contextually, the value of the game Juan Pierre was playing (and Dee Gordon is playing now) was understated by OPS+ or other league-context stats.

All of which makes me doubt Gordon’s ability to come close to putting up a .320 wOBA+ in the majors for over a decade (which is to say, match Juan Pierre).

by realitypolice on Oct 14, 2025 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't use OPS+ as a good gauge for these types of players

By wRC+, Gordon posted a 99 this season, compared to a 93 wRC+ for Pierre as a 23 year old. And holding Gordon’s time in AAA against him in that comparison really isn’t fair since Pierre played ~50 games in the majors at 22. I do concede that the steroid era does probably unfairly hurt Pierre’s numbers though.

by nixa37 on Oct 14, 2025 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

At least we can agree on one thing :-)

wRC+ >>> OPS+

OPS is a proxy for performance anyways - it always has been - why do people park-adjust a proxy? Who came up with that idea?…..

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 14, 2025 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

dude gordon did all that in the pioneer league and MWL

with barely any experience in Pro ball too… the guy is just going to keep getting better has he has shown… unlike pierre.

by matthewmafa on Oct 14, 2025 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is why Pierre has a career BABIP of .313?

It was .321 in the last legitimate sample in a neutral environment - the Southern League - against minor-league defenders. I don’t get where “much higher” comes in, unless ten bips is what you meant.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 14, 2025 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

.290-.300 is an incredibly conservative estimation for Gordon's BABIP

You quote his Southern League number, but that was by far the lowest of his career at any stop. Other than that he’s gone .363, .355, .382, and .345 in the majors. There is every reason to believe he will be a high BABIP player in the majors, but an average to below-average one like you suggest.

by nixa37 on Oct 14, 2025 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

.290-.300 is right around average, no?

For as much as speed helps with balls in play, hitting a thousand feeble grounders is going to seriously cut down that benefit. Minor-league defenders, on average, suck. Belt BABIP’d .439 in Hi-A and .373 in Double-A during his breakout year. Trying to use that data as evidence of a sustainably high BABIP in the big leagues seems silly, no?

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 14, 2025 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Its not silly at all

Guys who continually post high BABIPs in the minors tend to carry that skill over to the majors, though obviously it tends to drop as they move up the ladder. The defensive in the minors isn’t nearly as bad as you seem to think. In most leagues the average BABIP is still right around .310, so Gordon has clearly shown the ability to perform way above the normal level at every single stop in the minors.

And honestly, feeble grounders are the ones that are easiest to beat out for infield hits, so hitting a fair amount isn’t a bad things for a speed player. And as others mentioned, Gordon actually does hit fairly hard line drives at times, he just doesn’t generate the loft necessary to get many extra base hits.

by nixa37 on Oct 14, 2025 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

But with that league-average BABIP

There are tons of minor-league fillers who can’t make solid contact dragging it down, which lets even decent slap hitters and speed guys like Gordon easily capable of beating that average soundly.

We’re clearly not going to agree on anything here, but comparing the BABIP’s of Belt and Gordon should seem to indicate that Belt would have the higher BABIP in the big leagues, no?

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 20, 2025 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Funny you bring up Belt's 2011 AAA numbers

You realize he had a .381 BABIP in AAA right? And you’re going to complain about Gordon’s .345 BABIP in the majors? And as I mentioned earlier, even looking at their AAA numbers, Belt only has a little more than a 25 run advantage with his bat.

Getting back to Gordon, it really doesn’t matter if he has a track record of patience or power in the minors, because his bat doesn’t have to be anywhere near as good as Belt’s for him to be a similarly valuable player. And in no way is a .290-.300 BABIP about right for a player with Gordon’s speed. There’s a reason he never posted a BABIP under .323 at any point in his professional career. Lefties with his speed don’t need to put the ball in play with authority to put up a high BABIP because they can rack up infield hits and bunt hits. Chone Figgins for example never put the ball in play with authority, but he still managed a .341 BABIP from 2002 to 2009.

by nixa37 on Oct 14, 2025 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

I tend to agree

that BaBIP expectations s/b different for speed players like Gordon. I didn’t know what to expect when I saw him but I was reasonably impressed. He swings and misses a bit, but I liked the swing itself and he showed solid pitch recognition. I didn’t think the contact was especially weak either. There’s no loft there, but there shouldn’t be. He hit some solid line drives and did a good job shooting for the lines, which spells extra bases. I’ve always liked what I’ve seen from him defensively.

by blackoutyears on Oct 14, 2025 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then let's compare apples to apples

Belt in Triple-A, 2011: .309/.448/.527, BABIP of .381.
Gordon in Triple-A, 2011: .333/.373/.410, BABIP of .379.

It’s the PCL, the predictive value of stats in that league sucks. But I don’t get how you can say that Belt isn’t a dramatically superior hitter to Gordon, and given that Gordon’s wOBA+ (by StatCorner) was exactly league-average at Triple-A, I’m flabbergasted by how this guy is supposed to be a league-average hitter in the major leagues.

Chone Figgins regularly ISO’d over .100 with Anaheim. He wasn’t exactly slapping the ball around the infield like Gordon does.

Gordon never BABIP’d below .323 in the minors because the minors are chock-full of crappy infield defenders. C’mon, now, that’s basic stuff.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 14, 2025 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Never said Belt isn't a superior hitter, but 25 runs in a huge gap to makeup

And your flabbergasted that I’d say Gordon could be an average hitter in the bigs? He was almost exactly average offensively by wRC+ (which does take stolen bases into account, but that isn’t taken into account in the 25 runs I estimated) as a 23 year old in his first exposure to the majors. And I think the park adjustment applied to Gordon’s PCL numbers is likely unfair because the environment doesn’t help him nearly as much as it helps a power hitter for example.

by nixa37 on Oct 14, 2025 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry but, that is not correct

For lefty batters, park factors, Albequerque . .

Singles : 112
Doubles: 123
Triples: 133
Homers: 127

It’s agreat park to hit in for ALL hitters

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 15, 2025 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't say it wasn't a great park for all hitters

I said it helps power hitters more than non-power hitters. Those numbers back that point up. Guys who hit a higher percentage of extra base hits will be helped more than singles hitters.

by nixa37 on Oct 15, 2025 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not only that,

that’s only adjusting for his home park, and I’m pretty sure you said PCL…

by blackoutyears on Oct 15, 2025 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe

I’m not really sure.

Its hard for me to see Gordon not being favored a lot by playing in a park that favors singles for lefty batters more than any park in the PCL and, he’s already playing in the PCL, one of the best hitting environments.

It might not have as much impact as it did for Jerry Sands but, hitting singles is what Dee Gordon does best offensively, right?

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 16, 2025 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

You aren't accounting for the fact that

wRC+ is going to value the high volume of extra singles Gordon hits just as much as the four or five extra home runs some generic Triple-A power hitter connects on, as their value is only different by about a factor of two.

The difference is a lot smaller than those blanket numbers would suggest.

Also, Gordon would get a significant triples boost, no?

A good hitter hits above-league-average in the PCL, regardless of his hit distribution.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 20, 2025 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lyles placement is nice to see

Despite the underwhelming statistical performance at the big-league level, he actually impressed me watching him in person.

by kyuss94 on Oct 10, 2025 12:52 PM EDT reply actions  

looking at the list, though, it's hard to see how most of those players would even have a shot at placing higher than him

Perez we’ve gone over already, but who else was going to place higher than Lyles? I’m not buying on Martin yet and I’m not sure how Weeks’ power will hold up. If you move Perez from 12 to 10, there is a very large gap for me between Nos. 1-10 and 11-20.

by mrkupe on Oct 10, 2025 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brothers seems way too high

He is a reliever with control issues, I’d probably move him down to 19 or 20 on this list.

by cookiedabookie on Oct 10, 2025 12:56 PM EDT reply actions  

He was also

Kimbrel-level filthy.

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by Conjunction on Oct 10, 2025 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

No he wasn't

Come on, Kimbrel had a 1.53 FIP in the majors last year.

by nixa37 on Oct 10, 2025 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't sell Kimbrel short...lol

His FIP was 1.53…in 2010.

In 2011, it was 1.52!

by dbreer23 on Oct 10, 2025 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe not quite there

but 13 K/9 as a rookie is crazy.

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by Conjunction on Oct 10, 2025 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed its crazy

Just not quite Kimbrel level crazy…gotta stick up for my boy

by nixa37 on Oct 10, 2025 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

He also has an impact LH arm, and might well be the closer in COL in 2013

Spot 10 might be a bit generous, but I’d certainly put Brothers ahead of Cowgill, Schafer, Blackmon, and maybe Thames (that’s assuming I put Liddi just before Brothers, at 14).

by dbreer23 on Oct 10, 2025 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

assuming I didn't move any of the other players around

No. 5, ahead of Rizzo, sounds right to me.

by mrkupe on Oct 10, 2025 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

From today's chat...

“Russell (Kansas City): Had he qualified, would Duffy have been a Top 5 guy? Thoughts on his early numbers in the bigs?

“Nathan Rode: Maybe. I would’ve had to think quite a bit about him vs. Montgomery. That’s a solid start in the big leagues for him. With improved command and experience you would expect to see those numbers improve given his stuff. Answering another question about Duffy/Montgomery, I think I’d still take Montgomery. Duffy had more success this year, but despite the numbers, managers had nothing but good things to say about Montgomery. He just needs improved command (sound familiar). His curveball is a swing-and-miss pitch that young hitters would chase out of the zone. More experienced hitters don’t bite as much so he’ll he need to show he can throw it for strikes.”

by dbreer23 on Oct 10, 2025 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Finally some acknowledgement...

that Ackley just may be able to play 2B a little. All the talk of him as a surefire bet to move to the outfield was getting way overblown.

by slamcactus on Oct 10, 2025 8:01 PM EDT reply actions  

It was ridiculous

Spearheaded by the lilliputian one & his ‘scout(s)’ almost assuredly.

Dustin Ackley is fine at 2b; considering his relative inexperience at the position I would venture he very probably has room to get even better.

by Matt0330 on Oct 11, 2025 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Who is the "lilliputian one"?

I was quite wrong about Ackley with the bat but, I once i saw him play a bit in AAA, I always thought he’d be fine at 2B, and he is.

I also re-learned a valuable lesson, which is the same lesson I understood with Brett Lawrie last season: Be vary wary of judging a players hitting numbers when he is learning or playing a defensive position that is tough for him.

We can never really know the exact reasons for these things but, I feel like Ackley’s early struggles with the bat were less luck related, than learning to play 2b related. Great athletes tend to learn fast though. Either way, I should have known better.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 11, 2025 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ha, sorry

ESPN’s Keith Law was who I was referring to. He was pretty insistent that Ackley moving to LF (or at least off of 2b) was basically a formality due to his conversations with scouts throughout the spring/summer.

Maybe he’s backed off that stance since but his usual schitck is to ‘go down with the ship’ so to speak so I doubt it.

by Matt0330 on Oct 11, 2025 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I should have guessed

Matt, this is my major disagreement with some people on here who think that I think I know more than scouts when I make an opinion for myself. I don’t. I just trust my own eyes over a THIRD-PERSON account from “scouts”.

Again and again, I’m forced to either make a choice when I hear one of these opinions from Goldstein, Law, etc. - either they aren’t talking to scouts, or the ones they are talking to don’t know what the hell they are talking about.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 11, 2025 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha

So when somebody says something that you disagree with . . .they are either ignorant or misinformed?

So, how’s that “the world is flat and the entire universe revolves around the Earth” thing working out for you?

by mrkupe on Oct 11, 2025 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

No, you got me wrong

It isn’t a matter of me disagreeing with them, it’s when they turn out to be very very wrong that I iobject. Or, ratgher the percentage of times that these opinions turn out not to be true that makes me not trust them.

You should re-read that very informative article that Frankie Pilierre published on BP that you posted- thanks for that, by the way.

He said that very rarely is there a “scouting concensus” on a player as is often reported.

It really isn’t a matter of say, for example, that I read that someone says that they heard, that Keith Law heard, from scouts, (now making it, what, 4th person?) saying Goldschmidt doesn’t have the bat speed to hit major league pitching or, that Nick Franklin can’t play SS in the big leagues or, Altuve is too small, or whatever. Its that I do not truse that process.

I do not believe that 75 percent of all scouts said that or, even 50 percent. It doesn’t even matter If I disdagree with the opinion stated (though of copurse that makes a huge difference, naturally). I’m sceptical of every link in that chain except the first link - myself, and the last one - that I have little acess to - the actual scouts.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 11, 2025 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think I was the one who posted that article, although yes, it does make good points

There is definitely a broad range of opinions out there about any given player. Why certain ones come up to the surface, I couldn’t tell you. Is it because certain opinions get repeated the most? Is it because those are the opinions that provide the most continuity with previously known information? Is it because they’re the opinions that make the secondary source look best? I don’t know.

I see the range of opinions about an individual player as being best understood as a constantly evolving continuum. I don’t believe there is any value in throwing out “good” or “bad” opinions about a player merely because we disagree with them, or because they do not agree with what we ourselves have personally seen. I’ve seen plenty of players in person and while I have found that at times I disagree with what major publications are reporting about these players, it’d be silly for me to act like I am infallible and the only person who can come up with a well-reasoned and thoughtful analysis. I’m a big believer in “the truth lies somewhere in the middle”.

Goldschmidt is a good example of this. Clearly his bat speed is not a plus, and it’s worth watching. At the same time, that’s only part of the story. He’s clearly able to compensate for that lack of bat speed in other ways, to some extent. In other words, believe it or not, sometimes everybody can be right.

by mrkupe on Oct 11, 2025 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Law

wasn’t the only one, Matt. Callis also rode that train IIRC, and there were others. Callis and many others were also wrong about Robinson Cano — I think Jason Grey just did a “what did we miss?” column it was sucha prevalent attitude — so these things happen. And they’re mostly listening to their scouting contacts. If you have several professional evaluators say the same thing you tend to report it.

by blackoutyears on Oct 11, 2025 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nix

It was Goldstein who wrote the Cano article.

by blackoutyears on Oct 11, 2025 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dave Cameron

also wrote a very negative piece on Cano when he was in the minors, although prospecting isn’t really his area. Forget when that was. He didn’t have a great 2003 but he was young for the levels.

by wobatus on Oct 11, 2025 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's tough

there wasn’t much there statistically — I guess in hindsight you could see the Sally League season as fairly promising — and he was getting poor grades on his speed and defense, which was probably weight more heavily againts him as MIF than it would have been at another position.

by blackoutyears on Oct 11, 2025 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone was wrong about Cano.

He’s the rare bird who’s a much better hitter in the majors than he ever showed signs of being in the minors. If you’re going to judge people by their opinions on Cano, might as well knock down everyone who missed out on other out-of-nowhere guys like Martin Prado and Brandon Inge too.

by slamcactus on Oct 16, 2025 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Inge

is such an odd player though. He was definitely on the radar of most people I knew simply because he was a catcher, and the expectations for offensive production are so much lower. Then he moves to 3B, where his contact issues are less excusable but his defense is fantastic. I don’t know if Prado was out of nowhere either. I tabbed him as a Freddy Sanchez/David DeJesus type offensive producer, which underestimated the power but is close in many regards.

by blackoutyears on Oct 17, 2025 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right

You meen the Robinson Cano who posted a .853 OPS in the EL - .744 was the league average - while also being the second youngest regular player in the league that year and having very good defensive numbers at 2b?

He wasn’t great when he was 19 and 20 but, he was outstanding when he was 21 and 22.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 20, 2025 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Theres alot of futur mlb players here. Alot of good ones if you ask me.

by Jt Malley on Oct 11, 2025 9:57 PM EDT reply actions  

there are always a lot of future MLB players in the AAA leagues

Sometimes they’re not liked as much in the short-term as the younger and rawer prospects in lower levels, but there are almost always interesting finds.

by mrkupe on Oct 11, 2025 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Back end looks a bit thin to me.

The last half dozen names there are guys I like some, but didn’t quite expect to make a league top 20. This doesn’t seem to be one of the deeper leagues to me.

by acerimusdux on Oct 12, 2025 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

A bit surprised to see no Wade Miley

Asked on Twitter, and he qualified. I have him being much better than Cowgill, personally.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 12, 2025 1:39 AM EDT reply actions  

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