Atlanta vs. Arizona vs. Tampa Bay vs. Texas vs. Toronto

I’m actually writing this before I vote to help my thought process.

Atlanta and Arizona strike me as very similar, with unbelievable pitching in their system, but offense that leaves some to be desired. They’re both quite enviable, but truth be told if you asked me to pick one system to start a team with, knowing the attrition rate of pitchers, I may pass up on these for a more well-rounded system. Would be tough though.

The Rays system is somewhat “down” this year, and while I think some are overreacting to that, it’s probably a bit behind the other systems here at this point. Still, they have Matt Moore in it, and I can easily see it turning right around and being the top system next year.

For now, it would probably be Texas or Toronto, which are both very well-rounded. I think Texas’ system is probably deeper, but Toronto’s has more that’s closer to big league ready, which would probably cause me to take the Blue Jays.

In order, I’d go: Blue Jays, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Braves, Rays.

The Rangers also have a nice mix of bats and pitching, but I like the Jays’ guys more. The Braves’ and Dbacks’ pitching is superior to that of Toronto, but they lack high end positional prospects like D’Arnaud, Gose and Marisnick. That combined with Syndergaard, Nicolino, Sanchez, Hutchison, McGuire and company makes them the strongest of the bunch to me.

like others have said, I’d want a well-rounded system, and I think the only two choices would be the Rangers and Blue Jays. I think I have a slight preference for the Rangers, but that may be based on the distractingly shiny/new international talent at the lower levels.

I think the Nationals should be in that conversation as well. Harper, Peacock, Cole, Rendon, Meyer, Meyers, Norris, Solis, Purke, Lombardozzi … that system has a lot of elements that could go into a good team. There is big league ready talent and talent in the pipeline.

I’m sure the fact that I’m more familiar with the Rays system than others has something to do with it, but I still like this system currently. The fact that they still have some nice players at the top in Moore and Lee, the real reason is just the shear depth. I think this system could have 15-20 B- or better prospects depending how you value this past draft. They also could have arguably another 15-20 C+ guys. That is just a huge amount of players with talent. Given the attrition rate of prospects, the more bullets the better.

Also, the D-backs pitching is pretty silly, especially at the top.

until I see John’s rankings of Tampa and Toronto prospects. So far, though, neither Atlanta, Texas, or Arizona have as many elite (B+ or better) or "quality depth (straight B or better) as St. Louis does.

Are the Cardinals the #1 system? At this point, Mr. Sickels is indirectly saying so…and I concur.

With that caveat, I’d choose the Rays. I don’t think anyone has developed talent at the level the Rays have the last half dozen years, they made what seemed like every damned pick in the first 2 rounds in the 2011 Draft. And I really like the way they develop players, which, from the outside, seems very methodical and doesn’t double jump everyone or rush them through levels.

I like their balance of hitting and pitching. Toronto would be my second pick, just think the ceiling of their best guys is a little lower than that of Texas’.

Atlanta and Arizona have best pitching staffs, although Atlanta gets the nod due to their track record of actually developing their pitching prospects successfully.

Teams I would potentially rank higher than any of these four: Washington and Kansas City.

My initial thoughts were along many people’s, setting aside Arizona and Atlanta because their strengths were in pitching, which has much more attrition. But on further reflection, I’m not sure.

While it’s definitely true that the other teams have better positional player prospects, I don’t think any of them have a number of “elite” offensive players.

Here are the hitting prospects above C+ for each organization John has looked at so far:
A/A-/B+/B/B-
Texas: 1/0/0/3/3
Arizona: 0/0/0/0/3
Atlanta: 0/0/1/1/6

I don’t pay close enough attention to these things to say with much confidence, but I’d bet against John putting anyone from the Jays or Rays above B+.

Having looked at it, I’m not so sure I wouldn’t take Arizona. 4 A/A- players, even if they’re all pitchers, is a lot.

Of course, the depth of the entire system is a huge part, and I can buy what people are saying about the depth of other systems.

I do agree with the contention that the Nationals are in the conversation. The depth is obviously not there, but you need stars to build a winning team around, and I would argue the Nationals have more likely stars than any other team.

for the reasons mentioned above, I’d take them over the rest. After that, I’d go with Toronto, then a toss up between Kansas City and Tampa.

I just checked. Last year, the Royals (with 3) were the only team John ranked with more than 2 A/A- players. Just a bit of context on the Diamondbacks bevy of ace-level pitchers.

If I were starting a new organization from scratch, and I could trade players and buy free agents, then I think I would want a farm that had outstanding pitchers as opposed to outstanding hitters.

The reason is that because pitchers are more volatile assets. As such, I would want my most volatile assets to also be my cheapest assets, and spend money in free agency on less volatile assets such as hitters and position players.

There is something also to be said though about having a balanced farm, so that you don’t get into extreme bargaining disadvantages in trades etc. But, if the market was liquid enough, in terms of supply and demand of trade opportunities and free agents, I think the advantages of a balanced system wouldn’t outweigh the advantages of having cheap pitching.

I voted for the Dbacks because 1) I’m a homer; and 2) I think they have the best pitching among all these teams, in terms of both top-end talent and depth.

I considered the track record of a club drafting AND developing that talent and Atlanta, Tampa and Texas stood out for me.
I also like the thought that Arizona’s pitching is so good they can overcome the lesser hitting but I’d still take the Jays farm system for what Anthopoulos has put in place.
The clincher for me was the comment about international talent as Anthopoulos has been actively building the farm that way as well as stockpiling draft picks by pursuing trades over free agent signings.
If the Jays are competitive over the next few years the philosophy could change but right now I would take the Jays farm and all the pieces they have in place.

but as this thread has kind of got a little side tracked, the Royals farm is still impressive even after all the graduations.

Hitting- Wil Myers,Cheslor Cuthbert,Bubba Starling, Elier Hernandez, Christian Colon, Brett Eibner.

Pitching- Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Yorando Ventura, Kelvin Herrera, Bryan Brickhouse, Kyle Smith, Jason Adam, Noel Argulles.

Very strong top 3 hitters and if Lamb and Monty bounce back then 3 very strong top 3 pitchers.

System has star power at the top and a lot of depth especially in the pitching department.

Probably would put it top 5 for sure and maybe even top 3.

Nice pickup, I think. Kimball had a nightmare year, but could still turn into a nice young reliever.

And I have to go with the Rangers here. I do think d’Arnaud is a top notch hitting prospect, at a premium position no less, but I think top to bottom the Rangers have more high end prospects as well as the most depth. There are a lot of guys in the Rangers system who haven’t even made full season squads yet who could be top prospects in the coming years. Obviously there is Profar at the top as far as position prospects go, but Mike Olt is quickly establishing himself as an upper level prospect, even with holes in his swing. Year in, year out the Rangers take top IFA prospects, with Ronald Guzman, Jorge Alfaro, and Mazara added in the last couple years, plus all the young pitchers they have been assembling. They have a top 25 pitching prospect in Martin Perez whose stuff is better than his performance, which hasn’t been bad. If he can get better command of the strike zone he could be really special, but that is the one thing holding him back so far. It’s impressive that an organization can still be this deep even after making some big trades in the last few years. There are a lot of toolsy guys who are still under the radar and could break out next year, especially Jordan Akins.