Discussion Question: Ackley vs. Lawrie

by John Sickels on Jul 10, 2025 2:00 PM EDT

There's been a lot of chatter lately about Mariners prospect Dustin Ackley and where he should rank on prospect lists. He hit just .147 in April but has been more effective since then, boosting his overall numbers to .255/.382/.378 with an excellent BB/K ratio and eight steals in 10 attempts. Defensive results are so-so thus far. Another Southern League second baseman, Brett Lawrie of the Brewers, is hitting .295/.359/.475 with 24 steals. His defense isn't horrific, but a lot of people still think he'll end up in the oufield eventually.

Ackley often shows up higher on prospect lists than Lawrie does, but is that right? Which prospect do you prefer?

Poll

Which prospect do you prefer?

Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners

498 votes

Brett Lawrie, Milwaukee Brewers

506 votes

1004 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 62 comments | 1 recs |

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Read More: Dustin Ackley (2B - SEA), Brett Lawrie (2B - TOR), Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers

Comments

As much as i wanted to vote Ackley

Lawrie is in the same league hitting well at a younger age

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Jul 10, 2025 2:04 PM EDT reply actions

I say the opposite

As much as I want to vote Lawrie, I think it’s too early to make judgments on Ackley. A few hot months for Lawrie vs. a few down months from Ackley shouldn’t affect what we thought of them six months ago too much, as of yet at least.

by doron on Jul 10, 2025 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

Brett Lawrie EASILY

It’s not even close in my opinion.

Its doubtful either sticks at second base, but Lawrie is the superior hitter by A LOT,

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by Dewey Finn on Jul 10, 2025 2:20 PM EDT reply actions

“Superior hitter by A LOT”

Are you serious? A lot? You talking 100-200 points of OPS? How can Lawrie’s bat really be that far superior to what Ackley could do unless you are just looking at their lines now and expecting nothing to change?

by jfish26101 on Jul 10, 2025 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I voted Ackley

Lawrie may be younger and outhitting him, but I still take Ackley with projection. Lawrie will be lucky to stick in RF, Ackley could still work out at 2B or CF. If they both end up LF’ers, then maybe Lawrie has an edge but I’m not buying that this early. I have to go with Ackley.

by jfish26101 on Jul 10, 2025 2:33 PM EDT reply actions

Ackley

I like Lawrie’s bat a lot, but think he ends up in one of the corner outfield spots. I also love Ackley’s bat, but think he could play CF if he has the opportunity. If he also moves to a COF spot, I think he’ll be a much better defender there than Lawrie.

by Jeff Reese on Jul 10, 2025 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

lawrie

Put me in the camp that says Ackley doesn’t get enough credit for how consistently good he’s been since April. He had a .923 OPS in May and .838 in June, and his BB-K rates have been terrific the entire season. I’ve never seen him in action, but the numbers say he’s justifying what was an aggressive move, putting him in Double-A in his first pro season. Seems like a hitter.

But I’ve got to pick Lawrie here because he is two years younger in the same league and hitting very well himself. If he ends up an adequate RF with a good arm, that cuts into Ackley’s defensive advantage, and he probably will have more power in the end.

It’s very close, though. The poll results are almost tied right now, and that seems about right.

by whichthat on Jul 10, 2025 2:38 PM EDT reply actions

I think of adequate as below average but not bad enough to replace. If Ackley can be an above average RF (which seems likely since I think he can be an average CF), that is a significant difference. Perhaps our definitions of adequate is different though.

by jfish26101 on Jul 10, 2025 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

…another example, I think Alvarez could be an adequate 3B for at least a few years, if not several.

by jfish26101 on Jul 10, 2025 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

this

by PrincetonCubs on Jul 11, 2025 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Lawrie

I don’t buy either as capable of playing second, but I think Lawrie’s power speed combo makes him a more special player. I could see him becoming a 25/20 guy.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by King Billy Royal on Jul 10, 2025 2:40 PM EDT reply actions

That seems to be looking at this from a fantasy baseball perspective only.

by jfish26101 on Jul 10, 2025 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

geez, good question

I pretty much wrote the book on Lawrie hype, but taking him over Ackley? TOUGH decision. I think Lawrie’s bat will be slightly better overall, but it’s the defense-related issues that make this so dificult.

by mrkupe on Jul 10, 2025 3:37 PM EDT reply actions

Polls are so weird on this site. I don’t want to think it is ballot stuffing every time but a 17 vote swing in Lawrie’s favor since I left for the store. This will probably go back and forth a few times though, just odd.

by jfish26101 on Jul 10, 2025 4:22 PM EDT reply actions

…then 7 straight for Ackley and counting. /me shrugs

by jfish26101 on Jul 10, 2025 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Lawrie

If he sticks at second than a Dan Uggla comp. isn’t terrible. Short and powerful, but also prone to strikeout and bad defensively. Lawrie’s got more speed though.

by BryceHarper on Jul 10, 2025 5:34 PM EDT reply actions

I don't see how Lawrie has more speed?

I see him having a better arm and more power but Ackley has been said to have plus to plus-plus speed by many scouts and Baseball America. Lawrie as much as i love him being a local guy and who his sister is an average runner to slightly above-average

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Jul 10, 2025 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

more speed than Uggla???

I think he does!

by BryceHarper on Jul 10, 2025 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

You think Lawrie develops that kind of power?

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 11, 2025 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions

absolutely

He is only 20 in AA, and leading the league in XBH. I think those doubles/triples will translate into HR’s in a few years. Watching him last night in the Futures Game, with his short, compact stroke, re-affirms my belief that he has 25+ HR pop in his bat.

by BryceHarper on Jul 12, 2025 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I think

he meant more speed than Uggla.

I’ll take the player 2 years younger hitting better at the same level.

by TCapone30 on Jul 10, 2025 6:56 PM EDT reply actions

+1

by BryceHarper on Jul 10, 2025 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Lawrie's line adjusted for luck:

.236 / .306 / .389

Ackley’s:

.253 /.380 / .376

Lawrie is making a living on fly balls supporting his batting average.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 10, 2025 8:11 PM EDT reply actions

I'd also like to point out that blindly comparing stat lines as if it means anything is stupid.

I can go out and find lots of players who are out hitting both Ackley and Lawrie and NONE of them would be on anybody’s prospect lists. When comparing talent, compare their skill sets and projectability, not their frigging results. Results will eventually come with talent, not the other way around.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 10, 2025 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions

?

Lawrie is making a living on fly balls supporting his batting average.

Did you honestly post that to help your case?

by BryceHarper on Jul 10, 2025 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions

It makes sense...

Flys balls have low batting averages, Lawrie’s LD% is very low and his GB% is basically average so you wouldn’t expect him to have a massive BABIP like he does.

Granted, it’s all minor league data so I’m not really sure how to read anything into it at all.

by oplaid on Jul 10, 2025 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Are minor league hit percentages very accurate?

by King Billy Royal on Jul 11, 2025 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions

minor league line drive rates are usually more volatile

GB and FB, I believe, stay closer together, but I don’t have concrete evidence of that.

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 11, 2025 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions

If you want to plus or minus it a few points, that's fine.

I don’t know how accurate they are. I have seen some rather interesting rates for minor league players that don’t quite make sense. But I have seen it go both ways. I’ve seen guys with huge line drive numbers and lower fly ball rates and higher fly ball rates and lower line drive numbers. I don’t know of any way to truly lock down the numbers.

However, it is interesting that he’s posting such favorable numbers on fly balls. A person in High Desert doing that isn’t a miracle, it’s a mirage caused by the stupidity of the ball park. We can adjust for that. But Lawrie’s line didn’t move for park factors, so the fly ball stats aren’t influenced by his stadium. His ground ball numbers are fine, since a player with decent speed will usually have better BABIPs on them. Line drives, of course, are always good. But fly balls dropping in is not player controlled ability. We do have to account for that, even if we don’t like the results.

Mind, the adjusted line for Ackley gave him some ups in April but dropped him in May and June. So his adjusted line looks more like his overall numbers. I find that, also, fascinating.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 11, 2025 6:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Are LB/FB rates in the majors any good?

Is there even a starting definition.

by JetSam on Jul 13, 2025 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

huh

the poster said the fly balls are supporting his B.A.

Over halfway thru the season, with improvement every month and cutting his k’s dramatically, isn’t ‘luck’… it’s showing his progress.

by BryceHarper on Jul 11, 2025 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

that was to oplaid

by BryceHarper on Jul 11, 2025 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Like I said a few posts above, the slash line analysis is stupid.

You’re paying attention to more skill based abilities, which is what we all should be doing.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 11, 2025 6:35 AM EDT up reply actions

I posted it as an interesting part of the equation.

I don’t personally care one way or the other about Brett Lawrie. My second post is more indicative of what I really believe. Using slash lines as a way of contrasting two prospects is a ridiculous waste of time.

But since that’s the way people are going, I posted that stat line to see if it would influence anybody’s decision. Obviously it hasn’t.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 11, 2025 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions

okay, I think I've decided

Too much thunder in Lawrie’s bat for me to go with Ackley.

by mrkupe on Jul 10, 2025 8:45 PM EDT reply actions

As long as the Brewers keep Lawrie at 2B

he’s got to be given the benefit of a doubt and be higher on lists than Ackley.

by hrv1978 on Jul 10, 2025 10:23 PM EDT reply actions

What?

Wouldn’t Ackley get the same “benefit of the doubt”?

by Jeff Reese on Jul 10, 2025 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Not in fantasy baseball. I think half the people are thinking of real baseball and the other half fantasy. The difference in defense is much more significant than the offense in my opinion.

by jfish26101 on Jul 11, 2025 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes he would but as much as I know I don’t see alot of comments saying Ackley is going to be an OF instead of a 2B in this thread. I see alot of Lawrie will bea 2B-man comments.

by hrv1978 on Jul 11, 2025 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Both have very questionable defense at 2B

by Jeff Reese on Jul 11, 2025 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I picked Ackley

But that’s probably showing my bias toward plate discipline. I love a hitter who draws walks.

by OremLK on Jul 11, 2025 4:04 AM EDT reply actions

Lawrie vs. Ackley

I guess I need to know the context. If we are talking fantasy prospects, I am all for Lawrie. They are fairly even in their chances to stick at 2B (although Lawrie has a slight edge simply because he is younger and may have a longer time to improve). If by some miracle they both end up at 2B, it is Lawrie. There are few power hitting 2B. If they move to the OF, I am still going with Lawrie. In a fantasy context, Lawrie may not quite meet Ackley in average and OBP, but he will more than make up for that in power.
If we are in a real world MLB context, it is very close for me. I would have to cop out and say it is a push depending on where they end up position wise. I thiink you have to weigh in that this is Ackley’s first full year in pro ball and give him a mulligen for the first third of the season — average wise.

by Irishbeerman on Jul 11, 2025 7:55 AM EDT reply actions

It seems to me John could do a piece on this comparison, wouldn’t mind seeing some mid-season reports/thoughts about players like this. Every time a suggestion thread is posted, there are always at least a few people that ask for some type of mid-season rankings or reports. if nothing else, a review with a couple of sentences for each player would suffice.

by jfish26101 on Jul 11, 2025 9:00 AM EDT reply actions

If you are asking who I prefer

I think I would go with Lawrie. If you are asking me who I would rank higher, I think … I think I might go with Ackley.

by toonsterwu on Jul 11, 2025 9:59 AM EDT reply actions

That seems odd. I assume you prefer the player you think will be better, yet the ranking should reflect that.

by jfish26101 on Jul 11, 2025 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I went Lawrie...

I have positional concern with both of them, not sure either will stick at 2b. And I think Lawrie has the better offensive ceiling. He’s producing more at the same level but is 2 years younger.

Poster formerly known as artie

by beastball on Jul 11, 2025 10:24 AM EDT reply actions

Lawrie

You have a 20-year old player who is .295/.359/.473 on the one hand and you have on the other hand a 22-year old player who is .263/.389/.384. Both, incidentally, have sizable platoon splits mostly because the former, Lawrie, is murdering lefthanders (1.032 OPS in 101 at bats) while the latter, Ackley, a left-handed hitter, is helpless against them (.270 slugging in 89 at bats).

Looking another way - Ackley’s platoon advantage (against right handers) OPS is .830 while Lawrie’s platoon disadvantage (against right handers) OPS is .752. I am confident Lawrie will develop into a league average defender at second base and with his already existing offensive superiority at two years younger, he is the clear choice here.

by c60 on Jul 11, 2025 10:54 AM EDT reply actions

We will see, really don’t see Lawrie being an average defender at 2B…I question whether he will be average in RF.

by jfish26101 on Jul 11, 2025 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

ACKLEY

Ackley started out very very slow batting .147 in April but since has been hitting very well. Since May 4th he has been batting .336/.481/.456 with a walk rate of 17.6%

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/6/16/1521882/prospect-notes

more recently his Slugging has been getting higher while is walks and OBP stayed near the same

by tarheels1 on Jul 12, 2025 10:49 AM EDT reply actions