Community Prospect #24
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:05 PM EST
207 comments
With 32.0% of the vote, Aroldis Chapman is elected Community Prospect #23
1. Jason Heyward - 51%
2. Stephen Strasburg - 76%
3. Buster Posey - 20% (43% runoff)
4. Michael Stanton - 20% (54% runoff)
5. Jesus Montero - 20% (45% runoff)
6. Brian Matusz - 21%
7. Pedro Alvarez - 23%
8. Desmond Jennings - 29%
9. Carlos Santana -37% (50% runoff)
10. Neftali Feliz -37% (50% runoff)
11. Justin Smoak - 46%
12. Domonic Brown - 23% (59% runoff)
13. Madison Bumgarner - 30%
14. Martin Perez - 28%
15. Dustin Ackley - 31%
16. Chris Carter - 33.6%
17. Jeremy Hellickson - 29.4%
18. Michael Taylor - 36.9%
19. Alcides Escobar - 37.0%
20. Christian Friedrich - 29.0%(53.2% runoff)
21. Logan Morrison - 45.6%
22. Ryan Westmoreland - 24.7%
Players will get 2 rounds on the poll as a tester, if they fail to draw 5% in those polls they will then be removed and sit out up to 3 rounds.
Players off the poll(will sit out up to 3 rounds): Dee Gordon(#23-1.0%), Yonder Alonso(#23-3.1%Dan Hudson(#22-2.1%), Starlin Castro(#22-1.0%), Jordan Lyles(#22-0.0%), Ike Davis(#21-1.3%), Matt Moore(#20-0.0%), Freddie Freeman(#20-0.9%), Jenrry Mejia(#20-1.8%)
Tester pool: Ike Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Casey Crosby, Tyler Matzek, Hector Rondon, Jhoulys Chacin, Derek Norris, Jake Arrieta, Michael Saunders, Ryan Kalish, Jacob Turner, Michael Montgomery, Matt Dominguez, Todd Frazier, Josh Reddick, Brett Lawrie, Zach Stewart, Simon Castro
The candidates with previous round vote %:
Jake Arrieta 0.0%
Aaron Hicks 8.2%
Fernando Martinez 15.5%
Kyle Drabek 10.3%
Wade Davis 16.5%
Brett Wallace 1.0%
Lonnie Chisenhall 10.3%
Casey Crosby 1.0%
Over 130 AB/50 IP cutoff for eligibility
Please vote using the +1 system, not the rec system. Rec'd votes will not be counted in this poll, only actual posts with +1.
2 recs |
207 comments
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Vote here with a +1 for Jake Arrieta
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:07 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+1
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
by wickedwitch on Jan 12, 2026 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Derek Norris
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:08 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+1
Better than every other catcher not named Monterro or Posey.
by squarejaw on Jan 12, 2026 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Better than Santana?
www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects
by ravensfan3 on Jan 12, 2026 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Aaron Hicks
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:08 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
toolshed
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 12, 2026 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T; Park in 2010
by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2026 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Freddie Freeman is a better prospect than most of these guys
Reached AA at 19, had a good year until injuries later in the season. Guy has elite contact ability to go with elite power potential. He has more raw power than even Heyward. I cant really see voting for guys like Martinez or Hicks over him or most or any of these pitchers not named Drabek or Davis. He has a pretty high floor as well.
by bravitos5122 on Jan 12, 2026 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He is also a first baseman, not impressive in terms of power yet, although potential to fill out is there
he is in the same group as Alonso and Wallace in my opinion. Also, why did you post this under Hicks?
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
In fact, I have him behind Alonso and Wallace. Unthinkable at this point in the CPL for me.
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Fernando Martinez
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:09 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+1
But this is really close, and you can make good arguments for a number of guys for this slot.
by guru4u on Jan 12, 2026 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
prefer freeman to anyone in this batch
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Jan 12, 2026 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Jan 12, 2026 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
by Evan_S on Jan 12, 2026 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Kyle Drabek
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:09 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+1
www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects
by ravensfan3 on Jan 12, 2026 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Jan 12, 2026 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Wade Davis
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:09 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
+1
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Jan 12, 2026 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Jan 12, 2026 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Jan 12, 2026 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
BJ Upton will win an MVP by 2012
by lovemethebj on Jan 12, 2026 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Jan 12, 2026 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
He has to come off the board. Then Martinez/Hicks.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 12, 2026 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I don’t really like this vote, tbh, but … I think he’s a more polished version of Drabek (Kyle may have a smidge more upside, but it’s not by much IMO and Wade’s change is further ahead right now), and it’s hard for me to pass Wade over for one of the Casey’s. That left some positional players, but I feel better about Wade than them.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2026 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Casey Kelly
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:09 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Brett Wallace
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:10 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Lonnie Chisenhall
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:10 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
by strums on Jan 12, 2026 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Jason Castro
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:10 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Casey Crosby
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:11 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 and name for any prospect not on the list
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:11 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
I'm really torn here...
The pitchers on the list are interesting, I might like Crosby better than Drabek and Davis, but certainly could be convinced. Just seems that Crosby’s ceiling is higher.
Then before Westmoreland and Chapman made the board, I was leaning Hicks, but I’m just not that excited about him. Love his tools, his performance was so-so, but then I’m not going to punish him too much for that, especially considering the press remains high on him.
What are people thinking and why?
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 12, 2026 1:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
For me its Davis because he is so close, and while he is older and the chances he meets his cieling is lower, he has the stuff to possibly be a front-line starter
He has a large body of work above AA and it has all been successful, although, in the opinions of most, slightly below what his stuff indicates he should be. There is little bust potential given the amount of time he has in the high minors, and he isn’t just a usual pitchability type. He looks to have good durability, a good frame, and one plus pitch, an above average pitch, and he has a passable change. I don’t think many expect a repeat of a debut last year, but I think its safe to say he should be slightly above league average in the majors next year, and for any prospect who still has some development left in him that is a very good sign. I have him at 16 in my top 20.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll give it a shot here
I think Crosby does probably have a higher ceiling than those two, but it would be a very slight advantage I think. All could be TOR types, but Davis likely to fall short of that into the #2/#3 range, but he’s also not very likely to fall much farther than that. I like Crosby a lot, he’s probably right after Drabek and Chisenhall for me at this point. The concern I have with Crosby is limited data and the fact he hasn’t faced upper level talent. He posted very nice numbers in the MWL, but it’s a pitchers league so I’d be very worried if he didn’t look good there. That said, his walk rate is a higher than I’d like to see, but he has time to work on that.
Drabek has some experience in High A and AA, and while his K rate did drop in AA I’m willing to chalk part of that up to this being his first heavy pitching load since his TJ surgery. He has the scouting reports to back up the love he gets. I think the whole thing of him being the son of a successful pitcher has swung way around to the point where people hold it against him now. He’s not a finesse guy trading on his daddy’s name, he’s a talented young pitcher who has loads of potential. He’s not as safe a bet as Davis, and the injury history is similar to Crosby.
Hicks….I don’t know why I’m not higher on him to be honest. He held his own pretty well in the MWL as a 19 year old, pretty impressive feat honestly. He showed a strong walk rate and while his ISO doesn’t look that impressive you have to take it in the correct context. The MWL is an extreme pitchers league and it’s not a league where you see huge power numbers. I guess because he’s such a toolsy guy some people just buy right in and don’t worry about him. I’m a little more conservative so while I’m not down on him based on his MWL numbers, I’d like to see a more contact and a little more power show up before putting him this high.
I don’t know if that helps any or muddies the waters further, but I figured I’d take a shot.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tough time too
a lot of these guys are interchangeable for me at this point, can’t get overly pumped up about any one really over another.
by MightyMoose on Jan 12, 2026 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
Good information all around, I am tending to Davis here.
My problem with Drabek is the amount of hype the guy has gotten makes me leery, especially considering the only time he posted numbers I felt justified the hype was in A+ ball last year. So I need more data, better performance before I can really start considering him.
you’re right with Crosby’s control, which makes him fall for me.
And I’m with you on Hicks, feel the love from people, but I’m not there yet. Soon tho, next 5-10.
So I think I’m with you, I’ll hit Davis this time.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 12, 2026 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Still voting for Wade
What is your favorite metric? FIP? He posted FIPs of 3.96, 3.94, and 3.83 the last two years in AA, AAA and AAA again(2.90 FIP in limited MLB action last year). K/BB? He’s trending upward here, from 1.93K/BB to 2.33K/BB in the above mentioned stops(2.70K/BB in the bigs). He’s 24 years old, has a very high floor but with some projection still there. Not much to dislike, but lots to love about this kid.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 1:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This
I would have voted for Crosby or Kelly, but it’s ridiculous with Wade still on the list. Seems like a bit of SNTS to me.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Jan 12, 2026 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wade
To quote toonsterwu up top…
I think he’s a more polished version of Drabek (Kyle may have a smidge more upside, but it’s not by much IMO and Wade’s change is further ahead right now), and it’s hard for me to pass Wade over for one of the Casey’s. That left some positional players, but I feel better about Wade than them.
Thought about FMart here, but for me at least, he has to get pegged down for his inability to stay healthy. I might go with him next, or Drabek, and after that I think Norris is my next position player.
by PhillyFriar on Jan 12, 2026 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think people are way overrating Wade Davis's upside
He has nothing like the upside of Drabek, IMHO.
Davis looks much more like a good mid rotation guy. He doesnt have an offspeed pitch, just fastball and hard curve. His change is not very good. What does he do well that says top of the rotation to people? He has neither the control nor command of a top of the rotation type.
The more I think about it, the more Im convinced this is too high for him.
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've got to say
I didn’t really want to vote for Wade Davis here either. People can laugh at me all they want and call me a homer, but I really don’t see the substantial difference between a Wade Davis and a Jay Jackson, and I don’t think Jay should get into the tester pool until around 50-60 (getting on the pool then doesn’t mean he’d get on anytime soon).
That said, what’s the huge difference between Davis and Drabek? It seems like you are saying Kyle should be much higher, and I’m not sure why. Both have good, mid-90’s fb’s with solid enough movement. Kyle’s may be a tinge better, but it isn’t by that much. Who’s breaking ball is better? I’d say Davis, but it’s close. That leaves the changeup, and Kyle’s is very much, from what I understand, in a “work in progress/beginnings” phase, whereas Davis’ showed improvement this year and may be able to be an average offering. If I have any of this wrong, do let me know.
If TOR is ace, then no, I don’t think Wade has ace potential. I don’t think Kyle has ace potential either. I think both have been overhyped, but due to a soft middle this year, that their values in the 20-40 range is probably fine. So, why’d I vote for him? I’ll be honest - I’ve repeatedly said that something worries me about Wade. I don’t have anything to pinpoint, particularly now that his changeup has taken strides. There’s a part of me that still sees him as a future closer. I really love Casey Crosby, and I buy the upside of Casey Kelly enough, but both are so far away, and considering we’re debating three pitchers, I’ll go for the safer one as of now. Both those guys have better upside, but is it enough to cancel out any difference in risk/level? For me, no, but for others, it may.
I’ve noted why I wouldn’t vote for Drabek over Davis. I just don’t see the big difference in the two, so I’ll go the higher level guy with a more developed change for now (if I’m wrong on the scouting reports, do let me know). Arrieta feels like he’s Wade Davis entering 2009, relative to what I know of the scouting reports. I think it’s too high for Arrieta here. That left Castro/Chisenhall (both of whom I like, but something troubles me as to whether or not they will be impact players), Hicks (too far away and too raw, but some may find the upside to balance out the difference in risk - i don’t), Martinez (I want to get him on before 30, so he was close, but I’m much iffier on Martinez’s ability to be a quality regular than I am on Wade’s ability to be a 2/3 arm). Wallace was a long thought - I just want a better grasp of what type of power we are looking at. I buy that it’s more than what he showed last year, probably a lot more, but it’s just tough for me to vote him ahead of Wade here.
Actually, the one guy that gave me a long pause was Derek Norris. There’s a part of me that is still contemplating that, but this looks like a runaway train for Wade.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2026 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they're upsides are pretty close
it’s just less likely that Davis reaches that point. Changeups can be taught, the A’s do it all time. Working with the MLB pitching coach and watching a guy like James Shields could do wonders for Davis. He’s still only 24 years old, it’s not like he’s a finished product at this point. He has a high floor but there is still projection there, it’s not like he maxes out as a #3 in his best case scenario.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not totally sold on Davis here, and nothing about the numbers (before the MLB sample) really jumps out at you. But the scouting reports on him, especially Keith Law’s, were very good, which gives him the benefit of the doubt over Drabek, Mejia, and the younger arms. And as toonsterwu notes, it’s something of a soft year on the prospect front, so while this may intuitively feel a little high, there really aren’t any (or many, depending on your point of view) better options.
by PhillyFriar on Jan 12, 2026 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is what KG had to say about Wade Davis last week
There are scouts who see Davis as potentially more dominating out of the bullpen, as beyond his two excellent offerings, his repertoire falls short. His changeup is a below-average pitch that often hangs, and he also throws a slurvy slider, which at times just looks like an overthrown curve. His command and control is no more than average.
Perfect World Projection: He’ll be a good mid-rotation starter.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9919
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'm not thrilled about him...
but there wasn’t really a compelling argument for anyone else. I mean Hicks was next for me, but I have to say, I was a little weary of the high ceiling/high risks guys that we just put on the board with Westmoreland and Chapman. That’s a bit of a weak excuse, that’s true, but I think Davis could fit in this range somewhere, even if it’s not this specific slot.
I saw you voted for Hicks, and then saw the list of guys you’d vote for too, but how would you rank those guys?
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on Jan 12, 2026 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
both his slider and changeup are better than he gives credit for
The slider really is like a slurve, but it is thrown consistently in the mid 80s and breaks 7 inches horizontally and 9 inches vertically. It is a nice supplementary pitch that he seems to know when to use. The changeup is passable and there is a speed difference off his fastball. It seems a little flat, but its useable, and given the amount he throws it (5% in a SSS at the major league level) it is a useable pitch.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and what part of that says "Front Line Starter" to you...?
You also ignored the average control and command.
He’s a very good prospect - good build, good fastball, good hard curve, good durability… but there are a few pitchers left who Im taking over him. This is a shade too early. Thinking about 10 spots later.
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Barring something unexpected, Davis should be a fixture in the Tampa Bay rotation for the foreseeable future. He has the upside of a No. 2 starter, and the Rays also could be tempted to make him a closer down the road as they try to figure out how to get all of their talented young pitchers on the big league staff.
BA Rays Top 10
Establishing the fastball the first time through the order is a good idea when you have plus velocity, but in the big leagues, hitters will make adjustments the second time they see you, and you need to be willing and able to change your approach. If he shows he can do that, Davis has No. 1 starter potential.
Not saying any of these evaluations are the be all, end all, but clearly there are knowledgeable people in the industry that peg him as having considerable more upside than a mid-rotation guy. If we split the difference and say his upside is as a #2, and his floor is as a #4 (or a hard-throwing reliever, if he loses out in a Tampa Bay numbers game), then I’m personally taking that over the higher risk guys like Drabek, Mejia, Crosby, Kelly, et al.
In the end, it’s kind of a meh decision, but I’m with beastball: there wasn’t really a compelling argument for anyone else.
by PhillyFriar on Jan 12, 2026 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent points
I dont subscribe to BA or ESPN, fwiw. So that wasnt selective quoting or anything… I just favor Sickels and KG. Those are my experts of choice. KLaw’s is pretty strongly qualified, but your point still stands.
I do still have at least a couple pitchers I like better (Crosby and Drabek, at the least) and a few position prospects (Im voting Hicks until he gets on I think). Like I said above, I wouldnt have him more than 10 spots after this, so its not like I think its some great outrage… just a little high for me. Im not comfortable with him here yet. With no real offspeed pitch he could very well end up in the pen. The league tends to knock the crap out of guys who throw everything the same speed once theyve seen them a couple times.
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 9:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Grant Green belongs in the discussion coming up
Jim Callis has him ranked #38 in his top 100 (stated in a chat on 12/30). If we are at #22 right now with 11 prospects in the poll and another 8 tester prospects, that means 41 prospects are mentioned right now. Add in the 5 other prospects who have fallen out due to low vote totals and there are 46. Certainly Grant Green should be in the discussion of the top 45-50 prospects in baseball.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 12, 2026 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
maybe, but he doesn't need to be added as a tester yet
he is behind castro and mier and maybe dee gordon, and those guys (castro and gordon at least) aren’t getting any votes yet. i don’t think too many people are ignoring the other SS prospects, but really dying to vote for green right now. maybe we could test him after a few more rounds. personally i think mier is clearly better, but i don’t think he should be tested yet either.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll add him to the tester pool
I’m not as sold on him as Callis for sure, I see him as more of a B range guy but I’m more conservative. I’m not sure he ranks behind Mier and Gordon as mentioned above me though, I think I’d probably put him as my #3 SS behind Escobar and Castro.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
i only think maybe behind gordon. personally i have him as my #4 SS, but either way, the other SS in the range aren’t getting votes yet.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He is my #2 and I'll probably start voting for them after Davis, F-Mart, and Drabek
maybe not even Drabek. Point is, I’ll start voting for them around the 25 mark, and he is my preffered choice of all the SS
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree completley
he is right there with the other 4 short stops and I’m going to have him in the 30s for me. I don’t really buy the character issues, he has a nice frame, decent but not spectacular defense (enough to stay at the position), double digit home run power, and good baserunning ability to go along with solid contact ability. An all-around prospect with Troy Tulowitzki type of upside (I don’t think he’ll quite have that much power), who is relatively polished when compared to his peer group. He isn’t head and shoulders ahead of the other SS prospects, but he is right in the discussion, and will probably go down as the #2 SS for me (although all of the SS will probably be right next to one another.)
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
SS prospects
Are we including Reid Brignac (104 PAs)?
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 12, 2026 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I was under the impression we were
He is a close 6th at SS and probably in my top 45-50
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
meaning, yeah, put him on the tester pool. I definatley have all 5 of the talked about SS higher than some of the testers
like Stewart, Wallace, Reddick, Lawrie, and Freeman among others.
Hell, I’d put Beckham above most of those guys as well.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was just about to post that
If Green is being considered, Brignac should probably be too.
I dont think Id have either this high.
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
SS debate
I think that could be interesting. Castro, Mier, Green, Gordon, Brignac could possibly all go very close to each other.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
although...
We don’t need to have that debate too soon. If it happens now, fine. But I don’t see anyone of them getting put on the list in the next 5 rounds or so (maybe Castro when he gets back on the poll).
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Its really interesting because they are all very different with very different skillsets
yet the predominant conclusion is that they’ll go very closely after one another. Sure, some people have them in the 30s and 40s, and some in the 60s and 70s, but the fact that they are so different yet bunched together is interesting.
Which of them do people think are staying at SS? In my opinion:
Castro - 2B or 3B because of Lee blocking him defensively
Mier - Haven’t heard much either way, think they’ll let him stay now that Moustakas is off of SS though
Green - SS
Gordon - SS (could change though. Has the physical ability for it, but will he cut down the mental mistakes?)
Brignac - SS for sure
Beckham - I say SS
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mier
plays for the Astros. there is no one blocking him, and he probably is the safest of all to remain at SS, but he is young.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
safer than Brignac? Brignac is supposed to be between a +5 and +10 defender in the majors this upcoming year.
and woops, yeah, you’re right, I’m just retarded.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cubs
Lee isn’t blocking him. By most accounts, Castro will get a shot at short, probably 2011, but don’t rule out the Cubs pushing him up in 2010 (though I don’t want that to happen). Wilken is a big fan, and Wilken’s voice is well-respected (as it should). That said, every indication is that guys like Fleita are big on Castro’s ability to stick at short as well. If he keeps it, then it’ll be up to Lee to force him out, which is always harder. Furthermore, both players have physical projection/maturation to watch, and Lee has some arm strength questions. It’s assumed he’ll get his arm strength back, but it isn’t a guarantee.
Put it this way - unless Castro collapses offensively, he’ll likely be the Cubs starting shortstop in the near future, for better or worse. Going to come down to whether or not he holds it, and if Lee can force him out.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2026 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah Brignac slipped my mind
He and Green would be right there as my #3/#4 guys at SS, but I think they’re both probably on the outside of my top 50, probably even the top 60.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Beckham
what do you guys think? Probably outside of my top 50, but not by much. I really think he sticks at SS despite the high errors, and I still have faith he is going to be more than adequate there. Combine that with his pedigree and wide variety of tools, I like him, despite the lackluster performance (albeit in a pitcher’s league).
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
in my top 50 for sure
I’d have him, Castro and Green in my own top 50. Mier just outside. Gordon is the least likely to stick.
by MightyMoose on Jan 12, 2026 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
gordon is less likely than Castro?
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're probably right
they’re both not going to stick. Gordon led the MWL with 34 errors. Castro is likely to move to 2B (where his bat will play), which is more valuable than an OF, which likely where Gordon will end up (though his bat will play in CF, it’s a little less valuable, imo).
by MightyMoose on Jan 12, 2026 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just as valueable at 2B as CF, although I don't like to just look at errors for guys this far down in the minors
It isn’t uncommon to see that happen, and there are other decent SS with lots of errors in the minors and majors alike. With the emphasis put on range, the number of errors may just be indicative of the kind of balls he is reaching, so, unless the organization decides enough is enough and moves him off before he gets to the majors or higher minors, then I don’t like to outright say he’ll move off because of errors. The baserunning speed gives me the impression he should be pretty rangey (although thats not the case with guys like Willy Taveras), so who knows.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he does have DeJesus and Lu to contend with though. I could see him moving off.
I guess I’m just not sure.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Errors don't bother me at all
Gordon reportedly has excellent range so I’m not too worried about his staying at SS.
by jar75 on Jan 12, 2026 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
right
but don’t forget, Gordon was 21 in low A. Beckham/Castro were 19. That’s two years of development.
by MightyMoose on Jan 12, 2026 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gordon
He’s very toolsy and very raw, despite being older. I’m not sure where I’d slot him (I think I prefer Green slightly), but I don’t think the defense is much of an issue with him.
by jar75 on Jan 12, 2026 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the defensive "issue"
Is whether Gordon will be moved to CF, not whether he could make it as a defensive SS. I guess one could wonder why so many people are pondering the move if it is unnecessary, but it does seem to be a real possibility. For most of the other guys, if they don’t cut it, they’ll get moved to a safer spot, like 2B or 3B, at least that is my impression. So Gordon has decent prospect value either way. I just don’t quite buy anything other than his speed offensively.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, not like moving to CF is a bigger downgrade than moving to 2B or CF
and if he does get moved I bet it will be because DeJesus comes back and has a good season or two, not because he can’t cut down the mishaps at SS.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
He certainly has the potential to be a good SS
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably 75-100 for me
But obviously just guessing and havent gottent that far with my list.
The performance doesnt worry me much… the reports of tools not as good as previously reported does. Still, he’s a SS with good tools (if not what they were). There arent exactly a ton of decent SS prospects.
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Poll Update
1) W. Davis - 19
2) F. Martinez - 8
3) K. Drabek - 5
3) A. Hicks - 5
Davis has almost half the votes so far and looks like he is running away with it.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
My personal rankings:
Davis
Martinez
Hicks
Wallace (I think…)
Drabek
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 12, 2026 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
God, this section is really hard for me
I’d probably go:
Davis
Martinez
Drabek?
Montgomery?
Green?
I think I’ll need somebody to convince me one way or the other
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fernando Martinez
I did my paen to Fernando in the #23 poll, but after voting was pretty much done, so I’ll repeat the essentials: .250 iso at age 20 in International League, sub 20% k rate. Would love to see him take more walks, but from the k rate doesn’t seem like he has contact issues for a slugger. I think he will be a decent fielder if not better in the corners.
by wobatus on Jan 12, 2026 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think he'll be an above average fielder in the corners with some nice power and passable contact skills
but I don’t think he’ll ever really develop great plate discipline. Jermaine Dye with good defense? Probably means a 5 WAR peak with a steady stream of 2.5 WAR seasons in there. I like the guy.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As a Met fan...
I’ve been proposing Fernando Martinez for Wade Davis as a fantasy trade for a couple of years now. So I have to go with Wade. But, I don’t think I’d swap him for Drabek, either. So I’ll probably vote for him next poll (depending on who else gets added).
by acerimusdux on Jan 12, 2026 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think FMart is flying under the radar at this point. He’s definitely higher than Westmoreland for me, and I say that as a huge Westmoreland fan.
That said, I went Davis here, and while I may go FMart next, he’s fallen this low for me because he just can’t stay healthy. If it were just the injury this year, then I’d probably have him Top 15, but the injury prone-ness is the biggest concern at this point, far more than the BB% (which, given the ISO and K%, doesn’t bother me all that much).
by PhillyFriar on Jan 12, 2026 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Derek Norris
Why not? I’m not sure I’m leaning that way (I think I’m leaning with the masses and pondering Wade Davis, though I don’t like it. The two Casey’s also pop into my mind as well).
I’m having, though, a hard time putting Norris aside here. I mean, massive bat potential that everyone knows. The reports on his defensive ability behind the plate was positive. Sure, work to do, but they were positive considering how he had to adjust to the position. The reports on his dedication to defense is positive. The work ethic, by most accounts, is positive. He’s focused on his defense, and his bat is there. I’m really not sure why I’m not leaning this way, so I figured I’d put it out there. I think his upside may come close to canceling out Davis’ floor/safety advantage for me.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2026 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I am close
to voting for Norris. I like Drabek better. Probably Davis as well. After that, I don’t know. He should be voted in by no later than 35 I think.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Norris is an interesting case
I’m not sure right now that I’d give him more than a 50% chance to stick behind the plate, which brings him down on my list a bit. I love the fact he’s working hard to stick back there and has the drive to improve, but I can’t see putting higher than the 40-50 range without thinking he has an 80% shot or better of catching. Still too high of a chance for me that he ends up at 1B, and while his bat is good enough there I think, without numbers at upper levels I’m not ready to put him ahead of guys like Wallace, Ike Davis, Alonso, and Gamel if he moved off of catcher.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, if he isn't likely to stick at C
then i don’t like him nearly as much. i was under the impression he had enough defense to stick there though. much more than a guy like tyler flowers.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BA's report
Weaknesses: The Nationals kept him in the Sally League all year to improve his receiving skills, and he led SAL catchers with 18 errors and 28 passed balls. Converted from third base as high school senior, he’s still working on his setup, specifically keeping his hands back and his knees out of the way. He sometimes loses focus on his defense.
I like his bat a lot, but the defense is a pretty big issue right now.
by jar75 on Jan 12, 2026 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm
Well BA has Norris penciled in as a catcher in 2013. Sickels thinks he’ll stick. I’m going to keep viewing him as a catcher, though a below average defensive one.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Norris will ever be an elite catcher
but for the most part, he seemed to show progress and with his dedication/focus on defense, I think he’s probably got a shot to be an average catcher, which should be enough for him to stick. Only time will tell, but the Nats are likely to give him all the world’s time to stick there. I think, although I can’t be certain right now, that there were positive reports on the Nats system pitchers working well with him.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2026 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
elite?
do you mean just defensively, or do you not think he can be an elite catcher offensively either?
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem
With these types of numbers (errors/passed balls,/counting stats) in the minors, is that they don’t really tell us anything without context. How many other Sally league catchers caught as many pitches? How many got promoted or moved around? I am certainly not taking up for Norris’ defense, just saying that those numbers might be misleading. He also threw out 47%/36% of baserunners the last 2 years…By the way, there’s no way I’m voting for Norris in the next 20 or so, even though I saw him play in Hagerstown this year and he looked good (only 2 games). I just don’t think he’s that deserving of such a lofty ranking.
by killa on Jan 12, 2026 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed, if he moves off then his value takes a pretty big hit. Kind of like what happened with Flowers last year
although I think he’ll have an easier time sticking at catcher than you do. We’ll see if Flores is still around when push comes to shove for them.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 on Norris
Seems like he has the tools to improve enough to play passable D at C, although the D will never be his strong suit. The bat is pretty much elite for the position, and even if he moves to 1B or the OF his bat looks like it will be good enough to get him to the bigs. For those reasons, I think he deserves votes around the #25 slot. I’ll be voting for him after F Mart, Davis and Hicks get on the list.
by guru4u on Jan 12, 2026 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs positional adjustments
Just to add to the debate about positions players, here’s the list of Fangraphs positional adjustments.
Catcher: +12.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
First Base: -12.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
So here’s the rub, assuming average defense, a guy like Freddie Freeman (a 1B) must be 20 runs better than a guy like Grant Green (SS). This also means that a guy like Starlin Castro or Carlos Triunfel who could move off of SS to 2B or 3B will have to add an extra 5 runs to break even with the positional change.
Again, let’s assume a SS can hit for league average wOBA (let’s say .330 is the average for sake of ease). Freddie Freeman would then have to hit for a wOBA of .355 (over 700 PAs) to be an equal value. If one of these SS can hit for a .340 wOBA (8 runs), Freeman would then have to have a .365 wOBA (28 runs) to match.
As we move forward with the voting, let’s just keep in mind how “premium” the premium defensive positions are in comparison. Because if there are above average offensive players at SS, the 1B who are vying for prospect position have to be a LOT better than them with the bat.
by nobodyinparticular on Jan 12, 2026 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This
I think 1B generaly get a bit overrated.
Although, I will say that defense deteriorates more quickly than offense, and I think the recent surge in defense-awareness is making us a little blind to this fact. Offense seems to have 15 years while defense about half that.
That being said, I have the next 5 SS (Green, Mier, Gordon, Castro, Brignac) all ahead of guys like Wallace, Freeman, and Alonso.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My take on guys being balloted
Work in progress and have a lot more work to do on this… just thinking out loud. Didnt go back and edit this, just a sort of stream of consciousness thing. Reserve the right to change my mind.
Voted for:
Hicks
Would vote for at this point:
Chacin
Crosby
Drabek
Davis
Kelly
FMart
Turner
Scheppers
Close to voting for:
Chisenhall
Matzek
Saunders
Dominguez
Lawrie
Starlin Castro
Getting closer to voting for:
Norris
Wallace
Castro
Reddick
Trout
Mejia
Rondon
Kalish
Montgomery
Stewart
Frazier
Tate
Crow
Melville
Alex White
Kyle Gibson
Dee Gordon
Ynoa
Myers
Jarrod Parker (maybe?)
Knapp
Weeks
On the horizon:
Arrieta
Hudson
Josh Bell
Moustakas
Simon Castro
Green
Brignac
Ramos
Cardenas
Ross
Brantley
Gamel
Vitters
Fabio Martinez
Walden
Britton
Withrow
Flores
Ike Davis
Storen
Avila
Reckling
Conger
Desme
Duffy
Freeman
Beckham
by alskor on Jan 12, 2026 3:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd move...
Montgomery up a tier, probably Crow too…I keep going back and forth on who I like better, but think both will certainly be in my Top 40. Also like Trout, but not sure I’m willing to go too crazy on his ranking. If I had to move a couple of guys down a notch, it’d probably be Turner and Lawrie.
by killa on Jan 12, 2026 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Update...Davis in control...
28 - W. Davis
13 - F. Martinez
6 - K. Drabek
6 - A. Hicks
4.- L. Chisenhall
None of the new guys making much of a splash.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I was going to vote for Hicks
then I changed my mind and went with Davis. Hicks next. F-Mart after, then Chiz, then I’m not sure
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jan 12, 2026 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
chiz and davis
i really felt it came down to these two and i gave the edge to davis based on his performance last year and that he is closer to the majors. would have liked to have seen a higher contact rate from chisenhall. not saying he won’t add the necessary 4 to 5% improvement, but for someone with such a sweet swing, you have to wonder why he didn’t have a higher contact rate.
please don’t take this the wrong way, but several of the guys on the poll have no business being on the list - arrieta, castro, norris, and even crosby (upside is one way to look at prospects i guess). also, why do we leave out guys who are clearly superior (at least in my mind) just because they didn’t garner a significant vote total when perhaps they went up against a more universally admired prospect (i.e., chapman). people are aware based on my last post that i love alonso - there is no rationale reason to exclude him from 3 successive polls.
by Los Gueros on Jan 12, 2026 6:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He is a first baseman who, injury or not, did not show necessary power. When compared with his peer group his plate discipline was very good, but not extraordinary, there is justification for him not to be on
also, Castro and Norris are both on soon for me, I think, given their position and Castro’s defensive reputation that this is about where they should start getting consideration.
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 12, 2026 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you do know what a hamate break is, right? also, don’t downplay his elite contact rate and walk rates.
by Los Gueros on Jan 12, 2026 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the rationale
is that when a player is far behind a group of several players, it is very unlikely that a giant percentage of the new voters that voted for the winner will go with an underdog. so there might have been 3-4 players getting far more support. additionally, there were other players who were in the spot that alonso is in now, that need a chance to prove that they were the next option after the top group in the poll where they didn’t get much support. if alonso was the true exception to reasonable expectations, he will be voted on right away in the first poll he is back, which means he only ends up being 2 spots lower than he would have if he were left on the poll.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As someone who like Alonso a good bit
and also the guy running the polls right now, Alonso comes off because his support has dropped for 3 polls and he ended up below 5% two polls in a row. He was 7th in the voting last poll, so it would have taken a large amount of the Chapman voters to immediately jump to Alonso for it to even matter. It’s not like Alonso was 2nd in the voting or anything, we was well behind quite a few guys, sitting out 3 polls or so won’t really hurt anything at all.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 12, 2026 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow
davis is just running away with this one. kind of surprising actually, not that he is winning, but that he has already totally locked it up after 6 hours.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gatling
I think the mercy rule needs to be put in effect. Davis has 39 votes. Martinez is in 2nd with 19 votes. No one else even has 10.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 12, 2026 8:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
agreed
while 24 hours is nice, i think it’s Davis’ spot.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2026 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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