More Favorite Young Pitchers, 25 or Younger
Major League Pitchers, Age 25 or Younger
Here are more capsule summaries on how I view key young major league pitchers, age 25 or younger. This does NOT include anyone who is still a rookie. The list is alphabetical. Also note that if a guy pitches the majority of 2012 at age 26, he doesn't count as 25.
Brett Anderson, LHP, Oakland Athletics: Age 24. On hold until we see how Tommy John recovery goes.
Rex Brothers, LHP, Colorado Rockies: Age 24. Seems like the kind of guy who will be in major league bullpens for the next 20 years, picking up saves here and there and lasting forever as a power short reliever.
Trevor Cahill, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks: Age 24. Was rushed and it shows at times. Can he make further progress with his command, and what kind of effect will the switch in leagues have? Was considered for Top 12.
Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds: Age 24. A unique talent with an incredible ceiling. Questions about long-term role and command remain in play, but superior upside. Strongly considered for Top 12.
Aaron Crow, RHP, Kansas City Royals: Age 25. I think he's better off in the pen than starting at this point. My guess is that he will be consistently inconsistent throughout his career.
Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays: Age 24. There were warning signs here, namely a higher-than-ideal walk rate in Double-A in 2010, and lack of command undid him last year. Triple-A Las Vegas is about the worst place you can send a young pitcher with command issues. It is too soon to give up on him but expectations should be tempered.
Derek Holland, LHP, Texas Rangers: Age 25. I have nothing scientific to back this up, but I think the big breakthrough will happen in 2013, not 2012. Was considered for Top 12.
Dan Hudson, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks: Age 25. A personal favorite since he was in college and strongly considered for the Top 12. I like guys who exceed expectations but he's not a fluke.
Kenley Jansen, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Age 24. A few command issues, but has all the markers of a future closer. Also considered for Top 12.
Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds: Age 24. I expect performance about midway between his '10 and '11 numbers. Should be a consistent inning-eater with a few seasons where he gets beyond that.
Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros: Age 21. Seems to be a forgotten guy already outside of Astros fandom. Reminds me of Brad Radke at the same stage of his career.
Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles: Age 25. Let's just forget 2011 ever happened. I have him on my fantasy team, held onto him, and have rejected numerous trade offers, which indicates a greater level of confidence than I actually should have logically.
Jonathon Niese, LHP, New York Mets: Age 25. I have liked Niese since he was in high school and I think he's going to surprise a lot of people (positively) within the next year or two.
Ivan Nova, RHP, New York Yankees: Age 25. The 16 wins were a fluke, but I like Nova (more than I rationally should). He could easily pitch much better yet win fewer games this year.
Ryan Perry, RHP, Washington Nationals: Age 25. You have to respect his velocity, but command issues have to be resolved and I don't like the way the Tigers handled him. Perhaps change of scenery will help.
Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers: Age 23. Inning-chewer, has never quite lived up to his reputation in my view, but he was pushed awfully quickly and in some organizations (cough, Tampa Bay, cough) he would just now be making the majors.
Chris Sale, LHP, Chicago White Sox: Age 23. I'm optimistic that the conversion to starting will go well, provided the White Sox don't do something stupid with his workload. Considered for Top 12.
Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals: Age 24. Last year's performance was no accident and I like him, but we'll have to see if his elbow woes this spring are a precursor of negative events to come.
Chris Volstad, RHP, Chicago Cubs: Age 25. The Rick Porcello of the National League.
Jordan Walden, RHP, Los Angeles Angels: Age 24. Again, this depends on how you value closers as opposed to starters. It would not surprise me to see him get hurt but until that happens he should be productive.
Vance Worley, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies: Age 24. I liked him in college and rated him as a Sleeper Prospect entering 2011, and he exceeded even that positive expectation. He might settle back into being a league-average pitcher but even that has value if he eats enough innings, which he will.
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John I'm glad you included Jon Niese on this list
I know you’ve been a fan of him since he was drafted and so have I, aside from health issues-how good do you think he can be?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Mar 29, 2026 6:17 PM EDT reply actions
That's funny about Matusz and fantasy
I actually made a dare trade of him for Aroldis Chapman last year.
by charles wallace on Mar 29, 2026 6:25 PM EDT reply actions
Holland
I have had him in fantasy for a couple years now, and he (along with T. Snider) have become untouchable for me. I know I overrate him, but after a few years of swearing that he was gonna be the next big thing I find myself emotionally invested.
by ADLC on Mar 29, 2026 6:27 PM EDT reply actions
Another note
As an O’s fan I was a bit surprised to see you include Matusz and not Britton (who is a year younger) on this list.
by ADLC on Mar 29, 2026 6:31 PM EDT reply actions
britton
I should include him. Watch for him tomorrow
by John Sickels on Mar 29, 2026 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
i think
That zona is gonna regret giving up parker for cahill.
by St.Steve on Mar 29, 2026 6:38 PM EDT reply actions
Agreed, but understandable trade
D’Backs are loaded with a ton of pitching prospects who are still a year or two away, and Parker, though probably Major League ready this year, was a surplus for their organization with guys like Bradley, Skaggs and Bauer already headlining their system. Cahill is at least a proven commodity and helps them right away (and they want to compete after winning the NL West last year), even if he doesn’t have the upside of Parker, and due to regress with the move from Oakland County to Chase Field.
Optioned to Fresno
A San Francisco Giants Minor League Blog
by objesguy on Mar 30, 2026 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions
chapman look strong again today
No walks, he has taken the heat down a bit to achieve this but his stuff still plays way up as a lefty. Wish the reds would pull their heads outta their asses and just let the kid start, even if it is at AAA at first. Bailey should go to the pen.
by St.Steve on Mar 29, 2026 6:42 PM EDT reply actions
95-98
He’s taken his heat down to 95-98. Coupled with his slider, cutter, splitter and change from a lefty…..his stuff requires no explanation.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Mar 29, 2026 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
its simply insane
That’s the reds would not allow him to start. I know its sss but 2 walks to 18 k’s in 18 ip this spring shows some progress. Go sign mike gonzalez if u need a left in the pen that freakin bad.
by St.Steve on Mar 29, 2026 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
with the money they gave him
yes, they need to try to start him
by sportsfreak2744 on Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Forget the money
I want to see that talent start!
by RedHopeful on Mar 30, 2026 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree completely with
“let the kid start, even if it is at AAA at first”. So much to be gained. And I hadn’t thought of it until now, but has anyone ever seen Chapman swing a bat? No way around that if he starts.
by charles wallace on Mar 30, 2026 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers: Age 23. Inning-chewer, has never quite lived up to his reputation in my view, but he was pushed awfully quickly and in some organizations (cough, Tampa Bay, cough) he would just now be making the majors.
Is this an inside joke or a typo? Pretty sure Porcello was drafted by the Tigers…
Its all about the []_[]
#FirePaulHolmgren
by philiafan14364 on Mar 29, 2026 7:20 PM EDT reply actions
Neither
Turns out I can’t read
Its all about the []_[]
#FirePaulHolmgren
by philiafan14364 on Mar 29, 2026 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
He's just pointing out that TB is slow and deliberate with pitchers while DET rushes them
by nixa37 on Mar 29, 2026 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
yea
I read it
but he was pushed awfully quickly by some organizations (cough, Tampa Bay, cough)
because I’m blind apparently.
Its all about the []_[]
#FirePaulHolmgren
by philiafan14364 on Mar 29, 2026 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I have high hopes for Lyles.
I think he has a chance to settle in as a solid #3 starter, with a few #2 starter-caliber seasons scattered throughout his prime.
"The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world."- Hermann Hesse, "Demian".
by Stupendous Man on Mar 29, 2026 8:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
He's the youngest guy on the list
Even if he’s maxed out his physical projection, he’s still got plenty of time to refine his game and still be considered a young pitcher.
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
by DrewRusse on Mar 30, 2026 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions
No Jaime Garcia here?
Or are you not counting him as 25? I believe he qualifies, just barely, by your criteria. I’d certainly rank him ahead of at least five or six of these.
"That’s what a baseball player does: he uses the glove half of the time." -- Rick Horton regarding the DH.
by StanTheManFan on Mar 29, 2026 8:07 PM EDT reply actions
what are your thoughts on him John?
What are your thoughts on him John?
by St.Steve on Mar 29, 2026 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
This was my first reaction too
Great job otherwise
by ArbeeEye on Mar 30, 2026 4:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I was wondering where he was too. Nasty stuff, a mid 90s heater and impeccable control make for a great pitcher. If he can turn that slider into an out pitch he’ll be great.
by Arakasi on Mar 30, 2026 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
He doesn't throw a slider
He throws a cutter instead, because of wrist probation in his delivery the slider grip doesn’t work for him. Hopefully the cutter doesn’t have similar problems.
And while his excellent his command of where the fastball is going isn’t that great. In camp they have been working on not only the cutter but on two different changeups in preparation for if/when he doesn’t have a quality third pitch.
My guess is they will use the hard change to get strikes where you would normally use your go to breaking ball counts. He would use the bigger breaking change in two strike counts. And the cutter will probably be more of a show me pitch at this point.
Personally I’m not sure the cutter/slider will ever be more than a show me pitch because of the probation issues he has. If he solves that “issue” he probably loses the wicked movement he has on his fastball and change - so I don’t expect the Jays to go that route.
by pedrophile on Mar 30, 2026 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Probation? Do you mean pronation?
Just curious, but what is the issue that keeps him from throwing a good breaking ball?
by nixa37 on Mar 30, 2026 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Stupid autocorrect, yes pronation.
He pronates his wrist at the end of the delivery in a counter clockwise direction which is great for change ups, tailing fastballs, but not for pitches that move left. He could probably throw a screwball fairly well.
by pedrophile on Mar 30, 2026 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
It's possible to throw a slider while still pronating hard
It’s definitely harder to throw it pronating versus supinating, but it is possible. Clemens pronated on both his breaking balls. Top gif is the slider while the bottom is the curve.


Do you know if Alvarez simply doesn’t try supinating on his breaking balls for some reason or is he just unable to do so well?
by nixa37 on Mar 30, 2026 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
good videos
It is apparent that Clemens pronation occurs mostly after the ball is released. I suspect this is the case for most pitchers.
From what I have read they have tried.
by pedrophile on Mar 30, 2026 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
He's pronating through release
I can guarantee you, almost every other pitcher supinates through release. That’s how they accelerate the top/outside of the ball in order to get spin. Accelerating the top/outside of the ball with pronation is incredibly difficult. If you think this is how most pitchers do it, I would suggest going out and trying to do it yourself and seeing how hard it is.
by nixa37 on Mar 30, 2026 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't clear enough
I meant that most pitchers that pronate through release probably do most of their pronation after the ball is released. Yes, Clemens does pronate through the release. The sharpest pronation does occur after the release though.
I haven’t seen any video breakdown of Alvarez’s cutter or fastball.
by pedrophile on Mar 30, 2026 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay I see
That’s essentially what has to happen with this type of pitch in order to accelerate the outside of the ball. On a fastball/sinker/change you pronate earlier because of the different part of the ball you are trying to accelerate with your fingers through the release.
by nixa37 on Mar 30, 2026 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
My guess is Alvarez has a natural, and early, pronation that he does for all pitches. This would help the fastball and change but be too early for the slider IMO.
Would love to see video breakdown to see what is actually happening.
by pedrophile on Mar 30, 2026 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting discussion
Quite illuminating, thanks.
by MjwW on Mar 30, 2026 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at it from a physics point of view
If you were pronating/supinating before release, you’d largely be wasting that energy because the ball is still in your hand thus keeping you from imparting any spin with the fingers. The only way to throw a good breaking ball is to pronate/suppinate through release as Clemens does here. What happens after the release is basically the same as what a hitter’s bat does after contact. The muscles are simply decelerating the rotation velocity about the forearm.
by nixa37 on Mar 30, 2026 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I like him over Drabek. Might not get a flashy number of strikeouts but his stuff is great and he won’t walk many and get groundballs.
by Sniderlover on Mar 31, 2026 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Wait for John's next piece.
Favorite pitchers 49 and over.
by Traindogger on Mar 30, 2026 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Zimmermann
Jordan Zimmermann deserves to be considered for this list.
He’s good. Really.
"Hosmer right in between Carter and Alvarez…. what is this list based on? height?" -- okteds, visionary (1/28/10)
by criminal type on Mar 29, 2026 10:50 PM EDT reply actions
pedobear.gif?
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave BarryYou can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
by TomCat009 on Mar 30, 2026 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Did Alex Cobb receive much consideration?
Even if he didn’t, what are your thoughts on him? He really impressed in a SSS with the Rays last year. He ability to induce groundballs is very valuable.
by mr. maniac on Mar 29, 2026 10:55 PM EDT reply actions
Danny Duffy???
I know he’s been inconsistent thus far but lefties with 94+ don’t exactly grow on trees.
by sportsfreak2744 on Mar 29, 2026 11:59 PM EDT reply actions
As mentioned above
Henderson Alvarez. Also really impressed by what I saw from Juan Nicasio last year and I usually hate Rockies pitchers.
by 96mnc on Mar 30, 2026 2:14 AM EDT via Android app reply actions
Nicasio
looks really promising to me too… and he qualifies for the list because he turns 26 on August 31.
by JRTwins on Mar 30, 2026 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
Amazing recovery and also considering he didn’t pick up baseball until he was 18 years old.
by Traindogger on Mar 30, 2026 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
volstad
Kudos for mentioning him. Hate that he’s in Wrigley but he has a very interesting skill set and has improved, albeit slowly and slightly, over the last few years.
by 96mnc on Mar 30, 2026 3:54 AM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
Harvey and Porcello
were 1-2 amongst highschoolers going into there senior years. Just to elaborate on how quickly he was rushed.
by Ryan Kennedy on Mar 30, 2026 12:23 PM EDT via Android app reply actions
Phil Hughes? Or is he just past the cutoff date?
by pedrophile on Mar 30, 2026 1:23 PM EDT reply actions
Birthday's a week before the cutoff
Turns 26 June 24, but it’s age as of July 1.
by nixa37 on Mar 30, 2026 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm guessing it can't be July 1, as Jaime Garcia's 26th B-day is July 8.
Unless Jaime just doesn’t make this list, which would be weird. But in any event Hughes wouldn’t be included.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Mar 31, 2026 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
No it is July 1
This is Garcia’s age 25 season. John mentioned that he just didn’t consider Garcia for this list, presumably because he was so close to the cutoff anyway.
by nixa37 on Mar 31, 2026 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, if the date is as of July 1, then Garcia would be eligible, but if he's considered too old, then it's not July 1.
Or maybe it’s July 1 for everyone else but Jaime Garcia, which would be really weird and nonsensical. But whatever, it really doesn’t matter.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Mar 31, 2026 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
John isn't using the normal baseball convention
But the date normally used is July 1. Like I said, this is in fact Garcia’s age 25 season, but for whatever reason John didn’t consider him (hell, maybe he just thought it was his age 26 season). It’s his list. I’m not sure why it really matters.
by nixa37 on Mar 31, 2026 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
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