Discussion: Stratedy on minor leagues in keeper league

If you have a deep league where you start more than the normal lineup you might want to stockpile as many quality prospects as possible but usually minors are like the majors, you can pick up mid tier guys during the year and it’s best to have as many “elites” as possible.

The only time I consider trading elite prospects is 1)when I can pick up very good major league players or 2)When I find myself with a roster crunch due to graduations
Here’s the thing with the minor leagues, the rankings are usually a combination of good players who are close to graduating (safe picks) and high upside guys who are further away. I like to have a combination of the two (balance graduations).

In my “main” league we have about 200 minor league eligibles owned at any given time with 18 teams and 10 man mil rosters. If I can have 1 top 10, 3 top 25s and the rest of my guys in the top 100 than I am pretty happy.

What I try to do, and what I think most people around here will tell you, is after the “elite” tier of pitchers it’s not worth owning guys below AA. In most deep fantasy leagues hitters (especially 2B, SS, 3B) are harder to come by, so I try to stockpile SS/2B talent as much as possible.

To give you a sense of how I try to balance my team…

Last year I graduated Belt, Trayvon Robinson and Moose as hitters, and Beachy and Duffy as pitchers.

With a number of players scheduled to graduate this year (Cozart, Delgado, J.Parker, Pom) and only a couple of aging vets (Huff, Oswalt, and Rolen) I concentrated on high upside younger guys in the draft. After taking the “safe” Rendon with my first pick I came back and took Bradley, Liriano and Wong to fill the team, as each is at least a couple years away which will give me time to fill my team as needed.

I also try to leave a spot or two as a “floater” to pick up a breakout player during the year. Guys like Holland, Trout broke out mid year, and the first guy to pick them up lucked out. Guys like Herrara, T.Green and Peavy will find themselves off my team by midseason unless they step up as I try to nail the next breakout star.

Things like John’s Minor league notes and BA’s hot sheet give you a great sense of who to target (That’s how I got Holland and Snider, who, yes, stinks so far) so you always want to be proactive about it.

That was a rant, but if you want a TL:DR
Elites>Quantity,
Hitters>Pitchers
Spread out graduations
Be an active scout.

If you look historically, you’ll find some pretty noticeable busts in the top 15s from year to year. You’ll also find that, if broken down by 1-10, 11-20, 21-30, etc., the frequency of successful MLB players coming from each bracket is pretty close. Things start to drop off after the prospects in the 50s. The big problem with the elite prospects? They cost a lot - both in terms of what you might give up to draft them/trade for them, but also in terms of what you could have had if you traded them when they were still highly ranked (but before they busted). So I tend to not overpay for elite prospects and stay with guys that have a chance to move up the rankings, or guys that may not be the big hype guys that shoot up charts.

Those are great keepers. I wouldn’t trade Machado out of that group, unless you start to hear that he may be moved off SS. Once it seems destined, but before it blows up, I would shop him. Depending on the depth of your league, his premium for being a SS should net you ~2 other top 25 guys, who together could be more valuable than a non-SS Machado.

Many top prospects flame out. “Solid” prospects flame out even more. It is really amazing how many solid (top 100) guys have the ceiling of a 4th outfielder or a middle reliever. Of course, that is only revealed as they climb the organizational ladder. Everyone starts off as the next coming of “insert HOFer here” and end up as a real player - hopefully in the MLB.

I prefer the elite specs as at least they should be above average if everything works out reasonably well. You will find yourself rostering specs that end up as MLB bench guys and those are the ones that make it of the solid specs. Sure, some improve their stock but most do not.

I don’t mind prospects that flame out. But prospects where they meet your expectations and then you can’t trade them because they are just solid - that drives me nuts. It’s a good strategy for real teams since cost is so important.

I only look at three types of prospects. Elite, those with upside to become elite, and those with elite name value that maybe I don’t like but will trade. The last group I prefer if they are young, I don’t want them getting MLB exposure and showing their limitations.

Also any high upside hitters for fantasy I could look into trading for?