Crystal Ball: Pedro Alvarez

by BigBlack on Dec 27, 2025 3:08 AM EST

Note: I know these little series are a little premature, but they are just for fun, and I do not actually think I know how these players career will turn out. They are intended to stimulate discussion on each player, and serve as a visual of how the Minor League Ball community sees the player long-term. Discussion/Feedback is much appreciated in the comment section. I did the three most recent ones over the last two weeks, and I kept forgetting to post them, so sorry if all three at once is annoying.

via crabcakesports.files.wordpress.com

Age/Year

2010/22

2011/23

2012/24

2013/25

2014/26

2015/27

2016/28

2017/29

2018/30

2019/31

2020/32

2021/33

2022/34

Total

347

245

402

445

293

501

542

557

327

400

212

150

4,516

AVG

.256

.191

.222

.230

.245

.260

.252

.251

.201

.232

.250

.239

.201

.239

OBP

.326

.272

.305

.311

.322

.345

.343

.349

.310

.301

.324

.317

.260

.323

SLG

.461

.289

.350

.399

.461

.471

.505

.502

.477

.454

.444

.398

.362

.430

195

RBI

616

Team

Pirates

Indians

Rockies

Marlins

Reds

Braves

Position

Although Pedro Alvarez isn't technically a prospect, he has only had 583 major league at bats, and we still have no idea what to expect from him. Drafted 2nd overall in the 2008 draft, Alvarez was thought to be one of the highest ceiling players in the draft with his enormous raw power. He was your prototypical homerun/strikeout/walk hitter that had a good chance to stick at third base. After mashing in the minors for two seasons, Alvarez was called up to the bigs in 2010 posting a .256/.326/.461 line. His strikeout problem was still obvious at 30%, but he provided good pop immediately hitting 16 homeruns with an ISO of .205 in a pitchers park.

2011 couldn't have gone worse. Pedro's power vanished as he hit just 4 homeruns in 235 AB's, and combined with a still high 30% strikeout rate, Pedro hit just .191 on the year. He did have some injury issues however, which could explain the power outage.

Strikeouts will always be a problem for Alvarez, but if he walks enough and hits enough homeruns he could have a nice career.

Poll

What do you think of the Pedro Alvarez crystal ball?

Optimistic

19 votes

Just right

48 votes

Pessimistic

64 votes

131 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Oh

gosh I hope not.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 27, 2025 6:50 PM EST reply actions

Not to come off as the world's biggest homer

but I don’t understand why the last 262 plate appearances (while dealing with injuries no less) where Pedro has struggled matters so much more than the previous 2,010 plate appearances at Vandy, Lynchburg, Altoona, Indy, and Pittsburgh where he established himself as a college star, #2 draft pick, #8 prospect in baseball and rookie with an .800 OPS in the majors.

Obviously the K’s and the defense are a big issue that he needs to adjust to, but it’s shocking to me how many people are willing to write him off* before giving the kid a chance to make the necessary adjustments.

*While this projection does give him 3 decent seasons in Colorado, I consider it to be writing him off if he is only able to avoid being an abject failure by running off to Coors Field for a couple of years.

by KentuckyPirate on Dec 27, 2025 9:53 PM EST reply actions

I could see a spike in homers in a few years

which is why it’s very important to hang on to Pedro for as long as the Pirates can.

Pedro is out of options and the Pirates aren’t really going to contend until Cole, Taillon, Marte, and Grossman all show up within a couple years. As I understand Pedro has a club option in 2013-2014 for $700,000 each. This gives the Pirates the affordibility to let Pedro work out the kinks in the next few years.

Really his career track is similar to Alex Gordon, who at the age of 27 finally came around to being an all-around good hitter.

So 2014 will be the big year for Pedro which is the year the Pirates will finally breakthrough.

by BadAndy on Dec 28, 2025 2:02 PM EST reply actions