Grade Changes, January 12, 2012

I assume he would have been one of the higher Bs, and is now one of the lower B+s. Intuitively (as a Jays fan), the B/B+ borderline seems about right.

I’m curious though, have you reviewed the Jays top 5 pitchers? I would have thought that a few of them are in a similar boat and might be ripe for a downgrade. In particular, I’d think Hutchison and McGuire are borderline B/B+ guys (which is where you originally had Hutchison if I recall).

The grades with new Padres Y. Alonso & Y. Grandal? I saw listed as straight B’s but in the comment section you said they were A-/B+ type prospects…? Thanks John!

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2011/12/14/gose_feature/

i’m a big believer in gose and think people are over-reacting to the numbers of a player who is still learning how to play ball………he’s got a rare blend of power, speed, and defense……..i think the game will catch up with that tool box in ’12

This is part of my frustration with distilling a player down to a single letter grade. Some “Grade B+” guys are virtually sure things, with high floors. But some are guys who could be stars, or who could turn into nothing at all (Rymer Liriano of the Padres is another example).

I feel with prospects, there should be two grades given for the prospect (each on a point scale, probably 5):

1) Potential ceiling for prospect
5 - HoF
4 - All-Star
3 - Regular
2 - Backup
1 - Minor Leaguer

2) Likelihood of being a success (you can define it as floor, or as likelihood to reach ceiling, or distance from the show)
5 - Near certainty for success
4 - Pretty good chance for success
3 - Average chance for success
2 - Below average chance for success
1 - Longshot chance for success

Then, you can get a general grade by adding or multiplying the scores together….

Player A (current/future)

Power:80/70
Hit: 65/60
Throw: 80/70
Run: 60/50
Field: 50/60

Player B

Power: 50/55
Hit: 45-50
Throw: 75/75
Run: 80/80
Field 70/75

Player B is two years older than Player A.

You pick

It is probably unfair to compare Gose to a guy with caeer WAR as high s Mike Cameron, but he certainly seems like that’s a decent comp (without getting into ceilings and floors, as paul Thomas suggests, and I don’t know what orthogonal means).

High strikeouts, walks (maybe a less than Mr. Mike) some power (maybe a little less than Cameron’s, since he played in poor hitter’s parks a lot, but Gose is still young and starting to flash some iso), great cf d usually, speed (more than Cameron even, although young Mike had some speed scores near 8), likely not a great average hitter year in and out. That can be quite a valuable package. OK, I’m Captain Obvious. I forget where I first heard that comp but likely right here at minorleagueball.