Pineda-Montero swapped
Wow.
6:51pm: The deal is Pineda and Jose Campos for Montero and Hector Noesi, a source tellsMLB.com's Greg Johns (Twitter link). Per mlbtraderumors.com
This is a pretty crazy pre-arbitration deal. Seems like an awful lot to give up for DH (although obviously a potentially excellent one at that.) I've read excellent things about both Campos and Pineda, and it seems that Montero will lose a lot of offensive value in switching from the Yankees stadium to the Mariners. Excited to see how this one works out though.
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too bad everyone's commenting on this one
hahaha
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 13, 2026 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
What an awful trade for the Mariners
as a Red Sox fan, I am really mad. My last hope is that this falls through like the Cliff Lee trade, this is awful. Montero is overrated and Pineda is awesome.
by Bososx13 on Jan 13, 2026 8:09 PM EST reply actions
Montero is overrated
yeap, you’re a Red Sox fan.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Jan 14, 2026 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
well I still think this when he got traded.
If I were a totally biased Red Sox fan, I would say that Montero is amazing and the Mariners totally won this deal. He’s an A- prospect for me maybe a B+ not enough to net Pineda
by Bososx13 on Jan 14, 2026 7:00 AM EST up reply actions
As a Yankee fan, I echo everything you just said.
I just emailed Cashman and offered to drive Montero to the airport.
by Kelsdad on Jan 13, 2026 8:10 PM EST reply actions
What a trade for the Yanks!
They snag Pineda AND Campos! I hate the Yanks, but you have to give it to them.
The Mariners seem to be on Montero for awhile. If I recall there were heavy Montero for Felix trade rumors for the longest time last year.
by jaroche6 on Jan 13, 2026 8:14 PM EST reply actions
Mariners probably have a top 5 farm now
even though Montero is really overrated. I just don’t understand why you would do that. Gio Gonzalez got AJ Cole, Brad Peacock, Derek Norris, and Tom Milone. Mat Latos got Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Brad Boxberger, and Edinson Volquez. I would take Alonso or Grandal over Montero. alone. Pineda should get a much better return than Latos or Gonzalez
by Bososx13 on Jan 13, 2026 8:15 PM EST reply actions
They went up to 7th in my ranking.
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by Frag on Jan 13, 2026 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
Um
why on earth do you think Pineda should garner more then Latos in a deal?
by High Heater on Jan 13, 2026 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
maybe because his xFIP was about the same
and his SIERA was better than Latos’ and he’s a year younger.
by Bososx13 on Jan 13, 2026 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
But he has injury issues and only one year of MLB success.
by mr. maniac on Jan 13, 2026 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
an elbow strain 3 years ago? and...what other issues?
by Portablestanzas on Jan 13, 2026 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He missed most of the 2009 season
And you do realize that strains and sprains are another way of saying partial tear, right?
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
you do realize that...
pitching is such an unnatural thing to put your body through, that virtually every pitcher must have partial tearing of darn near every ligament?
The injury has gotten more severe over time. He was shutdown with mild discomfort, there was no surgery, no rehab. Nothing.
In the years since popular opinion is that his arm has been super-glued back on, but the M’s were just being cautious.
Please provide links for the “issues”(re: multiple) mentioned above. I’d kill to feel better about giving Jose Campos away.
by Portablestanzas on Jan 13, 2026 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not the one who said issues...not sure what that was about
Perhaps it was just the Mariners being cautious and shutting him down, or maybe it was more severe than they’ve let on to this point. It isn’t exactly normal to shut a guy down for that long, especially if he doesn’t have a partial tear. I mean he missed almost a month more than Arodys Vizcaino missed with a partial UCL tear in 2010.
Look at it this way, the Mariners know more about what happened then than anyone else, especially us. If they were willing to give Pineda up so easily after the year he just had, perhaps they think it was something that points to a long-term worry and they wanted to sell high on him. There is a huge asymmetry in information here, so perhaps you should give them the benefit of the doubt.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
He did not have any surgery and came back and performed very well afterwards.
by quacker27 on Jan 13, 2026 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Ahh! lost the body of my post.
Point was, basically, he is an injury risk, but I don’t think it is much more then any other pitcher.
by quacker27 on Jan 13, 2026 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
I guess we just disagree then
I’m always going to take a guy with no previous arm issues over a guy who missed significant time with some sort of elbow injury all other things being equal. As much as like Vizacaino for example, I’m still going to hold that elbow injury against him, at least until he shows the ability to handle full workloads for a couple seasons without any ill effects.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
Soo
. the 171 big league innings and, 173 strikeouts, didn’t show you anything much huh? Sometimes I don’t inderstand where you are coming from.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 13, 2026 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Now its becoming clear your just trying to start an argument
What the hell do strikeouts have to do with what I said?
And the 171 innings will prove more once he goes through this season healthy. Many times the ill-effects of an inning load can show up the next season.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
Man, you can get as angry
. . . or not as angry as you like. i don’t care. I’m not trying to start an argument.
I’m trying to figure our how a guy can toss 170 innings in the big league and, be very effective in them, and that doesn’t show you anything about his durability.
The Ks have are an indicator of HEALTH. I’m trying to figure out what you are talking about.
I underwstand your cautiosness aboit inning laod but, I do NOT share your concern about his 2009 season, at all.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
Not angry at all my man
Just didn’t see the point of the question other than to try and bait me (especially considering the post you made right before this about me “spinning” a statement). I made it pretty clear where I stood on this and went as far as saying “all other things being equal,” so yeah that would include having thrown ~170 innings in 2011 with no issues. Look, he’s 2 years removed from being shutdown for 3 months with an arm issue and he just got traded by the team that knows the most about what happened at that time. I think he’s a bigger injury risk than someone in a similar situation who hasn’t been shutdown. Other than that, I’m done with this conversation.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
We are all guilty of spin on occasion
. . when we are arguing something we believe in. I diidn’t meen that to be as insulting at it may have sounded.
On Pineda, onl;y time will tell but, I form my hunches by watching and, he is nice and loose and limber, as well as being big and strong. I worry too but, not that much. I like his chances of being a HUGE star in NY… unfortunately for us in Seattle :(
Mr Z had to try something to get some runs on the scoreboard though and, I respect that.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
I believe Pineda
has always been a injury risk.
by srbaseball2003 on Jan 14, 2026 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
If you're gonna bring injuries into the argument
then Latos has had more issues than Pineda…
by stranahanahan on Jan 13, 2026 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
Am I missing something?
When did Latos miss most of a season with an injury?
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
He never missed most of a season
but he was shut down at the end of 2010 because of concerns over his arm and then he began 2011 on the DL. I’m just saying any injury concerns with him are more recent than with Pineda.
by stranahanahan on Jan 13, 2026 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
That's not exactly correct
He missed a couple weeks in July, but pitched August and September without any issues. He far exceeded his innings from the previous season anyway, so I would say they were aggressive with him if anything. Not how you would treat a guy if you thought he actually had an arm injury of any sort of consequence.
As for this season, he missed what, 2 starts? His shoulder got a little sore in spring training. That’s not exactly big news for a pitcher. Sometimes they just have trouble getting in their groove in the early going.
These are extremely minor things that the Padres clearly had no worries about, or they would have kept him out for more than a couple weeks. Compare missing 2-3 weeks to missing 3 months. The former tells me the team thinks they have nothing to worry about, while the latter tells me the team is scared that something serious might happen.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
comparable
Latos and Pineda are comparable pitchers. Though Latos has a longer track record meaning he can garner more value.
Trade made sense for both teams. The Mariners don’t need more then one ACE in Safeco, that’s a very pitcher friendly park. What they do need are bats. It could end up being a great sell high on Pineda, who knows.
But I see the deal making perfect sense for both teams and it being a legit trade. Bats are more valuable then pitchers
by srbaseball2003 on Jan 14, 2026 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Only
Successful in the 1st Half. 2nd Half was a disaster. Understandable as he had thrown 100 innings in the 1st Half.
by Con on Jan 13, 2026 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
Take your thumb...
cover up Pineda’s second half ERA only, a rethink whether or not “disaster” might overstating the matter. Fewer hits than IP, more K’s than IP, 1.22 WHIP. Disastrous indeed.
by Portablestanzas on Jan 13, 2026 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
Thank you
.. voice of reason :)
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 13, 2026 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
I thought that at first
But then saw his xfip was well sub 4 each of July August and September with similar 2d half k rates. With a fly ball guy his results may fluctuate but he was the same pitcher both halves, at least superficially, just going by the numbers.
by wobatus on Jan 14, 2026 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
you forgot to add
Latos is proven over multiple seasons, has had the better statistical season of both which adds more then a solid rookie season (no where near Latos)
by High Heater on Jan 13, 2026 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
You would take Alonso or Grandal?
Really?
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jan 13, 2026 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
I probably overstated that
I think they are equal to Montero, I was just mad at the time, I would have them all at A-
by Bososx13 on Jan 13, 2026 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
Grandal/Alonso as A- seems like a large stretch.
by Woo! on Jan 13, 2026 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think so
Alonso has a very good bat and is a good defensive 1st baseman and Grandal has a good bat at the most important and hardest to find position.
by Bososx13 on Jan 13, 2026 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
A- is what, top 20 overall?
You think Also and Grandal will each be among the top 20 players to emerge from those currently in the minors?
by Woo! on Jan 13, 2026 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
I like Alonso as well, however
since when is he a “good” defensive 1st baseman? Everything I’ve read says he’s passable, but I’ve yet to read he’s a positive defensively.
by stranahanahan on Jan 13, 2026 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Alonso...
was never considered to be a good defensive 1b.
by YnksFnSnc78 on Jan 13, 2026 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
I would have them all at A-
so did John. so, if you think Montero’s an A-, and John does, how on EARTH is Montero overrated?
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Jan 14, 2026 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
Did he change it? Because it was an A initially
I would know as it has led to a few…how should I say this…interesting discussions
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
your point?
’cause, obviously you failed to grasp mine.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Jan 14, 2026 7:39 AM EST up reply actions
TOP 10
Montero is a top 10 prospect. He is easily more valuable then Yonder and Grandal in my opinion.
Your looking at potentially getting one of the best young hitters in the game.
The kid will hit, I don’t think anyone is questioning that. It’s just going to depend on where he can help out in the field. C? 1B? or will he be a full time DH? I read today the Mariners think he can catch, so that’s probably the answer.
by srbaseball2003 on Jan 14, 2026 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
my point was simply that you were wrong (again)
You said: " if you think Montero’s an A-, and John does…" . That’s just not true.
by None Taken on Jan 15, 2026 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
wait
you would take Alonso OR Grandal over Montero?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 13, 2026 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
again
even though Montero is really overrated.
care to prove that, or are you just being difficult?
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Jan 14, 2026 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
as a yanks hater...
i am deeply deeply saddened… pineda is gonna be a stud, campos looks like he’ll b pretty good. top line starting pitcher >>> best DH
by Noah McKinnie Braun on Jan 13, 2026 8:15 PM EST reply actions
"Best DH"
Really? You wouldn’t trade a top-line SP for Frank Thomas or Edgar Martinez in their prime?
by psiogen on Jan 14, 2026 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Are we talking for a true ace also in his prime?
Because I’m not convinced I would trade one of those for a Thomas or Martinez. It would be dependent on what the rest of my team looked like.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Unless he's blocked on your team, isn't it always better to add a great hitter than an equally great pitcher?
The hitter is just inherently a better bet to remain healthy/productive.
by psiogen on Jan 14, 2026 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Well being a DH limits the upside of the hitter here
I don’t necessarily worry about injuries with established pitchers (which is what I assume we’re talking about since we’re talking about established hitting talents) if there isn’t any sort of history there. Pitchers are also inherently more valuable in the postseason where they can affect a disproportionate number of games compared to the regular season.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Frank Thomas racked up 49 WAR in his first 7 full seasons
If that’s “limited upside”, I’ll take it.
You’re correct on postseason value, but I don’t see how you can just brush aside the riskiness of pitchers. Even if they don’t get injured outright, their aging curve is sharper and more unpredictable.
by psiogen on Jan 14, 2026 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
And Clemens racked up 59.9 WAR in his first 7 full seasons
See, it can go both ways
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Well, obviously
No one’s saying pitchers have inherently low upside.
by psiogen on Jan 14, 2026 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Now one said DHs have low upside
I simply that playing DH limits a players upside. To be as good as an ace pitcher, you have to be an all time great hitter.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
49 WAR in 7 seasons isn't garden variety ace production
A few “true aces” off the top of my head, none of whom ever topped 35 WAR over their best 7-year period:
Johan Santana
Dwight Gooden
CC Sabathia
Roy Halladay
Tom Glavine
Needless to say, there have been a lot of ace starters who couldn’t stack up against that crowd, much less prime Frank Thomas.
by psiogen on Jan 14, 2026 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
Well why are we only looking at 7 year samples?
Yeah, a lot of pitchers can’t string together 7 straight great seasons, but why are we looking at that long of a period?
I’m also not sure where you’re getting that none of those guys topped 35 WAR in a 7 year period. Santana hit 39.7, Halladay is at 45.4 for the past 7, Gooden had 41.3, and Sabathia is at 43, all according to fangraphs.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Even then Halladay has 40+ the past 7 years
I haven’t checked with other guys, but if you just select the past 7 seasons, the site isn’t adding it up correctly for whatever reason. If you do it by hand (or even just mentally check to see if he’s over 5 a season), you’ll see he’s way past 35.
by nixa37 on Jan 15, 2026 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
But Montero
isn’t going to hit like Frank Thomas.
by Bososx13 on Jan 14, 2026 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Not that it really makes a difference, but Thomas also wasn't a DH then
Though his defense was such that playing 1B isn’t really helping his value. I was more considering late career, actual DH Frank Thomas in this discussion.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm considering him a DH, the same way we consider Montero a DH
Thomas never should have been allowed to play the field, but he was. As you say, it doesn’t really make a difference. Although I suppose it’s possible that Montero becomes a good 1B, which would change things a little.
by psiogen on Jan 14, 2026 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Not to start an argument with you, but
if Montero puts up a line of 30 homers, 100 RBI and a .300 average then his hitting upside is pretty good no matter what position he plays. Of course his value is more if he is playing catcher or somewhere else in the field, but that is production that the Mariners didn’t have a week ago and that they couldn’t find for years. People seem to overlook that while a player may be 4 wins above replacement, that if you trade them, you still have to find a player that can fill that replacement value. The Mariners appear to have enough pitching potential in the minors to do that with Pineda. What they lost in Pineda, they have a good chance in making back in Montero/Hultzen or Paxton or someone else.
by Looney4baseball on Jan 15, 2026 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
I've stated that I actually like the deal for the Mariners
I was only commenting on trading a top line starting pitcher for the best DH and why I understood the reasoning behind not being willing to move the former for the latter.
by nixa37 on Jan 15, 2026 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
I think it was a fair deal for both sides.
As a Yankees fan, I don’t like seeing Montero go because I believe he will be a middle of the order hitter and productive player. How much production who knows, but he would have been a nice infusion of young talent into a team that has aging players on offense.
On the other side of the coin, they needed to bolster the pitching staff and potentially set themselves up nicely with Pineda and I like the addition of Campos as well. What I wonder is would they have been better off with Montero/Banuelos or Betances rather than Pineda/other DH? The Mariners dealt from strength but the Yankees did not and that’s what concerns me in the long run. What in house options do the Yankees have to replace the potential production from Montero?
by Looney4baseball on Jan 15, 2026 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
As a Yankees fan (obviously) at first I was pissed at getting rid of Jesus
but the more I think about it I really like it.
by Yankees10 on Jan 13, 2026 8:18 PM EST reply actions
My immediate reaction was the opposite - shock that the Yankees pulled it off
I couldn’t believe the deal for the Yankees as I think an asset like five years of the Michael Pineda I saw in 2011 is pretty tough to come by. I don’t hate it for the Mariners & I admire their attempt to bolster the offense for a good period of time, but Pineda is the jewel here to me.
by Matt0330 on Jan 16, 2026 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Sickels: A
Arguably the best prospect in the game for Pineda and Campos. Trader Jack strikes again!
by Con on Jan 13, 2026 8:26 PM EST reply actions
in what universe is Montero arguably the best prospect in the game?
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
by MonkeyEpoxy on Jan 13, 2026 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
Arguably the best prospect in the game
are you serious?
by Bososx13 on Jan 13, 2026 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
Jesus is always one's best prospect
in the game of life:)
by mkries on Jan 13, 2026 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
You tryin' to tell me Jesus Montero can't hit a curve ball?
Wouldn’t leave that rum layin’ around with this group…
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 14, 2026 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Hey bartender
Mssr Montero needs a refill..
by Matt0330 on Jan 16, 2026 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry
I’ve been reading too much Baseball America, Sickels, Keith Law et al. I forgot. Delmon Young and Alex Gordon are the best prospects in baseball. All hail Bryce!
by Con on Jan 13, 2026 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
God response.
Show me one list that has Montero #1. Or top 3 for that matter.
by mr. maniac on Jan 14, 2026 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
ok
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=monter001jes
BA had him 3rd one year, 4th the next
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
Lol
Why in gods name would he be ranked any lower this year? He got called up and showed what he can do!
I don’t rank him that high but, Baseball America is Baseball America.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
Because the top 2 are still prospects and Moore clearly passed him?
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Sure, I guess
. . . It still doesn’t change the essence of the prospect we were looking at 2 years ago or, a year ago. He hasn’t developed unexpectedly has he? He didn’t exactly destroy AAA but, he was still dinking around with Catching still.
Any word If the Ms are going tyo stop that nonsense and just let him concentrate on what he knows, loves and, knows how to do! . . . hit!
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
The run in the majors at the end helped make up for it
But I thought the AAA performance this year was both unexpected and disappointing. Not that I mind the trade for the Mariners. They cashed in on a volatile asset while his value was high. Considering the strength they have as far as pitching, I think its a good deal even if Montero is merely a very good hitter.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
I have to say I really disagree with most of that. I’m hoping for the best though. I don’t see anything particularily volitile about Pineda but, if he gets hurt next year, I’ll gu=ive you credit for it.
he and Felix are, well were, the main reasons we have pitching strength. Other than them, the staff isn’t all that great. There are some nice kids coming up but, talk about volitile y’know?
I hope you right but, i see zero reson to think Pineda’s value won’t get a lot higher
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 1:28 AM EST up reply actions
All I can tell you
Is the Mariners know a heck of a lot more about Pineda’s injury risk than either of us and they felt comfortable dealing him away. Who knows how it turns out, but I’d give them the benefit of the doubt at this point.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
Pineda getting hurt next year...
won’t prove nix right. And him staying healthy won’t prove nix wrong.
He’s an injury risk, as are all arms. He may be a slightly higher injury risk because of past arm problems. It’s a legitimate red flag that affects the way his future value should be perceived. It’s not, however, a prediction.
by slamcactus on Jan 15, 2026 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
uh
i have to disagree
if Montero is merely a very good hitter (like, wRC+ 130 range) then this is a pretty bad deal
unless of course you are uber-optimistic about Montero’s ability to stick at C
by blue bulldog on Jan 14, 2026 1:59 AM EST up reply actions
Or perhaps I think Pineda is risky
And far from a guarantee to average 3+ WAR a season for the next 5 years. Montero has an extra year of team control and an extra year earning the minimum. If there WAR total the next 5 years is close its a clear win for the Mariners.
This is leaving aside team considerations obviously. Once those a thrown in it make even more sense. The Mariners are rich in young pitching (and have show to be quite good at identifying it which bodes well for the future) and really, really poor in hitting. The real question is if the dropoff from Pineda to his replacement is less than the upgrade to Montero from whoever he is replacing. Considering what the Mariners have run out there on offense, I’m guessing it will be pretty big.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 2:04 AM EST up reply actions
i think that's a flawed approach
the real question is whether Pineda could have garnered a higher trade package
what i’m trying to say, is that the EV of a different package would have been better than Montero being a 2-3 WAR DH
by blue bulldog on Jan 14, 2026 2:47 AM EST up reply actions
Why would you compare EV to actual value?
You can’t really compare what you expect another package to be worth to what Montero ends up being worth. My point is that they just traded from a position of strength to fill in a huge weakness. I don’t see any other packages that would have fit the bill quite like this. Other team likely would have either offered packages built around numerous prospects that aren’t as good or as ready as Montero or around established players that they couldn’t control cheaply nearly as long. The trade is a very good fit for what the Mariners need. As long as Montero hits somewhat close to expected, I think its a solid deal for the Mariners.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
"Why in gods name would he be ranked any lower this year"
Because he regressed?
2010 was better than 2011..and playing in the majors is irrelevant.
by Kelsdad on Jan 14, 2026 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think so
I neither think he regressed or, that playing in the majors is irrelevant. I’d arfgue that his AAA batting numbers from last year are going to end up being irrelevant in so much as they probably won’t be reflective of how he’ll huit as a major leaguer maybe.
I never ranked him as high as most people but, I don’t see any reason to rank him lower than a year ago. He looks like a hell of a young hitter to me and, he still doesn’t look like much of a catcher.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Uhh....
There are 4 prospects in Matt Moore, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Jurrickson Profar who are almost unanimously higher in prospect lists than Montero.
by stranahanahan on Jan 13, 2026 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
Moore and Harper
Fair enough. Should have stated “one of” the best.
by Con on Jan 13, 2026 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
He's not top 5 no matter how you try to spin it.
He’s a top prospect, but a long way from the best.
by bdlugz on Jan 13, 2026 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
Just like when...
Jered Weaver wasn’t in the same class as Billingsley. I know how this works.
by Con on Jan 13, 2026 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Was Weaver really a better prospect though?
I mean, yeah he’s turned into the better pitcher, but Billingsley was the better pitcher for their first 3 years in the majors. You can’t act like rankings were wrong just because the higher ranked prospect regressed significantly from his 4th MLB season onward. There was no reason at the time to think Billingsley would suddenly fall apart 4 years later.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
What I'm trying to say...
is that I’ve been coming here for many years (not a regular) and I have fought just a few arguments… I stood up for Weaver over Billingsley having watched him pitch in the Big West and I also predicted Delmon would turn out to be a .260 hitter who strikes out a ton. Let’s call this my 3rd crusade. Jesus Montero will be more valuable than Pineda.
by Con on Jan 13, 2026 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think that's a crazy position regarding Montero and Pineda
You’re comparing a young hitter to a young pitcher. If they are close talent wise, there is nothing wrong with wanting to go for the hitter. Honestly, I think Pineda might be getting a little overrated here. That doesn’t change the fact that, as a prospect, Montero isn’t on the same level as Harper, Moore, and Trout.
Say what you will about Weaver and Billingsley, but acting like it was wrong to have Billingsley ranked higher just isn’t fair IMO. Like I said, Billingsley was significantly better from 2006-2008. Yes it looks bad now, but that’s only because Billingsley has regressed and Weaver suddenly took a huge step forward the past two years.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
Thats one way of looking at it
. . Billingsly remains a fine talent but, Weaver was one of the best college pitchers ever, i believe. UIts pretty erasy to argue that he was underrated by a long shot.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 13, 2026 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
After 2008 (3 years after the ranking)
No one in baseball would have dealt Billingsley for Weaver. The ranking was right, things just took an unexpected turn far down the line.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe
I agree with on Billingsly but, I think Weaver could have been considered more highly. Not just in retrospect either.
I look at prospect rankings like I look at poker hands: I look first at what I could have seen or, what I could have done better before, i just say “things happen”.
I totally see your point, I just don’t completely agree that the two putchers paths were totally unforeseen.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah Weaver was probably underrated
I just don’t see any reason to say that the rankings at the time were wrong considering how things went for the first 3+ years after they were made.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
Well
There is more to a career than just the first three years but, I see what you are saying.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
it depends though
if you thought 2008 was a fluke year for Billingsley
otherwise, their FIP’s up to that point is pretty similar
i don’t think it’s as clear-cut that Weaver was not as good as Billingsley at that point. and 2008 is just one point in time. what about after the 2007 season? after the 2009 season?
by blue bulldog on Jan 14, 2026 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
So if you disregarded the most recent season, and
disregarded their relative stuff, and disregarded Billingsley’s youth, and disregarded their ERA, then it wasn’t clear cut that Weaver wasn’t as good as Billingsley? That’s what I feel like I’m reading here.
After 2007, Billingsley was still younger, with better stuff, and similar numbers. After 2009, he was still younger, with better stuff, and slightly better peripherals.
Prospects ranking are rankings at one point in time. Just because someone turned out better than someone ranked ahead of them doesn’t make the rankings wrong. Sometimes, especially with pitchers, completely unforeseen things affect how the guys turn out.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
How far out?
The issue is how far out they are being projected. When I think of a prospect, and I project him, I’m thinking of who he’ll be in his prime. Granted, the economic realities of baseball mean that it doesn’t always pay to take the player who is further away, but I don’t think that should impact long term prospect evaluation.
I think grades should take ceiling into great account, and I understand this would understate the value of some high-floor/low-ceiling prospects. In the case of Billingsley and Weaver, I remember the massive buzz Weaver generated heading into the draft and upon arrival in the Majors. Weaver was always widely thought of as having an exceptionally high ceiling, though I’ll admit that I was actually very cautious about him.
There was a poster on this board whose sig had it right (paraphrasing): the proper timeline for a prospect is 5 or 10 years, not 5 or 10 months.
by GuyinNY on Jan 14, 2026 1:06 AM EST up reply actions
Good stuff here
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
This isn't my point
Prospects can only be ranked on what we know at that point in time. Just because someone doesn’t do as well as a guy ranked behind him over the course of their careers doesn’t mean the rankings were wrong. It could simply mean something unforeseen happened. I mean, it wasn’t wrong for Mark Prior to be ranked as an elite prospect. He clearly deserved to be ranked that high. It just so happens that he blew his arm out, but you can’t expect that to be factored into rankings. Even if its not an injury that leads to it (let’s say Rick Ankiel) that still doesn’t mean the rankings were wrong IMO. You can’t expect them to predict the future, you can only evaluate them based on what was known at the time.
As far as Billingsley and Weaver go, I happen to think the rankings got it right. They looked like they were right on the mark through 3-4 years. Then suddenly Weaver seemed to get a heck of a lot better (check out the spike in K rate and swinging strike rate), while Billingsely’s stuff has seemingly regressed (elite swinging strike rate to well below league average by this year). Especially when we’re talking about pitchers, things just happen to change. Sometimes guys learn new pitches, sometimes they “lose” old ones. I don’t expect prospect rankings to predict these sorts of things. I simply expect them to make since within the context of the information available at the time.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry for the Delay
I don’t think you responded to my point, exactly. What I’m arguing is that a prospect’s grade should reflect the player he will be in his prime. I’m arguing that prospecting is predicting the long-term future. Players who will have “superstar careers, barring unexpected injury.” This is as much “art” as science.Even injuries can be foreseeable to the sharp eyed analyst. Let’s use Prior as an example:
Prior was universally hailed as an uberprospect, with a level of hype unmatched in the pre-Strasburg world. A couple of fringe nutters (I was not a part of this group) said he he was bound to break down. Allow for a moment that the August ‘03 collision didn’t harm him substantially (Prior pitched brilliantly down the stretch.) Those nutters were right.
Prospect lists obviously have to rely heavily on objective data, but it’s foolhardy to take such a short view on prospecting. The point is to determine who the better player will be over the course of a career, not next year. The entire point of prospecting is predicting the future. That’s John’s job. He predicts the future: he predicts which prospects will have the best careers. Sometimes, he even relies on intuition. His job is to rank prospects in approximately the order one would expect the careers to turn out.
WRT Weaver and Billingsley, Weaver had very, very high marks for his character. It was a question, because his older brother is a flake. Upon closer examination, consensus seemed to be that Jered was far more of a bulldog than his older brother. It would make sense that Jered Weaver would continue developing in the major leagues. Players aren’t finished at 50IP/150PA. They are done when they stop improving. It’s perfectly reasonable for someone to argue that they think Weaver will have a better career than Billingsley because Weaver will be a better player in his prime. Weaver had a very high ceiling, and was the consensus top arm in his draft class. It would have been reasonable to take the minority position and argue that by 2012 (when both players are in their primes), Weaver would be the better pitcher. Once more: I was wrong on Weaver. I didn’t think he’d be this good, and I thought Billingsley would be better.
Prospects need to be ranked based on all the information we know; agreed. But the timeline isn’t as short as you’d have it. It’s very, very long. It’s why John’s prospect retros reach back so far. It’s why I think John was right to keep F-Mart ranked highly for as long as he did: these prospect lists aren’t being reviewed for their year to year accuracy, but for their accuracy after half a decade or more.
I just noticed Colin Cowherd looks like a younger Jon Huntsman.
by GuyinNY on Jan 16, 2026 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
Can see it
They’re probably about the same age though, right? I’d actually say Huntsman looks younger.
by Matt0330 on Jan 16, 2026 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
no i’ve seen many lists with montero ahead of profar (idk why). but yeah montero is a top prospect but not THE top prospect
by Noah McKinnie Braun on Jan 14, 2026 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
Though he's not top 5
He has the best mlb ready bat out of any of the prospects. And arguably the best bat of any prospect in the game right now. The kid can rake. If he can play 50-100 games at catcher per year he is going to be very valuable.
by srbaseball2003 on Jan 14, 2026 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
I think he means "best hitter"
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 13, 2026 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
DH
This now leaves quite an opening for the Yankees at DH. Fielder is now an option for the Yankees.
by Galt on Jan 13, 2026 8:28 PM EST reply actions
Only
If you expect ARod to hang at 3B until 2017.
by ttnorm on Jan 13, 2026 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
Depends on the years you think Fielder gets
I could honestly see him settling for a 3 year deal with some sort of mutual option if it means a high enough AAV. I just don’t think the market is what he and Boras were hoping for.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
if* he takes a shorter deal
I think it is in Milwaukee, they will ante up.
by St.Steve on Jan 14, 2026 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe
I just can’t see them offering nearly the AAV that the Yankees would offer on a short-term deal
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think Pineda for Montero is a pretty even trade, one that helps both teams,
but what has me curious is the Campos/Noesi aspect of it. From what I understand, Campos has more value than Noesi, though he’s much farther away. If Zduriencik was willing to give additional, significant consideration to make Montero/Pineda happen, it means he values Montero significantly more than Pineda, right?
I like Montero, but I don’t think he’s significantly more valuable than Pineda. Seems like they would have roughly similar values.
by mkries on Jan 13, 2026 8:31 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Extra year of control over Montero helps
Pineda doesn’t exactly have a clean injury history either, so it might not be a bad to sell while his value is extremely high.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you on Pineda.
It’s funny- Pineda just finished off an outstanding rookie year, while Montero somewhat struggled (or at least didn’t dominate) at AAA and has no apparent position… yet somehow, Montero seems like the “safer” of the two players, although Pineda’s upside is huge.
by mkries on Jan 13, 2026 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
In answer to you question above
. . just because a friend of mine asked me tonight. Id say that Campos has a higher perceived upside than Noesi but, I think Jack Z is doing his job - trying to win - and he wanted to replace some of what Pineda would have given them in 2012. Plus, Noesi could end up being better, who knows. I think Noesi is potentially a real sleeper part of this deal.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 13, 2026 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I hate having to give up Campos, but there’s something to be said for getting 2 major league ready guys out of this deal and only giving up 1.
by slamcactus on Jan 15, 2026 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
As a Yankees fan I like this trade
But I think people are underestimating Noesi a bit. He won’t replace Pineda, but he will be a good #3, especially in that park.
by cookiedabookie on Jan 13, 2026 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
Noesi
As an M’s fan, good to hear you’re high on him. Hultzen, Paxton, Walker and Noesi has me excited.
by Con on Jan 13, 2026 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
+1
i think people underestimate Noesi too
not sure i’d characterize him as a #3, but i definitely think that at the very least, he can slot in the back of the Mariners’ rotation
by blue bulldog on Jan 13, 2026 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
agree
with both y’all here
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 13, 2026 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
I like this more for Seattle
Pineda doesn’t have much of a change, is fly ball prone and has an injury history, and it’s easier for the M’s to replace his production with a pretender like Jarrod Washburn than it would be for a potential all star bat like Montero’s. They’d need to develop one seeing as no hitter will dare to go there. I do agree that Montero is overrated and I don’t think he’s a top 10 prospect, but I think Pineda is being overvalued more. Only real downside I see for the M’s is that they could have gotten more, but the possibility of getting someone like Montero was probably too good to resist.
by CaptainCanuck on Jan 13, 2026 9:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions
DH
Pujols and Fielder should bring in close to a half billion for roughly 6-7 seasons of production this off season and will DH in a matter of years if not this year (Fielder) - Why is everyone up in arms over the M’s grabbing a DH who can mash for $460,000 under team control for 5 years? I like Pineda but the AWAY splits don’t lie. Don’t get me wrong. High ceiling as well. Great trade for both teams.
by Con on Jan 13, 2026 9:34 PM EST reply actions
Montero is under control for 6 years
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 13, 2026 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
I think they DO lie
It depends on what they are telling you. If they are telling you that he isn’t goo or, something, I’d say they are lying to you. It was his rookie season.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 13, 2026 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
Agree
I think watching Michael Pineda pitch would help a lot of people’s opinions of him. Frontline guys his age with his kind of talent aren’t typically easily obtainable (especially when considering it will likely be for 5 years).
by Matt0330 on Jan 16, 2026 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
The worry...
is that he won’t mash. The people who don’t like this deal from the Ms perspective obviously don’t believe that Montero has any business being mentioned in the same sentence with Pujols and Fielder.
And the Home/Away ERA absolutely does lie. Pineda’s HR/FB was actually lower on the road than at Safeco. His road FIP was better than his home number, and his xFIPs are pretty much identical at safeco and away from it.
by slamcactus on Jan 15, 2026 7:54 PM EST up reply actions
Montero will lose a lot of offensive value in switching from the Yankees stadium to the Mariners
Why doesn’t the same apply to Pineda?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 13, 2026 9:46 PM EST reply actions
it's worth noting Pineda is a flyball pitcher
Which makes a move from Safeco to Yankee Stadium and the AL East a rather treacherous one. The Ks will help and he will still be great but I don’t think it’s as bad as Mariners fans seem to think. Montero’s power (he has great opposite field power as well) should play out better in safeco than Pineda’s long flies.
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 13, 2026 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
interesting question for fantasy
Would you consider this as helping or hurting Pineda’s fantasy value? Wins are rather unpredictable and I don’t know how much park factors can affect his ERA.
Clearly though, this drops Montero’s fantasy value pretty significantly. He’ll still be a great hitter though, but I’d expect more like 18-23 HR instead of 24-27
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 13, 2026 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely hurts it
He will be facing better offences, in a worse park, and face more hitter friendly road parks. I expect his ERA and WHIP to climb a bit which while his wins are still unpredictable.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jan 13, 2026 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
One thing misssing here
Oh and, hi KBR :)
One thing missing here is the fact that he is a high upside arm, in his second season. He’s good enough to just improve past these projections. I’d expect him to get better, even statistically in a worse park, just based on another year of development.
Also, wins are unpredictable but, going from pitching with the Mariners to the Yankees doesn’t make predicting more wins exactly a a bold prediction. He could win twice as many games, possibly.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Eh...
I see Pineda regressing due to the competition in the East and the ballpark. Unless Pineda starts blowing hitters out of the water, I don’t really see huge development from last year…statistically I mean.
by Vega-0021 on Jan 14, 2026 1:37 AM EST up reply actions
I think he can improve in some respects
His K rate, while already high, may climb higher next season. But he did have a very low BABIP as well so the combination of park factors and probability is not necessarily in his favor. He’s also going to be under much more pressure, and while he was successful in his first go-round, he’s going to be under a whole new set of challenges with his sky-high expectations. Francisco Liriano taught me a few good lessons on having reservations about high-strikeout power pitchers.
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 14, 2026 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Hey Casejud!
I agree with what you are saying too. I think it is a pretty even trade for both squads. A good young hitter for a good young pitcher. Sounds good to me!
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Jan 14, 2026 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Looking at BB-Ref
his 2011 season converted to Yankees stadium is basically AJ Burnett - 4.98 ERA, 9.11 K/9, 1.13 HR/9, 1.34 WHIP.
I’m liking this trade a little less than I was a little while ago.
by cookiedabookie on Jan 13, 2026 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
funny that I was going to throw out that comp for Pineda translated.
But was afraid I’d get my fingers chewed off by rabid Yankee fans through my laptop monitor.
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 13, 2026 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
go to his page, go to the pitching stats, at the bottom there is neutralize stats
There you can pick year, league, and team to convert.
by cookiedabookie on Jan 13, 2026 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
although some of it needed some quick math to figure out
by cookiedabookie on Jan 13, 2026 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't know about that feature before. Awesome. Thanks.
by Ben Tumbling on Jan 13, 2026 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
You have to average that with a neutral park, as that
calculates how they would play if they only played in that park all season. For Kuroda I would recommend doing a MARCEL projection, just rate the most recent year at 3, 2010 at 2, and 2009 at 1.
by Bososx13 on Jan 13, 2026 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Kuroda doesn't fair much better
3.99 ERA, 7.17 K/9, 1.25 HR/9, 1.45 WHIP
Yuck.
by cookiedabookie on Jan 13, 2026 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
Because Pineda doesn't get to bat
Sorrt, I couldn’t resist :)
by Kyle_B on Jan 14, 2026 5:44 AM EST up reply actions
I'm pretty pissed.
Pineda for Montero and Noesi might have been fair, but sending Campos as well makes this a terrible deal.
by WhyGodWhy on Jan 13, 2026 10:11 PM EST reply actions
Lookout Landing is pretty torn.
Most don’t like it, and I think a majority of them don’t like it for the Campos / Noesi part. Sullivan himself seems to be slightly down on it, Cameron isn’t thrilled about it either but thinks it opens up some other moves for the M’s.
I think Pineda for Montero straight up is fine. The biggest questions are how you rate each person involved. I like Pineda, but he’s got weaknesses. Weaknesses that might be more exposed in Yankee stadium than SafeCo. Montero I’ve talked about on here before. I like his bat, I don’t like his positional insecurity. I think that they’re both equal in value, honestly.
Like others, I’m not exactly thrilled by the Campos and Noesi parts. Though, I actually value Nova less than Noesi, and according to Jason Churchill the Mariners were demanding him instead. Noesi was the settlement. Frankly, I think we got the better end of that. Campos is someone I like, but he’s just way too far away for me to really care about at the moment. But, for Noesi to be good, he’s going to have to rediscover his control that he had in the minors. Moderate strikeout and low groundball rates don’t thrill me when you’re slightly worse than league average at walking guys. But I guess I understand the potential, so I’ll give him a shot. Campos, to me, looks like what Noesi was a few years ago. Take that for what you will.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 13, 2026 10:32 PM EST reply actions
Z needs to win, score some runs and, replace some of Pineda's innings
I just don’t think some in imaginary upside of Campos outways Noesi’s actual usefullness for 2012. Campos may have been the next GMs prospect if Jack Z didn’t try to make some things happen.
I could be underselling Campos’s future, I admit. I saw him in Everett last year . . . I was impessed. I wouldn’t deal him straight up for Noesi (in a vacuum, just looking at the two pitchers with no team context) but, I don’t think its a huge deal. I think Noesi has some upside himself.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
..
I just don’t think some in imaginary upside of Campos outways Noesi’s actual usefullness for 2012. Campos may have been the next GMs prospect if Jack Z didn’t try to make some things happen.
That’s a very black and white way of looking at things. Why trade prospects for established players at all? Their present usefulness is going to outweigh a prospects minor league value. I’m not too sure what your second sentence means, so I won’t address that for now.
Z needs to win, score some runs and, replace some of Pineda’s innings
The Mariners aren’t getting too far with the division opponent they have. A playoff birth is a pipe dream.
I could be underselling Campos’s future, I admit. I saw him in Everett last year . . . I was impessed. I wouldn’t deal him straight up for Noesi (in a vacuum, just looking at the two pitchers with no team context) but, I don’t think its a huge deal. I think Noesi has some upside himself.
Noesi is pretty limited to back-of-the-rotation starter or swingman/middle reliever out of the ‘pen. That doesn’t really compare with Campos’ upside. And I believe you are underselling Campos’s future. You don’t really see many pitchers that throw hard and have control.
by Vega-0021 on Jan 14, 2026 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
The Mariners aren’t getting too far with the division opponent they have. A playoff birth is a pipe dream.
That’s an argument not to acquire rent-a-players. Montero and Noesi, however, have a combined 11 years of club control remaining.
by slamcactus on Jan 15, 2026 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
I like the Yankees side more than the Mariners
Landing two big arms in Pineda and Campos is huge. They may have taken on more risk, but that’s OK.
However, it’s not hard to see why the Mariners made this deal. They traded from their organizational strength in order to add some long term offense that the team desperately needs. Montero’s bat should have no difficulty playing.
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by Jeff Reese on Jan 13, 2026 10:43 PM EST reply actions
AGREED given each teams respective needs I think the Yankees win out in this deal a bit.
It just feels like the M’s are undervaluing Pineda a tad here.
Unless they’re sure Montero can catch 100+ games a year which i simply don’t see.
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by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 13, 2026 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
Or they have a better feel for Pineda's injury risk than we do
I’m not sure why this isn’t considered more often.
by nixa37 on Jan 13, 2026 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
i feel like
that had to be part of the equation for the Mariners
on the other hand, people were making similar arguments for why the Dbacks traded Max Scherzer, and his arm is still fine. thank god we managed to suck out, IPK turned out to be pretty good, and we were able to con the White Sox into taking Edwin Jackson for Dan Hudson et al.
by blue bulldog on Jan 13, 2026 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, I did a a caclulation
Pitcher’s HR/FB rates are not indicative of skill, I found that Yankee pitchers should have a 10.4 HR/FB rate because of the park. Using that for Pineda and multiplying that by FBs, I found HRs, then I calculated a FIP using those, Pineda is exactly league average, not off by a few decimal points, he is exactly league average. 3.94. maybe Pineda wasn’t as good as I thought.
by Bososx13 on Jan 13, 2026 11:03 PM EST reply actions
That's already taken into account through xFIP
I’m now quite sure how you did those calculations, but if 10.4% of his FBs would be HRs, his FIP would have been roughly 3.53
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by OldProspects on Jan 14, 2026 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
*not quite sure
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by OldProspects on Jan 14, 2026 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
Clayton Kershaw
disagrees with you about his ability to limit HR’s
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Jan 13, 2026 11:17 PM EST reply actions
his HR/FB
rate has bounced around through his career. Like almost all pitchers, it’s basically luck
by Bososx13 on Jan 13, 2026 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
3 full seasons
3.4% 5.1 % 5.7% HR/FB
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Jan 13, 2026 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
no he didn't
the only year i left out was his partial rookie year and his HR/FB was 8% don’t make stuff up
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Jan 15, 2026 4:44 AM EST up reply actions
Don't know what you're looking at...
but that “partial” year in 2008 was over 100 innings, and his HR/FB% was 11.6%.
Should’ve used Matt Cain, dude.
by slamcactus on Jan 15, 2026 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
No
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01-pitch.shtml
Not what it has here should have just posted it the first time. SSS still applies in my eyes to 107 inning of HR/FB. 1-2 HR is all it would take to alter results in that amount of inning at Kershaws level of hits allowed
"This has got to hurt"
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by Da.aron on Jan 16, 2026 12:47 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks for the great discussion, everyone.
Instantaneous reactions that are also well thought-out? You guys have outdone yourselves this evening.
Looking forward to Dave Cameron’s reactions to this.
by abbreviatedman on Jan 13, 2026 11:35 PM EST reply actions
Attention AL West
You can no longer pitch around Ackley and Carp! hahaha Man it would be nice to see Smoak crush it in 2012.
by Con on Jan 13, 2026 11:40 PM EST reply actions
Rumors
about Fielder could make that offense pretty, well, decent.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Jan 14, 2026 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
You know what else this trade does for Seattle?
Opens up an opening day rotation spot for Danny Hultzen.
by Kelsdad on Jan 14, 2026 12:03 AM EST reply actions
Pushing it a bit don't you think?
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by OremLK on Jan 14, 2026 7:31 AM EST up reply actions
I'd bet he gets at least half a year in the minors
But I wouldn’t be surprised if he wow’d in spring training and made it known that he’s MLB ready.
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by Jeff Reese on Jan 14, 2026 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
Not at all.
Mariners have made it clear after his AFL performance that Hultzen will go to spring training with a legitimate shot at a rotation spot.
They only have one projectable lefthanded starter prospect in the entire system, and he’s far less developed than Hultzen.
Having a chance to make the team and making the team are two different things.
by Kelsdad on Jan 14, 2026 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
This was a great trade for both teams
Rare when that happens, especially when it impacts teams for another decade, not the typical veteran star for lots of pieces trade.
Seattle gets a top hitter to DH/C for them and give protection to a young lineup.
NYY get a top pitcher who isn’t yet 23 and they never really had a spot for Montero anyway.
With CC, Pineda, Kuroda, Nova and another piece, the Yanks are now the favorite not just in the East, but right next to the Angels for the AL. Mariners are starting to look like they will have a young offense to compliment that young pitching staff.
Maybe the best part about this deal though: no more “King Felix to the Yankees” talk.
by Michael Uhlhorn on Jan 14, 2026 12:16 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Montero
How to best phrase this? I think the M’s gave up more than the Yankees did, but I might prefer the M’s side of the deal. I don’t love Pineda’s health, and while Campos is a big get, I think Montero is a stone cold lock to be a superstar bat. Those do not grow on trees. If healthy, then it should be worth it for the Yanks. They didn’t have a position for Montero, anyway. But oh boy, can that man hit a baseball. The M’s just managed to get the middle of the order bopper they need, and between Montero and Ackley, they suddenly have a very exciting young lineup.
by GuyinNY on Jan 14, 2026 12:19 AM EST reply actions
Montero suddenly became the 3rd best proispect in baseball.
Just like hows Arodys became a 3 to 4 star prospect overnight. “Coincidentally” that’s when he got traded to the Braves.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
by Drizzzy on Jan 14, 2026 12:56 AM EST reply actions
Is this sarcasm?
I can’t tell
He actually was the third best prospect in baseball, ranked by BA, just a year ago.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
He has a point though
Posters at this site are a very fickle bunch. One moment the community is bashing Montero - saying he does not belong anywhere near the top 10. The next moment he is top 5.
by guru4u on Jan 14, 2026 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Personally I don't care about rankings, only the player's true talents and value.
Having time to digest the deal a bit more, I’m much higher on Noesi than I was. The Mariners seem to be inclined to give Montero all the time in the world to prove he either can or can’t catch, so… like Dr. Strangelove, I’m going to learn to stop worrying and love the bomb….er.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 14, 2026 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think it is safe to say the community here is undervaluing Montero
His bat is elite. IMO you will be very happy with the deal.
And I think swapping a high upside arm that is 4 years away for a big league ready arm (even one that is more of a 4 starter) is a good thing for a team.
by guru4u on Jan 14, 2026 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
"He actually was the third best prospect in baseball, ranked by BA, just a year ago."
And four months ago they ranked him as the fifth best prospect.
In the International League.
by Kelsdad on Jan 14, 2026 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Touche
I had to laugh a little at that one.
Great comeback.
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know why that's a good comeback
. . . I’m not advocating either selection. It remains a fact that he was thier 4th best prospect pre 2010 and 3rd pre 2011.
I think the league ranking by BA are all, highly suspect but, then again maybe the pre-season ones are too, who knows?
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 14, 2026 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
I just found it funny
I mean its true, though obviously it doesn’t say anything about where he’ll be on the full list
by nixa37 on Jan 14, 2026 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Its all good
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 15, 2026 2:23 AM EST up reply actions
Lol, you kill me
Just like where you mention he regressed. P,ease listen or read scouting reports. Scouts absolutely love him. And more than a year ago scouts mentioned that his hitting suffered when he was focusing solely on D. This has happened with Weiters and countless other catchers. Last year was all about his D. His hitting hasn’t changed. He is still considered a beast by most scouts.
by pedrophile on Jan 14, 2026 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
besides that
. . I don’t think you need to be a scout to see is obvious hitting talent in his Yankee debut but, your points are very well said and, true.
I never look to harshly at a guys hitting numbers when he is playing a position that is difficult for him, whether he is any good at the position or, not . . . Dustin Ackley in AA debut, Brett Lawrie playing 2b in AA at age 20, etc
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 15, 2026 2:18 AM EST up reply actions
A Yankee Fan's View
I’m happy with the trade as a whole but am saddened to see Montero go. You’ve got to give something to get something, and I think people are maybe over-evaluating this trade. Imagine you’re Jack Z and you get a call from Cashman and he says he’s willing to give you Montero for Pineda. Do you even blink given your cache of arms and need for hitting? You probably ask for a nice back of the rotation arm (Noesi) and Cashman asks for someone with a high ceiling that they don’t have to put on the 40 man roster right away.
Now imagine you’re Cash and Jack Z calls offering Pineda for Montero. You love the kid’s bat, but you don’t have a real #2 behind Sabathia for 2012 that doesn’t have serious questions (Hughes? Nova?). Maybe you’ve already received an indication that you’ll be signing Kuroda so you know that Noesi is absolutely expendable. You offer to swing him for Campos to sweeten the deal a bit for you.
I believe this is an absolute win for both teams, though I favor the Yankees side of things because, as always, they can just spend money to get what they don’t have and good hitting is easier to find than good pitching. I hate this as a fan, and maybe that’s why I like this trade (and the Kuroda signing) so much. Both really help the team a ton and it isn’t just financial muscle that was used to do so.
I’ve been arguing for a while now (offline) that trying to find out what a player’s ERA when he moves to the Yankees is a little, unnecessary. They have one of the best lineups in the game. What they really need are pitchers that give you six or seven innings an outing and give up four or fewer runs. That gives the current iteration of the Yankees a darned good chance to win the ballgame (just ask Ivan Nova). You get the ball to Robertson and Mariano and you most likely bag the win. Jeter and A-Roid will continue to regress, but the development of Cano, Gardner, and Granderson really compensates for that. The DH position now can host Jeter, A-Rod, Swisher, Tex, Cano, etc. every once in a while while continuing to give Nunez the opportunity to develop in the hopes that he can take over when Jeter eventually retires. Sure Pineda didn’t do well against the AL East last year, but you can consider that a small sample size and the fact that he was 22 years old might mean that he could have different results say next year, or even the year after. That K rate is pretty darned good and the G/F rate is pretty bad. Still, give me a league average 22 year old SP who was so good in the first half of the season that he made an all-star team and I’ll take my chances.
by coochorama on Jan 14, 2026 5:27 AM EST reply actions
Naw. The M's are going to try the catching experiment as long as necessary.
Vinnie Cat can still play 3rd. Not WELL mind you, but he can play it.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 14, 2026 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
I don't like him at catcher
It just holds back his hitting. Many scouts have been vocal about how much he carries his D to the plate. Seattle doesn’t have an aging crowd with a need at the DH slot.
by pedrophile on Jan 14, 2026 8:30 PM EST up reply actions
Conversely, there isn't much of a need to pigeonhole him at DH yet.
Besides, the M’s are undoubtedly looking to use the DH position in a rotation type setup between Carp (platooning LF and DH) and Montero (playing full time either C or DH). Assuming they don’t go bonkers and sign Fielder after all, of course. That would basically create a troublesome situation for Montero, Carp, and Casper Wells (LF).
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 14, 2026 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
I really think the idea that he can catch needs to be abandoned
Emergency catcher, sure, but he should not see regular playing time there. I would give him a long look at first base and use the addition to challenge Justin Smoak.
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by Jeff Reese on Jan 14, 2026 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Totally agree
He can not play even a decent catcher. If he was an emergency catcher and an emergency 1B and full-time DH they would get the most out of him. And they shouldn’t be worrying about Carp and Wells with respect to where Montero plays.
And I really hope they don’t screw with his hitting. I don’t know if it’s me but in the last few years they have messed with a few hitters to their detriment.
by pedrophile on Jan 15, 2026 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
I also totally agree
The only real good reason for the M’s to do this deal this deal to absolutely maximize Montero’s potential as a middle of the order bat and, Montero struggling to be adequate at catching does not do that.
"Does it make your life easier to just throw a quick, racist term at somebody? A man who has seen the things I’ve seen… experienced the loss and pain that I’ve experienced… I transcend race, hombre." - Kenny Powers
by casejud on Jan 15, 2026 2:23 AM EST up reply actions
Abandonment is ill advised.
New team, new coaches, new philosophies. Let them have a go at him. If he still sucks a year from now, move him where you can.
Unlike the Yankees, the Mariners have more time to be patient with Montero.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 15, 2026 3:35 AM EST up reply actions
It's not really a coaching thing though
He’s just a big dude that is awkward behind the plate due to his bulk. He was actually in pretty good shape last year, and it still just doesn’t work. The most damning thing was how slow his transfer and how long his arm action was; MLB baserunners are going to have a field day on him.
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by Jeff Reese on Jan 15, 2026 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
He's listed at 6-4 225
Wieters is 6-5 230 listed. Is it really just a size thing?
by wobatus on Jan 15, 2026 9:37 AM EST up reply actions
I didn't realize Wieters was quite that big
Montero isn’t shaped the same way as Wieters though. He looks naturally thicker to me.
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by Jeff Reese on Jan 15, 2026 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
He just isn't that athletic
Montero is a lot like Delgado.
by pedrophile on Jan 15, 2026 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Mauer 6-5 230
I can see it being he just isn’t that good at it. Piazza wasn’t great either but the bat made up for it. Maybe montero’s would be worse than him, but piazza was 24 his first season.
What percentage of guys did montero’s throw out last year in aaa? If this is about blocking balls in the dirt, framing pitches or calling a game I think his bat is worth the drawbacks to at least try.
Look at the emphasis Scioscia placed on catcher d. Napoli had such a bad rap from him and Mathis got the love and starts, and they shipped Naps away. Even if Naps had just stayed at his career norms, he was a huge upgrade overall from Mathis. Montero maybe worse than Naps behind the plate, but a likely upgrade from Napoli’s bat pre-2011.
by wobatus on Jan 15, 2026 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Montero in AAA
He threw out just 20% of guys last season, which is bad enough, but its made worse by the fact that he allowed more SB per game than anyone in the majors other than Brian McCann (who is able to make up for it by apparently being arguably the best in the majors at framing pitches according to current research).
More recent research is pointing to the fact that catcher ability to frame pitches may be incredibly underrated. One study has the difference between the best and worst in the league as something to the tune of 30 runs. If true, we’re talking about a difference in value on part with the difference between Mike Stanton and a league average hitter. That’s far bigger than any sort of problem with stolen bases is ever going to be. I have no idea how Montero is at framing pitches, but its something to keep in mind.
by nixa37 on Jan 15, 2026 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
that’s really interesting research
considering that most people consider SB break even to be at slightly above 70%, an 80% may not necessarily be that bad, if you are good at framing pitches
by blue bulldog on Jan 15, 2026 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Framing pitches
I read some stuff at BP and elsewhere after your comment. Not sure how accurate it is,but suppose it is. For example,the difference between Napoli and Mathis was supposedly -9 for Naps and +7 for Mathis over 120 games. So that’s +16.But he cost them 30-50 runs a year versus Naps offensively.
You then have to take into account the catcher caught stealing rates and figure out the run differential. Montero threw out 20%, but that was minors. Olivo caught guys at a 29% rate. You have to figure in pitcher’s ability to hold runners. Olivo actually had more passed balls than Montero.
Then there’s game-calling,blocking the plate, etc.
Olivo actually is a -1 per 120 at framing per BP study I saw. Olivo was about a 40 wRC last year. Naps was 92 in fewer PA.
Of course, Montero may not be quite the monster Naps as last year. He is still a decent bet to be, say, 40 runs better than Olivo as a batter.
Montero has arm strength, and given what BP says some of these skills for framing could be taught. Posada was awful per the article I read, had several bad habits.Martin was much better, but it is conceivable the Yanks system didn’t teach this aspect quite as well? I am sure they tried.
Anyway, even at a 20% ccs rate and if he is mediocre framing,his bat almost certainly will outweigh that. Then I suppose you have to figure who will be Ms DH to see what the optimum use of him will be, but this is even without considering he could improve somewhat.
I’d say rotate him at catcher, dh, maybe some 1b, but I’d like to see him catch maybe 90 games.
by wobatus on Jan 16, 2026 9:02 AM EST up reply actions
the size doesnt matter that much, its how awkward he is
Watching him behind the plate is like watching the bathroom scene from “there’s something about Mary”.
by pedrophile on Jan 15, 2026 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
I assume
you mean the zipper scene and not the missing splooge scene.
Anyway, you’re right. I don’t think it can be mostly a size thing.
by wobatus on Jan 16, 2026 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, its like watching Daniel Cabrera pitch
which is quite funny in its own right.
by pedrophile on Jan 16, 2026 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Why waste a year when no one thinks he can catch?
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2017242333_the_burning_question_on_jesus.html
by pedrophile on Jan 15, 2026 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
I read the link
2 evaluators said that he may be able to become passable, the other 2 said he can’t catch. That more of a divided opinion than no one.
by JayTeam on Jan 15, 2026 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
the ones that thought he would be passable were suggesting he could
catch 40 games per year. Their passable=emergency catcher. That is pretty slim praise IMO.
by pedrophile on Jan 15, 2026 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
Knee-Jerk Reaction?
So with this trade almost assuredly helping to better the Yanks rotation, does anyone foresee a knee-jerk reaction from the Red Sox here?
Just putting it out there…
YAZ...Still Reigning Triple Crown King
by bodyiq on Jan 14, 2026 9:18 AM EST reply actions
at first
I was upset because I’m heavily invested in Jesus in keeper leagues and really wanted to see what he could do with a full compliment of ab’s in Yankee stadium.
The more I look at the trade I think it is a win win for both teams. Mostly because of the pitching in the pipeline for sea and their need for an impact and possibly elite bat. Still, I think there is also a lot less risk for sea here as well.
by St.Steve on Jan 14, 2026 10:15 AM EST reply actions
Interesting that a guy who put up 120 wRC+ in AAA in 2011 is considered someone who can "rake".
Sure, he will get better. But that 70 power sure hasn’t shown up yet.
by mr. maniac on Jan 14, 2026 10:31 PM EST reply actions
ARL's though
in general i add about 20 pts of wRC+ per year
by blue bulldog on Jan 15, 2026 1:04 AM EST up reply actions
I like this trade for both teams.
They each got what they needed.
by John Black on Jan 15, 2026 1:08 AM EST via mobile reply actions
You'll never sell tabloids
with that attitude.
by wobatus on Jan 15, 2026 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
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