San Diego Padres Organization Discussion

by John Sickels on Dec 2, 2025 12:30 PM EST

I am now working on the Los Angeles Dodgers prospect list. The next team in line is the Seattle Mariners, and you can find their organization discussion here.

The team after the Mariners is the San Diego Padres, so let's get their organization discussion started now. As usual, feel free to point out sleepers and argue about prospects, etc. Although it doesn't get as much attention as some organizations, the Padres farm system is in very good condition and has a lot of depth. There are players close to the majors (Rizzo, Kelly, Darnell, Decker, etc), there are intriguing long-term prospects (Fuentes, Liriano, Tate, Rincon, etc), there are pitchers, there are hitters, there are both possible stars and future role players. The major league team struggles on offense right now, so how would you go about integrating the available young hitters into the lineup?

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Im excited about...

Robbie Erlin, the guy is in the perfect pitchers environment and his control is outstanding. I know that most scouts project him as a #3, but he looks more like a #2 in the making so long as he stays in SD [given his propensity for Fly Balls (roughly 60%)]. SD is the perfect place for him to pitch.

by James Westfall on Dec 2, 2025 1:11 PM EST reply actions

Before Alcantara's little age mishap

Was there a chance he was going to make the top 20? Was he going to be in the book?

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

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by Wonko on Dec 2, 2025 1:48 PM EST reply actions

yes to both questions.

by John Sickels on Dec 2, 2025 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

Byrnes looks a lot like Jim Thome in that picture for some reason.

by limozeen on Dec 2, 2025 2:03 PM EST reply actions

first thing that came to mind when i saw it

by thecoolest on Dec 2, 2025 8:21 PM EST up reply actions

At the beginning of 2011

you said if Keyvius Sampson stayed healthy and kept up his performance all year, you’d rate him an A-. He stayed healthy and kept up his performance. Does that mean he’s an A- now?

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2025 3:15 PM EST reply actions

sampson

I don’t remember saying that, but he is at least a B+. I have to do the actual analysis first

by John Sickels on Dec 2, 2025 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

I can quote you!

In response to a question I asked in an AQA thread from April. I can’t link it, because the search feature doesn’t seem to go back past August. But I emailed it to a friend of mine so here is the text:

I have liked Keyvius since high school. My main worry is the health issue after what happened last year.
Best case, he stays healthy and keeps ptiching like this. That would make him an A- prospect I’d say, or an A if he dominates to this extent all year. More probably he’ll weaken at some point and end up in the B+ range.
by John Sickels on Apr 14, 2025 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I would agree that he "weaken"ed because his first couple starts were utterly dominant, so a B+ does seam reasonable.

by ajake57 on Dec 2, 2025 9:32 PM EST up reply actions

yeah I would say strong B+. I like him a lot.

by John Sickels on Dec 2, 2025 9:58 PM EST up reply actions

Please widen the search capability

The search functionality is compromised if it only keeps the most recent four months. Please enlarge the period. Thanks.

by slacker george on Dec 3, 2025 12:42 AM EST up reply actions

+1

a big +1

by auclairkeithbc on Dec 3, 2025 7:02 AM EST up reply actions

but it might be a SB nation thing

by auclairkeithbc on Dec 3, 2025 7:02 AM EST up reply actions

You can just use google’s site-specific search (type “site:minorleagueball.com” in the search box then look for whatever you want).

by limozeen on Dec 3, 2025 9:30 PM EST up reply actions

I have no control over that. I'm sorry, that is an SB Nation thing

by John Sickels on Dec 3, 2025 10:03 PM EST up reply actions

Are they going to change it back

or is this a permanent thing? Because if it’s permanent that really sucks.

http://bullpenbanter.com

RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage

by gatling on Dec 4, 2025 1:39 AM EST up reply actions

Sampson

I’ve been high on him since 2008-2009 when I saw him on the showcase circuit. Kid had an advanced changeup whne he was 17, which is very rare. Combine that was great athleticism, good breaking ball and “easy” 93/94 mph heat, and I don’t see why he isn’t hyped by more.
Only two things that hold him back is his injuries and his height (about 6foot tall). If he had 2-3 more inches on him and he’d be a top 15-20 guy I’d bet

by ScottAZ on Dec 2, 2025 7:10 PM EST up reply actions

He’s actually now got those 2.5 inches compared to the day he signed.

by realitypolice on Dec 2, 2025 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

Is he not 6'0 anymore?

MILB has him listed as such.

by walnut falcons on Dec 2, 2025 8:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

No he’s not and yes they do. As with so many guys in minor league baseball, the official data (a) reflects what he was recorded/reported at the time he was drafted and (b) has little to do with his current stats. He’s also now about 215 with a target weight of 220 before he gets to Peoria in February.

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 1:52 AM EST up reply actions

Size was pretty much the only thing limiting his ceiling

I was still working under the assumption that he was 6’0, which tempered my expectations some. if he grew to 6’3 or even 6’2, then I don’t see how anyone could knock his frontline potential.

by walnut falcons on Dec 3, 2025 4:33 AM EST up reply actions

+1

6’2" weighing 220 is a big boy.
I played LB for a DI school and at my biggest I was 6’2", 225
I know most the Padre guys stay out here and train at their spring complex over the winter. I’ll have to see if I can track him down and see if he’s my size.

by ScottAZ on Dec 3, 2025 10:53 AM EST up reply actions

He's back in Ocala

Won’t be back out until big league camp report date

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

Jace Peterson

Interested to see more info about him other than standard stuff that came out leading up to the draft.

by dbreer23 on Dec 2, 2025 3:57 PM EST reply actions

He's got a heavy burden on his shoulders right now

Since he’s the only SS prospect in the whole system.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

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by Wonko on Dec 2, 2025 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Baseball America had Gyorko as the Padres LF when projecting the future starting 9

Does he even have a skillset that would play well in LF? I’ve got to think that he’d be more valuable defensively as a 3B, even if he’s bad a both.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

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by Wonko on Dec 2, 2025 4:06 PM EST reply actions

Are you clairvoyant or is this the 2011 list?

The 2012 list for the Padres from BA isn’t out yet…Dec. 12.

by dbreer23 on Dec 2, 2025 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

It's not out on their website

But it’s out in their electronic version of their print magazine. We were talking about it recently over at gaslampball.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

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by Wonko on Dec 2, 2025 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Cool - much thanks!

I’ve got a BA membership but opted out of the electronic magazine…

by dbreer23 on Dec 2, 2025 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

"BA list"

Rizzo, Liriano, Kelly, Spangenberg, Hedges, Gyorko, Wieland, Erlin, Ross, Sampson supposedly the top 10.

Seems very odd that they would rank Sampson that low, Spangenberg that high, and Wieland above Erlin.

by walnut falcons on Dec 2, 2025 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Sampson

They view him as a future bullpen anchor as opposed to sticking in the rotation. That’s probably why he appears that low.

I am surprised to see Erlin ranked below Wieland. Physical limitations, perhaps? Or maybe they just don’t see that much of a gap between the players in that range at this point.

by polyrhythm07 on Dec 2, 2025 6:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Things looking up

It’s a definite improvement over last year’s Padres list. Castro & Decker are also missing after down years. I"’m also very curious how the Erlin & Wieland skillsets translate to higher levels.

by jjmalden on Dec 2, 2025 6:46 PM EST up reply actions

Bullpen?

would be an INCREDIBLE waste. Kid had a very solid change coming out of high school, which is generally the main reason for a bullpen switch.
He has an “easy” fastball that sits 93/94 with a very lose and repeatable delivery, and a very promising breaking ball.
ONLY reason why I could see any reason to move him to the pen is the injury question.

by ScottAZ on Dec 3, 2025 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

Kelly is way too high

At best I have him 10th in the system.

No way would I ever rank him ahead of Wieland or Sampson going into 2012.

I think they’re overly high on him because they gave him huge press after the Agon trade; truth is both pitchers in the Adams trade have looked better. Also, I see Sampson with a ceiling arguably higher than Latos. I’m a believer. Liriano without a doubt should be #1 though imo. I realize I’m a minority but I think he’s a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. The guy has superstar potential.

Oramas, Castro, Reyes all should also be considered. Frieman should also get a ton of love after producing. I think pad fans are going to be surprised on how soon Spangenberg makes an impact, and from what I’ve read Hedges is the best defensive catcher in the minor leagues. Still I think Hagerty is good a minimum C+ but probably a B-

by johnnycomelately9 on Dec 3, 2025 8:09 AM EST up reply actions

er . . .Reyes?

You mean Jorge Reyes? Really?

by mrkupe on Dec 3, 2025 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

What

makes you think Liriano is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball? I mean, he put up solid numbers as a 19 year-old (19 year-old season) in A ball, but nothing in those numbers jump out. Decent walk rate, solid K rate, decent power, and a solid average, but one that was boosted by BABIP.

Obviously those numbers would be pedestrian if they were coming from a 19 year-old that is a bat-only guy. I admit, Liriano is far from that, with significant tools across the board, but as far as I can tell, we aren’t talking about an absolute freak.

I mean, Anthony Gose is one of the top athletes in baseball, if not the best athlete in baseball, so you’d be hard pressed to say that Liriano has better tools than Gose for example. If you agree with that, then I think you’d have to put Gose in the top 10 as well, considering Gose put up a similarly impressive statistical year. Granted, in a vacuum Liriano did better, but Gose is only 10 months older and played at 2 levels higher. In addition, Gose projects to be more valuable defensively as well.

Liriano is a great prospect, and has immense upside, but I struggle to see him top 10. Top 50 if you like him, maybe. For the record, not trying to say you are wrong or dumb, because everyone is entitled to their opinion and prospecting is such a crapshoot (for lack of a better term) anyway, that you certainly could end up right.

On Hedges, he may be the best defensive catcher in the minors, but I feel like you will read that about half a dozen catchers. For example, prior to last season, Tony Sanchez was given a 70 on the 20-80 scale by BA for his defense/glove.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 3, 2025 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

hedges

The scouting reports look great . . .but you know the way prep catchers go, especially those who are more highly regarded for advanced defensive skills than offensive polish. He could go nowhere very quickly, as talented as he seems to be.

by mrkupe on Dec 3, 2025 6:10 PM EST up reply actions

I do know...

that BA doesn’t displace starters who might still be there when in the future - i.e. they don’t project players leaving via trade or free agency, but will ‘retire’ players if they are near the end of their careers. I’m betting Headley will be gone by 2015 and Gyorko goes to 3B.

Separate note, surprised that Darnell didn’t make the top-10.

by dbreer23 on Dec 2, 2025 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

I understand all that.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

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by Wonko on Dec 2, 2025 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

their 2015 list for the Phillies

has Chase Utley still at 2B…for some reason they replaced Rollins who is less than 1 month older…I get that Rollins logged more innings and could go via free agency, but they left Cole Hamels on the 2015 squad as well despite him being a free agent after next season. My point is I dont read too much into the 2015 projections…they end up not being that helpful.

by James Westfall on Dec 2, 2025 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

All of that makes sense to me

Position changes for players that I don’t really see fitting at the new position does not. Unless they do fit at that position and I’m just misinformed. Which is what I was trying to determine.

"second base is the bizness." -jbox

Bolts from the Blue - San Diego Chargers Blog Created By The Fans, For The Fans

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2025 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

In Rollins' case...

He was a FA right after the World Series - I’m guessing that’s why he wasn’t put on the future lineup.

by dbreer23 on Dec 2, 2025 7:51 PM EST up reply actions

top 30

Will be posted at Friarhood.com early next week (roughly the same time as John’s list)… I’m excited to see the similarities & differences…

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 2, 2025 6:50 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions

quite different...

Than BA’s list

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 2, 2025 6:51 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

Drew Cumberland

Evidently, Corey Brock just reported that Drew Cumberland was cleared to resume baseball activities and will return to play in 2012.

What a great story. Here’s hoping to a happy ending.

Where do you guys think he falls on the prospect list after his hiatus?

by polyrhythm07 on Dec 2, 2025 6:57 PM EST via mobile reply actions

a long, long way down

by mrkupe on Dec 2, 2025 8:00 PM EST up reply actions

He's

a prime candidate to be the #30 slot, because of the upside but the extenuating circumstances that have surrounded his vertigo and lack of baseball activities. But it would make for a wonderful story indeed.

by thomasps3 on Dec 2, 2025 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

I hope he's recovered, but I think there's going to be a difference between "cleared to play" and performing at a high athletic level.

It sure didn’t sound like he was going to be able to recover from this.

I wish him the best, forget the Padres, just as a human being to another. But it sounds like he may be having some trouble letting go, which is understandable.

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Dec 3, 2025 4:27 AM EST up reply actions

Not sure if sleepers

But guys not on last year’s list that I’d like to know more about.

Vince Belnome: Could he stick at 2B? Hit for surprising power last year and kept up his great BB % and decent K%. I’m wondering if he could be more than a utility guy.

Pedro Hernandez: Seems kind of like Juan Oramas. Short lefty moved up ranks fast while maintaining good K/BB ratios. Wondering what his stuff is like.

Andy Parrino: A little old, but had a nice offensive season last year. Can he be a good super utility type at the major league level?

Luis Domoromo: Had a solid season for his age. Does he have the tools to be an above average major league corner OF?

Connor Powers: Although old for the league he had a terrific year for the Tincaps. Seems whatever they worked on in extended spring training worked for him. Any chance he can keep up that kind of offense?

Tommy Medica: Had a good offensive season. Shoulder injury seemed to force him to mostly DH with some time at 1B. Any chance he can return to catching next year?

Jeudy Valdez: Read some report from a Lake Elsinore coach that he was improving defensively last season. Anyone see him play? Hear anything similar? Seems like he has enough offense to stick at SS, maybe even 2B.

by Antonio Olivares on Dec 2, 2025 9:51 PM EST reply actions

Why Bother

I have been a Padres and Chargers fan basically for 40 years. Went to all the games saw Winfield, Gwynn, Air Coryell….yada yada yada. There was simply a tradeoff ie heartbreak and disappointment for living in such a great place. You think as San Diego turns from Americas Finest City into a cesspool that the sports gods would give us one championship, just one. Yeah the Sockers were the best and need an MLS slot now, but the Padres and Chargers are the curse of San Diego. In 25 years, the drought wont be about the Cubs, but it will be the laugh that is San Diego and how the Padres and Chargers continue to suck or come up short when things are lined up. Prospects? LOL.

by Jeremy1Esq on Dec 2, 2025 11:48 PM EST reply actions

The Chargers did win the 1963 AFL title

I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min

by WaddellCanseco on Dec 3, 2025 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

Jonathan Galvez

Anyone have a feel where he ends up long-term - 2B? RF?

by dbreer23 on Dec 3, 2025 12:56 AM EST reply actions

I think he can become tolerable at 2B defensively. And if he can play anything approaching neutral defense, he’ll be an above-average performer at the position given his other package of skills. I know that a lot of the previous regime liked Valdez more, but I think Galvez winds up being a much better bat.
For the Padres of course, he could easily wind up being leapfrogged by Spangenberg, (and depending on Cumberland’s story for the coming year, the middle infield in San Antonio just got a LOT more crowded), so he’s a guy whose opportunity to create a path for himself could be pretty small, even with his talent and age.

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 1:49 AM EST up reply actions

Valdez

…can play short, Galvez is a 2B at best…

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 3, 2025 1:44 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

I don’t think there are many folks who really believe Jeudy will stay on SS as he moves up.

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 9:33 PM EST up reply actions

He wasn't protected from the rule 5

I can’t believe it either. I wonder if anyone snags him?

by johnnycomelately9 on Dec 3, 2025 8:11 AM EST up reply actions

Even if he’s taken, he’ll be in San Antonio by May 1. I like him, but he’s nowhere near ready for a job in the majors.

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

unless he is dealt...

Sometimes happens with Rule V player who are plucked but teams know will never stick in the bigs for a season.

by dbreer23 on Dec 3, 2025 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

The org llikes him

The reason they left him unprotected is that they feel strongly they’ll get him back if he is selected.

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

no way he would stick on a 25 man roster all year

not even close to ready.

by walnut falcons on Dec 3, 2025 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

The

Padres could also see Cumberland get plucked. Could be rough for them, although it’s not their fault on Cumberland. More importantly, glad to see him healthy.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 3, 2025 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

don't see that happening

Limited to 2B for the most part, almost completely unproven bat without all that much upside.

by mrkupe on Dec 3, 2025 6:11 PM EST up reply actions

Eh

I see Cumberland as having more upside than about anyone else eligible.

Guess we will have to agree to disagree. I could see someone doing worse in the Rule 5 draft.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 3, 2025 7:01 PM EST up reply actions

Well, I guess I should ask then

What do you see his upside as? He does have some talent - he could hit for average while playing a good second base. That said:

1) He hasn’t hit at AA yet
2) He hasn’t played in 1.5 years
3) He’s going to be 23 with barely 1,000 plate appearances as a pro

He wouldn’t stick on a major league roster at this point obviously, especially as he can’t really play SS at a high level.

by mrkupe on Dec 3, 2025 7:51 PM EST up reply actions

I mean

I think he could be an above-average MIF. I’d try and stick him at SS. Obviously he loses significant value if he can’t do that.

Maybe Stephen Drew as his upside? I mean that’s like a 95th percentile outcome probably, but I’d rather take that than a LOOGY or something.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 3, 2025 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

I just can't see him as a shortstop

His range was mediocre and his arm strength well below-average for the position when I saw him, and that was back in mid-2010.

by mrkupe on Dec 3, 2025 9:06 PM EST up reply actions

I'll

trust your judgment. I don’t know that much about him; just know his name more than anything, and remembered he was a solid MIF prospect for the Padres who couldn’t stay healthy.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 4, 2025 3:30 AM EST up reply actions

Some names to think about

Curious how you handle the utter wildcard that is Donavan Tate. 12 months from now, he will either be a Top 50 prospect or released by the organization. I really don’t think there’s a middle of his road.
Speaking of wildcards, even with the unresolved questions about his age, Alcantara/name TBD has to be mentioned. The tool set is special.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Duanel Jones open the year in Ft. Wayne as an 18 year old, and he could be the big breakout of the year in the system.
Eight different pitchers who started at least one game for San Antonio last year are legitimate prospects for a major league pitching job.
I’m really hopeful that one of the new sets of eyes in the organization comes in and recognizes that Blake Tekotte deserves a legit shot in RF for the club. He’s a much better option than Will Venable both defensively and offensively.
Matt Lollis is in line to put up some pretty impressive numbers for the Missions this year.

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 2:11 AM EST reply actions

prediction...

within two years D. Tate is playing college football for the Georgia Bulldogs

by ScottAZ on Dec 3, 2025 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Tekotte

…doesn’t have the arm for RF.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 3, 2025 1:45 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

arm is a secondary concern

It’s nice, even ideal, to have a RF with a big arm, but it’s something that you want in addition to the ability to play the field well, not in place of it.

by mrkupe on Dec 3, 2025 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

I'll probably get

tons of snark for this, but Nelson Cruz not being able to catch that ball in the World Series comes to mind. Ya he’s got a cannon, but it did him no good in that situation.

Yes, it’s a very isolated event and I realized Cruz is actually a competent (at worst) right fielder. I just thought it was a decent real world example, it’s the first thing I thought of, and its 3:33 so posting it seems like a good idea.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 4, 2025 3:33 AM EST up reply actions

Your question

If they had hired me as Byrnes’s fourth right hand instead of Minaya today, I would make the following recommendations:
Open the year with Rizzo at 1B, Blanks in LF and Tekotte in RF, with Venable the #4 outfielder. Non-tender Denorfia and go with Cunningham; Make Mark Kotsay promise he will not bring an outfielder’s glove with him.
Don’t fall victim to believing in Guzman enough to think he should start more than 20 games all year. Keep him as a nice bat bench.
I’d give the opening day SS job to Everth Cabrera. If you can get more in trade for Hudson than Bartlett, move Hudson and shift Bartlett across to 2B, as he’s no longer valuable defensively at SS anyway.
Start Darnell in Tucson playing LF daily.

Following this approach, by the end of 2012, you know if you have a real commodity in Blanks (I think you probably do), Venable (I doubt it) and Cabrera (maybe). That allows you to make an informed decision about where to make a difference-making big league acquisition heading in to 2013.

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 2:40 AM EST reply actions

I would dangle Guzman

and trade him for the most respectable offer I got. Likely an AL team..

by walnut falcons on Dec 3, 2025 4:38 AM EST up reply actions

The organization has to be about player development.

I’d rather let them develop naturally and take a skills based approach to promotions. It’s fine if the player is mashing PCL or AA, but does the player have a glaring weakness that could be exploited at the major league level?, etc. What I don’t want is players being rushed to help the big club just because it’s struggling. We’ll be better off in the long run if we just focus all our efforts on player development and letting the prospects go when they’re ready.

I believe Guzman is a legit bat at first. His defense is mediocre/bad, but he’s definitely not a butcher there. I’d let Rizzo, who is still just 22, spend a year in AAA learning a COF spot. He’s got to figure out a way to shorten and smooth out his swing before he comes back to the majors. I’m only somewhat confident he will be able to do that. But then, Byrnes made the point in a recent interview that you don’t necessarily need the best swing to be successful. Hunter Pence has a sucky swing and he does just fine. We’ll see. In any case, Guzman should be able to handle first and keep hitting those lazy flares to right for a high batting average.

I’d start Blanks and Venable in the COF spots and give them a half season. If they still suck, they’re toast. I’d go with Darnell and Cunningham the rest of the way to see if they’ve got anything. I’m not a huge fan of Tekotte or Forsythe, so I’m not worried about getting them into the lineup. Parrino and Everth Cabrera are role players, nothing more. Gyorko is the only legit position prospect we have to worry about position-wise, but we’ve got awhile to figure that one out. All other position players are a ways off.

Stauffer, Bass and Luebke have all benefited and become better pitchers from their time in the pen. I would funnel all the pitching talent in the organization through the bullpen before they’re allowed in the rotation. I’d want all of them, Castro, Erlin, Wieland, Sampson, Kelly, to spend a half to full season in the pen. It’s good for player development and it insures a steady supply of good arms in the bullpen. I know some people think it’s stupid to “waste” service time of our top arms in the bullpen, but I’d just refer them to the title of this post.

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Dec 3, 2025 4:18 AM EST reply actions

Castro seems likely for the 'pen anyway

If he becomes a shutdown, late-inning reliever, that is still a win in my book.

by walnut falcons on Dec 3, 2025 4:39 AM EST up reply actions

+1

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Dec 3, 2025 5:15 AM EST up reply actions

+1

by polyrhythm07 on Dec 3, 2025 11:43 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

If any member of the new regime suggests moving Rizzo to the outfield for even one inning of work, they should be summarily fired. If they suggest it in order to make Guzman a starter at the big league level, they should be denied the right to ever enter a baseball stadium again.

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

All Guzman did was hit .320/.384/.476 in the second half.

Rizzo hit 141/.281/.242 in his brief callup and showed some pretty glaring weaknesses while doing it. Guzman cannot under any circumstances play the OF. Rizzo potentially could. It would give the Padres some options if Rizzo could hold down an OF spot. I’m not saying he should stay there, but while he’s working on his swing in AAA, why not see if he could hold down a COF spot? We might need both bats in the lineup.

Obviously you don’t believe in Guzman. I’d be willing to lay money he hits well next season.

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Dec 3, 2025 11:44 AM EST up reply actions

Over the last month, when opponents had seen him even a little bit, he hit 280/350/380. He will continue to be exposed more with more big league at bats.

by realitypolice on Dec 3, 2025 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

thats a big park to have Rizzo and Blanks as your OF corners

that would even run Willie Mays Hayes ragged

by ScottAZ on Dec 3, 2025 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

trade...

Rizzo and give 1B to Blanks… He’s better & better suited to Petco (as RHH)

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 3, 2025 1:48 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

I'd trade Rizzo to Texas for Olt or Perez.

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Dec 4, 2025 8:30 AM EST up reply actions

Great point someone else made

Last year BA ranked Erlin as the 34th best prospect in baseball when he was still with Texas. The padres then traded for him and he puts up even better numbers in their organization (he was nearly as dominant as Wieland was with the Missions… both greater than Kelly. Kelly was the 4th or 5th best in his rotation). Now they’ve released their padre top 10 and they’ve ranked Erlin #8 (according to gaslampball). Does that mean they’re going to ranked 8 padres in their top 35, or are they going to rank guys ahead of him on their organizational list, and lower on their top 100?

by johnnycomelately9 on Dec 3, 2025 8:32 AM EST reply actions

no, they are not ranking 8 Padres in the top 35

I would be surprised if there is ONE Padre in their top 35.

There are a lot of oddities when it comes to the BA midseason list, but Erlin’s case is especially strange. He’s not “only” the 8th best prospect in that system.

Still, you’re focusing too much on the numbers, especially when it comes to Kelly. He had far and away the best pure stuff in that rotation. I’m not saying that you should throw the statistics out the window by any means, but when you look for things that could project to premium big league success, Kelly’s got more of them than the other guys.

by mrkupe on Dec 3, 2025 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

I can understand the Kelly ranking

The Erlin ranking doesn’t make sense to me though. Of course there is no way they put 8 Padres in the top 50, but it’s not like Erlin’s ‘stuff’ changed between the point of that mid-season list and now either.

Now they suddenly drop him to 8th in the org? Which is probably somewhere around 80-110 overall.

Are the organizational lists done by one guy? While the top 100 list is done by all the evaluators over at BA? So Erlin will probably fare much better on the top 100 list compared to the other Padres on this org. list?

by Antonio Olivares on Dec 3, 2025 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

Erlin's ranking is very strange

As far as I can tell, it seems only to be based on lack of projectability in his body. He has good stuff, was young for AA, strikes guys out and has elite control. If he were 6’5 he BA would probably have him at the top of this list.

by walnut falcons on Dec 3, 2025 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

that BA midseason top 50 list

always has a few random pitchers on it that don’t make any sense. one year chuck lofgren was like #24 and everybody was all “whut” and you never heard any more about it. i think they let an intern do that list, it doesn’t mean anything, ignore it

by wily mo on Dec 3, 2025 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

Haha

That could be true, but also remember one guy makes the BA top 10 list, while the top 100 list is a group effort.

Could simply be the guy who made the Padres list is/was down on Erlin.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 3, 2025 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Medica fan here

Would like to see him on this list as well - how much of a hitter park is Hi A Lake Elsinore though & did that skew his performance up a bit? If he can stay at C, nice bat.

by qksilver on Dec 3, 2025 11:31 AM EST reply actions

The California league is definitely a hitter's league

But Medica was hitting well in Fort Wayne as well. Though he was a bit old for single A ball. The key with him will be if he can come back and play catcher. He does have a solid bat, but maybe not enough for 1B.

Another note about that Lake Elsinore team. I think people are overly harsh on the pitchers there this last season. Lollis and De Paula had solid peripherals, despite bad ERA’s. I don’t think statistics, even FIP, can isolate a pitcher’s performance from a pitching environment that bad. They were playing in hitters parks, but more than that they had a god awful defense behind them. Having errors constantly extend innings probably has more of an effect on pitching performance than unearned runs or FIP show.

I expect Lollis and De Paula to have rebound seasons next year whether they start in AA or just stay in Hi A while having most of that defense move on.

by Antonio Olivares on Dec 3, 2025 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

yes, the Cal. Lg.

Is a hitters’ league, but Lake Elsinore is a pitchers’ park… 425 to left-center…

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 3, 2025 1:52 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

yep

I’m really interested to see what Lollis does, but given his own performance and profile, along with the huge number of other arms in the system, it makes entirely too much sense for both him and the organization to think about his future as a reliever first.

Has his role for 2012 been determined yet? I’d think he’d probably be back in the rotation to work on his overall game, but it’s not exactly like San Antonio is going to be lacking for arms.

by mrkupe on Dec 3, 2025 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

Tate

really curious what ends up happening with him. He hit well this year when he was actually on the field, but obviously that is his biggest issue. Handled A ball very well in a limited sample, but showed very little power. I guess the reality is that a full year’s worth of at bats, even if he struggles, would be a positive at this point.

by walnut falcons on Dec 3, 2025 8:59 PM EST reply actions