The Only Top 100 List You'll Ever Need

disagree with some arrangements in the middle; but the best list I’ve seen for 2012.

Maybe this is addressed somewhere in the thread, and I just missed it: Why are some names in bold blue type and others not?

Teheran is a name we have been seeing for awhile. He’s been in the minors and on lists for 3 years now. To compare him with Hultzen is just silly, though. Teheran is over a year younger (a big deal at this point) and was a top-5 starter in the AAA Internation League. At age 20. He was the youngest pitcher in the league, and he led in Wins and was top 10 in strikeouts, while putting up a 2.55 ERA, which was second only to Jeanmar Gomez among pitchers with over 100 innings. He had a great year. Against better competition than Hultzen faced in college. (At least I would think that AAA has better hitters than college. Probably by a significant margin).

Its easy to get tired of seeing the same name at the top of the list year after year, and wanting to change things up a bit. But in actual fact there is no reason to move Teheran below recent draftees who are older than him and still have a blank page at baseball-reference.com. He’s doing spectacularly. That isn’t to knock Hultzen, who I agree looks extremely promising. But Teheran probably, in fact, should be the 5th member of that top “super-super” group.

Johnny Hellweg is WAYYYYY too high.

Should be top 50 guy but will be lucky to be remembered by people making list.

It’s a personal list, as opposed to a consensus one. So there’s plenty of gut instinct going on, things that can probably only be validated or not by time. I obviously think highly of Trout, but I think his ceiling is getting over-estimated. I think he’s more Jacoby Ellsbury, with Ellsbury’s peaks and valleys. Super valuable, but I think Profar will be more of a game-changer.

I suppose Liriano is a guy I don’t have a great feel for, so I want to see him at a higher level. Of course, this is contradictory to my very aggressive Hellweg ranking, but I really think something clicked for Hellweg, and I think he has legit ace ceiling. Of course, so did Andrew Brackman.

I think Hultzen’s ceiling has been underestimated, because he is a lefty and because he seems like a high-floor guy. I think there’s an unspoken bias: high floor = low ceiling. I don’t think that’s the case w/ Hultzen.

Thanks for the responses.

I know that Trout’s ceiling, and floor are better than Profar’s

you sure about that? Profar’s ceiling is pretty outrageous.

I talk about Arcia below. It’s curious to me that he’s so highly ranked by some folks. It’ll be interesting to follow him in ‘12, to see if there’s something there that I’ve missed seeing so far.

And according to fangraphs he has the second most WAR of any shortstop since his first full season in the league (2001). Note, I’m discounting their listing of A-Rod there, because he’s spent the last 8 years at third.

So given that there is a current example of a small player at Profar’s position who has arguably been super duper elite for the last decade overall, why can’t Profar’s ceiling put him into that category of prospects?

Maybe he believes Rendon is healthy, or fairly healthy. If so, #8 could be low. Starling is exactly where he should be. Too raw to go any higher. Think Tate from 2009.

His tools are very good, but he has never had an impressive professional season yet, aside from the stolen base total.

He’s one of those guys I’ve taken a real shine to. Strikeouts are a problem, but I think he has game-changing abilities in the field and on the bases. He’s also so young for his level, and has shown such an aptitude for making adjustments, that I’m willing to bet on continued improvement.

1. Since this is a personal list, my thinking is: which guy would I pick first in a draft? I do put a lot of weight on scouting reports, especially for the chance to get a legit TOR arm, which seems like the toughest thing to get. I see Wil Myers as a Jayson Werth type. I think he’s probably a future all-star, but I’d rather fish for the potential ace.

2. On Hamilton vs Segura, it simply comes down to Hamilton’s unworldly speed. I’m a sucker for a guy with an otherworldly tool in his shed. I don’t know if it can be statistically proven, but my intuition is that a guy with the best speed in organized baseball, his speed could potentially feed into his overall game: not just baserunning, but his hitting/on-base and his defense. When one tool (or a pitch, for a pitcher) is so extraordinary, it seems to elevate other aspects of the player’s game.

3. I don’t have a good read on Arcia, honestly. BA had him around 15 on their FSL list, right? I suppose I haven’t read or seen anything to make me stand up and notice him yet.

4. I don’t know. I probably wouldn’t count him as a prospect. I’d guess I’d have a hard time choosing between selecting him or Teheran in a draft, so probably around 10-15.

Wong is a guy I thought about. College guys with really nice hit tools can be tough to get a read on, especially in the lower minors. I went with Spangenberg because he’s also got terrific speed. I recognize, though, that Wong could very well be an ideal #2 hitter with good defense. I wouldn’t necessarily argue with someone who would rank him as high as 80 or so. I’d probably have him in the next ten.

No thanks.

I felt I had him pretty high at 43.

I’ve been reading that he has a pretty sub-prime hit tool. I see him as a good 4th of.

I have already changed your mind about that, you just don’t know it yet

Well played.

If he can be average to a tick above as a hitter, he’ll be an asset I think

People have been overestimating Aaron Hicks for so long now that it might be difficult to know when to cut bait.

The Pirates started pumping a ton of money into the 2008 draft when they took Pedro Alvarez #2. Sanchez wasn’t taken solely because he was cheap, he was taken because he was part of a draft class that dropped of dramatically after Strasburg and Ackley. The Pirates also spent big in later rounds, giving a 9-figure bonus to guys like Zack Von Rosenberg in the 6th round.

Sanchez did not have a good year. At the same time, his defense improved, his K:BB numbers were fine, his problem was an inability to drive the ball with any authority. For a guy playing 10-15 lbs under his playing weight because of a liquid diet, I’d say that’s understandable. Just as a comparison, take a look at what happened to the 2010 #46 prospect Dee Gordon’s status after a lousy season that year and then tell me why a lousy year by the 2011 #46 prospect Tony Sanchez means he “shouldn’t have sniffed this list.”