Hypothetical Braves-Reds-Rockies trade

Plus I think the Reds would want more than Jair for Alonso plus a B prospect.
It looks like the Braves are the big winners here, but I can’t imagine the Rockies or Reds go along with the trade.
A more fair version, to me:
Reds receive: Jair, B-level from Rockies
Rockies receive: Yonder, Prado
Braves receive: Dexter, B-level from Reds

Jurrjens for Alonso looks the the core of a simple-enough trade. The Braves need a corner OF bat, Alonso can probably stick in a corner; maybe the Reds throw in a middle-infield prospect or something.

I think the Rockies would regret trading Arenado - they need a long-term 3B more than they need another corner outfielder (Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith, and they’ve got some decent OF prospects already). Prado’s probably not going to help when they’re really ready to compete again. Looks like a losing proposition in the long run on their end.

Change Fowler with Charlie Blackmon and that would be a fair deal for all involved. I like Blackmon better than Fowler and besides the Rockies value Fowler more than Blackmon.

My first reaction is that it isn’t a deal I would say ‘we have to jump on that deal’ from any of the three team perspectives.

The Reds don’t need another middle rotation type arm which is what jurrjens really is, they have alot of those type guys, they desperately need a stud at the top of the rotation that they can depend on.

The Braves are giving up a lot more than they are getting back. Losing Jurrjens and Prado and getting Fowler and Arrenado is a terrible trade loss for the Braves

The Rockies wouldn’t give up Arrenado for an Alonso type 1B. I like Alonso but he’s isn’t an impact type guy, and they believe Arrenado could be. And Fowler for Prado is kind of a wash. I would rather have Fowler, likely similar production going forward, younger, cheaper, and plays a more valuable position.

There’s no way you give up an injury-prone mid-rotation starter and a versatile but uninspiring position player coming off his worst year (not to mention his trade value is shot since it’s obvious the Braves don’t want him anymore) and get a top prospect, a former top prospect who is still young and has great tools, and two additional B prospects.

Here’s a realistic version:

Reds get Jurrjens, B prospect from Rockies

Rockies get Alonso, Prado

Braves get Fowler, B prospect from Rockies

First off, not even based off talent, they won’t trade Arenado because they need a long term solution at third. They’re committed to building within, and Arenado has a pretty good chance of being better than Prado or Alonso will ever be, so Arenado is completely off the table in any deal with the Reds and Braves.

The only reason the Rockies are involved with Prado is because of their outfield glut. Wheeler and Blackmon won’t be as good as Smith initially, but they’re not looking to compete in 2012 (2013 is their window opening), so it makes sense for them to start one of Wheeler or Blackmon (probably Blackmon now, Wheeler in the future). They’ll move Smith AND Wheeler in the right deal, but not just for Prado, and unless Alonso has an option left, he won’t fit, because Helton is our 2012 starter, but I think Alonso has one. Fowler won’t be moving unless it’s for a guy like Wright, and even then the Rockies hesitate. I’m wondering how a potential deal would work in all teams favors…..maybe something like WhyGodWhy’s trade except the Rockies don’t give anything to the Reds (his deal heavily favors the Reds), and Fowler is replaced by Smith and Wheeler. Maybe a pitching prospect like Edwar Cabrera goes along to the Braves? (they did well with Beachy, they’d do well with Cabrera)