Rich Wilson's Top 100 Prospect List (#76-#100)

Today marks the beginning of my 2012 Top 101 prospects review. In this post, we'll be looking at prospects #101 to #76. Additionally, I'll be doing a special podcast on Monday, December 12th at 9pm to discuss - http://tinyurl.com/bshy6e3.

76. Bryce Brentz – OF (Boston Red Sox)

Drafted in the Supplement Round of the 2010 draft, Bryce Brentz’s calling card is his plus-plus raw power. Across Low-A and High-A in 2011, Brentz belted 30 home runs but did have some contact problems (75%) as his swing will get long as he tries to muscle up. 2012 will be an important year for Brentz as he moves to Double-A and more advanced pitching.

77. John Lamb – LHP (Kansas City Royals)

John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery were the lefties of the future for the Kansas Royals. Duffy made it to the show and had limited success, Montgomery lost his command and Lamb had Tommy John Surgery. Best laid plans… While there is now considerable risk placed on John Lamb as not everyone recovers from TJS, the talent is still there. His fastball sits at 92-94MPH with above average control and command and his curve and change-up both flash plus. Three above average pitches with above average command? I’ll take it, TJS or not.

78. Grant Green – SS/OF (Oakland A’s)

Drafted as a shortstop, moved to second, and now it appears he will make his way to the majors as an outfielder. Grant Green is a nice athletic player with an upside of a solid regular. Fans in particular got excited in 2010 when he hit 20 home runs in the California league, but for many young players, the power leaves upon promotion to Double-A. I would look for a .270 player with 10-15 home run power and 10 stolen bases.

79. Jedd Gyorko – 3B (San Diego Padres)

When you first see Jedd Gyorko, you don’t think, “WOW, that guy looks like a ballplayer?????” Short and squat at 5-10 and 195 lbs, Jedd Gyorko posses a great hit tool with nice bat speed and above average power potential. In 2011, he had an excellent 80% contact rate and an 11% walk rate. Based on his lack of athleticism, Gyorko may eventually move to a corner outfield spot. While he demonstrated power in the hitter friendly CAL league, the home runs didn't follow him to Double-A.

80. Sonny Gray – RHP (Oakland A’s)

Sonny Gray is not a physically imposing pitcher, standing only 5-10 and weighing a nice squatty 200lbs. He is though a strikeout pitcher due to his plus power curve that is clearly a swing and miss pitch. He was able to get 22 innings in professional ball during 2011, primarily in Double-A and was impressive, striking out 20 battings and walking only 6. Look for Gray to start 2012 in Double-A with a potential September call-up.

81. Derek Norris – C (Washington Nationals)

Derek Norris appears to be your prototypical young catcher working his way to the majors. He has power as is evidence by his 20 home runs in Double-A in 2011 but he also struck out 117 times in 339 at bats. I’ll save you the trouble of running for your calculator, that’s a 65% contact rate. What might set him apart and make him a solid regular major leaguer is he’s a walk machine. Last year, he had a walk rate of 20% and in 2010, his walk rate was a ridiculous 30%.

82. Mason Williams – OF (New York Yankees)

Signed as a $1.45M overslot 4th round draftee in the 2010 draft, Mason Williams was one of the poster children for Bud Selig’s clamp down on draft spending. The early results are showing that Williams was well worth the money. With plus-plus speed and very good defensive centerfield skills, the Yankees revamped his swing to increase the time through the zone in order to drive more pitches. The results in 2011 were encouraging. In 289 at bats in the NY Penn league, Williams batted .349 with a decent .468 SLG while striking out only 41 times and walking 20 times. Oh yeah, he stole 28 bases.

83. Matt Szczur – OF (Chicago Cubs)

In 2010, Szczur picked baseball over football as he signed a complicated deal with the Cubs. When drafted, scouts knew Szczur had plus-plus speed but worried that he would hit enough. In 2011, that was not a problem as he batted .293 across Low-A in High-A to go along with 24 stolen bases. His contact rate was nearly 90% but his walk rate was a paltry 6%. He’s a bit of a slappy hitter, so don’t expect a lot of power once fully developed.

84. Zack Cox – 3B (St. Louis Cardinals)

Drafted as a first rounder in the 2010 draft, Cox signed for an impressive $3M signing bonus based on his hit tool. The hit tool did not fail in his first year of professional ball, batting .306 across High-A and Double-A with a 98K/40BB in 516 at bats. The concern when he came out of college was his ability to hit for power. In High-A, he hit only three home runs in the cavernous Florida State League but upon promotion to the more hitter friendly Texas League, he hit 10 bombs. With little speed and average defensive skills, Cox will need to develop some pop in order to be viewed as a first division starter.

85. Allen Webster – RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)

At 21 years-old, Allen Webster is already deemed to be a very polished pitcher with a 92-94MPH fastball with heavy sink that produced a very high number of ground ball outs (1.76 GO/AO in 2011). He has a plus change-up with an improving curve and a great strikeout rate of 135K in 145 innings. With his stuff and command, it was surprising that he gave up a 101 hits in 90 innings in Double-A. Should we chalked it up to a very unlucky BABIP or is his stuff just hittable to more advanced hitters?

86. Nate Eovaldi - RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Nate Eovaldi had Tommy John surgery in his junior year of high school and that scared many teams off from signing him. The Dodgers took the plunge in the 11th round and have been rewarded as Eovaldi made his major league debut at the ripe old age of 21. He wasn’t overly effective as he walked 20 in 35 innings but his stuff and minor league track record predict a promising future. Eovaldi throws a heavy 92-93MPH two-seam fastball hitting higher and causing lots of ground balls (GO/AO of 1.49). His curveball is above average and even flashes plus, while his change-up is still pretty fringy. While he might have been rushed, there’s a lot to like here.

87. George Springer – OF (Houston Astros)

After Anthony Rendon, many scouts considered George Springer to be the best college positional bat in the 2011 draft. He has a nice combination of power and speed but his swing can get a little long and is therefore prone to strikeout a lot. Scouts do love his make-up, so he should take instruction well and hopefully correct both his erratic approach and propensity to strikeout. While there is huge upside in Springer, it doesn’t come free.

88. Josh Bell – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Josh Bell had everyone convinced that he was going to the University of Texas to play on a partial scholarship for three years. However, a $5M signing bonus plus a fund set aside to pay for four years at a University down the road goes a long way. Bell is blessed with tremendous physical gifts, including a lot of natural raw power and the ability to make hard contact. He is an older high school player and will actually turn 20 during his first year of pro ball but is also relatively advanced for most players coming directly from high school to professional ball.

89. Josh Vitters – 3B (Chicago Cubs)

Taken #3 overall in the 2007 draft, Josh Vitters continues to confound everybody in baseball. He has one of the best right-handed strokes in any level of professional baseball, but his approach is one of the worse. Without changes, Vitters will never become the elite player that the Cubs thought they drafted. Make-up is an overused phrase, but in my mind, a player who is unwilling to take instruction and continue to believe he has all the answers is the definition of bad make-up. Most thought last year was the make it or break it year, I’m giving it one more year.

90. Robbie Erlin – LHP (San Diego Padres)

If you look only at stats, Robbie Erlin looks like the best pitcher in the minors. In 2011, across High-A and Double-A, he struck out 154 batters in 147.1 innings while only walking 16. You know you have good control when you can name the guys you walked! The fastball is only average at 88-91MPH but since he throws strikes, he gets ahead of batters and puts them away with two plus secondary pitches -a nasty curve and even better change-up. The move to San Deigo is what has gotten me excited as I believe that profile will play well in the Petco Park and the poor offensive environment of the NL West.

91. Addison Reed – RHP (Chicago White Sox)

It’s a little frightening when the best prospect in an MLB organization is a relief pitcher, but that is the sad case with the Chicago White Sox and years of playing by the slot recommendation of Major League Baseball. That said, Addison Reed is a very good pitcher. With the ability to throw in the upper 90’s with a nasty slider and also an above average change-up, Reed could eventually profile as a starter but most scouts believe he will be most effective as an “all-out” late inning reliever. Don’t be shocked if Addison Reed becomes the White Sox closer as early as 2012, he’s that good.

92. Matt Davidson – 3B (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Drafted in the supplemental round of the 2009 draft, Matt Davidson brings a combination of a quick bat with a nice approach to the plate that should enable him to become a solid regular third baseman in the big leagues. In 2011 in High-A, Davidson hit 20 home runs but did strikeout an alarming 147 times in 535. Given his quick power stroke, this is hopefully more of being overly aggressive as opposed to have a flaw in his swing. Expect Davidson to start 2012 in Double-A.

93. Tyrell Jenkins – RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)

St. Louis is stacked with elite pitching prospects and while Tyrell Jenkins might be one of the lesser known pitching prospects, his stuff and athleticism are as good as anyone in the system. Jenkins was taken in the Supplemental Round of the 2010 draft with a $1.3M signing bonus to lure him away from Baylor as a wide receiver. Jenkins sits 93-96MPH with a tight 12-6 curve and an emerging change-up. He’ll move to full season ball next year at Low-A, where more fans will get a chance to see what all the excitement is about.

94. Joe Wieland – RHP (San Diego Padres)

Wieland was the other finesse pitcher in the Mike Adams trade at the 2011 trading deadline. His fastball ranges in the 88-92MPH range with a big breaking curve. His average change-up completes the arsenal. The results in 2011 across High-A and Double A were extremely impressive with 150 strikeouts in 155.2 inning with only 21 walks. As with Robbie Erlin, high control and command pitchers with average to above average stuff can play very well in Petco and the NL West.

95. Alex Meyer – RHP (Washington Nationals)

Alex Meyer is a high risk/high reward prospect. Taken as the 23rd pick in the 2011 draft, Meyer has great stuff with a plus 94-96MPH explosive fastball to go along with a plus-plus slider with late life and tilt. The problem is the control and at 6-9, he’s got a tough job ahead of him. In fact, many scouts don’t believe his control will ever get above average and that could eventually force him to the bullpen. His stuff is elite but whether he can harness and control the stuff is where the risk exists.

96. Starling Marte – OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)

I’m not sold on Starling Marte. On the positive side, he’s got plus-plus speed that translates into speed on the base path as well as excellent range in the outfield. In fact, he’s a joy to watch in the outfield, seemingly able to catch anything hit near him. The problem is an overly aggressive approach at the plate. Marte swings at everything, walking 22 times in 536 at bats in Double-A. Fortunately he does make contact and with his speed, has a chance to reach base frequently. Throw in some above average power and Marte has a chance to be a star if he can just temper his overly aggressive approach at the plate.

97. Justin Nicolino – LHP (Toronto Blue Jays)

Justin Nicolino was the best pitcher in the Northwest League in 2011 with a 64K/11B over 52 innings. Nicolino was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft and at 19 years old, has a nice three pitch arsenal that includes a 90-92MPH fastball with a lot of sink (1.44 GO/AO rate). He’ll pick up where he left off in Low-A to start the 2012 season. With his maturity and arsenal, a mid season promotion to High-A seems reasonable.

98. Chad Bettis – RHP (Colorado Rockies)

Bettis was taken in the second round of the 2010 draft out of Texas Tech University. He has plus velocity, sitting 93-94 and touching higher. His secondary pitches are ok but still need work with an above average curve and a below average change-up. He pitched the entire 2011 season in the hitter friendly California league and dominated, striking out 184 in 169.2 and walking only 45. They key will be the development of his change-up. If it progresses, he could be a solid #3 with #2 upside. If not, he has a chance to be a late inning reliever.

99. Jed Bradley – LHP (Milwaukee Brewers)

Taken with the #15 pick in the 2011 amateur draft, Bradley is a power lefty with a major league frame at 6-4 and 225 lbs. His fastball sits at 88-94MPH with sink; which is a broad range and therefore shows some inconsistencies. He also has a plus slider and his change-up is decent for a college pitcher, but will need to improve. Scouts love his makeup and believe he will quickly advance through the system.

100. Javier Baez – SS (Chicago Cubs)

One of the better high school positional prospects in the 2011 draft, Javier Baez has a very quick bat with plus raw power. While he was drafted as a shortstop, most scouts believe he will outgrow the position and will have to move to 3B. He got very high marks in the Arizona Instructional League, which is good as the big black mark against Baez was a questionable make-up.

101. Luis Heredia – RHP (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Luis Heredia fits the profile of a #101 ranking in a Top 100 list – a kid who has sky high potential but with tremendous risk. Heredia who hails from Mexico, signed one of the largest international bonuses at $2.6M in 2010 for Pittsburgh. He’s a big kid at 6-6 and 205lbs and has an electric fastball that can flash in the upper 90’s. He’s already proven an ability to spin a curve and his change-up has flashed plus potential. Ignore the stats in the Gulf league because at 16-years old, what can you really expect? Next year, Heredia could be a legitimate Top 50 prospect or be put in the bucket of woulda/coulda.