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Minor League Notes, July 15, 2010


 

Minor League Notes, July 15, 2025

**Mike Trout impressed a lot of people at the Future's Game, and now will get a chance to do the same following his recent promotion to the California League. He went 1-for-4 last night in his debut for Rancho Cucamonga. At Cedar Rapids, he was hitting .362/.454/.526 with 46 walks, 52 strikeouts in 312 at-bats, along with 45 steals in 54 attempts. Midwest League observers are full of praise for his speed, athleticism, and defense. His plate discipline is very good, and the main thing he needs to improve is his home run power, though I'm confident that he will hit more homers eventually. The jump to the Cal League will challenge him, but he had nothing left to prove at Cedar Rapids, and indeed he may put up very similar numbers despite the boost in competition, due to the pro-offense nature of the league compared to the more pitching-friendly MWL. I had Trout rated as a B+ and Number 28 on my pre-season prospect list; he's a virtual lock for the Top Ten at this point unless he completely flounders at Rancho.

**Another interesting recent promotion is Cubs outfielder Brett Jackson, hitting .327/.435/.519 in 14 games since moving up to Double-A Tennessee two weeks ago. He'd hit .316/.420/.517 in 67 games for Daytona, so his production has remained virtually the same, obviously an excellent sign. Don't forget five steals in six attempts since moving up. Jackson's strike zone judgment (a weakness in college) has been sharp as a pro, with a 51/75 BB/K this year in 315 at-bats. The strikeout rate is maybe a bit higher than ideal, but with all the walks and his overall production, I'm not worried about it. Reviews of his athleticism, outfield range, and arm strength are all positive. Given Chicago's propensity to move prospects quickly, he could be in the Wrigley outfield less than a year from now. Possible comp: about midway between Jim Edmonds and the non-50-homer version of Brady Anderson.

**Zack Von Rosenberg Watch: He's been much better in his last two outings for State College in the New York-Penn League, throwing 10 innings, with a 9/2 K/BB, just seven hits and two runs allowed. His ERA is down to 4.85 with a 17/6 K/BB in 26 innings; not bad at all given how badly his first three stats went. Best of all, velocity is reportedly back to what was originally expected after being down in spring training. NY-P sources report he's made some mental adjustments and is adapting rapidly to the pro environment.

**Got a question from a Yankees fan regarding Brad Suttle, something of a forgotten player after he missed all of '09 with a torn labrum. Suttle is hitting .257/.319/.364 in 83 games for Tampa in the Florida State League, hardly impressive performance and not what the former University of Texas stalwart was expected to produce when the Yankees drafted him. But my reader notes that Suttle has been hot lately (.306/.382/.531 in July), and looked good very good in a couple of games he saw last week. A different source who saw Suttle in April said his bat looked slow and rusty early in the year, understandable given the layoff. Pre-injury, Suttle got praise for his plate discipline and overall approach at the plate, but scouts weren't sure he'd have the power for third base. We'll have to see if the current hot streak persists. He's split the season between third base and first base, and his defensive numbers at the hot corner aren't awful. Now 24 years old, Suttle has to make up for some lost time, but is still worth tracking.

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Comments

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Some good reads

on the Pirates young teenage arms at State College, per the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Profiles
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10196/1072917-63.stm

Story
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10196/1072924-63.stm

by Woo! on Jul 15, 2025 4:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Great links, Woo

Thanks for those. That pitching coach — could he have a more appropriate name than Mike Steele — is psychotic. In a good way. Glad to see ZVR’s rapid improvement, and I liked his comments in the profile. Even though he’s struggled the most batters he’s walked in a start is two and he hasn’t allowed a homer since his first start. Such an improvement in his last three starts over his first three.

by blackoutyears on Jul 15, 2025 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds like ZVR

is adapting quickly.

by Woo! on Jul 15, 2025 4:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Mike Trout

I’m a newbie when it comes to prospects so I hope this is not a dumb question. But if Trout does not develop power, do you see him as a Ichiro/T Gwynn type of hitter. I guess from reading the scouting reports, he can be a .300+, 10-15 HR, 30+ SB a year. Just curious, thanks

by erocstrat on Jul 15, 2025 4:13 PM EDT reply actions  

trout

If he doesn’t develop big home run power, he should still hit for a very high average, yes. .300, 10 homers, 30 steals, lots of walks seems plausable.

by John Sickels on Jul 15, 2025 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I too am new at this prospects watching concept.

But it always seems to me like Jose Tabata gets a raw deal when it comes to prospect love. I know the age thing is always brought up, as well as the power, but there is no evidence that he’s not 21 years old, and he’s already in the majors and doing pretty well in the early going. I realize there’s much to prospecting that goes over my head, but it seems to me like Trout is being projected to be the player that Tabata already is, and he’s only two years younger as far as anybody knows. What am I missing as far as it relates to Tabata guys?

by Woo! on Jul 15, 2025 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

No evidence?

How about the fact that his wife starred on Golden Girls.

by King Billy Royal on Jul 15, 2025 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

What's the relation there?

You can’t seriously think that, because his wife was much older, that he had to be older as well.

by Woo! on Jul 15, 2025 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

You will find you don’t actually need factual evidence all of the time in prospect community circles. Consensus opinion is enough to overhype or tarnish a player’s future.

by jfish26101 on Jul 15, 2025 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow

Could I make the joke more obvious? Just to clarify he was not in fact married to Estelle Getty.

by King Billy Royal on Jul 15, 2025 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trout/Tabata

How is Trout’s projection similar to Tabata’s exactly? Trout gets an 80 for speed, and while Tabata runs well I don’t think he’s in that class. I think most scouts expect Trout to hit for decent power, especially as a CF; Tabata’s has never materialized and looks like it’s going to be well below avg for a corner OF. Also, Trout is three years younger based on listed dates of birth, not two. That’s a big deal at this stage of his development.

No, the big issue with Tabata is the power. As long as he struggles to slug .400 on a corner he’ll be graded down. I think he’s being accurately gauged by most.

by blackoutyears on Jul 15, 2025 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trout/Tabata

My comparison of the two comes from the projection for Mike Trout listed above. ( .300, 10 homers, 30 steals, lots of walks seems plausable.)

Tabata has hit .300 everywhere he’s been with the pirates. Tabata has over 30 steals this year already, I believe. He just walked three times in one game over the weekend. Furthermore, Tabata hit a homer in his first week in the bigs that, to the naked eye, was one of the most impressive homers for the Bucs distance wise this season. It’s not likely that he could destroy that ball that far, and yet not be able to hit one nearly as far at least another dozen times per season.

Trout is 19, correct? At 19, Tabata was posting a .348/.402/.562 line for the Altoona Curve in AA following his acquisition. Following a tumultuous start to the 2008 season, fueled by hamstring inury and the debacle with his wife, Tabata has gone on to excel in AA, the AFL, and AAA over the past year.

I just miss how this guy isn’t a higher ranked prospect when he’s still so young and is already seemingly what many of the guys I read about project to be.

by Woo! on Jul 15, 2025 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Comparison

If you read what John said, that projection of Trout (.300, 10 homers, 30 steals, lost of walks) is a projection of him if he doesn’t develop big home run power. I would agree that if he ends up that way, then a Tabata comp is not unfair. However, those who are now putting Trout in the discussion for top 5 overall are undoubtedly expecting him to develop power in excess of what Tabata has shown and that would make him a much better player than what we have seen so far from Tabata.

by knightgalt on Jul 15, 2025 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not saying Tabata is in...

Trout’s league as a prospect right now, but he and most Pirates prospects are usually underhyped. If Tabata was still with the Yankees and hitting like he did in Triple A for them, he would more than likely be a top 50 prospect, but he barely managed to crack the top 100 for most people. People would be going on about how good of a hit tool he has and how good of an eye he has. But no, not when he is a Pirate. Everyone always overhypes the negatives and under values the positives on Pirates prospects because most expect them to fail because they are a Pirate prospect.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jul 16, 2025 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

And to build on that

Tabata was already being questioned when he was a Yankee prospect because the power was absent. I mean looking at the Altoona stats, as Woo does, is the nadir of cherrypicking: 97 never again replicated plate appearances compared against the .248/.320/.310 he slashed for Trenton prior to the trade? No, he was enigmatic then and enigmatic he remains.

by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wasn't exactly cherrypicking.

Since he’s posted those numbers, he’s been above .300 at every level going forward. Just needed a scenery change apparently.

by Woo! on Jul 17, 2025 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

not sure that one long home run suddenly spells a dozen. That’s not really sound logic, that’s wishcasting. Most scouts I’ve read grade Tabata’s power down because of his swing plane, not because of raw power.

And yeah, knightgalt said it well. Tabata is one possible outcome for Trout if home runs don’t come. Trout obviously has the luxury of being a less known quantity, and I agree that that tends to lead to wishcasting on that front as well. Trout, btw, turns 19 in August, which means that he’ll play much of next season at that age, and will likely spend a chunk of it in Double-A. It certainly aids comparison. That also means Tabata turns 22 in August. Plenty young enough to surprise. I’m not writing him off at all.

As for Pirate prospects being underrated, perhaps, but Tabata used to be a Yankee. I think he’s gotten his fair share of scrutiny over the years. lol

by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Except...

Yankees prospects are mostly overrated. Joba for example and even Montero in my opinion is overrated by most.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jul 17, 2025 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brett Jackson

Dewey compared him to a Grady Sizemore type player. Does that sound like a reasonable comparison to you John?

by King Billy Royal on Jul 15, 2025 4:18 PM EDT reply actions  

sizemore

The good version of Grady Sizemore, sure.

by John Sickels on Jul 15, 2025 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Grady was a pretty good player. You honestly think Jackson is going to be similar to Grady’s best years on an annual basis? Wouldn’t that make him a top 5-10 spect?

by jfish26101 on Jul 15, 2025 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty good?

Sizemore was elite at his best.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jul 15, 2025 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed in Sizemore being elite at his best,

but does Jackson truly have that kind of power? I don’t think he has 30 homer power let alone 40 homer power that Sizemore possessed, and I’m a Cubbies fan.

Ideally, I’d hope for .290-.315, 25 hr, 25 SB, 100 RBI seasons during Jackson’s prime, but I’d say that’s on the optimistic side.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Jul 15, 2025 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

power

Yeah I don’t know if Jackson will have that kind of power. That would be a maximal outcome….not an impossible one, but not the most likely.

by John Sickels on Jul 15, 2025 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was the point. We can debate the difference between pretty good, great, elite, etc…my point was is do people truly see Jackson being Grady’s good years?

by jfish26101 on Jul 15, 2025 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sizemore's power

Sizemore surpassed 30 HR only once, and averaged 25HR / 162 games. I don’t see where the 40 HR power idea comes from, unless you’re talking about a “he did this once in his absolute prime in his best season” scenario that hasn’t yet played out.

-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Jul 15, 2025 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Grady went back in time and changed his name, throwing the current Grady as a comp on him wouldn’t be fair to him. Injuries have really derailed his career and cut into his potential. Grady had/has special tools, just a hard guy to lay as a comp on someone I think.

by jfish26101 on Jul 15, 2025 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Some peoplpe questioned this comp

I’m in the process of writing up a comparison between the two, hopefully on this site later tonight. I don’t think it’s as ridiculous as some people thought (based on the reaction when Dewey first made the comp).

Hopefully it gets some good discussion going

-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Jul 15, 2025 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I would love to read this Jgaz. I remember Dewey getting hammered by the community when he made this comparison. I wonder if they will do the same to others who support it, or if it is a “Dewey Thang”!!!!!!!!!!!!

by King Billy Royal on Jul 15, 2025 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

The level of vitriol seemed to be a lot more intense towards Dewey.

by King Billy Royal on Jul 17, 2025 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

Could you point me to those, because I didn’t really find anything of the sort. RSF made one comment about Jackson/Sizemore in Dewey’s Top 22, but I didn’t see anything else at all there.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Jul 17, 2025 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't know if it's here yet...

..but Mike Moustakas got promoted to AAA.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.

by souldrummer on Jul 15, 2025 5:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Is it just me...

…or are other people really underwhelmed by the look of Trout’s swing? That’s the first video I’ve seen of him, and it looks like a super quick, contact-oriented stroke. I understand projecting more power as he develops, but that doesn’t look like a 20 HR swing to me.

I have no more sophisticated critique to offer. But going by “sometimes you just trust your eyes,” I actually come away from this post lowering his ceiling. Could still be a great player, but I’m going to want to see some pretty serious power production before I buy into the power projections.

by Jaeti on Jul 16, 2025 3:16 AM EDT reply actions  

I take that back

I’ve never once tried to break down a hitter’s mechanics, but I’m popping that cherry right here.

He never really gets his arms extended as the bat comes through the hitting zone. It looks to me like he pulls his hands in, rolls his wrists over quickly/prematurely, and inside-outs the ball. Also, it looks like he “understrides,” by which I mean his stance and leg kick suggest he’s really going to throw his lower half into the swing, but to me it doesn’t look like that actually happens. Looks like he gets his hips too far over his front leg instead of keeping weight back to drive through the ball. The whole process is kind of a tease (to use a real scouting term), if you ask me.

Now, maybe if I saw him in person the wrist action would look more powerful and impressive, and maybe there’s just a crapload of bat speed there that I’m not getting from this video, bat speed that will allow that short stroke to translate into average-to-plus power in a few years. But, right now, I’m skeptical.

by Jaeti on Jul 16, 2025 3:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Never really tryed to evaluate his swing...

but if you are looking for something to go by, try out projectprospect.com who just did a scouting report on Anthony Rendon. Now that kid’s wrist action is impressive. It would give you a better idea of what to look for in a powerful swing.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jul 16, 2025 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just looked at it...

and if you look more closely at his back leg, he actually is using it quite a lot to put power into his swing. His swing is not the way most people teach you how to swing, but there is nothing wrong it that I can see. I actually like it quite alot. What I like most is how short and sweet it is. You should really look at his lower motion again to see that he actaulyl is generating a little bit of power in it which combined with his good bat speed gives him the ability to hit for decent power. His power could also easily get better as he gets stronger.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jul 16, 2025 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

swing

Look again. It’s a very good weight transfer. I think you might be looking too much at that second swing, in which he is clearly surprised. Bat speed looks good already and should only get better as he gets a bit older.

In the video, as you noted, he seems to understride just a tad on a couple of those swings. He also needs to work on firing his wrists, which will allow him to let the ball get deeper in in the zone. Those are issues that should work themselves out with more repetitions and experience. But a lot of this is nitpicking - he’s doing a number of things very well, and his physical talent is obvious. This is clearly not Trout as his best, but that’s the best time to evaluate a player.

by mrkupe on Jul 16, 2025 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair points...

…made by both of you. And again, this was the first time I ever spent more than 15 seconds trying to break a guy’s swing down on even the most elementary level. Not to mention, no matter how good he’s been this year, he is still just a guy in his first year of full-season ball, so of course he’s not a finished product and some of these things can be worked on (if, in fact, any of them even need to be). You can’t argue with his results thus far.

by Jaeti on Jul 17, 2025 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

right

I’m not a fan of saying that a guy’s swing isn’t going to get results if it is in fact getting results. I have little doubt that he’ll hit for average and a strong one at that, even if he has to make some adjustments along the way. The big question is how much power you think he’ll have. I’d love to scout him for a few days to get a better impression of that, but I don’t see it being a problem certainly.

by mrkupe on Jul 17, 2025 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Depends on what you mean by results. In the extreme case, you’ve got a guy like Maybin who is the poster boy for why raw results aren’t everything. Now, Trout has a much stronger statistical profile than Maybin did. Trout has no red flags. Even if he’s doing what he’s currently doing, he’s going to be a Major League center fielder. I’d say his downside right now is what Denard Span is currently doing, and that’s highly impressive from a guy who’s barely cracked A+.

At the same time, I wouldn’t say his statistics are flawless. Adjusting for park and luck on minorleaguesplits (which obviously is the furthest thing from gospel) shaves 160 points off of his OPS. Even if you completely trust the adjustment, he’s still a .285/.385/.440 hitter with extremely good speed and great defensive potential, which is a top 25 prospect no matter how you cut it. But I think the gulf indicates that there is something a bit off with his stats, and his XBH% corresponds to that position.

There are a lot of people drooling over Trout right now, and I certainly see why. Adding his tools + production + projection equals one fantastic prospect. But I’m not quite as high as others are right now. I’ll take the slightly more cautious approach until I see how his power plays in AA.

by limozeen on Jul 17, 2025 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

here's the thing

Compare him to the Upton/Bruce/Maybin/Rasmus/McCutchen outfielder class after their first year in the minors (most of them in the Midwest League). Throw Upton out for obvious reasons (didn’t play to potential). If you adjust for park/luck (which I’m fine with as long as you acknowledge that those are not in fact his real numbers), you still have a package of tools and skills that compares favorably to all of those guys. He’s faster than all of them, he’s a better pure hitter than even McCutchen, he has a sharp eye at the plate, he projects for at least solid average defense in center field . . .yeah, I could go on and on. Anyways, the highest of those guys on the 2007 BA list (a better class than what is currently in the minors) was Maybin at No. 6, the lowest being Rasmus at No. 29. And 2010 Trout is a better prospect than all of those guys, and would’ve rated higher on that list.

You know I tend to be pretty conservative with prospects, but this guy is the real deal.

by mrkupe on Jul 17, 2025 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

The only thing I kept thinking

was that I wish someone would tell him to stop sliding head first. The exciting thing is that he is sort of raw in a lot of aspects, but natural. I’d like to see his load toned down just a bit — no need to take the hands back that far — but the bat speed more than compensates. Can’t wait to see him polished up.

by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 12:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Wouldn't mess with the load...

that could mess him up beyond repair. As long as he keeps hitting that is one of the last parts of his swing you should mess with. It could hinder his timing and so many other aspects of his swing to mess with it. There are a few things that could be tweaked, but honestly I would just let him go and figure out some of the little things for himself.

ETHAN MARTIN!!!!

by joegonzo on Jul 17, 2025 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

He wraps the bat a little in these clips as well

Not a fan of that, but again, easy to clean up, and it’s not like it’s cost him contact. lol

by blackoutyears on Jul 17, 2025 12:26 AM EDT reply actions  

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