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Fantasy Baseball: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

More photos » Christian Petersen - Getty Images

about 1 month ago: SCOTTSDALE AZ - OCTOBER 23: Washington Nationals prospect Bryce Harper #34 playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions hits a single against the Phoenix Desert Dogs during the AZ Fall League game at Scottsdale Stadium on October 23 2010 in Scottsdale Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

I posted a similar article over at Fake Teams, but wanted to get your input on this possible scenario.

In my UBA NL-only keeper league, I have the 2nd pick in the 2 round minor league draft in 2011. For this scenario, with all the Justin Upton trade rumors, lets assume Upton is dealt to the Angels, who are in the market to upgrade their lineup, for a package headlined by Mike Trout.

I know some will think Trout is untouchable, and I have to agree. But, if GM Tony Reagins is given the task of improving the lineup, and owner Arte Moreno really wants Upton, then Trout would almost have to be in the deal.

If you had the first pick in this minor league draft under this scenario, who would you pick: Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. Trout has a good shot at seeing action in the big leagues in 2011, while Harper is probably at least a year away. Assume you are playing to win this year, do you forsake the possible quick impact Trout may provide this year and take Harper? Or do you take Trout?

Oh, and here is a tweet from Keith Law on Harper:

w00t RT @Jason_Grey: Bryce Harper is starting in today's AFL title game and batting 7th#Nationals

Poll
Who do you take with the 1st pick in the minor league draft-Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

  841 votes | Results

Tweet Comment 49 comments  |  Add comment  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

Display:

Mathisrocks

which way are you going to vote?

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Nov 20, 2025 1:55 PM EST reply actions  

That's A Toughy.

Long time lurker, new time poster.

by Lionsroar10 on Nov 21, 2025 6:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Is the OF separated into LF,CF,RF?

If so, I take Trout. If not, Harper.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Nov 20, 2025 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

To piggyback your point

It really depends on league structure. My most important league is of the points dynasty variety where SB’s are basically useless and total bases rules the day. Harper is miles ahead of Trout there, however it also is separated by LF,CF,RF, so that closes the gap for Trout if he can be a .475+ slg type hitter.

by two fishsticks on Nov 20, 2025 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

seems like a slam dunk to me

Trout has actually played in the minors and put up numbers in a full season league, and the difference in fantasy value for players at the different levels of the minors is huge. It’d be hard to say that Harper would be the more valuable fantasy player in the long run even were he to have played in A+ . . .Harper only holds a fantasy edge in the power categories, and Trout holds clear edges in batting average and steals.

There’s no reason to even consider taking Harper over Trout right now.

by mrkupe on Nov 20, 2025 2:00 PM EST reply actions  

The rate that Angels hitting prospects seem to miss gives me pause

I love Trout but the failings of Kotchman, McPherson, Kendrick, and Wood give me some pause when it comes to believing the hype on Angels hitting prospects.

by King Billy Royal on Nov 20, 2025 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh.

I think it’s silly to hold a player’s organization against them unless there’s something you can point to that they do that actively inhibits the growth of their prospects. Remember, the Angels organization has also graduated quality major leaguers Mike Napoli, Kendry Morales, Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar, and Maicer Izturis during the time they supposedly couldn’t develop a hitting prospect. Sean Rodriguez, Alberto Callaspo, and Alexi Casilla all came through the Angels system before eventually contributing elsewhere, too.

A couple of the big names never became what people thought they would, but LAA’s hardly been snakebit when it comes to producing young major leaguers. And Kendrick’s not exactly a bust, with quality 2B defense and a career 101 WRC+.

by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2025 10:12 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

And by "came through the Angels system"

Callaspo and Rodriguez both made it to AAA before finding MLB success elsewhere. Casilla was a lower minors guy, though the Angels gave him a few cups of coffee at higher levels in 2005, probably to showcase him.

by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2025 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

You don't consider Napoli a top hitter?

Really?

And I agree completely with slamcactus here.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by jar75 on Nov 21, 2025 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Weird.

Kendry Morales started his affiliated career at 22, the same age as many college draftees get their first reps in the minors. He amassed 1,311 PAs over the better part of four minor league seasons with the Angels before becoming a major leaguer.

Mike Napoli is a catcher with a career .357 wOBA.

Chone Figgins is hit .293/.363/.388 during his time with LAA. That’s a comfortably above average offensive performance from a guy who played multiple defensive positions well (and played 3B at an elite level).

Izturis is a super-utility who’s a defensive asset at 2B, 3B, AND SS, who’s put up a WRC+ of 98 and been worth 9.2 WAR in parts of six seasons. For comparison’s sake, in a similar number of games and PAs (88 more PAs, but a few less games), Billy Butler has been worth 6.4 WAR.

Aybar is a decent-hitting SS who can play the position and whose offensive value rests on his BABIP. Even in a down year he was worth 1 WAR, and in good years he’s been worth as many as 3.

Napoli and Morales may be the only two impact bats for fantasy purposes, but these position players are no slouches.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

So what you're saying is...

That the Angels have had some successes and some failures with respect to developing young players (a difficult process to predict in the very best circumstances). Remarkably similar to most, if not all, major league teams.

Funny how that works out… ;-).

by TheQuestforMerlin on Nov 21, 2025 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly.

Thank you.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

don't really see the comparison

slamcactus hit a lot of the major points, but the other thing is: none of those guys is remotely similar to Trout. If Trout fails, it’s going to be for reasons entirely different from the things that have hampered those other players.

by mrkupe on Nov 21, 2025 12:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Kendrick was very similar to Trout

Good speed, unreal average, and he showed even more homerun power then Trout.

by King Billy Royal on Nov 21, 2025 1:42 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not the biggest Trout fan in the world

but his plate discipline is so far ahead of Kendrick it’s not even funny. Trout walked 73 times in 131 games this year. Kendrick walked 84 times in 399 minor league games.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Nov 21, 2025 3:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, that's a ridiculous comment.

In Howie Kendrick’s age-18 season, he failed to hit a single home run in the Arizona League. Trout hit 10 between the MWL and the Cali league. Kendrick hit 10 home runs in his MWL debut, but he was two years older than Trout was last year, and he didn’t jump a level like Trout did. The first year Kendrick “showed more homerun power” was his age-21 season split between A+ and AA. Trout will play at those levels next year as a 19 year old. By age 21 he’ll likely be either in AAA or the majors. There’s no doubt in my mind that three full seasons from now, Trout will be able to hit 19 home runs between the Cal League and the Texas League. He may hit fewer home runs his age-21 season, but it’ll be because he’s in AAA or the majors.

Kendrick’s speed wasn’t anything on the level of Trout’s. He developed some good baserunning instincts, but as runners, Trout’s light years ahead.

Ditto defense. Kendrick’s a mediocre 2B and always has been. Trout’s a plus defensive CF.

Gatling already pointed out Trout’s huge advantage in batting eye.

They’re not “very similar.” They’re not even slightly similar. Both players had good hit tools. That’s pretty much it. That’s like saying Bryce Harper is “very similar” to Carlos Peguero, because both players are lefthanded, decent but not great athletes, and have mammoth raw power. The comp is silly.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

On defense...

Kendrick’s not a butcher. By mediocre I mean ~average. Not plus, not a liability.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

grades

Trout looks much better from a scouting perspective. Kendrick probably graded similarly as far as hitting for average goes, but Trout beats him everywhere else, including a huge difference on defense. He’s also able to put his offensive tools to work effectively without the hyper-aggressive approach that Kendrick has always possessed.

by mrkupe on Nov 21, 2025 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Also...

Kendrick’s the one of that group of premier Angels prospects from circa 2003-2004 who wasn’t a bust.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not saying Trout isn't a great prospect

I am just saying that I like Harper more. Personally I see his possible 50 homerun seasons having more of a fantasy impact where defense doesn’t play a factor and OFs slots are not usually broken down by LF, CF, RF.

by King Billy Royal on Nov 21, 2025 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Harper with 50 HRs?

we will know more come mid-2011 as to what type of power hitter he will be. But he appears to have a very solid power/speed game that will make him very valuable for fantasy purposes.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 21, 2025 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

in this scenario

I agree with taking Trout….but LT….Harper may be more valuable. Obviously, once we get a full season of stats from Harper in A ball, we will have a better feel for how valuable he will be for fantasy purposes.
He will be closely watched in his first full season in pro ball, with scouts looking for even minor flaws in his game.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 21, 2025 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

For fantasy purposes

I think that as of right now, Trout is the higher value in terms of production already received. While Harper could be better, Trout has already shown that he can do it at a pair of minor league levels (albeit lower ones).

But I am a huge proponent of floating it to a league that Harper could be had, and see what offers you could conceivably receive. There is almost always somebody in a dynasty league that will overpay for the super-hype of someone like Harper.

Could be worse - in my main dynasty league, the same owner has the rights to Trout, Harper, and Strasburg (from last year’s draft).

Jason's Baseball Blog

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Writer at FakeTeams

by Jason Hunt on Nov 22, 2025 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

neck and neck

good debate.

by BryceHarper on Nov 20, 2025 2:26 PM EST reply actions  

Trout.

Harper will hit more HRs and will hit in the middle of the order, but Trout should end up no slouch in the power department and he could swipe 50 bags annually playing for the uber-aggressive Angels. Power/Speed combo FTW.

by slamcactus on Nov 20, 2025 10:04 PM EST reply actions  

Is Trout really close to making the majors in 2011

Are you talking September call ups or any time before that? Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t Trout just in A+ ball for 1-2 months, and didn’t even make it to AA? Are the Angels planning on starting him in AA?

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Nov 21, 2025 5:54 AM EST reply actions  

well

seeing that Trout (born August 7, 2025) is only 10 months older than Harper (born October 16, 2025), has a more rounded skill set (the speed and D and OPS), plays for an organization that can afford to be patient with him and has actually PLAYED professional baseball successfully you’d HAVE to take Trout THIS YEAR.

as for next year, all bets are off. but Trout has proven that he’s a very very special player.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Nov 21, 2025 6:25 AM EST up reply actions  

In a world...

where Harper’s hitting .260/.340/.520 and Trout’s hitting .300/.400/.500

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

which part?

I gave Harper an ISO 10 points below Adam Dunn’s in that “conservative” projection. Adam Dunn with fewer walks doesn’t seem to me a completely unreasonable middle-ground projection for Harper, and Trout absolutely has .300/.400/.500 potential.

I don’t know that I’d call it a more likely than not scenario, but Trout absolutely projects to hit for a higher batting average, and he’s demonstrated elite plate discipline against older competition.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

you cant go conservative with harper

and then ultra aggressive with the trout projection, which you did and then use that to give trout an OPS advantage

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Nov 21, 2025 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

the harper middle ground projection is totally reasonable....

but 300/400/500 for trout is like 90%ile projection

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Nov 21, 2025 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't agree with that.

Trout’s upside gets undersold significantly around here. .300/.400/.500 is a lofty projection, but I don’t think it’s 90th percentile. Trout’s in the conversation for #1 prospect in the game because he’s got upside comparable to someone like Josh Hamilton, or Grady Sizemore with a better batting average. He’s that good.

Harper will have the ISO advantage, but Trout will very likely have a significant OBP advantage, and should be no slouch in the power department.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

he's #1 prospect b/c 3/4/5 is POSSIBLE

to go along with spectacular defense in CF and crazy amounts of steals.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Nov 21, 2025 5:17 PM EST up reply actions  

3/4/5 with good CF defense and the ability to run would be incredible

That’d have similar value to Carl Crawford this year with and extra 45 points of OBP. If Trout does that he’s an ~8 WAR player. I agree, that’s not anywhere close to median. Fairly close to a reasonable ceiling for him.

by nixa37 on Nov 21, 2025 6:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, reasonable ceiling.

I’d call 3/4/5 something like Trout’s 80th percentile ceiling. I really think he’s got the potential for some Mauer-like seasons where he’s significantly better than that, though.

I obviously wouldn’t call it a median projection, but then again, I don’t think .260/.340/.520 is exactly a median projection for Harper either. It’s a pretty huge leap of faith to give Harper Adam Dunn’s ISO and project him for a high enough walk rate to put up an .080 ISOd in the majors before we have any real inkling of what his approach is like or how well he’ll grow into his frame.

I think that both of my projections are pretty optimistic, but I’m not convinced that 3/4/5 for Trout is any more of a longshot than .260/.340/.520 for Harper. I may have given the 65th percentile projection for Harper and the 80th percentile projection for Trout, but I think Trout’s also a significantly better bet to reach his ceiling than Harper is, which IMO makes the discrepancy justifiable.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Honestly I don't think that's optimistic at all for Harper

How many guys in our lifetime’s have ever been this good at this age? Guys like that tend to become at least very good players. Let’s keep things in perspective here. He put up unheard of numbers for his JC league during what should have been his junior year of high school. He more than held his own in the AFL while he should be getting ready for his senior season. I honestly don’t even know what to make of it.

by nixa37 on Nov 21, 2025 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

2011 is optimistic. He'll start in either AA or A+ this year.

I’d say he’ll debut in 2012, and his performance will dictate whether he gets a real look or just a cup of coffee.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

2011

I think we need to see what the Angels do this offseason in the free agent market before we can say Trout will/will not have a fantasy impact in 2011. Scioscia loves him, and he is a perfect Scioscia type player, so it is reasonable to think he can see some action before September.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 21, 2025 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure it's reasonable...

to expect Trout to dominate AA as a 19-year-old (or master both AA and AAA in half a season) such that calling him up at midseason is a justifiable move. Remember, chances are Trout starts back in the Cali league. The Angels aren’t super aggressive with their young guys.

by slamcactus on Nov 21, 2025 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

let me clear this up

so the new writer is already trolling for fantasy advice? not the kind of contribution i expected.

by son.of.sourman on Nov 21, 2025 3:18 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

trolling?

what?

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 21, 2025 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I am asking for opinions

how is that trolling? I already stated I would draft Trout since he is closer to the big leagues imo.
I think it is a reasonable question to ask since both prospects will be ranked very high in 2011.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
www.minorleagueball.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 21, 2025 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Some People Here

Get really pissy when it comes to fantasy news. I think they’re just upset they lost their league this year.

Long time lurker, new time poster.

by Lionsroar10 on Nov 21, 2025 6:57 PM EST up reply actions  

What?

Ray is writing from a fantasy perspective. How is what he doing considered trolling?

by King Billy Royal on Nov 21, 2025 9:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I think with overall talent almost even

that is, both players will be star players, that are of almost equal value to their teams (Harper has the clear edge in power, Trout in speed and plate discipline), I think you have to look at their psychological makeup as a tiebreaker. And I think its clear that Trout blows away Harper in this category. Everyone who’s ever met Trout seems to have liked the guy, while Harper seems to have the exact opposite effect on people. That may end up being important, especially if Harper’s immaturity hampers his development.

Friend:why do you love ripping on Jeff Francoeur?
Me: Because hes an idiot, who posseses huge physical tools but will not, nay, cannot, harness those tools into any sembelance of usable baseball skill and refuses to make any effort to do so. Hes like a tragic greek figure. doomed by his own stupidity and 80 raw power.

by harendaman365 on Nov 22, 2025 3:52 AM EST reply actions  

Everyone hated Barry Bonds

People who meet Harper are convinced that he wants to be the an all-time great baseball player. He seems to be completely focused on that. I’ll take a kid like that on my team everyday.

I also don’t think people dislike Harper to the extent you think. I’m sure some people are jealous of a 17/18 year old getting this much attention and having this much success. I’m sure the deserved confidence it has caused him to build rubs some people the wrong way as well. Its not something I’m going to hold against someone his age.

by nixa37 on Nov 22, 2025 10:06 AM EST up reply actions  


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