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Derek Holland Community Projection Results

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Community Projection Result: Derek Holland

We had 19 entries. The tally:

29 games, 24 starts, 1 complete game, 149 innings pitched, 81 runs, 74 earned, 4.46 ERA, 130/52 K/BB, 144 hits allowed, 21 homers, 10-8 record.

Comparisons to other projection systems:

Minor League Ball:    4.46 ERA, 7.85 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 8.70 H/9, 149 IP
CHONE Projection:   4.71 ERA,  7.03 K/9, 3.17 BB/9, 9.6 H/9,  105 IP
Marcel Projection:     5.12 ERA, 7.14 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 9.70 H/9,  116 IP
Fangraphs Fans:       4.34 ERA, 7.68 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, 10.87 H/9, 164 IP
ZIPS Projection:        5.15 ERA, 6.31 K/9, 3.73 BB/9, 9.61 H/9, 147 IP

As you can see, the Minor League Ball Community Projection is more optimistic than CHONE, Marcel, and ZIPS, especially when it comes to Holland's hit rate. Either the community is a lot more optimistic about the Rangers defense, or you guys expect Holland's BABIP to improve for some other reason. Interestingly, the Fangraphs Fan projection (another community-style projection that tries to use the "wisdom of crowds") is also more optimistic than the computery outcomes.

My own projection (which I included in the community aggregate) was 19 games, 18 starts, 98 innings, 55 runs, 51 earned, 4.69, 90/40 K/BB, 105 hits, 14 homers, 5-7 record.