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Brian Matusz Community Projection Results

Community Projection Results: Brian Matusz

We only had 12 entries for this one, which surprised me given that Orioles fans tend to be a vocal lot. The results:

28 games, 28 starts, zero complete games, 164 innings, 81 runs, 73 earned, 3.98 ERA, 145/57 K/BB ratio, 160 hits allowed, 16 homers, 12-8 record, 7.96 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 8.78 H/9.

Comparing to the results of other systems:

Comparing to the results of other systems:


CHONE: 100 innings, 4.59 ERA, 80/38 K/BB, 103 hits, 13 homers, 5-6 record, 7.20 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 9.27 H/9
Marcel:    82 innings, 4.39 ERA, 68/28 K/BB, 85 hits, 10 homers, 6-4 record, 7.46 K/9, 3.07BB/9, 9.33 H/9
FanGraphs: 154 innings, 3.94 ERA, 141/47 K/BB, 168 hits, 18 homers, 11-8 record, 8.24 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 9.82 H/9
ZIPS Proj: 154 innings, 4.69 ERA, 118/61 K/BB, 163 hits, 15 homers, 10-11 record, 6.91 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, 9.53 H/9
PECOTA mean: 147 innings, 4.61 ERA, 114/56 K/BB, 156 hits, 21 homers, 8-8 record, 6.98 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, 9.55 H/9.

As you can see, our community projection is much more optimistic than the others, excessively so in my opinion. We will see who is right, but with just 10 entries I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the community numbers.