i saw pedro top out at 88 at times ten years ago. and if you dont believe me . watch more games

Seriously, the guy had incredible potential, but was strictly a thrower, not a pitcher until he was developed by the Mariners with help from HOF pitchers.

Dunn played in a cavern last season, and he almost hit 40 again last year.

I agree on him maybe never hitting 20, which is why 15 as a rookie seems like a lot imo. Plus, where’s he going to get enough AB’s with Molina back. If you could actually find a Vegas-style O/U on Posey’s 2010 HR’s, it would probably be about 7.5.

realistically he’s going to play between 120-140 in a season. On top of that, Posey won’t be in the MLB until June or even July. I just don’t see the Giants handing over the reigns to Posey just yet. When I think of Posey’s power I think of 12-17 homers, 20-25 homers in his prime. Even then those numbers may be skewed since he plays in the cavern that is a ball park in SF.

There is way more than this anyway (and San Jose doesnt help for HRs anyway)

-He doesnt have a power swing. His swing plane is a line drive plane and the power he has comes from bat speed and solid contact. Its hard to regularly get 20+ that way.

-He’s 6-1, 205 lbs and 23 yo. This isnt a toolsy HS kid. He went to a major college program and has been working out regularly for years. How much bigger and stronger do you expect him to get?

-He only hit for power 1 year in college and it has ALWAYS BEEN AN ISSUE FOR HIM. This was always the knock on Posey… the hysteria just took over for a while and people overlooked it.

Reminds me of the Seinfeld episode:

“Listen to this. Marcy comes over and she tells me that her ex-boyfriend was over late last night and ‘yada yada yada I’m really tired today.’ You don’t think she’d yada yada sex?”
“I’ve yada yada’d sex.”
“Really?”
“Yeah. I met this lawyer, we went out to dinner, I had the lobster bisque, we went back to my place, yada yada yada, I never heard from him again.”
“But you yada yada’d over the best part.”
“No, I mentioned the bisque.”

- George, Elaine, and Jerry, in “The Yada Yada”

“I gotta tell you, I am loving this yada yada thing. I can gloss over my whole life story.”

- George, in “The Yada Yada”

Alskor pretty much stole my thunder. Basically, he will be hitting in a cavernous park that only Barry Bonds has consistently hit for power in, and Posey is a GB hitter. Posey is one of those cases were those HRs will basically turn into 2Bs thanks to transitioning from a hitter-friendly environment in the minors to a pitcher-friendly environment in the majors.

Inconsistent is a better word. Randy Johnson-esque would be a crap-your-pants-laughable comp for it, though.

switch-hitting first basemen.

but many were worried A. he’d demand 50M and B. that he relied too heavily on his FB in college because he could dominate his opponents w/ 100MPH gas. If i remember, some scouts were afraid his secondary pitches were too weak to give him the type of money he got(or especially what he was rumored to want).

Once again, I may be wrong, but Im pretty sure Im not…

In 2000, Kendall hit 33 doubles, 6 triples and 14 HRs. He was having an even better season in 1999 when he suffered that broken/dislocated leg.

If Martin can get more rest(I believe he has the most games played at C since he came into the majors) and go back to his approach that brought him to the majors(Mattingly changed his approach when he came, which lead to his offensive decline, IMO)

On defense, Posey isnt going to be as good as Martin… Martin was rated the 2nd best defensive catcher mid season last year, after Y. Molina

But Kendall didn’t go to college and Posey was a polished college hitter. Comparing their minor league stats like this doesn’t work the best. A better way would be comparing them at the same age in pro ball. The only age that lines up is 22, which as you noted Posey had a .421 OBP in the minors, while Kendall posted a .372 OBP as a rookie starting catcher in the bigs. Nod to Kendall.

it’s just similar which I find kind of funny.