Community Prospect #53
With 19.4% of the vote, Chris Withrow is elected Community Prospect #52.
1. Jason Heyward - 51%
2. Stephen Strasburg - 76%
3. Buster Posey - 20% (43% runoff)
4. Michael Stanton - 20% (54% runoff)
5. Jesus Montero - 20% (45% runoff)
6. Brian Matusz - 21%
7. Pedro Alvarez - 23%
8. Desmond Jennings - 29%
9. Carlos Santana -37% (50% runoff)
10. Neftali Feliz -37% (50% runoff)
11. Justin Smoak - 46%
12. Domonic Brown - 23% (59% runoff)
13. Madison Bumgarner - 30%
14. Martin Perez - 28%
15. Dustin Ackley - 31%
16. Chris Carter - 33.6%
17. Jeremy Hellickson - 29.4%
18. Michael Taylor - 36.9%
19. Alcides Escobar - 37.0%
20. Christian Friedrich - 29.0%(53.2% runoff)
21. Logan Morrison - 45.6%
22. Ryan Westmoreland - 24.7%
23. Aroldis Chapman - 32.0%
24. Wade Davis - 40.8%
25. Fernando Martinez - 30.5%
26. Aaron Hicks - 33.3%
27. Kyle Drabek - 34.0%
28. Lonnie Chisenhall - 24.5%
29. Jenrry Mejia - 18.8%(51.6% runoff)
30. Yonder Alonso - 25.5%
31. Matt Moore - 19.0%(70.7% runoff)
32. Brett Wallace - 24.3%
33. Dan Hudson - 20.2%
34. Freddie Freeman - 17.4%
35. Jhoulys Chacin - 21.2%
36. Casey Kelly - 27.8%
37. Casey Crosby - 29.8%
38. Starlin Castro - 27.5%
39. Brett Lawrie - 18.4% (42.9% runoff)
40. Derek Norris - 17.3% (42.9% runoff)
41. Tyler Flowers - 20.2%
42. Tyler Matzek -22.7%
43. Jacob Turner - 23.0%
44. Michael Montgomery - 30.8%
45. Dee Gordon - 22%
46. Julio Teheran - 19.4%
47. Grant Green - 24.4%
48. Hector Rondon - 20.9%
49. Josh Bell - 22.4%
50. Jaff Decker - 22.3%
51. Michael Saunders - 22.6%
Players will get 1 round on the poll as a tester, if they fail to draw 5% they will then be removed and sit out up to 3 rounds.
Players off the poll(will sit out up to 3 rounds): Jiovanni Mier(#52-3.1%), Ryan Kalish(#52-4.1%), Josh Vitters(#52-3.1%), Todd Frazier(#51-0%), Thomas Neal(#51-2.2%), Mike Moustakas(#50-1.1%), Jarrod Parker(#50-4.3%), Simon Castro(#50-0%), Matt Dominguez(#50-2.1%), Jared Mitchell(#49-4.4%), Wil Myers(#49-1.1%), Zach Britton(#49-3.2%)
Tester pool: Josh Reddick, Ike Davis, Miguel Sano, James Darnell, Ethan Martin, Shelby Miller, Jay Jackson
The candidates with previous round vote %:
Jake Arrieta 9.2%
Donovan Tate
Arodys Vizcaino 8.2%
Tim Beckham 5.1%
Jordan Lyles 13.3%
Jason Castro 10.2%
Tanner Scheppers 12.2%
Aaron Crow 7.1%
Over 130 AB/50 IP cutoff for eligibility
Please vote using the +1 system, not the rec system. Rec'd votes will not be counted in this poll, only actual posts with +1.
3 recs |
123 comments
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Comments
Vote with a +1 here for Jake Arrieta
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:17 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
He’s only one spot behind Kalish on my list, I’d rather my vote go to someone with a chance of winning this round.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects | OriolesProspects Forum
by ravensfan3 on Feb 10, 2026 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Baseball America ranked the Minnesota Twins as the 7th best minor league Org. in Baseball !!!! - that is good news...
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 11, 2026 1:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."
by nothinlikethetown on Feb 11, 2026 6:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
by wickedwitch on Feb 11, 2026 9:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Jiovanni Mier
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:17 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Sorry, this should be Donovan Tate not Mier
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
+1
if this is supposed to be Tate
by walnut falcons on Feb 11, 2026 2:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Zach Stewart
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:18 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Alex Colome
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:18 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Arodys Vizcaino
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:18 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Feb 11, 2026 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Brett Jackson
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:18 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
either Jackson or Crow for me
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 10, 2026 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Tim Beckham
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:18 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
I want to see Malcom Floyd in Pewter and Red next season!
by thedudeofdudes on Feb 10, 2026 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Jeez, this site is tough on the guy.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 11, 2026 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Jordan Lyles
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:19 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
by winchester5 on Feb 10, 2026 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
by strums on Feb 11, 2026 8:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Feb 11, 2026 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Jason Castro
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:20 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Tanner Scheppers
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:20 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Feb 10, 2026 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
by t ball on Feb 11, 2026 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Feb 11, 2026 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Feb 11, 2026 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 here for Aaron Crow
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:21 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+1
FINALLY
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Feb 11, 2026 8:04 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
by 306008 on Feb 11, 2026 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vote with a +1 and name here for anyone not listed above
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:21 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1 Thomas Neal
Not quite montero at bat, but at least he can play the field. OK, that was just a catchy pitch. But I think his bat is real.
by wobatus on Feb 10, 2026 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 Jared Mitchell
Sticking with my guy.
Disagree pretty strongly with the last 4 or so guys that got on… but hey, where are the part of the list where we shouldn’t be surprised to see big divergences of opinion.
by alskor on Feb 10, 2026 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 Jiovanni Mier
Guess I’ll keep wasting my vote. I feel John’s grade really swayed people. I see a shortstop with plus defense, average power and speed (but above average baserunning), an average contact skill, and a plus approach at the plate. Could definatley see some power developing, particularly in comparison to the other SS at the top of prospect lists. I wouldn’t bet against him being Reid Brignac with good plate discipline, and that is a very valuable player IMO.
by Navi's_Navy on Feb 10, 2026 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im just not sold on the bat.
Average power is really the best case scenario still.
51 Appy league games isn’t enough to sway me. It certainly changed my opinion of him (I didnt think he would hit at all before) - but not enough to make him a top 100 guy (He’s a near miss and is top 120).
by alskor on Feb 10, 2026 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have him 33 on my list
He is a top notch defensive prospect and controls the strikezone well. I see Jack Wilson as a reasonable expectation with potential for more, but clearly potential for less. Obviously there are some questions about his ability to make contact enough at higher levels, and if you don’t think power will develop then its understandable, but I see a high floor guy with 3 at least average skills (average contact bat, average power, average speed) with plus fielding and discipline and above average baserunning. I’m not sure the contact will ever develop, but I think he has the body to add a bit of power, and I just don’t see him busting.
For what its worth, most reports have him as projectible for a bit more power at worst (double digits in home runs is in no way out of the question) with excellent mechanics and a good “feel for the game”. I personally put little stock into it, but given his track record it seems off field issues wont arise, I just see a lot to like.
Where do you have him among SS?
by Navi's_Navy on Feb 11, 2026 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have him #104 overall
Which would be the 7th SS, if you assume (as I do) that Miguel Jean (Sano) and Wilmer Flores won’t stay at SS.
So for me, he’s behind Dee Gordon, Starlin Castro, Jurickson Profar, Grant Green, Alcides Escobar, Jose Iglesias and Hak-Ju Lee(though very close in rankings to Escobar, Iglesias and Lee).
I like Mier as a guy who can be above average both in the field and at the plate, but in some ways to me he’s the SS version of Jason Castro’s projection - not an impact player, just a solid regular.
I think Gordon, Castro and Profar all clearly project better and as potential impact guys (took me a while to come around on Castro, but Ive warmed up). Green is the same, but to a lesser extent. Escobar and Iglesias are both spectacular with the glove compared to Mier being above average. I think we can expect AVGs and power in the same neighborhood as Mier from those two, with Mier having the best approach of the three - and even then, Mier is a bit of a lunger at the plate, and that worries me about how he will handle advanced pitching and breaking stuff. Lee is very similar to Mier, but with slightly better tools across the board other than power and plus plus speed. I think Lee projects very similar to Mier.
I have Escobar, Iglesias, Lee and and Mier all very close (within 14 spots of each other - Escobar #90, Iglesias #99, Lee #101) and I consider them roughly similar as prospects, though obviously Escobar and Iglesias have very similar skill sets while Mier and Lee are slightly different and have lesser gloves (though still plus), better approaches and more well rounded games(though roughly the same power).
by alskor on Feb 11, 2026 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow, thats interesting
I think we see a similar player, but just value certain skillsets more than others. I have him #3 after Escobar and Green, but I truthfully think my own high rating of Escobar (#25) is more the expectation by others that he is that good. I agree on Gordon, and less on Castro as my gut tells me he moves off the position (I’m pretty high on Hak-Ju-Lee).
I generally seem to be higher on SS that you as I have Escobar, Green, Mier, Gordon, Castro, and Brignac all in the top 50 with Beckham, Lee, and Iglesias probably before 75 (haven’t gotten this far. Iglesias might fall a bit, but I really like Lee). I have both Castro and Gordon in the late 40s as I feel Gordon has a chance of not developing power which could hurt his improving discipline, and if Castro moves off then his value takes a hit.
by Navi's_Navy on Feb 11, 2026 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can see him 80-90
I would probably even have Tim Beckham ahead of him, though I think Beckham is most likely to move to 2B, I think he also has the better bat.
I also see guys like Tate, Trout, and Myers in the discussion just ahead of him, as all also have some premium defensive value, and I think a bit more offensive upside. Though the Appy League really is a bit better level of competition than the other rookie leagues, and thus Mier’s performance there is also arguably a bit more impressive than what Trout or Myers did this year. But I don’t want to put too much weight on numbers at that level.
by acerimusdux on Feb 11, 2026 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry it took so long
I had the worst time trying to get this to publish, took 2 and a half hours before it finally went thru. I will fix the links later on the few players that got messed up.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 9:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No problem.
You’re doing a great job.
www.oriolesprospects.com | twitter @orioleprospects | OriolesProspects Forum
by ravensfan3 on Feb 10, 2026 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
please don't let Castro win this
vote Crow.
by daveh33 on Feb 11, 2026 12:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why?
I’ve been voting Castro ever since Bell got on. The kid has a pretty high floor, in that at worst he should be a leage-average catcher.
Crow, on the other hand, has people questioning his mechanics, his severe velo drop at the end of his junior year, and his lackluster performance in indy ball last year. IMO, there are way too many questions about Crow to put him on right now. He belongs more in the 60-75 range.
by guru4u on Feb 11, 2026 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I can't speak for him
but for me, Castro looks like a solid regular type at best. There are still some guys left with decent floors and plenty of impact potential.
IMO, voting sure things with relatively low ceilings over guys with guys who can be difference makers. I know not everyone agrees with me, but when I look back at old lists having guys like Jeff Mathis, John Buck or Scott Hairston high over guys like Matt Kemp or Chase Utley bothers me a hell of a lot more than if I listed a toolsy guy high who ended up busting. For instance Wily Mo Pena.
This isnt at all to say I completely ignore floor… but I cant in good conscience vote Castro on here over guys like Jared Mitchell - who has a pretty damn good chance to end up twice that ballplayer Castro could be. Hell, if you give me my choice of catchers on the board - Wil Myers or Jason Castro - Im absolutely taking Myers and his potential middle of the order bat.
Castro actually is coming up soon on my list (or rather should be listed at #73 on my list) but there are so many guys I wouldnt have voted for still on this list that I doubt I’ll be voting for him until the mid 80’s.
by alskor on Feb 11, 2026 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thank you
it’s really pretty simple. Castro has the lowest ceiling of any option right now…. and like alskor said, floor certainly does matter, but if this is where people are putting Castro, then they are putting far too much influence on floor.
by daveh33 on Feb 11, 2026 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ack
IMO, voting sure things with relatively low ceilings over guys with guys who can be difference makers.
IMO, voting sure things with relatively low ceilings over guys who can be difference makers is a mistake
Id like to add this -
Now, we can sit here and say Castro is a safer choice than Mitchell. Sure, I’ll give you that. Yet, to sit here and act like Castro is a sure thing and Mitchell is a long shot misses the point. ALL PROSPECTS ARE INHERENTLY RISKY. Its one of the rules of the game. Theyre human beings, not data sets… and to think we can minimize risk to a high degree is the height of hubris, IMHO. The past has shown our risk assessments are far, far less accurate than we would believe. I find our assessment of tools to be much more reliable than our assessment of risk (though both are pretty unreliable).
by alskor on Feb 11, 2026 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Castro is arguably the best (legitimate prospect) defensive catcher in the minors.
If we give a rough assumption he is 10 defensively, along with his 12.5 run postional adjustment, someone like Montero who is bound to DH would have to provide 40 batting runs at DH to equal Castro’s value. Best defense at the best position is saying a lot, and the only reason I don’t have him above Alcides Escobar (among others) is becuase there is still not enough good objective analysis of catcher defense. I think some of the power at A (.208 ISOp) was a mirage, but he isn’t so helpless in that regard that he can be exploited. His frame is certainly allowing for a few more pounds and to possibly add a bit of power.
He makes good contact, should put up BB rates upwards of 10%, and in his peak could put up 15-20 home run power.
.275/.350/.410 with gold glove defense at catcher (and a high chance of hitting that mark) is definatley valuable. Could hit .315/.390/.460 as an absolute perfect world peak and could hit .255/.310/.345 at his worst. He is still a serviceable major leaguer regardless, and while he is a safe choice, I don’t think this is bad for him at all. He keeps moving around the early-mid 30s for me, and I would be voting for him if Mier was on.
by Navi's_Navy on Feb 11, 2026 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
See, that description really doesn't sound at all what I would look for in a top 40 guy.
Not sure where you’re getting this “best defensive catcher in the minors” thing from. He’s up there for me, but Im not sure he’s the best as much as (like most of his game) above average.
Castro is solid behind the plate in every regard. He has a solid-average arm and makes accurate throws, recording 2.0-second pop times thanks to his athleticism, quick release and footwork. He threw out 45 percent of basestealers last season. He has soft hands and receives the ball well.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2010/269175.html
He’s a very good receiver with above-average arm strength
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10008
Plus, as you note, catcher defense - while valuable - isnt something we should put a lot of stock in. The difference between the best and worst doesnt account for a whole lot of value. Even then, Im far from sold Castro projects as a gold glove caliber guy. His throwing isnt all that great (seen it described multiple times as “mechanical”) and he still needs to polish some aspects of his receiving game.
I think most of his performance at Lancaster was a mirage. Lancaster is a joke. I see 10-15 HR power. .460 SLG is a crazy high projection IMO.
Here are more quotes from BA and BP:
When asked about Castro, one scout put it best by saying, “I have little bad to say, but nothing about him excited me, either.”
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10008
While Castro doesn’t have one overwhelming tool, he’s solid in nearly every phase of the game. He profiles as an average to a tick above-average starting catcher in the big leagues, along the lines of an A.J. Pierzynski, who is a similarly built, lefthanded hitting catcher.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2010/269175.html
I see a guy who looks like maybe a .280/350/420 kind of guy with above average defense. I do like his swing and could maybe see some more power. BA says 10-15, too fwiw. Lets see him away from Lancaster and the Cal League first.
That’s not top 50 for me. #73 on my list. Very good prospect, but no real star/impact potential here.
by alskor on Feb 11, 2026 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh, I know .460 is a crazy high projection
its his perfect world, I think .280/.350/.420 with his defense is a very good player merting a spot in the 25-40 range. We see the same player, just value the different aspects differently.
by Navi's_Navy on Feb 11, 2026 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think you're really overstating the "questions" about Crow
the velocity was fine in indy ball (lackluster? wat? ERA of 1 and a 17/5 k/bb in 17 innings!!) and in the fall league at 91-94. with great movement and he can command it. just a really good fastball all around. and he improve his changeup quite a bit. already has a really good slider also.
if there is a qualm, yes it’s the mechanics, but he’s still a potential front line starter.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Feb 11, 2026 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
His mechanics really don’t bother me much. In fact, I think I like Crow’s mechanics more than I like the two other college arms from this last draft that ended up in the AL - Gibson and White.
by alskor on Feb 11, 2026 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1 Ike Davis
Can’t believe I just said that….
Baseball America ranked the Minnesota Twins as the 7th best minor league Org. in Baseball !!!! - that is good news...
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 11, 2026 1:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
getting close to his time
He’ll be battling Mike jacobs for Buffalo time. :)
by wobatus on Feb 11, 2026 7:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh
I can’t believe you said that either. I’d rather see Ben Revere.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
by strums on Feb 11, 2026 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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